Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

Marriage; that's a different sort of nightmare ;)

Yes, the magical kind where everything is wonderful and smells like potpourri.  And angels singing.  There's a lot of that, too.

Eaglefan344

Eaglefan344 said:

Road plates 7280 & 7281 state "call to check availability" on S@H and have been decreasing by about 4 cents a day on Amazon...

Now on backorder. Retiring set paranoia is real. Almost bought a ton of them. 

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

SumoLego said:

Pitfall69 said:

Marriage; that's a different sort of nightmare ;)

Yes, the magical kind where everything is wonderful and smells like potpourri.  And angels singing.  There's a lot of that, too.

DEFINITELY Different kinds of magic...

All I recall is the smell of Sulphur and the wailing of harpies, though yes, there was a lot of that.

Tkatt

Eaglefan344 said:

Road plates 7280 & 7281 state "call to check availability" on S@H and have been decreasing by about 4 cents a day on Amazon...

It would be amazing if Lego retired the current 2 pack of mixed road plates and started selling them individually. 

gmonkey76

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

Pitfall69 said:

It's crazy, I had a dream last night that I was at a Target and they had a bunch of The Zombies sets and I didn't buy any. 

#9465?
Welcome to my EXACT reality!  Australian Targets were one of the few places to get them. I did pick up one at very initial release (thinking that It looked cool). By the time it was evident that it would be a star, they disappeared in the blink of an eye...

It is because of #9465 that I buy limited/exclusive sets as soon as I can. I only saw #9465 for about a month, and buy the time I recovered from a cross country move it was gone. I don't remember how much I paid for it on the aftermarket, but I finally got one a few years later.

PapaBear

Tkatt said:

Eaglefan344 said:

Road plates 7280 & 7281 state "call to check availability" on S@H and have been decreasing by about 4 cents a day on Amazon...

It would be amazing if Lego retired the current 2 pack of mixed road plates and started selling them individually. 

Wouldn't life be grand?  I don't know if @SumoLego has nightmares about those, but I sure do.

PapaBear

Pitfall69 said:

^That is probably the reason I had the dream...I mean nightmare. I did the exact same thing. Although, my wife was the one who bought one for me...Marriage; that's a different sort of nightmare ;)

It's like a LEGO stock market.  If you buy a "retiring" set, there's a good chance it will just come back to taunt you and then go on sale.  If you are patient and skip a retiring set, it will probably triple in value soon after.

Bosstone100

My father gave his next door a ride and pick up to the airport for a trip back home (Germany) and he asked if my dad wanted anything German. Dad remembered that the Zombies set was still available in Europe after a conversation the previous day. He mentioned it to the guy and he brought one back from Germany for me.

SumoLego

PapaBear said:

Wouldn't life be grand?  I don't know if @SumoLego has nightmares about those, but I sure do.

I only worry that the 25 extra intersection roadplates residing in a box in my basement will unionize or turn into Devastator and smote me out of existence.

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

PapaBear said:

Wouldn't life be grand?  I don't know if @SumoLego has nightmares about those, but I sure do.

I only worry that the 25 extra intersection roadplates residing in a box in my basement will unionize or turn into Devastator and smote me out of existence.

I will take some off your hands.

prevere

Pitfall69 said:

SumoLego said:

PapaBear said:

Wouldn't life be grand?  I don't know if @SumoLego has nightmares about those, but I sure do.

I only worry that the 25 extra intersection roadplates residing in a box in my basement will unionize or turn into Devastator and smote me out of existence.

I will take some off your hands.

Nah. More like Bruticus.

Bumblepants

The Ninjago Movie Brickheadz have popped back up on S@H USA for $7.99 if anyone missed these or wants to try and profit off them. Lloyd was selling 2x RRP on Bricklink

pharmjod

I wonder if lego just found more of the Lloyd or if they are receiving unsold inventory from TRU.

jnscoelho

^ That would make sense.
At the beginning of the year I noticed that for the European S@H the TLNM BrickHeadz retired long before the USA S@H. Well, not only those, all of the first series. At the time I wondered if it would be due to the TrU bankrupcy thing, but probably it was just differences in inventory between regions. Now it seems more likely that the cause is TrU.

Keilup

Now if #30526 stock from TRU would show up somewhere else.  I saw only a handful once at TRU right before bankruptcy announcement.  I stupidly only grabbed one before I realized you could build all 3 and put together.  Never saw them anywhere else.

alaskaguy

JamesJT said:

I’m getting fed up of reselling Lego. There are too many resellers, over production by and re-releases by Lego and Chinese copies but the thing that finished it for me is the number of “unauthorised translations” on ebay and the “charge back” from PayPal. I can’t wait until my stash is gone.

I'm glad I just have them as toys for my child. Works out pretty well (:

prevere

Curious what everyone is thinking with Saturn V. I've got a couple and would like to get more. But I see it as a such a no-brainer, that everyone will have a ton and it'll take 2-3 years to even get close to $250-300. Maybe like what happened to Diagon Alley. Thoughts?

madforLEGO

prevere said:

Curious what everyone is thinking with Saturn V. I've got a couple and would like to get more. But I see it as a such a no-brainer, that everyone will have a ton and it'll take 2-3 years to even get close to $250-300. Maybe like what happened to Diagon Alley. Thoughts?

I think every reseller is thinking the exact same thing, and a bunch of those people will have stacks and stacks of them.

This applies to most sets in general that one will think will do well once gone. So while you could make something off of them, it may take until those large resellers run out of their stock(s) of 20-25 (or more), and then it will all depend on the real demand of the content of the set after years of being discontinued (and of course the hope that LEGO does not redo the set in some fashion).

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

prevere said:

SNIP
it'll take 2-3 years to even get close to $250-300. Maybe like what happened to Diagon Alley. Thoughts?

I'll be suprised if it's still not on shelves in 2 years time..

CCC

Also Saturn V has had quite a bit of press advertising (lots of press stories about it). This will mean many adults that are not really LEGO fans but are into NASA will have already bought it. There will probably be less people in the future that suddenly discover LEGO made a Saturn V.

CaptainPirateMan

Is the BTTF Delorian the last retired set to increase nicely in value? It seems as though the bubble has burst, huh?

pharmjod

Lots of fairly recently retired sets have appreciated nicely. You've just got to be more selective with what you buy. Zig when others zag.

CaptainPirateMan

pharmjod said:

Lots of fairly recently retired sets have appreciated nicely. You've just got to be more selective with what you buy. Zig when others zag.

Can you name a few?

haakono

Can you name a few?

Speed Champions have done fairly well.  For example, the Bugatti Chiron #75878 : gone at retail almost everywhere by mid-June (1 month ago) and now selling for ~30 USD on ebay and amazon. 

hoyatables

pharmjod said:

Lots of fairly recently retired sets have appreciated nicely. You've just got to be more selective with what you buy. Zig when others zag.

And definitely do not (construct-a) Zurg!!

juggles7

CaptainPirateMan said:

Is the BTTF Delorian the last retired set to increase nicely in value? It seems as though the bubble has burst, huh?

The law of supply and demand rules. When your average run-of-the-mill set is produced in such numbers that demand is met, there's little interest or profit remaining in the aftermarket. That's the direction we're headed, though there will always be exceptions and outliers. Don't quit your day job. 

ryjay

....and them there are people like me who expect sellers to be willing to dump there inventory at a discount on MSRP.  Case in point, some Saturn V are going from $80 auction to $110 BIN.

CaptainPirateMan

juggles7 said:

CaptainPirateMan said:

Is the BTTF Delorian the last retired set to increase nicely in value? It seems as though the bubble has burst, huh?

The law of supply and demand rules. When your average run-of-the-mill set is produced in such numbers that demand is met, there's little interest or profit remaining in the aftermarket. That's the direction we're headed, though there will always be exceptions and outliers. Don't quit your day job. 

Lol, I would not quit my day job. But I am a Bricklink seller, so I am always looking for the smart investment. I missed out on the Delorian and am kicking myself for it. I bought the Ecto1 (original) hoping for similiar results, and nothing much yet. The funny thing is, I bought santas workshop on whim, not really expecting much (thinking I might have to part it out), and it's doing decent. So I've just been looking for advice, but I'm not afraid to part out to ensure more profits.

In the past, it always seemed like the licensed sets did better than the regular stuff (past 5 years or so I'm talking). But Star Wars is trending downwards, super hero's are never ending, and the other licensed sets don't seem to have that long lasting appeal (angry birds, etc). So it has me looking more at the nonlicensed sets, but again nothing seems to have that "collectable/resellable" vibe to me. Modulars used to be the way to go, but Assembly Square seems like the only one with potential, imo. 

So again, that leads back to the licensed sets. Sure the Silent Mary, Disney Castle, and the new Harry Potter stuff might be good eventually, but they are still a while away. The Silent Mary will probably be the first to go, but Disney and HP will probably be around a while. 

It was pharmjod said about "zig when others zag" I don't see a lot of either at the moment. Honestly (with my store), buying the retired lonely mountain set (even at inflated prices) has been my best money maker (parting out) Smaug, those minis, and sand green sell like hot cakes. I wish I could find a comparable current set. I bought the new JW set with the Indigoraptpr in it, and he's doing ok, but not like Smaug did.

CCC

As soon as anyone advises to invest in a particular set, you can guarantee that set is not a good investment.

Now more than ever, reselling is not about what price you can sell for, it what price you buy at.

SumoLego

(And your margin on the sale.  If I get 1000 Geoffrey the Giraffe Brickheadz for $1.00 each, and nobody wants them, nor the yellow bricks, I'm still out $1000.00.)

juggles7

CCC said:

As soon as anyone advises to invest in a particular set, you can guarantee that set is not a good investment.

There's no guarantee, either way. In this forum, I saw a recommendation to buy the UCS R2-D2. It was great advice and a great investment. Someone advising it did not ruin it as an investment. So there's that, as well. 

CCC

juggles7 said:

CCC said:

As soon as anyone advises to invest in a particular set, you can guarantee that set is not a good investment.

There's no guarantee, either way. In this forum, I saw a recommendation to buy the UCS R2-D2. It was great advice and a great investment. Someone advising it did not ruin it as an investment. So there's that, as well. 

That was then, this is now. It used to be OK to discuss good investments, since relatively few people were investing then. These days, there are not just the regular forum users here, but people looking for tips that they will act on or share elsewhere too.

pharmjod

Almost every theme has had examples of good returns in the last year or two. Friends Grand Hotel was out for over two years, has only really been gone for about 8 months and it is doing very well. Especially when you consider it was fairly easy to obtain at sub $100 pricing. That's just one. There are more. Buy in price is a huge factor but selling platform is arguably bigger. Folks that can sell on Amazon have a sizable advantage as far as selling price compared to eBay and bricklink. Do some homework, research each theme and look at sold prices recently compared to msrp. Winners aren't always obvious though.

ryjay

CCC said:

Now more than ever, reselling is not about what price you can sell for, it what price you buy at.

Yep, that is pretty sound advise for just about all business requiring an inventory

CCC

ryjay said:

CCC said:

Now more than ever, reselling is not about what price you can sell for, it what price you buy at.

Yep, that is pretty sound advise for just about all business requiring an inventory

It wasn't so important a few years ago. Many sets you could buy at RRP and still be quite sure of making decent money on them, if something is likely to rise to 2-3x RRP, it doesn't really matter if you got 10 or 20% off, or even 50% off, when you bought it. Of course, the better the initial discount the better the profit, but it wasn't necessary to worry too much about the initial discount when you bought. Whereas if something is only likely to go to 1.2x or 1.5x RRP but just as likely to remain at RRP in the secondary market, then buy in price is hugely important.

Baby_Yoda

Exactly. My #7110 today is worth six times its RRP in 1999. Too bad that RRP was six bucks.

CCC

For a minifigure scale landspeeder, that's not bad. I doubt the modern ones will ever reach 6x RRP!

Baby_Yoda

Haha, true! The latest incarnation is grossly overpriced (here, at least). That'd be great if it rose A$250 in value.

Ma1234

ryjay said:

....and them there are people like me who expect sellers to be willing to dump there inventory at a discount on MSRP.  Case in point, some Saturn V are going from $80 auction to $110 BIN.

But there was the recent Target coupon fiasco where one could knock these down to $25 or so. So we might start seeing a flood of these and others that Targe had in stock. 

Baby_Yoda

Question regarding #10254 (I'm not sure if it's been discussed previously). Observing the previous Winter Village set (#10249), I think it's safe to assume that this festive season will be our last opportunity to get the Winter Holiday Train. Nevertheless, that would either make the new WV train station #10259 practically useless for a whole year, or it would only last for a single year, both of which are unusual for most Creator Expert sets. I don't want to make any uninformed decisions, so I'd like to hear from those with more WV experience. Will the train have a longer than average lifespan, the station have a shorter than average lifespan, or will they both likely follow the standard WV conventions?
Edit: I'm not looking to invest, by the way. I just want to get the set at some point.

stevemack

I would disagree on #10259 given how lego work

Take the ghost busters house, both cars have retired yet GBH still available

Also there are also train sets people can use the station on

Baby_Yoda

^ I'm asking, not stating, but thanks for the input. I was kind of hoping they would prolong the train in order to increase sales of the station. But with all of the new trains, it could very well be the case that this one is retired to make way...

stevemack

I could however be totally wrong given the complete randomness of lego sometimes :)

Tower bridge still exist lol

Switchfoot55

^^Although my history with Lego since my Dark Ages ended is limited, I think the Train will be around another year along side the Station. 

Not necessarily based on historical trends. Just a feeling.

Farmer_John

^Agreed. It would be kind of odd to keep a winter-themed station available without a winter-themed train. My hunch is that they both go out at the same time. I guess we'll see...

CCC

It would be like selling GBHQ without Ecto-1 ...

Diggydoes

CCC said:

It would be like selling GBHQ without Ecto-1 ...

Or Assault on Hoth without a AT-AT...

prevere

They'll probably retire the train in Nov, and re-release it in 2 years, just as the train station retires.

SumoLego

Diggydoes said:

CCC said:

It would be like selling GBHQ without Ecto-1 ...

Or Assault on Hoth without a AT-AT...

The AT-AT has too many minifigures.  A proper 'assault' can only have two assaulters.

560Heliport

If they had named it "Defense of Hoth", would it have been okay that it had just two snowtroopers and no AT-AT or AT-ST? For me, that would actually be okay! Yet it's just words.