Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Farmer_John

The best way to get TLG to release a new train set would be for someone to MOC an awesome set and start selling it for profit. Since we all know it's just a terrible thing for an individual to make a profit selling Lego sets, the Lego peasants would gather and there would be a huge uprising within the community demanding TLG re-release the set being sold because making a profit selling Lego isn't fair. In the process of trying to re-release the set (because that's what they do), TLG would realize it's someone's MOC. Jamie Berard would then be called in to do a new quality train set to soothe the Lego peasants and stop the evil reseller...at least that's how I imagine it going.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with TLG not releasing train sets IF they would develop affordable parts to MOC quality train sets. The cost for aftermarket train parts on BL are freaking insane.

Pitfall69

I agree. I need a yellow train base and the only one is in the BNSF set. The cheapest one on BL in the US is $40. 

PapaBear

Farmer_John said:

The best way to get TLG to release a new train set would be for someone to MOC an awesome set and start selling it for profit. Since we all know it's just a terrible thing for an individual to make a profit selling Lego sets, the Lego peasants would gather and there would be a huge uprising within the community demanding TLG re-release the set being sold because making a profit selling Lego isn't fair. In the process of trying to re-release the set (because that's what they do), TLG would realize it's someone's MOC. Jamie Berard would then be called in to do a new quality train set to soothe the Lego peasants and stop the evil reseller...at least that's how I imagine it going.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with TLG not releasing train sets IF they would develop affordable parts to MOC quality train sets. The cost for aftermarket train parts on BL are freaking insane.

I'm on it

Pitfall69

Because this thread is intimately called the "Reseller Thread" what does this mean for online retailers that sell Lego/Toys and don't collect sales tax?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/us/politics/supreme-court-sales-taxes-internet-merchants.amp.html

pharmjod

So we're intimate resellers now? I missed that DTR talk.

Switchfoot55

^It's an open relationship type thing

SumoLego

Switchfoot55 said:

^It's an open relationship type thing

They'll just stick their product anywhere!

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

Farmer_John said:

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

^I'm leaning in the other direction...
My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.

I think comparing TB to an IDEAS set is comparing is like comparing apples and kumquats. TB is a Advanced Creator set that TLG developed internally; the Saturn V is an IDEAS set that was originally developed by individuals and adopted by TLG. The IDEAS sets are pseudo-partnerships with individuals and TLG agrees to pay the individuals some percentage (or whatever the arrangement is) of the profits from selling these sets. Conversely, TLG gets to keep all the profit on the Advanced Creator sets developed in-house. 

It has always seemed to me that TLG doesn't like paying individuals "licensing fees" while they are okay paying Disney licensing fees; therefore, they tend to shorten the life of IDEAS projects even if they're great ideas. Perhaps the Saturn V will be the one exception to the rule, but I doubt it. I guess we'll see...

@Farmer_John
 There wasn't any comparison between the SV and TB sets.  It was mentioned more as to an indication of my prediction skills.  I'm the guy who bought a fairly large stack of Tower Bridges instead of a three times larger stack of Imperial Flagships back in the day. A zig instead of a zag that lost me over 15k resale profit (and the subsequent lack of additional deals that 15+k represents).
Not that I'm bitter about it....
excuse me while I go pour a drink...
  

juggles7

Pitfall69 said:

Because this thread is intimately called the "Reseller Thread" what does this mean for online retailers that sell Lego/Toys and don't collect sales tax?

Retailers will have to start collecting sales tax and remitting it to the respective state and county (and sometimes even municipality), where the buyer lives. As for small-scale resellers, compliance would be nearly impossible, except that the platform they sell through (eBay, Amazon, etc) provides software tools that simplify the process. Software that calculates how much tax is owed, based on the destination zip code, and collecting it at the point of sale, is simple enough. Collecting is simple. Remitting the tax that's collected isn't. Everyone who's playing by the rules and collecting sales tax when shipping to their own state knows that remitting sales tax is done by filling out forms and writing a check to the state, who distributes it among the counties that are owed their pennies. With the Supreme court ruling, you see how important the platform's software is; it must not only collect but remit, lest the tiny seller have to send checks out to 50 different states. As for those brave souls trying to make a few bucks with their own website, without the help (and the associated fees) of a seller platform, I think the new ruling presents a very costly hurdle. And, of course, the tax-free advantage that online sellers  had over brick-and-mortar stores is being removed. In short, the ruling means that those whose business model was based on tax-free sales are now screwed. 

madforLEGO

What will be interesting is to see how this is handled at eBay, bricklink, and brickowl? Are those 'commerce' sites, or are they simply a site where people can go and sell their wares? As they charge a fee it will be interesting to see how that changes.

This does add a major wrinkle to smaller businesses though IMO. They could kill off a lot of small businesses, because how many people want the trouble of collecting for every state a buyer is from that want to make a purchase?

I get why states want that revenue, but how then do they go after everyone who does not pay? You would think it would cost more to go after, build a case, and take such 'scofflaws' to court to get that money.

I think this just opens up a can of worms for everyone involved.

Pitfall69

I understand the crux of the ruling. B&M stores want to be on an even playing field with online retailers and the states want that lost tax revenue, but this going to cause a huge mess initially. I really don't know if it will affect most of us selling stuff on Ebay or Bricklink. I think that if you don't have a registered business and/or Sales Tax licence, you probably won't be affected. They may do the same thing that they do now as far as reporting income. If payments to a participating payee exceed $20,000 and exceed 200 transactions within the calendar year they must file a 1099-k for that participating payee. I can't see the state wanting someone to pay sales tax on a used Playstation they sold on Ebay for $100, but I could be wrong. 

LegobrandonCP

With Double VIP points coming up, I'm having trouble deciding which modular to purchase next. 

I'm debating between the Brick Bank or Assembly Square. Age-wise, it would be smarter to get the Brick Bank, but since Assembly Square is an anniversary set, it might get discontinued sooner. 

I just don't want to miss out like I did for the Town Hall. 

madforLEGO

LegobrandonCP said:

With Double VIP points coming up, I'm having trouble deciding which modular to purchase next. 

I'm debating between the Brick Bank or Assembly Square. Age-wise, it would be smarter to get the Brick Bank, but since Assembly Square is an anniversary set, it might get discontinued sooner. 

I just don't want to miss out like I did for the Town Hall. 

I sense that the Assembly Square will not be around for much longer (maybe the end of this year). I'm guessing the Brick Bank will have a typical modular run.

juggles7

 I can't see the state wanting someone to pay sales tax on a used Playstation they sold on Ebay for $100, but I could be wrong. 
-----------
You're not wrong, Pitfall. Even the new ruling has exceptions for small, occasional sales that don't require sales tax being collected. Like a yard sale. If Amazon or Ebay send you a 1099, or if you have a sales/use tax exemption number (meaning your purchases for resale are tax free) you are definitely on their radar and are expected to comply with the tax laws. But if you're a tiny reseller, I wouldn't worry, but would keep it that way: tiny. 

SumoLego

juggles7 said:

...but would keep it that way: tiny. 

I'll ignore the obvious joke, but go for this one instead - This means you can continue to buy and sell My Little Pony without tax consequences...

Pitfall69

^You see...that is what it's all about right there.

Bumblepants

Old Fishing Store is on backorder in S@H USA. Not convinced it will be a huge aftermarket riser but it is a lovely set and worth getting now if you want one.

ecmo47

^ It's part-out value is really good with the sand green bricks and plethora of printed pieces. 

PapaBear

It only came out last September.  You really think it could be gonzo?  I really don't see that, but I could be wrong

Mr_Cross

Don't Ideas sets in the main have a shorter expected shelf-life/production run? There have been Ideas sets that haven't had (seemingly) that long on shelf. The Fishing Store seems popular, so I'd be surprised if it went this early, but then again, the stuff that surprises me, surprises me.

madforLEGO

The fishing store is a nice set. Pricey though too, and not on sale much. If its run ends sooner than later it may be a sleeper. However, I still feel there are a lot of people that stacked those thinking the same thing.

Bumblepants

Yeah Ideas sets are one of the last seemingly safe bets left to resell which makes them not much of a safe bet anymore.

PapaBear

Wall-e did okay, but some of the recent IDEAS sets like Ghostbusters, Birds, and Big Bang Theory have done absolutely horrible.  There really are no safe bets anymore.  That said, the Fishing Store looks like a great set.  Wouldn't hurt much to put one away to resell.

milamber

I bought several Fishing Stores for parts when they were quite substantially discounted a few months back. Great set to build and some great parts for a good price.

ReesesPieces

Bumblepants said:

Yeah Ideas sets are one of the last seemingly safe bets left to resell which makes them not much of a safe bet anymore.

Tying to comprehend but makes my brain hurt! :)

VorpalRyu

ReesesPieces said:

Bumblepants said:

Yeah Ideas sets are one of the last seemingly safe bets left to resell which makes them not much of a safe bet anymore.

Tying to comprehend but makes my brain hurt! :)

If I'm reading him right, what he's trying to say is that Ideas sets are pretty much one of the safest bets left for reselling, so now every man & his dog will be buying a stack of them to put away, which will lead to oversupply & in turn kill resale value of Ideas sets.

Bumblepants

VorpalRyu said:

ReesesPieces said:

Bumblepants said:

Yeah Ideas sets are one of the last seemingly safe bets left to resell which makes them not much of a safe bet anymore.

Tying to comprehend but makes my brain hurt! :)

If I'm reading him right, what he's trying to say is that Ideas sets are pretty much one of the safest bets left for reselling, so now every man & his dog will be buying a stack of them to put away, which will lead to oversupply & in turn kill resale value of Ideas sets.

Yeah that was it. Your way was much better though!

ReesesPieces

I figured as much but just wanted to tease a bit. 

SumoLego

VorpalRyu said:

...which will lead to oversupply & in turn kill resale value...

Can I reserve my under-priced killed-value after-market Ideas Old Fishing Store from a reseller?  I'd be willing to pay $75.00, or trade a UCS TIE Fighter with a hole in the box.

Astrobricks

milamber said:

I bought several Fishing Stores for parts when they were quite substantially discounted a few months back. Great set to build and some great parts for a good price.

Who was substantially discounting Old Fishing Store? Don’t recall hearing about that, certainly not on this side of the pond.

milamber

It was in the UK. A combination of a retailer discounting by £30 to £109.99 and also offering a further 20% off if you signed up for an account. Also a cashback site were offering 10% cashback at the time. I think they worked out at around £78 each in the end. Wish I'd bought a few more

stlux

Mr_Cross said:

Don't Ideas sets in the main have a shorter expected shelf-life/production run? There have been Ideas sets that haven't had (seemingly) that long on shelf. The Fishing Store seems popular, so I'd be surprised if it went this early, but then again, the stuff that surprises me, surprises me.

Shelf life is a bit random, with licenced sets seeming to last longer than non-licenced sets. Overall availability doesn't seem all that much out of line with other Lego themes; I guess we just remember the outliers.



(Availability dates from Brickset; where different I have taken the European release/retirement dates. I also excluded the original 2 Japan-only CUUSOO sets.)

With the limited number of sets released each year in this team, it is difficult to draw conclusions. 

CCC

For some it is also very regional. For example, the Mars rover was 3 months in the UK, but about 10 days in the US.

And probably the best IDEAS/CUUSOO set ever for resellers was #21102 but not on retirement, but during its shelf life period. That was going for 3x retail in US (although probably only about 1.5x retail in UK) at Xmas 2012. And in large volumes. Anyone that stocked up on those in Sep-Oct 2012 was making decent sums after just 1-2 months.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

^&^^ EXTREMELY location dependant - In Australia, I bought my last three rovers (while still leaving at least double that on the shelf) in Q2 2016!

Bakgrund

Any thoughts on 21042 statue of liberty? Many parts in sandgreen never made before, such as the sand green handcuffs.

CCC

Bakgrund said:

Any thoughts on 21042 statue of liberty? Many parts in sandgreen never made before, such as the sand green handcuffs.

For US resellers, it is probably a good bet for investment. For others, probably not so much. But that is as a set.

As parts packs, they are OK, but I imagine many of the rarer sand green elements will appear in other sets. I wouldn't invest in them as parts packs, at least not unless they go to clearance prices. Not that I see much demand for sand green handcuffs - and they are quite cheap and available in large numbers on BL already. Some of the other more architectural parts may be in more demand.

ecmo47

Anybody buying Dimension Starter sets (#71174) for parts? Several of my local Walmarts have them marked down to $12.00.

SD449

How much longer do you think 71040 The Disney Castle will be available?

I have wanted it since it came out but have only gotten into Lego again this year and think it could be my next big set to buy.

Also has this ever gone on sale in the UK or should I just accept the price with Double VIP Points offer?

SumoLego

My money is on the Castle giving the Death Star a run for longevity.

Farmer_John

^...or the Tower Bridge.

SprinkleOtter

^ Oh, I'll say it, the VW Bus...

SumoLego

I think the Tower Bridge and VW Camper could last forever.  Theoretically, the license with SW could end, thus the Death Star could... be retired.

Bumblepants

SumoLego said:

I think the Tower Bridge and VW Camper could last forever.  Theoretically, the license with SW could end, thus the Death Star could... be retired.

The Death Star is Michael Jordan. Retired, comes back better than ever. Current trajectory has the DS retiring then coming back a third time but way worse, retiring again and then Disney buys Lego but can't draft any good players. Ok that wasn't the great analogy I thought it would be when I start typing but I'm going to hit Post Comment anyway.

SumoLego

Allow me to summarize:  The Death Star is (a) Wizard.

Astrobricks

ecmo47 said:

Anybody buying Dimension Starter sets (#71174) for parts? Several of my local Walmarts have them marked down to $12.00.

I’ve bought 4 for the parts, but I got them for $9 at Target. It’s kind of a weird selection of parts. I’ve kept the characters/minifigs together with their coded bases, but I don’t know if they are worth reselling. I’ve got 4 Batmans, 4 Gandalfs, and 4 Wildstyles. I’ve also been picking up fun packs, mission packs, and level packs if I find them real cheap.

kbw

 If you had to guess, how much time do we have on the Ghostbusters Firehouse HQ? End of year?

stevemack

Hang on, I'll just measure some string to give you an answer :) 

With lego, who knows

kbw

Ha. I know it’s a loaded question, but figured I’d ask and see what people thought

Lyichir

kbw said:

 If you had to guess, how much time do we have on the Ghostbusters Firehouse HQ? End of year?

Hard to tell. The best I can offer is that the Ghostbusters license itself is not necessarily going to end as soon as might have otherwise been expected, considering the very recent release of the Ghostbusters BrickHeadz set.

madforLEGO

Lyichir said:

kbw said:

 If you had to guess, how much time do we have on the Ghostbusters Firehouse HQ? End of year?

Hard to tell. The best I can offer is that the Ghostbusters license itself is not necessarily going to end as soon as might have otherwise been expected, considering the very recent release of the Ghostbusters BrickHeadz set.

I do not equate the brickheadz release with how long the HQ is out for. My guess (and yeah its a guess) is that the HQ will not be around much longer as there is no Ecto 1 to put into the HQ. It has also been out for over a year and my guess is that it is essentially remaining stocks of these that are being made. It may last beyond this season only due to numbers of them left. My guess is they are gone at the end of the year (and may wind up on discount as well)