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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 823
    SMC said:
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.

    I'm not sure if the comment was intended the way everyone is taking it but I definitely laughed out loud!
    BrickByBrickmaaaaaaawagnerml2sid3windr
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,740
    SMC said:
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.

    I'm not sure if the comment was intended the way everyone is taking it but I definitely laughed out loud!
    I cant believe no one has noticed I did in fact post a picture of my helmet, which looks different to most.
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,616
    ^You should definitely get those spots checked out
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,740
    ^ Its the lack of colour that's the real problem.

    Here it is with a normal one:

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    "Predictions on Colorless Helmets and Smooth Hair and their Second Opionions"
    Switchfoot55
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,740
    Mr_Cross said:
    @SMC, does your box open on the narrower edge or has it got the flip top lid?
    narrower edge
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,949
    Out of interest, does this make people laugh or cry? I love that some people still have them listed at £300+.





    Either way, BL prices are high compared to £1.40 on bricks and pieces!

     
    omnium
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    ^I'm leaning in the other direction...
    My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
    Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.
    Worth noting that there is a movie due out later this year about the Apollo program. If LEGO is smart, they will keep it in production to take advantage of that.
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,740
    And next year is the 50th anniversary so it could be around for some time.
  • omniumomnium Brickenham, UKMember Posts: 777
    CCC said:
    Out of interest, does this make people laugh or cry? I love that some people still have them listed at £300+.

    <snip>

    Either way, BL prices are high compared to £1.40 on bricks and pieces! 
    Are they ever in stock on Bricks and Pieces? I've never seen them in. I'd like some for my bricklinked MilF, but didn't think to check on BL as last time I looked they were still crazy prices..
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,949
    ^ Yes, frequently. They are in stock now.
  • omniumomnium Brickenham, UKMember Posts: 777
    Thanks @CCC (and @bandit778 for the PM). I've ordered a couple. And one or two other items, saying as I was in there already...
    bandit778
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720
    random question but which set is likely to retire sooner, the disney castle or the snow speeder? I'm trying to decide what to buy for the storybook promo.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,082
    I would say the Speeder, but neither is retiring anytime soon.  I think we're all still waiting for the GBHQ and Slave 1 to retire.

    The Disney Castle will have the stamina of a Death Star or Tower Bridge...

    (Considering the UCS TIE Fighter retired out-of-order, most likely due to lower sales, I think the current slate of UCS vehicles will be around for another cycle.)
    pharmjodgmonkey76Bricklover18
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    ^I love the bad sellers
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtter
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383
    Well it looks like the LEGO #60052 and #60051 are now gone at [email protected]
    IMO that #60052 was overpriced (especially when said train was routinely on sale for 150 USD, and much lower at times). I did not think LEGO could do any worse, until I saw the price for the new #60198 cargo train at 229.99 USD
    Bumblepants
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,080
    ^i think I had a #60052 that I got for just over $100 one time. Agreed on the overpriced aspect and shocked at price of new one.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,822
    edited June 2018
    Well it looks like the LEGO #60052 and #60051 are now gone at [email protected]
    IMO that #60052 was overpriced (especially when said train was routinely on sale for 150 USD, and much lower at times). I did not think LEGO could do any worse, until I saw the price for the new #60198 cargo train at 229.99 USD
    I'm not sure I'd call 60198 overpriced… it's got the lowest price per piece of any of the City cargo trains since 2006, and is tied with #7898 and 60052 for the greatest length of track. The trackside structure is not as big as 60052's, but its cars and freight pallets seem heftier as do the transport truck and forklift.

    It's not as though the motorized freight trains have ever been cheap, at least not in my lifetime. The only way I can envision LEGO doing any such set under $200 in the future is if they go back to doing ones like #3677 which include way less stuff (and I seem to remember that one being widely disliked for precisely that reason!). The new one will definitely wind up marked down a lot of places, but isn't that the norm for big City sets?
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,502
    Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
    What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383
    Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
    What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.
    Typically, just time, or maybe the previous one is a bit more sought after (maybe it is due to parts in it, or the color scheme). I know the #7939 recently started climbing in value and not really sure why, but they do. Just like the #3677 took a while but has started to climb as well. But it seems that the real climbers are the cargo trains, the passenger trains do not seem to have the same rise, at least the last I checked.

    With as expensive as they are now it really is a crap shoot with the trains, especially with the fact that they make a new model every 4-5 years. If there are discounts then most people who really want them seem to get them at that price as well (or resellers buy them on sale to hoard, or break up to sell just the components-engine, cars, track, etc) .
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^ The #3677 is an awesome train set (after you've thrown away the trackside loader and hopper car).  Also worth remembering its still the only way to get a red cover for a PF battery box.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I'm leaning in the other direction...
    My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
    Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.
    I think comparing TB to an IDEAS set is comparing is like comparing apples and kumquats. TB is a Advanced Creator set that TLG developed internally; the Saturn V is an IDEAS set that was originally developed by individuals and adopted by TLG. The IDEAS sets are pseudo-partnerships with individuals and TLG agrees to pay the individuals some percentage (or whatever the arrangement is) of the profits from selling these sets. Conversely, TLG gets to keep all the profit on the Advanced Creator sets developed in-house. 

    It has always seemed to me that TLG doesn't like paying individuals "licensing fees" while they are okay paying Disney licensing fees; therefore, they tend to shorten the life of IDEAS projects even if they're great ideas. Perhaps the Saturn V will be the one exception to the rule, but I doubt it. I guess we'll see...
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRA
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 216
    Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
    What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.
    I think the Maersk Train is doing comparatively well.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 395
    Emerald Night and Maersk Train are both beautiful sets.  I would never sell them.  Contrary, I have no problem getting rid of other trains like the cargo trains to make room for better trains.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.
    BumblepantsFarmer_Johngmonkey76
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 395
    What iconic trains could they do?  The Polar Express?  Thomas the Tank Engine?
    SprinkleOtter
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 1,019
    The Flying Scotsman? The Mallard? I'm not even a train fan and I can see those two being highly collectible.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Re-releasing Emerald Night with a few updates would be a no-brainer. 
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 395
    I don't really know much about trains.  I just like them.  That's why I was asking.  A new Emerald Night would be well welcomed.  Isn't it based on the Orient Express?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,082
    Pitfall69 said:
    Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.
    No love for the Horizon Express?
    sid3windrMAGNINOMINISUMBRASprinkleOtter
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    SumoLego said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.
    No love for the Horizon Express?
    Oh man. Totally forgot about that train. I guess there isn't any love...lol
    RonyarSumoLego
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,502
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.
    No love for the Horizon Express?
    Oh man. Totally forgot about that train. I guess there isn't any love...lol
    It seems to be going for significantly over RRP on BL.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    ^I was being funny. It is a nice train, but heavy. I bought 2 to make a decent sized train and the magnets keep detaching. Maybe I just need a new magnet.
    BumblepantsSumoLegoAstrobricks
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,887
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I was being funny. It is a nice train, but heavy. I bought 2 to make a decent sized train and the magnets keep detaching. Maybe I just need a new magnet.
    Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.
    SumoLegobandit778Astrobricksjuggles7gmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,082
    Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.
    Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  
    BumblepantsPitfall69gmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 892
    This discussion has really gone off the... rails... :)
    AstrobricksBumblepantsMr_CrossPitfall69juggles7gmonkey76FizyxSprinkleOtter
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,958
    It's almost back to normal then.
    stluxAstrobrickspharmjodBumblepantsPitfall69juggles7gmonkey76RonyarSprinkleOtter
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 892
    I'm not sure "normal" applies to anything or anyone on this forum... and that's why I like it!
    milambergmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,502
    SumoLego said:
    Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.
    Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  
    If chaff is involved, you’re doing it wrong :P
    SprinkleOtter
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,088
    All right fellas, time for an English lesson!

    Chaff:  dry, scaly protective casings of the seeds of cereal grain. Or used by jet fighters to avoid missiles. 

    Chafe:  To wear away or irritate by rubbing or friction.

    So chaff can cause chafing and chafing could cause chaff but one is a noun and the other a verb.
    BumblepantsAstrobricksFizyxSprinkleOtterricecake
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    I can't avoid it; Gungans are babe magnets ;)
    GothamConstructionCoSumoLegodavetheoxygenmangmonkey76FizyxSprinkleOtter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,082
    ecmo47 said:
    All right fellas, time for an English lesson!
    I could care less about holding down the fort.
    Pitfall69pharmjodPapaBeardavetheoxygenmangmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,082
    Pitfall69 said:
    I can't avoid it; Gungans are babe magnets ;)
    And chafe magnets.
    Pitfall69davetheoxygenmangmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,885
    SumoLego said:
    ecmo47 said:
    All right fellas, time for an English lesson!
    I could care less about holding down the fort.

    Could you be more pacific?
    SumoLegoSwitchfoot55PapaBearbgl_84davetheoxygenmanbandit778gmonkey76FizyxSprinkleOtter
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    SumoLego said:
    Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.
    Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  
    pharmjod said:
    SumoLego said:
    ecmo47 said:
    All right fellas, time for an English lesson!
    I could care less about holding down the fort.

    Could you be more pacific?
    I had horrible chafing from a Pacific rim...err...nevermind.
    sid3windrSprinkleOtter
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,382
    Anyway, we are due for another "iconic" train set regardless whether I the Horizon Express or not. We are definitely due for another steam engine. I missed out on the Emerald Night back in the day.
    SumoLegoFarmer_JohnSprinkleOtter
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 892
    #75955 Hogwarts Express is a steam engine...
    pharmjodSprinkleOtter
  • tomahawkertomahawker Member Posts: 171
    @Pitfall69, based on comments from Jamie Berard in a recent interview, I don't think we will see sets like HE, EN, or Maersk in the foreseeable future.  There simply isn't enough of a market for them to be a significant profit opportunity for Lego.

    See my posting with the link to the interview here:
    https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/comment/581439#Comment_581439
    Astrobricks
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