Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SMC

^ Its the lack of colour that's the real problem.

Here it is with a normal one:

Pitfall69

"Predictions on Colorless Helmets and Smooth Hair and their Second Opionions"

SMC

Mr_Cross said:

@SMC, does your box open on the narrower edge or has it got the flip top lid?

narrower edge

CCC

Out of interest, does this make people laugh or cry? I love that some people still have them listed at £300+.





Either way, BL prices are high compared to £1.40 on bricks and pieces!

 

BuriedinBricks

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

^I'm leaning in the other direction...
My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.

Worth noting that there is a movie due out later this year about the Apollo program. If LEGO is smart, they will keep it in production to take advantage of that.

SMC

And next year is the 50th anniversary so it could be around for some time.

omnium

CCC said:

Out of interest, does this make people laugh or cry? I love that some people still have them listed at £300+.

<snip>

Either way, BL prices are high compared to £1.40 on bricks and pieces! 

Are they ever in stock on Bricks and Pieces? I've never seen them in. I'd like some for my bricklinked MilF, but didn't think to check on BL as last time I looked they were still crazy prices..

CCC

^ Yes, frequently. They are in stock now.

omnium

Thanks @CCC (and @bandit778 for the PM). I've ordered a couple. And one or two other items, saying as I was in there already...

Bricklover18

random question but which set is likely to retire sooner, the disney castle or the snow speeder? I'm trying to decide what to buy for the storybook promo.

SumoLego

I would say the Speeder, but neither is retiring anytime soon.  I think we're all still waiting for the GBHQ and Slave 1 to retire.

The Disney Castle will have the stamina of a Death Star or Tower Bridge...

(Considering the UCS TIE Fighter retired out-of-order, most likely due to lower sales, I think the current slate of UCS vehicles will be around for another cycle.)

Pitfall69

^I love the bad sellers

madforLEGO

Well it looks like the LEGO #60052 and #60051 are now gone at [email protected]

IMO that #60052 was overpriced (especially when said train was routinely on sale for 150 USD, and much lower at times). I did not think LEGO could do any worse, until I saw the price for the new #60198 cargo train at 229.99 USD

piratemania7

^i think I had a #60052 that I got for just over $100 one time. Agreed on the overpriced aspect and shocked at price of new one.

Aanchir

madforLEGO said:

Well it looks like the LEGO #60052 and #60051 are now gone at [email protected]

IMO that #60052 was overpriced (especially when said train was routinely on sale for 150 USD, and much lower at times). I did not think LEGO could do any worse, until I saw the price for the new #60198 cargo train at 229.99 USD

I'm not sure I'd call 60198 overpriced… it's got the lowest price per piece of any of the City cargo trains since 2006, and is tied with #7898 and 60052 for the greatest length of track. The trackside structure is not as big as 60052's, but its cars and freight pallets seem heftier as do the transport truck and forklift.

It's not as though the motorized freight trains have ever been cheap, at least not in my lifetime. The only way I can envision LEGO doing any such set under $200 in the future is if they go back to doing ones like #3677 which include way less stuff (and I seem to remember that one being widely disliked for precisely that reason!). The new one will definitely wind up marked down a lot of places, but isn't that the norm for big City sets?

Astrobricks

Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.

madforLEGO

Astrobricks said:

Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.

Typically, just time, or maybe the previous one is a bit more sought after (maybe it is due to parts in it, or the color scheme). I know the #7939 recently started climbing in value and not really sure why, but they do. Just like the #3677 took a while but has started to climb as well. But it seems that the real climbers are the cargo trains, the passenger trains do not seem to have the same rise, at least the last I checked.

With as expensive as they are now it really is a crap shoot with the trains, especially with the fact that they make a new model every 4-5 years. If there are discounts then most people who really want them seem to get them at that price as well (or resellers buy them on sale to hoard, or break up to sell just the components-engine, cars, track, etc) .

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

^ The #3677 is an awesome train set (after you've thrown away the trackside loader and hopper car).  Also worth remembering its still the only way to get a red cover for a PF battery box.

Farmer_John

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

^I'm leaning in the other direction...
My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.

I think comparing TB to an IDEAS set is comparing is like comparing apples and kumquats. TB is a Advanced Creator set that TLG developed internally; the Saturn V is an IDEAS set that was originally developed by individuals and adopted by TLG. The IDEAS sets are pseudo-partnerships with individuals and TLG agrees to pay the individuals some percentage (or whatever the arrangement is) of the profits from selling these sets. Conversely, TLG gets to keep all the profit on the Advanced Creator sets developed in-house. 

It has always seemed to me that TLG doesn't like paying individuals "licensing fees" while they are okay paying Disney licensing fees; therefore, they tend to shorten the life of IDEAS projects even if they're great ideas. Perhaps the Saturn V will be the one exception to the rule, but I doubt it. I guess we'll see...

exciter1

Astrobricks said:

Is this what passes for discussion of secondary market value these days? 
What makes a train set increase in value after retirement? Other than being Emerald Night, of course.

I think the Maersk Train is doing comparatively well.

PapaBear

Emerald Night and Maersk Train are both beautiful sets.  I would never sell them.  Contrary, I have no problem getting rid of other trains like the cargo trains to make room for better trains.

Pitfall69

Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.

PapaBear

What iconic trains could they do?  The Polar Express?  Thomas the Tank Engine?

Mr_Cross

The Flying Scotsman? The Mallard? I'm not even a train fan and I can see those two being highly collectible.

mathew

Re-releasing Emerald Night with a few updates would be a no-brainer. 

PapaBear

I don't really know much about trains.  I just like them.  That's why I was asking.  A new Emerald Night would be well welcomed.  Isn't it based on the Orient Express?

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.

No love for the Horizon Express?

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

Pitfall69 said:

Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.

No love for the Horizon Express?

Oh man. Totally forgot about that train. I guess there isn't any love...lol

Astrobricks

Pitfall69 said:

SumoLego said:

Pitfall69 said:

Aren't we due for an iconic train set? It's been 7 years since the Maersk Train was released; before that, the release of these type of sets were more frequent.

No love for the Horizon Express?

Oh man. Totally forgot about that train. I guess there isn't any love...lol

It seems to be going for significantly over RRP on BL.

Pitfall69

^I was being funny. It is a nice train, but heavy. I bought 2 to make a decent sized train and the magnets keep detaching. Maybe I just need a new magnet.

Bumblepants

Pitfall69 said:

^I was being funny. It is a nice train, but heavy. I bought 2 to make a decent sized train and the magnets keep detaching. Maybe I just need a new magnet.

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

pharmjod

Bumblepants said:

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

Is that a euphemism?

Bumblepants

pharmjod said:

Bumblepants said:

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

Is that a euphemism?

It was a reply to Pitfall so draw your own conclusions...

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  

560Heliport

This discussion has really gone off the... rails... :)

bandit778

It's almost back to normal then.

560Heliport

I'm not sure "normal" applies to anything or anyone on this forum... and that's why I like it!

Astrobricks

SumoLego said:

Bumblepants said:

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  

If chaff is involved, you’re doing it wrong :P

ecmo47

All right fellas, time for an English lesson!

Chaff:  dry, scaly protective casings of the seeds of cereal grain. Or used by jet fighters to avoid missiles. 

Chafe:  To wear away or irritate by rubbing or friction.

So chaff can cause chafing and chafing could cause chaff but one is a noun and the other a verb.

Pitfall69

I can't avoid it; Gungans are babe magnets ;)

SumoLego

ecmo47 said:

All right fellas, time for an English lesson!

I could care less about holding down the fort.

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

I can't avoid it; Gungans are babe magnets ;)

And chafe magnets.

pharmjod

SumoLego said:

ecmo47 said:

All right fellas, time for an English lesson!

I could care less about holding down the fort.

Could you be more pacific?

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

Bumblepants said:

Frequent couplings can wear out an older magnet.

Or cause uncomfortable chaffing.  

pharmjod said:

SumoLego said:

ecmo47 said:

All right fellas, time for an English lesson!

I could care less about holding down the fort.

Could you be more pacific?

I had horrible chafing from a Pacific rim...err...nevermind.

Pitfall69

Anyway, we are due for another "iconic" train set regardless whether I the Horizon Express or not. We are definitely due for another steam engine. I missed out on the Emerald Night back in the day.

560Heliport

#75955 Hogwarts Express is a steam engine...

tomahawker

@Pitfall69, based on comments from Jamie Berard in a recent interview, I don't think we will see sets like HE, EN, or Maersk in the foreseeable future.  There simply isn't enough of a market for them to be a significant profit opportunity for Lego.

See my posting with the link to the interview here:
https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/comment/581439#Comment_581439

Farmer_John

mathew said:

Re-releasing Emerald Night with a few updates would be a no-brainer. 

While I think the Emerald Night is an awesome set, the re-releases are getting tiresome. I would love to see TLG release a unique train set that has the same quality and attention to detail as the Emerald Night. There are so many possibilities, and I am "on-board" (pardon the pun) with @Pitfall69 that a nice steam engine would be great.

Pitfall69

560Heliport said:

#75955 Hogwarts Express is a steam engine...

So was the Constitution from TLR.

tomahawker said:

@Pitfall69, based on comments from Jamie Berard in a recent interview, I don't think we will see sets like HE, EN, or Maersk in the foreseeable future.  There simply isn't enough of a market for them to be a significant profit opportunity for Lego.

See my posting with the link to the interview here:
https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/comment/581439#Comment_581439

I don't think the train sets in general are profitable for TLG, but they keep coming out with them. 

PapaBear

It's true.  As a LEGO train enthusiast I realize the chances of another Emerald Night are very low.  When a set like the new passenger train is released, it is just about as good as it is going to get, unfortunately.