Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

PapaBear

juggles7 said:

I didn't know there was such a list.

That's because you're not on the LEGO VIP VIP list

juggles7

And how do you know this, PapaBear? Actually I am a VIP (they set the VIP bar very low) and I submit to you that there is no such list of scheduled retirements. If I'm wrong, post such list, and I'll retract and apologize. 

willobee498

There is a "Retiring Soon" page you can get to, though currently when I checked the Canadian store it was empty.

roxio

There's a list on brickpicker that has been very accurate as well

MrJackson

There is a list of sets that are on sell-through and done production.  However, that list is internal; store managers know it but it's not available to the general public. 
@PapaBear trust me on this one, I worked there for four years. 

willobee498

You guys do realize Papabear was making a joke, right? 

juggles7

The "retiring soon" label that's applied to some sets at Shop at Home is highly selective, and likely a sales gimmick to quicken the sale of slow movers. Most sets are sold out, then retired, without any such warning. The "lists" on brickpicker are found in user forums and their accuracy is no better than the predictions found here. I concede there may be internal lists not available to the public. Even if those could be kept secret, they would always be subject to frequent revision and change. So unless you're a company insider, for all practical purposes, there is no such list. For those that persist in thinking they have access to one, please share with us what the projected retirement of, say, the Creator Parisian Restaurant. 

roxio

juggles7 said:

The "retiring soon" label that's applied to some sets at Shop at Home is highly selective, and likely a sales gimmick to quicken the sale of slow movers. Most sets are sold out, then retired, without any such warning. The "lists" on brickpicker are found in user forums and their accuracy is no better than the predictions found here. I concede there may be internal lists not available to the public. Even if those could be kept secret, they would always be subject to frequent revision and change. So unless you're a company insider, for all practical purposes, there is no such list. For those that persist in thinking they have access to one, please share with us what the projected retirement of, say, the Creator Parisian Restaurant. 

Unknown, its not on the list

CCC

juggles7 said:

And how do you know this, PapaBear? Actually I am a VIP (they set the VIP bar very low) and I submit to you that there is no such list of scheduled retirements. If I'm wrong, post such list, and I'll retract and apologize. 

There are VIPs and then there are VIP VIPs.

560Heliport

Shouldn't that be VVIPs?

juggles7

Since you have "the list", roxio, please copy and paste it here so we can all see it. Then I will apologize for my comments that no such list exists. 

juggles7

I thought the VVIP was just a typo, a stutter step. Clearly, I'll never achieve such a status. Anyway, we started down this road with Poe's X-Wing Fighter, which I now see is on backorder. Multiple production runs, indeed. 

SumoLego

560Heliport said:

Shouldn't that be VVIPs?

I think that's the roman numeral for 5009.  Is that the special secret double-probation handshake code that will get me a UCS B-Wing for $49.99?

sid3windr

Showing off 3 personalized black VIP cards is part of that handshake though.

Pitfall69

Secret handshake?

Switchfoot55

And @Pitfall69 was never heard from again...

SumoLego

^^ I think that is on the back of the Declaration of Independence.  Or maybe the Treaty of Coruscant. 

I'm not really good with converting the Gregorian Calendar to the Galactic Standard Calendar.

redarmy

Pitfall69 said:

Secret handshake?

It's missing 2 sausages and an explosion!

Pitfall69

I am sure that this has been discussed before, but do you think that ressurecting older themes piques interest in collecting that particular theme? For example: Lego is releasing some new Harry Potter sets; would people want to start collecting the older sets?

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

I am sure that this has been discussed before, but do you think that ressurecting older themes piques interest in collecting that particular theme? For example: Lego is releasing some new Harry Potter sets; would people want to start collecting the older sets?

I look at it this way now. With all of the sets that LEGO is pumping out now I'm not sure old sets are going to help. I just had a discussion with a friend of mine who is into LEGO and he is talking about the LEGO fatigue that many  seem to be feeling now: Too many sets.. More importantly, too many sets with prices rising seemingly faster than inflation. At least that is my feeling, as well as others. Now, there may be some math that explains it away, but the perception is LEGO is getting pricier every year. Never mind the uber expensive ones like Assembly Square, Ninjago City, and Ferris Wheel, Carousel, and now the Roller Coaster (and the rumors of a large Hogwarts Castle -if it exists): Great sets, but for greater dollars.
Combine this with economies like the US where salaries are not rising and I think you see the result of that: LEGO sold less this past year.
Now, I can see LEGO seeing the Potter sets sell well and deciding to add another year of it, but who will have the money for them when they come out?

CCC

Pitfall69 said:

I am sure that this has been discussed before, but do you think that ressurecting older themes piques interest in collecting that particular theme? For example: Lego is releasing some new Harry Potter sets; would people want to start collecting the older sets?

In my view, some people will but most people wouldn't. Why pay two or three times RRP for older sets when you can buy very similar new sets? Plus the updated minifigures (which are a big draw to the licensed sets) will probably be better than the old ones. If the sets are yellow skins, forget it (unless they are bought sealed/new as collectables to remain as a sealed set, rather than to build).

juggles7

I'm seeing a lot of unloading on eBay of older HP sets. There's no flood, but the usual trickle has at least doubled. The most recent Castle #4842, after hitting a peak of $750 has sunk to less than $500. I think soon you'll see small sets like Forbidden Forest and Freeing Dobby lose half their value. I see the new releases as a loss, not a gain, for the older stuff. There will always be a few exceptions. Problem is we don't know what's to be released or re-released, aside from the Great Hall that's on its way. 

madforLEGO

juggles7 said:

I'm seeing a lot of unloading on eBay of older HP sets. There's no flood, but the usual trickle has at least doubled. The most recent Castle #4842, after hitting a peak of $750 has sunk to less than $500. I think soon you'll see small sets like Forbidden Forest and Freeing Dobby lose half their value. I see the new releases as a loss, not a gain, for the older stuff. There will always be a few exceptions. Problem is we don't know what's to be released or re-released, aside from the Great Hall that's on its way. 

You will only see the loss if those figures are re-released. If not, they will only climb higher.

mathew

I think the upcoming Great Hall set will be a big hit this Christmas.  And at least initially will cause a surge in demand for older sets until they are re-made by Lego.

juggles7

Could be, could be. I respect those who disagree with me. While I think there will never be another, say, Shrieking Shack, I feel very confident there will be new minifigures for all the major characters, and most minor ones, too. Chatter has it that there may even be a CMF series. While I agree that most sets are driven by the minifigures that they contain, I also know there are some who want the buildings, too, to create their own displays. You can take my advice or ignore it, of course. But if I had any small sets like those I mentioned, I'd unload them now before the news of their replacement or upgrade comes down the pike. I also wouldn't be holding any Hogwart's Castles, #4842 or otherwise. I have no inside information at all, but I feel awfully sure there will be another Castle.  It might be 2019 or later, but when it arrives, few will want to overpay for an old one. 

VorpalRyu

@juggles7, what was the phrase....never say never. You might think TLG would never do another Shrieking Shack, but remember there were a lot of people saying TLG would never release another UCS MF & we now know that not to be the case.

CCC

madforLEGO said:

juggles7 said:

I'm seeing a lot of unloading on eBay of older HP sets. There's no flood, but the usual trickle has at least doubled. The most recent Castle #4842, after hitting a peak of $750 has sunk to less than $500. I think soon you'll see small sets like Forbidden Forest and Freeing Dobby lose half their value. I see the new releases as a loss, not a gain, for the older stuff. There will always be a few exceptions. Problem is we don't know what's to be released or re-released, aside from the Great Hall that's on its way. 

You will only see the loss if those figures are re-released. If not, they will only climb higher.

The (newer version of ) Freeing Dobby and Forbidden Forest are both sets where the part out value is similar to the set price, which is quite different to most current sets, where the part out price is normally about double the cost price. Of course, much value is in the minifigures. The new Hagrid appears to be quite different to the old version, so it might be that he holds his value well. It will be interesting to see what they do with Dobby - he changed significantly in terms of print between the older old and the newer old sets, especially the head. If they re-release the same version, his value will drop. If they do a new version, the older one could well hold some value. I don't think the same goes with most minifigures though - if the print looks similar, but not quite, I don't think most people will care too much and the prices will drop.

The ones that might be interesting are any that don't get redone - ones like the Yule Ball Harry, for example. The market got flooded with them in the past, but if not redone, they might suddenly be sought after.

stevemack

If anyone is hoping tower bridge #10214 retires this year... Smyths just added it to their inventory https://www.smythstoys.com/uk/en-gb/toys/lego-and-bricks/lego-creator/lego-10214-creator-expert-tower-bridge/p/166495

SumoLego

stevemack said:

If anyone is hoping tower bridge #10214 retires this year...

I think Big Ben will retire before the Tower Bridge.

CCC

Tower Bridge will probably fall down before the LEGO set retires.

pharmjod

CCC said:

Tower Bridge will probably fall down before the LEGO set retires.

I think you're confusing it with London Bridge. ;)

Switchfoot55

^Or the Fergie song?

FollowsClosely

juggles7 said:

Could be... ...But if I had any small sets like those I mentioned, I'd unload them now before the news of their replacement or upgrade comes down the pike. I also wouldn't be holding any Hogwart's Castles, #4842 or otherwise. I have no inside information at all, but I feel awfully sure there will be another Castle.  It might be 2019 or later, but when it arrives, few will want to overpay for an old one. 

I just unloaded ALL of my HP sets last month. I now have $1,300 in cash waiting for the new lineup.

Farmer_John

^How did you sell it @FollowsClosely ? On eBay? Amazon? Etc.?

Pitfall69

I still chuckle when this thread comes up at the top; it used to be permanently at the top for a couple of years.

I also sold 99% of my HP sets. The only sealed set I have now is Diagon Alley and I have about 20 random minifigures and some incomplete sets. I cant wait until the new sets come out :)

PapaBear

I only have one #4842 left.  You guys really think the price will fall on them?  I thought #5378 was still worth a lot

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

I still chuckle when this thread comes up at the top; it used to be permanently at the top for a couple of years.

I also sold 99% of my HP sets. The only sealed set I have now is Diagon Alley and I have about 20 random minifigures and some incomplete sets. I cant wait until the new sets come out :)

I have a few freeing Dobby and forbidden forest sets left.

If those figures do not get re-released, those sets will explode in value. If they don't, oh well. I did not pay much for them to begin with.

So far, Im not seeing any of those figures back in these new sets (aside from Hagrid and Harry). What will be interesting to me is the CMF series.

On another note, it appears that the TLBM sets are starting to sell out at S@H

CurvedRoadPlate

@Pitfall69 The thread wasn't the same after Lego Fan Texas disappeared. 

Pitfall69

@madforLEGO ; I too think that those sets will go up too as people who never collected HP Lego before will want to add these to their collection. There are still many rabid HP fans out there.

SumoLego

Right up until wave 2 of the new sets start filling in the gaps...

Bumblepants

CurvedRoadPlate said:

@Pitfall69 The thread wasn't the same after Lego Fan Texas disappeared. 

He was also smart enough to get out before the reselling market nosedived. Now stuff like UCS Tumblers are barely worth more than RRP years after retirement. It is hard to get excited about predictions when the most accurate prediction is 'it probably won't work out to much'.

CCC

PapaBear said:

I only have one #4842 left.  You guys really think the price will fall on them?

I expect the price to remain steady or drop slightly. But I also expect the volume of sales for them to drop. Prices will remain steady as sellers with them won't want to drop the price and will be stubborn, but 'regular' people that want a Hogwarts will just buy the current one. You will need to find a special person that wants everything to be able to sell it at a high price. So prices remain but volume of sales down.  Since there is so much in the back catalogue for HP, I'm not even sure new collectors will want to go back and buy everything. For example, the new Howarts Express looks better than the older ones, so why buy the old ones, unless they are to remain sealed as a collectable. I doubt many new collectors will try to buy all the past sets.

pharmjod

I'd like for LEGO to have a couple of years of waves for Harry Potter. Rerelease all the old sets and fill in gaps. If they do that, the old sets will likely drop. I sold all of mine except diagon alley as well. I'd sell it if I ever got a serious whiff that they were redoing it.

CCC

I imagine they will redo Diagon Alley, but it will likely be in demand when the first wave comes out. That will probably be the sweet spot for selling it. Demand from people that buy all the other wave 1 stuff, but cannot find a Diagon Alley at retail.

SumoLego

(I think a UCS MF did a pretty good job of exploring hoe that balance works...)

Lyichir

Worth mentioning that there's a lot of potential subjects a Diagon Alley set could cover—even if a new one comes out there's no guarantee it'll feature all the same shops as the previous one.

pharmjod

We need a leaky cauldron and entrance to diagon alley.

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

(I think a UCS MF did a pretty good job of exploring hoe that balance works...)

Do they have such an establishment in Diagon Alley? Maybe one can find a "hoe" in Knockturn Alley instread.

SumoLego

Apparently my auto-correct thinks I'm an avid gardener.  

The hoe you seek is actually a 'ho'.  And get your mind out of the gutter!

BlueberryWaffles

How long is the Ship in the Bottle going to last? I've been paranoid about the Ideas sets ever since I let the Maze slip by me. That's so expensive now.