Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

gmonkey76

Bumblepants said:

The Pirate one is the weakest as the minifigure is not a classic one sadly. Still a nice figure but loses nostalgia points which fuel the interest in these.

That and they didn't use the classic palm tree pieces.

CCC

Although the pirate tends to be slightly more expensive than the other two.

madforLEGO

So Amazon US now has the #10248 F40 back in stock, the #10232 Palace Cinema back in stock, and the #10249 toy shop back in stock (all sold by Amazon).
In the very least this can help those that missed out on these when they sold out at LEGO.

juggles7

Short-lived Minecraft sets like Jungle Temple, Jungle Treehouse, Witch Hut, and Ice Spikes have been sold out at S@H-USA for over a month, maybe more. The tiny stock that survived the holiday shopping was clearanced in stores and I've not seen any since.  But considering how long most of the earlier MC sets were available, surely they will resume production of these. Right? 

luckyruss

I'm reckoning Ice Spikes #21131 has definitely gone.  I haven't seen any anywhere for a long time, and it's not in this year's line up.  I would surmise the same for #21132 and #21133.  Both jungle sets seem to have too, but #21125 was in the previous wave and has been around longer (I still see this in the stores).

they seem to have kept the others - so Mushroom Is #21129 was sold out before Christmas but has been restocked round me.

VorpalRyu

Seriously having to consider whether or not collecting the Minecraft theme is worth it anymore. Missed out on two sets that were at the top of our Minecraft priority queue, the Witch's Hut made a blink & you missed it appearance on shelves here, not even chance for sale prices, but more annoying was the Village. Held off purchasing it over Xmas so we didn't risk falling short elsewhere, while I was sorting out a S@H order, I had it in my cart, but when I went to put the order through it came up as sold out.

Thinking if the available for less than 12 months thing, for random Minecraft sets keeps up, I'll sell the sets we have (pretty sure they're all still boxed up) & give Lego Minecraft the flick.

SeanTheCollector

^ #21128 The Village was never going to hang around long after #21137 The Mountain Case was released. The Village was available for a year and a half in the UK while #21133 The Witch Hut retired after only 9 months. Both sets were overpriced in the UK but there was plenty of opportunities to pick up at 20%+ discounts.

VorpalRyu

@SeanTheCollector, I'm in Australia, the Witch Hut barely made it to shelves here before it vanished into thin air (no discounts to be had). As for the Village, I was expecting it would go soon (figured it would the usual two-ish years, depending on final stock levels), which is why I tried to grab it just after Xmas. I know a few people who missed out on both, with the Village being the bigger sore point, because several claims by those "in the know" that the Village would be available at a local retailer at some point.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

^Village was available at TRU for a while. I'm also pretty sure I've seen it in Toyworlds up here. I'll keep my eyes open for both...

VorpalRyu

^ One of the TRU staff did say they were on the system at one point, so they should be getting them in stock, but they never materialised. Maybe your local TRU's got the stock destined for Adelaide....it wouldn't the first time, both Sydney & Melbourne have apparently gotten extras meant for our stores.

1x1

I used to have a query bookmarked that showed all the discontinued sets from the last 6 months but now I can't find it. Does anyone have anything like this?
i've tried using the query builder with limited success. Ideally I want to get a list of retired sets from the last 6 months in general and retired sets that were only available for less than about 14 months. I'm not sure if that's possible?

VorpalRyu

^ I would be interested in seeing the results if you manage it, if it is a new trend for TLG, I can see it potentially backfiring.

Rainstorm26

Does the fact that it has been almost 3 weeks of a comment being posted in this thread indicate the death of Lego as an investment vehicle?

It would be interesting to generate trend / statistics on # of posts in this thread per year or per month.

romanstar

Yes i havent been on here for a few years due to personal circumstances and i was really surprised at the lack of posts on here and was wondering the same.

Fizyx

I think it's just not really retirement season at the moment. Since it seems like most retirements are revealed/occur around the new year, and we just passed that mark, I just think a lot of the potential speculation is tamped down because it's unlikely that we'll see many new retirements for at least a couple months, and potentially quite a while longer than that.

madforLEGO

Fizyx said:

I think it's just not really retirement season at the moment. Since it seems like most retirements are revealed/occur around the new year, and we just passed that mark, I just think a lot of the potential speculation is tamped down because it's unlikely that we'll see many new retirements for at least a couple months, and potentially quite a while longer than that.

Agreed, we just also have not had much jibber jabber in this thread, sometimes it moves to other threads, but this time of year is usually quiet as not many sets retire and speculation is too early for many. Im sure some has to do with less people reselling in the forum as well.
I will say that if you go to S@H right now and view the various sections you will see a lot of sets that are sold out.

pharmjod

I can assure you Lego investing is still very much alive. You are on the wrong forum for it now though. 

samiam391

I would say in terms of the number of people involved in it, LEGO re-selling is probably near an all time high. Profit margins for most though have decreased drastically.

I've found the need to jump to different types of LEGO investing pretty frequently in order to stay ahead of the "common mob"; more than I used to in years past when there was less competition. The drive to pay bills and keep the hobby fund adequately supplied at all times keeps me going. 

piratemania7

Rainstorm26 said:

Does the fact that it has been almost 3 weeks of a comment being posted in this thread indicate the death of Lego as an investment vehicle?

It would be interesting to generate trend / statistics on # of posts in this thread per year or per month.

I think those “regulars” in this thread are just busy elsewhere...

romanstar

pharmjod said:

I can assure you Lego investing is still very much alive. You are on the wrong forum for it now though. 

Whats the right forum now then? Being out the loop for a few years and everythings changed.lol

Bumblepants

I think a lot of people are choosing to keep their strategies and plans closer to the chest now that the reselling market has gotten so competitive. When your best bet at a quick riser is something others haven't bought not talking about it ahead of time is smart way to play.

exciter1

When things were heating up in 2012 - 2013, I think a common theme was buying the big sets was the easiest way to have success. That's proving not so successful anymore.  Most are picking and choosing, and also keeping their info to themselves for the most part.  It's still trial and error out there.

juggles7

The only bright spot for veteran resellers is that it's nearly impossible for newbies to join in. So at least there's no new competition coming on board. Amazon has "gated" the building toys and many other categories so that you have to apply to sell Lego, unless they've grandfathered you in. Not to mention that people don't leave feedback any more. Trust me; it's about 1 in a thousand happy customers who leave feedback. Because of this, the few cranks, the 1% who cannot be pleased no matter what, can ruin your feedback and ruin your sales. And how can a newbie with zero feedback ever get started? It seems almost impossible. Though Amazon will not help you in removing unfair feedback, they know darn well it exists. To wit: their own Amazon Warehouse, where they sell damaged products, stopped even displaying their feedback after it dropped below 80%. (Must be nice to be able to conceal your own feedback and still get sales.) It's not nearly as bad at Ebay, but the trend is also there, too. And the trend will only continue, since people are too "busy" to leave feedback ("distracted", more like it). Veteran sellers, who can avoid being blindsided by negative feedback, will win out.  The tiny sellers will be ruined by just a few complainers, and newbies won't be able to get a foot in the door. It's already happening. 

juggles7

Don't get me wrong. The lack of new competition won't be enough to offset the other drags on reselling Lego. Mark my words: we're just one, just one, 5% postal increase away from lots of people reselling sets (I mean well-selected retired sets) at a loss. 

juggles7

"...their own Amazon Warehouse, where they sell damaged products, stopped even displaying their feedback after it dropped below 80%. "
To clarify: they're part of Amazon and I expect they do a great job. Their low score just proves my point that satisfied customers don't leave feedback, the complainers outnumber those giving giving praise, and the seller ends up looking worse than deserved. 

CCC

juggles7 said:

The only bright spot for veteran resellers is that it's nearly impossible for newbies to join in.

It is easy as anything on ebay to get started and feedback counts for little these days anyway. If a price is good, people will buy.

legofanfromleeds

I keep looking at my favourite thread but I'm thinking I'm the last one to leave the party ! ( where is everyone now ?)
Pm please if anyone knows where all the  re selling gossip is please.

vwong19

Everyone is buried under a mountain of Lego sets that they can no longer unload and can't get to this site to offer advise.

SumoLego

vwong19 said:

Everyone is buried under a mountain of Lego sets that they can no longer unload and can't get to this site to offer advise.

... gurgle gurgle... this Maersk Triple-E is pulling me under...  gurgle gurgle...

Bumblepants

Prediction: I will always be glad I never loaded up on Tower Bridges or VW Camper Vans.

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

Prediction: I will always be glad I never loaded up on Tower Bridges or VW Camper Vans.

Until they all end up in a landfill in Arizona... and I will have the last cache of them in the World!!!!

(Probably not.  But I wish all of the luck in the World to those that have a bunch.  Although, it appears that they will never retire those sets.)

pharmjod

I got rid of all my tower bridges. I still have some vw campers.

juggles7

There have been some new retirements at S@H USA recently, but why should I share the highlights and deprive others of the fun of scrolling through all 67 pages of 1204 retired products? 

SumoLego

Happy to see they finally retired the Black Monarch's Castle.

Tkatt

A few examples of some the sets that have the distinction of being both "New" and "Retired".

gmonkey76

^You mean to tell me S@H is screwed up? Shocking.

ryjay

Wait a minute....what am i reading, lol.....CCC posted March 1, then all the post following show time, not day, as in posted just today....what happened to the entire month of March posts?   Where there any?  Does anyone else see this or is it just my browser?

madforLEGO

^-Its possible, with other threads going off topic you see less activity in this thread.

Bumblepants

I was trying to think if there was a D2C size set that has been out two full years that if it suddenly retired, would increase in price in any significant amount. Maybe the UCS Slave 1? Reselling game is so saturated I have difficulty imaging even a Town Hall like disappearance doing much to prices.

CCC

Tkatt said:

That set would have been a lot better if it was the Witch Hunt.

BooTheMightyHamster

@juggles7

You make an interesting point.  I spend I dread to think how much with Amazon every month, most of it direct from them, but the occasional purchase from a 3rd party seller.  I do get plenty of 'Rate this seller' emails (Did item arrive on time, did you contact seller etc', and to be honest, if I've got a couple of mins when i spot the mail, I'll fill it in, if I haven't it just gets deleted.  If something arrives on time, undamaged, then it gets 5 stars.

Is that the feedback that you're referring to?  If it is, I'll make more of an effort to leave it in future.

PapaBear

juggles7 said:

"...their own Amazon Warehouse, where they sell damaged products, stopped even displaying their feedback after it dropped below 80%. "
To clarify: they're part of Amazon and I expect they do a great job. Their low score just proves my point that satisfied customers don't leave feedback, the complainers outnumber those giving giving praise, and the seller ends up looking worse than deserved. 

You're probably right.  I don't like Amazon as much as I used to and don't leave feedback anymore.  Weird, since I leave feedback on eBay for everything.  I used to do it all the time, but there is no benefit to me and I am super sick of all those emails I get asking me to leave feedback.  There also seems to be "professional" reviewers now like Gerald Broflovski did for Yelp in South Park.  Honestly, when people start working full time on opinion pieces, I know it's time for me to move on.

juggles7

BooTheMightyHamster said:

@juggles7

You make an interesting point.  I spend I dread to think how much with Amazon every month, most of it direct from them, but the occasional purchase from a 3rd party seller.  I do get plenty of 'Rate this seller' emails (Did item arrive on time, did you contact seller etc', and to be honest, if I've got a couple of mins when i spot the mail, I'll fill it in, if I haven't it just gets deleted.  If something arrives on time, undamaged, then it gets 5 stars.

Is that the feedback that you're referring to?  If it is, I'll make more of an effort to leave it in future.

I sell at Amazon and sometimes buy from other 3rd party sellers, so have been on both sides of the fence. I routinely package and ship 800-900 packages without a single feedback. But let something go wrong and I'm blindsided by a complaint and my rating drops 5% instantly. And I'm glad you asked about this. Amazon makes the situation worse by sending emails asking you if everything is fine with the seller service, etc. Amazon claims they're sharing it with the seller to help them improve, yada yada. But they don't share this pseudo-feedback with sellers, by the way, or they hide it among your seller metrics where you have to go looking for it. Ignore those emails (which do nothing to raise the seller's rating) and leave the seller feedback through your orders page. If the seller has gone to the trouble and expense of shipping you a small set in a box, rather than a bubble mailer, you should leave them good feedback. Believe me, you'll be one in a thousand if you do and the seller will appreciate it more than you could ever imagine. If you ever buy from that seller again, I guarantee you  they'll be picking you the best-condition box they have from then on. I know I do. 

FollowsClosely

I have had just under fifty of #21108 listed for about a year now. No movement. Then just this weekend, eight of them sold. Strange.

Side note: the interest in this thread lately is telling. Not sure what its telling, but it's telling.

SumoLego

I agree with @Bumblepants.  It's more competitive, between more 'professional' and casual resellers; the wide variety of themes and sets available; and the maturity of the product.   (In that there is a higher frequency of reissues because certain themes have been around long enough for a third or fourth cycle of target consumer.)

As a microcosm, is the SW UCS line really worth 'investing' in?  There will always be impatient and impulsive buyers - but can't we assume that all of the major OT vehicles will one day get a reissue?  Shouldn't we dive all over Naboo Fighters and Obi-Wan Starfighters - as they are the least likely to have a reissue?

(I think most investors would scoff at such a proposition.  Whilst sitting on a massive pile of UCS X-Wings they can't sell...)

Bumblepants

Good news everyone! [Prof. Farnsworth meme here]

The #10220 T1 Camper Van has been on backorder for a few weeks in the US. Get ready to make all the monies!

Although, it could just be a result of 2x VIP points and huge demand for a 15 year old set?

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

The #10220 T1 Camper Van has been on backorder for a few weeks in the US.

Just waiting for the next shipment of 500,000 new sets from Mexico... be patient!

juggles7

Poe's #75102 X-Wing Fighter is "call to check" at S@H-USA and is out of stock at most retailers. It's been with us since late 2015. My guess is that is was expected to sell out and retire at end of 2017, but took longer to sell out since they made so many. Does that seem reasonable? 

pharmjod

I think they had multiple production runs. It wasn't actually in the list to retire until this coming December.

juggles7

I didn't know there was such a list.