Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO

#70908 Scuttler has the retiring soon label at S@H US

1265

hoyatables said:

Krennic’s Shuttle got down to 18% off on Amazon. It’s no 27% off, and I’m sure I could probably do better if I were willing to go out and stalk Walmart or Target, but I pulled the trigger to avoid missing out altogether. 

Y-Wing was 20% off last I checked. It’s a fun set. My last Y-wing was two generations back, so it was fun to build concurrently and see them side by side.  

No longer available on Amazon.  Missed it....oh well.

pharmjod

madforLEGO said:

Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?

I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.

stefxan

MrJackson said:

Here in the Philadelphia metro area, we we looking forward to wind chills of -20, or something ridiculous like that.  Wanna trade? Fortunately, work called and is closed tomorrow and Friday cause busses are having issues and there's classrooms with heating systems that are also having issues. So, once my wife and kid recover from this stomach bug, do I build my monorail station for my city, my Ferris Wheel, Carousel, Assembly Square, London Bus, Porsche, or Super Star Destroyer first?

Open all of them, throw it together in a big box and see what you could finish first *gg*

Switchfoot55

Hoping to get any thoughts on how easily people feel I could sell the following two sets. I've looked up the BL prices as well as number of sales, so I have that as a baseline, but I would likely post them here first and really don't have a sense what the desirability of the sets would be. 

#8455 Back-Hoe Loader (no box, no instructions, 100% complete)
#8674 Ferrari F1 Racer 1:8 (no box, no instructions, 100% complete, stickers applied with 1 or 2 of the smaller ones slightly peeling)

Any thoughts or insights would be extremely appreciated!

dougts

pharmjod said:

madforLEGO said:

Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?

I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.

I would dump at least enough to earn back the cash you spent on them. but i've always been of the mind to get my money back out right after the initial retirement spike

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

dougts said:

pharmjod said:

madforLEGO said:

Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?

I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.

I would dump at least enough to earn back the cash you spent on them. but i've always been of the mind to get my money back out right after the initial retirement spike

I always did the same when reselling.
I always (and still do) regretted doing it down the track!

pharmjod

I'm playing with house money at this point. It's all LEGO purchased from LEGO profits. I'm not out any thing other than time.

hoyatables

tmgm528 said:

Kinda in a similar predicament. Keeping my eye out on U and Y Wings from Rogue One on Amazon, currently sitting at 63 and 47 bucks. Odds Amazon drops these prices further?

U Wing is down to 60 even.  And Krennic’s Shuttle dropped a little more. The Rogue One wave was one of the more satisfying ones in a while. I think I have now picked up everything. 

flord

Has the Creator Park Street Townhouse retired?

stlux

@flord In Europe #31065 Park Street Townhouse and #31063 Beachside Vacation have already Retired. The other 2017 3-in-1 creator houses are still available here.

madforLEGO

#31065 already retired? Wasn't that set just released last year?

flord

^ Yes. Must not have been a strong seller. Always meant to pick up a couple on a good deal.

madforLEGO

I managed to find 2 at a TRU near me and at 47 dollars a piece (though Im sure these were down to 39.99 at some point)

BooTheMightyHamster

Do I need to worry about #10255 Assembly Square disappearing anytime soon?  I'm hoping to get that for my birthday in March, and don't want to get there and find that I've missed it.

madforLEGO

BooTheMightyHamster said:

Do I need to worry about #10255 Assembly Square disappearing anytime soon?  I'm hoping to get that for my birthday in March, and don't want to get there and find that I've missed it.

With LEGO who knows ultimately, but I see it being out until at least the end of the year.

piratemania7

As for the Assembly Square it is an anniversary set and somewhat special as a result. Therefore it could either last a while or go out the way of Town Hall. I would bet on it being around for a while yet as LEGO seems to be more into allowing everyone the option of buying a set at retail versus paying aftermarket prices.

Also, we have a number of modulars still available that came out before this so I would assume one or two of those would go first.

long story short no one knows but I bet you have time for that.

BooTheMightyHamster

Cheers both!

SumoLego

My best guess would be that the Detective Office would be the next most likely candidate - even before the older Parisian Restaurant.

However, I would expect all of the current modulars to have extraordinary long lives.

madforLEGO

piratemania7 said:

As for the Assembly Square it is an anniversary set and somewhat special as a result. Therefore it could either last a while or go out the way of Town Hall. I would bet on it being around for a while yet as LEGO seems to be more into allowing everyone the option of buying a set at retail versus paying aftermarket prices.

Also, we have a number of modulars still available that came out before this so I would assume one or two of those would go first.

long story short no one knows but I bet you have time for that.

I think even the Town Hall lasted for about (or just under) 2 years though, for what that is worth.

Fizyx

madforLEGO said:

I think even the Town Hall lasted for about (or just under) 2 years though, for what that is worth.

www.retiringsets.com doesn't update nearly often enough imo, but they DO have this nice thing that they do where they have some graphs about the longevity of certain themes (Namely the Modular Building and the Star Wars UCS) that is very interesting to look at.  Honestly if I had time I would would really like to put together a similar database for as many sets as I could, and I might try to do so in the future. 

Anyway, the Town Hall did have an abnormally short life span... but WAS still out for more than 2 years.  The lifespan of all the modular's around it all exceed 4 years, all the way back to Green Grocers, which was just over 2 years again.  I would be surprised if they cut AS as short as the Town Hall considering how much interest in the theme has grown in the last few years (along with LEGO as a whole), and also considering how much of an outlier the Town Hall production lifespan is in comparison to the other Modular Buildings.

(You can find the graph for Modular Building product lifespan here: https://retiringsets.com/lego-modular-buildings-list/ )

pharmjod

My bet is on the Parisian Restaurant going next. Of course I could be wrong, but that is just what I'm going with. 

Fizyx

pharmjod said:

My bet is on the Parisian Restaurant going next. Of course I could be wrong, but that is just what I'm going with. 

Yeah, personally I'm torn between it and the Detective's Office.  They are the two oldest, with the PR being older by a year... but I think the PR has been wildly more popular than the DO as well.  I kind of think it will be the DO this year, and the PR maybe next year or the year after, but I don't have anything to base that speculation off of other than gut feelings.

Pmh

If a modular goes then it will be Parisian restaurant,i think so as well.

It is the last modular before they slightly changed the design starting with DO and it doesn't fit so well with the others, there is even a new restaurant in town now.

It should do reasonably ok in the aftermarket as well I think,maybe similar to grand emporium. Its the best modular imo and will probably remain so for quiet some time.

CCC

LegoFanTexas said:

Not that I'm rooting for it... Well, the LEGO fan in me is... I think the DS could use an update... it has been so long since it was released (5 years) that it is due for a rehash. A Mark II version, a bit larger, better and more detailed minifigs, modern instructions (the current ones now show their age), and sell it for $499 with about 4,200 parts.

Just looking back at some old posts - Aug 2013. He wasn't far off the piece count, spot on price.

prevere

He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.

SumoLego

prevere said:

He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.

Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

prevere said:

He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.

Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 

Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

(That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)

eggshen

Pitfall69 said:

SumoLego said:

prevere said:

He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.

Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 

Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

(That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)

Anyone that knows what love is will understand.

pharmjod

@Pitfall69 do you pedal to wraithbabes?

Pitfall69

pharmjod said:

@Pitfall69 do you pedal to wraithbabes?

Of course. Who wouldn't???

tmgm528

Pitfall69 said:

SumoLego said:

prevere said:

He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.

Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 

Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

(That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)

You can blame me - if I didnt know. 

Try to shame me~

1265

^^ Symbolical messaging.

Pitfall69

Does anyone think the old Death Star will benefit from the price increase of the current Death Star? I haven't seen it yet, but was just wondering what you guys thought.

bandit778

@Pitfall69 you'll have to excuse the tumbleweed in this thread at the moment, someone started the annual reseller/scalpers argument over in the Chinese counterfeit thread of all places. Youngsters just don't appreciate the tradition of having that argument in this thread.

As for your question (and this is a complete idiots thoughts on this you understand), in my humble opinion the price of the old Death Star going forward will depend a lot on whether the newer one stays as the long term Star Wars flagship set or if it gets discontinued because of the Falcon (or something else if the rumours of a large Cloud City set are to be believed) taking that mantle.
If the new one does get discontinued I would imagine the older sets price would rise quite well in the mid to long term as there are probably more of these stored due to the anticipation that the new version would be vastly updated. If the new one stays put and is easily available, I don't see much happening with the old set due to the similarities between the two.

CCC

By old and new, do you mean the past and current DS, or the current and the next DS? :-)

bandit778

Yes. :)

SumoLego

bandit778 said:

...Youngsters just don't appreciate the tradition of having that argument in this thread...

Sometimes parents just don't understand!

Fizyx

Back on topic: I'm trying to decide if #40290 is going to be popular after this year.  It obviously has quite a bit of appeal to the kinds of fans that comment here, and I'm definitely getting one for myself... but I have a few sets that are highly unlikely to go on sale any time in the near future that are on my list, and I am in a position to purchase them on Jan. 28th, so I'm considering trying to get 2 or 3 extra #40290s to keep on hand for a few years at least, since they're small and easy to store without going out of my way. Of course, it depends how many LEGO made and if they're going to flood the market with them, but for the price point, and the relatively short offer period, I don't think there will be so many that the swamp the market.  I'm pretty sure it will be worth it for a few bucks at least, but am wondering what the rest of you all think about the set.

(Of course, this is all assuming that all the boxes arrive in good shape and not crushed by the large set they ship with >.< )

SumoLego

Is it going to perform like the Gingerbread House or like the three Classic Promos?  (Space, Pirate, Castle.)

I suspect this will be popular.

CCC

I think it is going to be a £20 or so set (for immediate future) and will only hold value if unopened. Apart from the 60 years brick, there doesn't seem to be much in there that is hard to find and it is mainly cheap parts. So it's about 20% off if you sell it. So not bad if you are buying exclusives, not great if you are buying regular retail sets.

shikadi

What are the set #s for the classic promos you're talking about? I think I missed those.

VorpalRyu

@shikadi the classic promos were:

#5004419 Classic Knights Minifigure

#5003082 Classic Pirate Minifigure

#5002812 Classic Spaceman Minifigure

monstblitz

Were the Pirate and Space promos before the Knight?  I don't remember seeing those.

CCC

Space 2014
Pirate 2015
Knight 2016

bricktuary

Did they do well then? 

pharmjod

I got a ton of the space ones but none of the pirate or knight ones. I'd love to trade someone.

piratemania7

bricktuary said:

Did they do well then? 

I think all three have “settled” somewhat in price. I think you could expect more (as with most recently retired or discontinued sets) just after each one became unavailable but now none would seem to be too harmful to the wallet.

CCC

piratemania7 said:

bricktuary said:

Did they do well then? 

I think all three have “settled” somewhat in price. I think you could expect more (as with most recently retired or discontinued sets) just after each one became unavailable but now none would seem to be too harmful to the wallet.

Yes, there are many on the market. They are nice, but nothing special. It wouldn't surprise me if the new anniversary set goes the same way. Initial interest followed by the realisation that the sets themselves are nothing that special.

Bumblepants

The Pirate one is the weakest as the minifigure is not a classic one sadly. Still a nice figure but loses nostalgia points which fuel the interest in these.