Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego

MugenPower said:

^^ Don't remind me... I keep wondering if that's what's actually inside...

It's probably just filled with nougat.

stevemack

Mmmmmmm nougat

madforLEGO

PapaBear said:

IMO The Simpsons House is a beautiful and great set to build.  Amazon still has them, but they are going for $250 on ebay.  That is a really good sign.  I have a bunch for resale, but won't be buying anymore.  I think it will do fairly well.  I don't know if a set being out for a long time means that it won't do well.  Most resellers are turned off by sets that have been out for a long time, so there may be no rush to buy up the last copies.

Until Lepin makes one and sells theirs for 40 USD.

pharmjod

CCC said:

^ I wouldn't invest in either Cinderella or Frozen ones. They seem to be the X-wings and MFs of the Princess line. 

As always, buy in is key. I got a bunch of the first Cinderella castle for $30 each and sold them all in the last 3 months for $30 profit each after fees and shipping.

CCC

pharmjod said:

CCC said:

^ I wouldn't invest in either Cinderella or Frozen ones. They seem to be the X-wings and MFs of the Princess line. 

As always, buy in is key. I got a bunch of the first Cinderella castle for $30 each and sold them all in the last 3 months for $30 profit each after fees and shipping.

Yes, that is true of course. Even Construct-A-Zurg was a good investment if the price was right! When talking of whether something is a good investment, I assume buying at RRP.

stevemack

Gone are the days of doubling profit from RRP purchases.  My target is now ~30-50% off or I don't buy it.

pharmjod

If buying at RRP is your guage for a good investment, you should probably not be investing at all in LEGO. The only set for me at least that has been a good RRP purchase was the Dragon sanctuary.

CCC

pharmjod said:

If buying at RRP is your guage for a good investment, you should probably not be investing at all in LEGO. The only set for me at least that has been a good RRP purchase was the Dragon sanctuary.

While I agree on that, how can you judge whether a set is a good investment or not across the whole market place? The only real way to tell if something was a good investment for all is to compare the market price to the RRP. If it is down to buy in price, this varies dramatically.

Yodalicious

^ & ^^ The issue is that most people seem to ask “is set X a good investment?” They don’t ask as much “is set X a good investment at X price?” So when they ask the first, more general question, then it’s guaged against RRP, to @CCC’s point. 

PapaBear

I don't have the ability to get exclusive sets lower than RRP unless it's during rare sales like the Black Friday sale at S&H, so I always gauge against RRP.

pharmjod

I don't invest in exclusives as it has largely proven to be a losing proposition. Anymore, unless you are doing huge volume at a small profit the best bet is to find quality sets that are off the radar that quietly disappear with little fanfare. So it becomes a little bit of art and luck mixed in with science. With the Dragon sanctuary for example, nearly all of mine were purchased at msrp with little discount. I saw a little chatter that it was disappearing, and bought up everyone I could find locally. It was a gamble that paid off. I've got plenty of other duds though.

You can use msrp as a guage. I do. But only in the context of "at this buy in price if it gets back to msrp I will make $x." At the end of the day even dogs can make decent money if you get them cheap enough.

PapaBear

Fair enough.  I don't really shop for LEGOs locally because then I have to cover the cost of gas when I sell things.  There are also never any good deals when I go to stores, so the trips are mostly wasteful.  I try to buy online but never really come across great deals either.  S@H is the main place for deals when they have promotions.  I don't really buy much for resale anyways though.

ryjay

SumoLego said:

^ Give or take five years or a decade...

....and then it will be re-released

KingAlanI

And small differences in price or transaction costs can make a huge difference in profit margin

Women of NASA at MSRP?
Research Institute seems similarly situated and has done very well, but is there something I'm missing here?

Fizyx

KingAlanI said:

And small differences in price or transaction costs can make a huge difference in profit margin

Women of NASA at MSRP?
Research Institute seems similarly situated and has done very well, but is there something I'm missing here?

Possibly that at some price point, the disparity in regional demand could depress returns for some length of time. (IE once it's cheaper to buy a set from Europe and have it ship than to purchase in the US, then prices in the US will plateau until the excess sets that seem to be stacked up in Europe are distributed in a fashion that is more in line with regional demand for the the product.)

However, given that this is an Ideas set (so unlikely to be reproduced) and the fact that it is in very high demand in the US and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, and that LEGO has clearly had problems keeping it in supply despite clearly manufacturing a far larger number of sets than they had for the Research Institute, I think the set will do very well in years to come, personally, especially if LEGO continues to grow in popularity.

madforLEGO

KingAlanI said:

And small differences in price or transaction costs can make a huge difference in profit margin

Women of NASA at MSRP?
Research Institute seems similarly situated and has done very well, but is there something I'm missing here?

I dunno. Research institute was 19.99 when it was out. Ill probably get 40 for mine now, so not sure what constitutes as 'well' but not doubling or tripling my money is a poor performer IMO, especially when you factor in fees.  The Ideas set did well was the BTTF Delorean set, THAT is a performer. However, I think the DeLorean set also all but ensured that future Ideas sets are not going to be overlooked by the wags that think they will make their millions off of LEGO on eBay, BL, or Amazon.

KingAlanI

Thanks for calming me down. ;)
I might be more interested at a slight discount - VIP Points if at S@H, redcard if target has it, etc

Yodalicious

^^ Was thinking the same thing. Was at a TRU yesterday and they had 4 of them and I thought and thought and thought and eventually left them there. 

prevere

The OTHER Ideas NASA set will be interesting to watch at EOL - Saturn V. Seems to be a sure fire lock for longstanding demand, but is it a trap since everyone else is thinking the same thing?

FollowsClosely

Saturn V is a guaranteed winner. If i was still in the game i would go deep with ‘‘tis one.

madforLEGO

prevere said:

The OTHER Ideas NASA set will be interesting to watch at EOL - Saturn V. Seems to be a sure fire lock for longstanding demand, but is it a trap since everyone else is thinking the same thing?

FollowsClosely said:

Saturn V is a guaranteed winner. If i was still in the game i would go deep with ‘‘tis one.

Lepin makes me wary of proclaiming any set a 'winner' now. I think it should do well in the long term only because of the subject matter. More often than naught when you look at a set as a seller you have to look at the long term at this point, as you have to see a clear out of the eBay millionaire wannabes of their stocks first, then see the large scale resellers that want to make their 25-50 dollars a set clear their stocks out, then you can finally sell yours.

jonboy2000

For the US resellers...what's the best/cheapest shipping service to use for sending a modular box size Lego set?

SumoLego

I've found USPS to be the cheapest.  UPS and Fedex are disproportionately expensive once you get to a certain sized box.

PapaBear

jonboy2000 said:

For the US resellers...what's the best/cheapest shipping service to use for sending a modular box size Lego set?

Depends on how many zones it has to go.  If you are not shipping far, then USPS will be the cheapest, but if you have to ship across the country then FedEx is best.  I never uses UPS.

It also depends on how isolated the addressee is and how busy the courier is in that area.  San Diego always costs me tons to ship and I just had to pay $30 to ship a Pet Shop to Colorado which is unusual.

pharmjod

FedEx is way cheaper if you want to send it quickly. I just got a UCS Tumbler ready to ship KY to CA. $44 usps priority, $25 FedEx ground home. Both about 4 days.

KingAlanI

That's one reason I focus on parts and polybags - easier to ship. However, Women of NASA is relatively small. It fits snugly in a Priority Mail padded flatrate envelope or a number 4 bubblemailer. It doesn't quite fit in a gallon ziploc bag but I can use 2, one over each end, to protect against scuffing.
I got 2 at a LEGO store on the 9th - 2x VIP and promos was a sweetener for buying extras at MSRP

bluedragon

Please don’t ship sets in envelopes. High chance of getting damaged no matter how many ziplocks you use.

madforLEGO

bluedragon said:

Please don’t ship sets in envelopes. High chance of getting damaged no matter how many ziplocks you use.

Yeah, it is bad enough that TRU and Bestbuy have been using them to ship Dimensions boxes. I really hate using bubble envelopes after seeing what USPS has done to a few of them in transit.

datsunrobbie

FedEx, UPS, DHL, and USPS all have websites that will let you get shipping costs. I use USPS flat rate boxes for most shipping that I do (which is not really a lot) because the boxes are free, rates are usually close to what the others charge, and the post office is only a block away.

FollowsClosely

The Palace Cinema is the first modular that I have not heavily invested in. I don't regret that, but the initial bump is more than the last two modulars.

stevemack

Snap.  Modulars are still profitable but they're no where near what they used to be.  If you can get a good buy in price then it's still good to invest in (quite hard these days on modulars to get a big discount though)

prevere

It's going to be hit and miss with the next few modulars. I can see the intrigue of a cinema even for casual fans. Good standalone. Not as much for PR or DO. 

And on a larger market trend, we we could be seeing the very early beginning start of the pendulum swinging the other way with the masses investing in Lego.

MrJackson

@prevere I would have to disagree about the PR - I think it's the best standalone besides the Cinema. I think the others, especially the Detectives Office, work best among the others. I've had a number of customers who, when shopping for a first modular, go with other the restaurant or the Cinema as they look ok alone or in a street. 

pharmjod

prevere said:

And on a larger market trend, we we could be seeing the very early beginning start of the pendulum swinging the other way with the masses investing in Lego.

I sure hope so.

CCC

I think most of the single fronted models (so including the Brick Bank) look quite good by themselves and would be of interest to people with a connection to the type of building. The double ones not so good by themselves.

madforLEGO

FollowsClosely said:

The Palace Cinema is the first modular that I have not heavily invested in. I don't regret that, but the initial bump is more than the last two modulars.

Im not too surprised, it is before Christmas and they ran out of these faster than the Pet shops this time last year. However, I believe that initially the Pets shop shot up to around 200 USD only to fall back to prices around 150-160 USD if I recall. A lot of people are content with making a whole 20-30 dollars after eBay fees. I swear many forgot about those fees and actually lose money when they sell something. Pet shops were rarely found at discount and usually where not easy to stack at those discounts either (when they appeared) so not sure how people are selling them for only 120 USD now (as some on eBay have apparently gone for recently).

PapaBear

Yea, Pet Shops jumped to $200 immediately and then fell back down.  S@H actually did get rid of a bunch for $120, but I don't know how long that lasted.  eBay prices are really weird a lot of times.  Some Cinemas appear to be going for $250 and some are going for $150.  Go figure.

Pmh

cinema at 250 is just fake,there are tens of thousends of them and only few get sold.

only good modular investment wise is the grand emporium because that was retired just before lego became a sort of hype while it still is a modern building when compared to café corner and grocery.

all the other modular are bad investments,unless its worth it for you to wait for months or years to make 20$ on 1 of them out of your stash of 10 lol.

ideas sets have the best prospect imo,no risk of re release,relativly small production runs (some of them at least) and available for a limited time. it is kinda easy to miss them. its near impossible to have missed a modular after grand emporium.

Bumblepants

I would argue that the Fire Brigade was actually the last great modular investment over Grand Emporium. (Not counting the surprise disappearance of Town Hall). As others have said with regard to Ideas sets and the Elves Sanctuary, Monster Fighter Zombie set etc... Those kinds of short lived, unexpected retirements are about the only good option anymore. Even Ideas sets are drying up as they produce more of them and for longer. I am pretty much done with Lego investing unless I find absurdly discounted sets in a clearance section. Even then I limit it to things I wouldn't mind keeping for myself or kids if it doesn't pan out.

exciter1

Bumblepants said:

I would argue that the Fire Brigade was actually the last great modular investment over Grand Emporium. (Not counting the surprise disappearance of Town Hall). As others have said with regard to Ideas sets and the Elves Sanctuary, Monster Fighter Zombie set etc... Those kinds of short lived, unexpected retirements are about the only good option anymore. Even Ideas sets are drying up as they produce more of them and for longer. I am pretty much done with Lego investing unless I find absurdly discounted sets in a clearance section. Even then I limit it to things I wouldn't mind keeping for myself or kids if it doesn't pan out.

Baby Wind Dragon is outperforming Dragon Sanctuary

KingAlanI

bluedragon said:

Please don’t ship sets in envelopes. High chance of getting damaged no matter how many ziplocks you use.

I know the ziplocs won't do anything against crushing, that's why I specified scuffing.
Maybe a bubblemailer would work as inner packaging with a box on the outside.

hasthesauce

#21312 Women of Nasa back in stock on both Amazon and S@H. Massive 550 resellers on Amazon alone in addition to the new stock. Thoughts on long term value given the new stock and sheer amount of resellers piling up?

Bumblepants

^I think Research Institute + Lego making more will make it not that valuable. Everyone has their eye on this one and that usually ends up with a flooded aftermarket. Thanks for the tip though as I got one for me.

Staffy

It' is an interesting set from a market perspective. As the father of two young girls I want to get them this set to inspire them into STEM,  But they are into horses and dragons and puppies, how interesting would they find it?  They would love Saturn V but only because it would be nearly as big as them. 

Fizyx

Bumblepants said:

^I think Research Institute + Lego making more will make it not that valuable. Everyone has their eye on this one and that usually ends up with a flooded aftermarket. Thanks for the tip though as I got one for me.

Actually, I feel like, in the long run, RI could end up being a positive for #21312 as opposed to a net negative, as I think lots of people may be pushed to #21312 as an alternative to RI, but at a lower price point.  Obviously this means the price of #21312 will probably never equal RI, but it also means that demand for #21312 will likely stay higher than a lot of people assume.

On the minus side... this is probably in the long, long term (like a decade+ out), and for investment purposes that's probably a longer timeline than most people want to deal with keeping at set in inventory for returns that still could end up being not that great.

CCC

Staffy said:

It' is an interesting set from a market perspective. As the father of two young girls I want to get them this set to inspire them into STEM,  But they are into horses and dragons and puppies, how interesting would they find it?  They would love Saturn V but only because it would be nearly as big as them. 

Get them horses and dragons and puppies (that is, Elves sets). Don't put them off LEGO by buying them a display set with little play value compared to what they like.

Fizyx

CCC said:

Staffy said:

It' is an interesting set from a market perspective. As the father of two young girls I want to get them this set to inspire them into STEM,  But they are into horses and dragons and puppies, how interesting would they find it?  They would love Saturn V but only because it would be nearly as big as them. 

Get them horses and dragons and puppies (that is, Elves sets). Don't put them off LEGO by buying them a display set with little play value compared to what they like.

I would say get them horses and dragons and puppies NOW... and when they are older and more interested in cool things other than horses and dragons and puppies, THEN get them a set like RI or Women of Nasa.  I think its definitely worth considering for those sets that a lot of what makes them inspiring and neat is completely intangible.  They are not play sets,  they are a concrete representation of decades of progress in science and discovery that you can sit on your desk. 

I think that this is where a lot of people who have differing opinions on these sets tend to diverge.  Many like them because they aren't play sets at all, and they want play sets.  But many also like them because of what they represent and depict instead, and don't care about any play value involved.  If you're getting these sets for a child or young adult, I think that can be a very important distinction to remember for them, also.  Just like regular adults, some children appreciate the former more, and some the latter.

JamesJT

I’m getting fed up of reselling Lego. There are too many resellers, over production by and re-releases by Lego and Chinese copies but the thing that finished it for me is the number of “unauthorised translations” on ebay and the “charge back” from PayPal. I can’t wait until my stash is gone.

PapaBear

^I get a ton of chragebacks too.  No need for someone with 550 feedback to try to chargeback a $400 set as an "unauthorized transaction" or someone else to try to charge back a set 2 months after it's been delivered.  Even if they don't get away with $$$, to even let people do this is ludicrous. 

prevere

Got the "unauthorized" request recently for a Lego item sold in April.