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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    edited October 2017
    Aanchir said:
    exciter1 said:
    Argonaut said:
    With Lego struggling financially, at least there's no chance of them re-issuing the Taj Mahal (10189).  No logic in them doing a new version or indeed any demand for new.

    This used to be no.2 after the first MF in terms of rarity and value but is now probably no.1.   :)


    Oh my, there are rumors swirling right now Taj Mahal might be updated for a release next year.
    Have those rumors come from any kind of source besides the Blocks Magazine “rumour mill” column? Because after all that nonsense about Nexo Knights ending this year and the summer wave possibly even being cancelled, I can no longer trust that as a source. For all I know they just make this stuff up off the top of their heads to generate buzz. It’s not like when a specific person with a track record for accurate insider information gives us hints at what to expect.

    That said, I don’t think LEGO’s financial slowdown is reason to assume they wouldn’t re-release or redesign a big set like that. That depends more on how particular sets like that are selling, as it would regardless of the company’s overall financial state. After all, the company’s still making way bigger profits and sales than when the original Taj Mahal came out.
    The Blocks Magazine article appears to be the culprit that started the discussion.  There is another Creator Expert release in the queue for next year.
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 875
    prevere said:
    Frankly, if a rumor like a new UCS MF turns out to be true, I'll take a serious look at almost gossip.
    I mean, the UCS Falcon has been "predicted" to return for years now—the fact that it eventually happened shouldn't be any surprise.

    And when Blocks reported on that, it did so as a secondary or even tertiary source, after it was practically confirmed by much more reliable rumormongers on sites like Eurobricks or this very website. I'd sooner believe those sorts of sources, who have established reputations for accuracy that they have a vested interest in maintaining, than a magazine that recycles hearsay without attributing any sources and has a track record that is mixed at best.
    sid3windr
  • neilfdnneilfdn West Sussex, UKMember Posts: 2
    I noticed yesterday that 75149 Resistance X-Wing is now listed as Retired on [email protected] that one came from left-field!
  • ChgoMattChgoMatt USAMember Posts: 108

    From the LEGO Facebook page:

    Don’t miss the last screening at the Palace Cinema before the lights go down for the last time. This icon of any modular street corner will be retired soon; so get your tickets for cinema classics like Forever Sorting and The Brick Separator now.

    SumoLegoLyichirlegomental
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,271
    I wonder, is that on the same timetable as the Exo-Suit being de-commissioned?

    As I recall, that took about TEN months.  It was a slow de-commission...  we may have time enough to view the LotR Trilogy and Hobbit Trilogy - extended versions, and the commentaries... and the bonus features... before lights go down.
    preveresid3windrsnowhitie
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    LEGO has been selling hard the idea that Palace Cinema is going away for about the last 2-3 months now, no doubt they want to sell out before they have to discount them to move them like the Pet Shop last Christmas.
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 324
    Now with Dimensions being cancelled I wonder how what Level, team and character packs will shoot up in price.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,348
    Now with Dimensions being cancelled I wonder how what Level, team and character packs will shoot up in price.
    Wouldn't the cancellation of Dimensions make their future prospects dimmer? Not that they were bright to begin with...
    SumoLegoprevere
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    edited October 2017
    samiam391 said:
    Now with Dimensions being cancelled I wonder how what Level, team and character packs will shoot up in price.
    Wouldn't the cancellation of Dimensions make their future prospects dimmer? Not that they were bright to begin with...
    Any characters not normally in a regular LEGO set, likely will rise IMO. Cybermen and Daleks, Doctor Who, even Knight rider and Mr T, Excalibur Batman, and characters like that that will not be found in a standard set any time soon.
    The later sets may be harder to find as it is unclear how long the latest packs will be out for.
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 951
    I believe all the newer packs will go up since they will have a limited production.  I can see the power puff and teen titans go being harder to come by, causing an increase in aftermarket pricing.
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 324
    I can see the level packs and certain characters going up. Like characters that perform certain actions.
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 694
    I can see Gremlins and maybe ET going up. Those figures are amazing, and we're very unlikely to see them again.
    Jackad7
  • Eaglefan344Eaglefan344 St Louis, MOMember Posts: 10
    Might not be the right forum for this question, but I'm looking at purchasing 3677 Red Cargo Train and 10233 Horizon Express in the next 6 months. 3677 is currently going for $220 new on Bricklink ($160 MSRP) and 10233 is going for $200 ($130 MSRP). Which one should I pick up first? 
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I would think that Lego will always have some sort of cargo train in production, although it would be in different colors.  Horizon Express is kind of a unique train so I think it's value would go higher the longer you wait. It won't tech Emerald Night prices but I think it will top the red cargo train.
    SumoLego
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 468
    edited October 2017
    Owning both, I would recommend the Horizon Express.  It is a creator set and an interesting build and final piece.  The Red Cargo Train is kind of plain, with the back cars having very little detail.  There are usually two cargo train sets available from Lego 24/7.  I think the ones they have now look better.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,271
    (And you have to buy two of them... of course...)
    Switchfoot55FollowsCloselyBumblepantsPitfall69
  • arathemisarathemis sometimes here, sometimes thereMember Posts: 373
    edited October 2017
    How do you guys think the Temple of Airjitzu will do after its retirement?
    Apparently on some areas it is sold in shops at 50$/pounds off. Kind of the same as PetShop last year.
    I expected the set to be liked more, and a buying frenzy to happen when "retiring soon" label appeared for it. Apparently i was wrong.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 921
    Dont think it will be amazing, given ninjago city is now out, why would people pay a premium for a smaller set
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,130
    edited October 2017
    ^ and ^^ I think it will fare ok. For the most it can be had at a discount and that will be a huge drop for it right there.
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 324
    arathemis said:
    How do you guys think the Temple of Airjitzu will do after its retirement?
    Apparently on some areas it is sold in shops at 50$/pounds off. Kind of the same as PetShop last year.
    I expected the set to be liked more, and a buying frenzy to happen when "retiring soon" label appeared for it. Apparently i was wrong.
    Probably because there are tons of them around. I bought one for 20% off and there were many others in the store I bought it from. Now for Australia to have a 'premium' set like that in abundance is strange.
    Maybe it just didn't sell like Lego hoped and maybe that will have an effect on it's price years down the line.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    Too many Ninjago sets being out there (namely Ninjago City) may also be a reason why they may not be rising right now.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    edited October 2017
    Might not be the right forum for this question, but I'm looking at purchasing 3677 Red Cargo Train and 10233 Horizon Express in the next 6 months. 3677 is currently going for $220 new on Bricklink ($160 MSRP) and 10233 is going for $200 ($130 MSRP). Which one should I pick up first? 
    Echoing earlier sentiments - definitely pick up the Horizon first. It's on a steeper curve and most buyers invariably end up with at least 2 or more.  
     I'd still pick up the Red cargo train when you get a chance - Obviously it has the red battery box (which is unique to set) but the box car is quite cool and, though basic, offers the chance to ship nuclear waste!  The track maintenance wagon and truck is also really solid.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 622
    Re-release of Taj Mahal pretty much kills Lego as any kind of long term investment, right?  Pretty strong signal that nothing is off limits for a re-release, I'd expect all the older sets on the secondary market to start taking a hit.  I doubt I'll ever buy an older set on secondary market again.  I'll wait for the eventual re-release. 
    PapaBearCharmiefcb
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,583
    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
  • alaskaguyalaskaguy Member Posts: 335
    Nobody collected the first edition of "Tom Sawyer" thinking that it would be worth a lot of money in the future. A lot of people have done that with the Taj Mahal.
     
    That first bubble has grown to a massive size and will take a long time to resolve before there is even any potential for there to be "prosperous times" again. I think even that's largely a pipe dream. There are so many people that have stockpiled certain sets thinking they're making a million. I know someone with 100 Tower Bridges who thinks they'll be worth $1,000 when they retire. It will take these people a long time to sell off all their foolish stock.
    That's the problem with "speculating" - lack of an accurate crystal ball.

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.




  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,905
    edited October 2017
    The Falcon was more of a re-do than re-release. Taj is a mind-blower, a true re-release of a cherished long retired set. But these two scenarios stacked with the Winter Toy Shop, still represent only 3 sets.

    With LEGO producing 700+ sets in a year, the chance of a given set to be re-released is still very low. So standard supply/demand factors still apply for EOL profitability.

    The wild card in all this is how resellers respond. Will they dump stock faster than a hot potato, or ignore it and wait it out? That action will be very interesting to watch.
    BumblepantsLuLegostlux
  • chertikchertik Member Posts: 43
    Honestly, the Taj Mahal re-release makes no sense to me. If I remember correctly, I bought it on sale back in 2010, just before it retired, and it's been on sale for quite a while by that point. It's a huge, expensive set, and will be more expensive this time around than the $300 that it used to retail for.. Granted, market conditions might have changed since 2010, but I really don't see it selling well after an initial buy spurt.

    Why not re-release older and potentially less pricy sculptures, like the Statue of Liberty (3450), or the Lego minifig (3723) or Lego Dragon (3724)? Or, and this might sound outrageous, something original? There are so many easily recognizable buildings that Lego hasn't attempted yet.. a Lego Colosseum maybe?

    /rant
    FollowsClosely
  • MrJacksonMrJackson Member Posts: 405
    Argonaut said:
    With Lego struggling financially, at least there's no chance of them re-issuing the Taj Mahal (10189).  No logic in them doing a new version or indeed any demand for new.

    This used to be no.2 after the first MF in terms of rarity and value but is now probably no.1.   :)


    You were saying?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Re-release of Taj Mahal pretty much kills Lego as any kind of long term investment, right?  Pretty strong signal that nothing is off limits for a re-release, I'd expect all the older sets on the secondary market to start taking a hit.  I doubt I'll ever buy an older set on secondary market again.  I'll wait for the eventual re-release. 
    on a mass sale - yes.  I'd say Modular's are probably safe still, and limited run superhero sets with unique minifigs.  UCS star wars sets that aren't MF/XW/SD/DS.  there will always be certain sets that will do well, just harder to pick the winners and avoid the losers.

    I would also say that the most obvious death should be the "hold for years and years" model. That's just asking for trouble.  Best bet is to get your money out within the first 2 years of retirement
    monstblitz
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    alaskaguy said:


    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.




    in the short term, when people are liquidating all that pent-up inventory, yes.  but down the road, the aftermarket prices could be worse as many fewer people are stashing stuff away for future gains that appear to be diminishing at best, and gone at worse
    SumoLego
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,583
    samiam391 said:
    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    Wishful thinking in my opinion.

    Nobody collected the first edition of "Tom Sawyer" thinking that it would be worth a lot of money in the future. A lot of people have done that with the Taj Mahal.
     
    That first bubble has grown to a massive size and will take a long time to resolve before there is even any potential for there to be "prosperous times" again. I think even that's largely a pipe dream. There are so many people that have stockpiled certain sets thinking they're making a million. I know someone with 100 Tower Bridges who thinks they'll be worth $1,000 when they retire. It will take these people a long time to sell off all their foolish stock.

    There are a few niche markets, but largely the LEGO "holy grail" for re-selling is gone. There are no sure fire bets anymore. LEGO re-selling, especially with LEGO sets, is shaky ground. I no longer plan to be involved. 

    Taj-Mahal has not been around long enough to be a "long-term" investment. Nor has the the original UCS Millennium Falcon. 

    The first Taj Mahal set was released in 2008 and retired around 2010, a mere 7 years ago. I was still in my Dark Age then, and the "Lego worth more than gold" articles seem to date from late 2015. A large part of the reason a first edition of "Tom Sawyer" is worth big money is BECAUSE nobody was buying it as an investment. As a long-term investment, the Tower Bridge might be worth $1000 per copy - 30 or more years from now, when LEGO is sold as a download to your 3D printer and "prefabricated" LEGO is a rarity.

    #10179 was a limited edition when it was released in 2007, with a "certificate of authenticity" to make sure Star Wars memorabilia collectors who never even owned a LEGO set before would want in. Prices on the collectibles market went up, eventually reaching heights that brought mass-media attention to the LEGO aftermarket. The recent reissues should blow that bubble to bits. I totally agree that the days of flipping a new set for 2 or 3 times retail a year after retirement are probably gone. But nostalgia is a powerful thing. In 2050 an MISB Construct-a-Zurg might even be worth more than $20.
    bluedragon
  • alaskaguyalaskaguy Member Posts: 335
    dougts said:
    in the short term, when people are liquidating all that pent-up inventory, yes.  but down the road, the aftermarket prices could be worse as many fewer people are stashing stuff away for future gains that appear to be diminishing at best, and gone at worse
    Very probably. So the time to keep a watchful eye out and snap things up is at hand.

    As for "future stuff" - well, I am now buying "as stuff is released" - so I will not have to "catch up" on discontinued stuff in the future, when the problem you describe rears its ugly head.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 468
    I won't buy Ninjago to resell, I haven't bought anything to resell this year and I don't plan on it.  I expect most resellers that are left will do the same.  The drop in price on the Falcon is disheartening and makes me want to get rid of it for virtually zero gain.

    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    #10179 dropped $3,000 so far and will drop more when LEGO finally gets the new Falcon back in stock.  Prices will rise, but not significantly.  There are too many compounding factors such as an increasing reduced amount of new AFOLs and people that come out of their dark ages that want the old sets.

    alaskaguy said:

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.
    I don't follow you.  How will LEGO become more affordable?  Reducing the amount of resellers should cause aftermarket prices to rise.  Although, I really don't think the rise will be significant as I just stated.  The only way it would become cheaper is if LEGO damages their brand so much that they decide to lower prices or start sales on exclusive sets again.
    SumoLegosid3windr
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,583
    PapaBear said:
    I won't buy Ninjago to resell, I haven't bought anything to resell this year and I don't plan on it.  I expect most resellers that are left will do the same.  The drop in price on the Falcon is disheartening and makes me want to get rid of it for virtually zero gain.

    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    #10179 dropped $3,000 so far and will drop more when LEGO finally gets the new Falcon back in stock.  Prices will rise, but not significantly.  There are too many compounding factors such as an increasing reduced amount of new AFOLs and people that come out of their dark ages that want the old sets.

    alaskaguy said:

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.
    I don't follow you.  How will LEGO become more affordable?  Reducing the amount of resellers should cause aftermarket prices to rise.  Although, I really don't think the rise will be significant as I just stated.  The only way it would become cheaper is if LEGO damages their brand so much that they decide to lower prices or start sales on exclusive sets again.
    In 30 years (or more), the last remaining MISB #10179s will be worth crazy money to the few people who want them, just like there are a few people who can and will pay crazy money for an original painting or any other collectible. Others will pay crazy money for broken pieces of pottery, just because they are thousands of years old. As long as there are people who have more money than other people, there will be people willing to spend large amounts of money to own things simply because other people cannot afford to buy them. I expect my heirs will have given away all my LEGO before it becomes worth much more than I paid for it.

    If the bottom falls out of the speculators market, more people will be able to buy sets at MSRP on the primary market. Secondary market prices will rise, but probably at a slower rate than they do currently, as resellers won't have to compete with as many scalpers for new sets. Resellers who are in it for the long haul will be able to pick up bargains as short-timers dump their inventories, which should help keep secondary market prices from rising significantly for a while. 


  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,348
    PapaBear said:
    I won't buy Ninjago to resell, I haven't bought anything to resell this year and I don't plan on it.  I expect most resellers that are left will do the same.  The drop in price on the Falcon is disheartening and makes me want to get rid of it for virtually zero gain.

    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    #10179 dropped $3,000 so far and will drop more when LEGO finally gets the new Falcon back in stock.  Prices will rise, but not significantly.  There are too many compounding factors such as an increasing reduced amount of new AFOLs and people that come out of their dark ages that want the old sets.

    alaskaguy said:

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.
    I don't follow you.  How will LEGO become more affordable?  Reducing the amount of resellers should cause aftermarket prices to rise.  Although, I really don't think the rise will be significant as I just stated.  The only way it would become cheaper is if LEGO damages their brand so much that they decide to lower prices or start sales on exclusive sets again.
    In 30 years (or more), the last remaining MISB #10179s will be worth crazy money to the few people who want them, just like there are a few people who can and will pay crazy money for an original painting or any other collectible. Others will pay crazy money for broken pieces of pottery, just because they are thousands of years old. As long as there are people who have more money than other people, there will be people willing to spend large amounts of money to own things simply because other people cannot afford to buy them. I expect my heirs will have given away all my LEGO before it becomes worth much more than I paid for it.

    If the bottom falls out of the speculators market, more people will be able to buy sets at MSRP on the primary market. Secondary market prices will rise, but probably at a slower rate than they do currently, as resellers won't have to compete with as many scalpers for new sets. Resellers who are in it for the long haul will be able to pick up bargains as short-timers dump their inventories, which should help keep secondary market prices from rising significantly for a while. 


    In my mind, the pre-71592 price of $6,000+ for a sealed box of plastic was already crazy money.

    Trying to look 30 years down the line and speculating that it will return to that price or beyond is looking at life much too linear in my opinion. 3D printing, new technology, war... a lot can happen in 30 years. Not everything ages like a fine wine.
    PapaBearpharmjodSumoLegoTXLegoguybandit778FollowsCloselyLuLegonicoyagomez
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,186
    samiam391 said:
    PapaBear said:
    I won't buy Ninjago to resell, I haven't bought anything to resell this year and I don't plan on it.  I expect most resellers that are left will do the same.  The drop in price on the Falcon is disheartening and makes me want to get rid of it for virtually zero gain.

    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    #10179 dropped $3,000 so far and will drop more when LEGO finally gets the new Falcon back in stock.  Prices will rise, but not significantly.  There are too many compounding factors such as an increasing reduced amount of new AFOLs and people that come out of their dark ages that want the old sets.

    alaskaguy said:

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.
    I don't follow you.  How will LEGO become more affordable?  Reducing the amount of resellers should cause aftermarket prices to rise.  Although, I really don't think the rise will be significant as I just stated.  The only way it would become cheaper is if LEGO damages their brand so much that they decide to lower prices or start sales on exclusive sets again.
    In 30 years (or more), the last remaining MISB #10179s will be worth crazy money to the few people who want them, just like there are a few people who can and will pay crazy money for an original painting or any other collectible. Others will pay crazy money for broken pieces of pottery, just because they are thousands of years old. As long as there are people who have more money than other people, there will be people willing to spend large amounts of money to own things simply because other people cannot afford to buy them. I expect my heirs will have given away all my LEGO before it becomes worth much more than I paid for it.

    If the bottom falls out of the speculators market, more people will be able to buy sets at MSRP on the primary market. Secondary market prices will rise, but probably at a slower rate than they do currently, as resellers won't have to compete with as many scalpers for new sets. Resellers who are in it for the long haul will be able to pick up bargains as short-timers dump their inventories, which should help keep secondary market prices from rising significantly for a while. 


    In my mind, the pre-71592 price of $6,000+ for a sealed box of plastic was already crazy money.

    Trying to look 30 years down the line and speculating that it will return to that price or beyond is looking at life much too linear in my opinion. 3D printing, new technology, war... a lot can happen in 30 years. Not everything ages like a fine wine.
    How about $2k for a single figure?
    samiam391SumoLego
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,348
    vwong19 said:
    samiam391 said:
    PapaBear said:
    I won't buy Ninjago to resell, I haven't bought anything to resell this year and I don't plan on it.  I expect most resellers that are left will do the same.  The drop in price on the Falcon is disheartening and makes me want to get rid of it for virtually zero gain.

    ^Maybe so, maybe no. For people who want to have a "MISB first edition", the new release won't affect the original, just like paperback copies of "Tom Sawyer" don't affect the prices of first editions of the same book.

    This may actually cause prices to rise on the secondary market as investors bail out, reducing the number of resellers and the number of MISB sets available for purchase. When one bubble bursts, another bubble starts to form. 
    #10179 dropped $3,000 so far and will drop more when LEGO finally gets the new Falcon back in stock.  Prices will rise, but not significantly.  There are too many compounding factors such as an increasing reduced amount of new AFOLs and people that come out of their dark ages that want the old sets.

    alaskaguy said:

    I hope the bottom does fall out of speculating - it will make the product more affordable to the non-speculators who just want good creative/learning toys for their kids to play with.
    I don't follow you.  How will LEGO become more affordable?  Reducing the amount of resellers should cause aftermarket prices to rise.  Although, I really don't think the rise will be significant as I just stated.  The only way it would become cheaper is if LEGO damages their brand so much that they decide to lower prices or start sales on exclusive sets again.
    In 30 years (or more), the last remaining MISB #10179s will be worth crazy money to the few people who want them, just like there are a few people who can and will pay crazy money for an original painting or any other collectible. Others will pay crazy money for broken pieces of pottery, just because they are thousands of years old. As long as there are people who have more money than other people, there will be people willing to spend large amounts of money to own things simply because other people cannot afford to buy them. I expect my heirs will have given away all my LEGO before it becomes worth much more than I paid for it.

    If the bottom falls out of the speculators market, more people will be able to buy sets at MSRP on the primary market. Secondary market prices will rise, but probably at a slower rate than they do currently, as resellers won't have to compete with as many scalpers for new sets. Resellers who are in it for the long haul will be able to pick up bargains as short-timers dump their inventories, which should help keep secondary market prices from rising significantly for a while. 


    In my mind, the pre-71592 price of $6,000+ for a sealed box of plastic was already crazy money.

    Trying to look 30 years down the line and speculating that it will return to that price or beyond is looking at life much too linear in my opinion. 3D printing, new technology, war... a lot can happen in 30 years. Not everything ages like a fine wine.
    How about $2k for a single figure?
    Shhh.

    Hehe, no, also crazy.

    I love my collection, but everything I own has a price that I would sell it at. Many figures I've owned simply reached a price where it didn't make financial (life) sense for to me to keep the tiny piece of plastic anymore. Just like I have a certain sense of frugality that I can only buy LEGO that I think (know) is going to go up in price- sets and figures.

    There are some figures >$2,000 that I strongly believe will continue to go up in price, those are ones I don't mind continuing to hold onto or purchasing. From a re-seller standpoint, figures have always been much more lucrative for me than any sets.


    vwong19SumoLegoTXLegoguy
  • alaskaguyalaskaguy Member Posts: 335
    edited October 2017
    I think there is a big division between people who buy Legos as toys, and people who buy Legos intending to profit from them.

    I'm all for capitalism, and if someone wanted to buy all "my" Legos at something that would give me a healthy profit, I'd gladly sell them. But the reason why I am buying them is to give my kid something to play with.  If I were "investing", I'd definitely put that money into his 529 plan and keep my fingers crossed, before buying Legos with a profit motive.   To that end, I'd like nothing more than for Legos to become as cheap as possible, while preserving their utility as creative play toys. I couldn't care less about the "resale value" of the Legos I've been buying. That said, he might (:

    CaptainPirateMandatsunrobbieMooreFX
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,271
    MrJackson said:
    Argonaut said:
    With Lego struggling financially, at least there's no chance of them re-issuing the Taj Mahal (10189).  No logic in them doing a new version or indeed any demand for new.
    You were saying?
    When was this first posted? 2003?  LEGO hasn't been struggling financially for over a decade.
    sid3windr
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,271
    samiam391 said:
    ...There are some figures >$2,000 that I strongly believe will continue to go up in price, those are ones I don't mind continuing to hold onto or purchasing.
    Well, I still 'value' my collection at the acquisition cost or original relative retail price.  Thus, I don't feel guilt about continuing to possess a particular item - no matter the current market value.

    (Atleast this is what I will tell myself when the limited edition CMF S20 Mr. Gold is released.)
    snowhitie
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    I'm a huge LEGO collector and very much value my collection. It have 2,000+ sets dating back to the 70s, including mostly all the D2C sets (sans most of the Star Wars stuff, I don't collect it, but do have a few), and I'd guess it's worth upwards of $50k+. I honestly am not at all bothered by the re-release. Prices of collectible goods go up and down, it's the nature of the market, and not limited to collecting LEGO.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    The sec.Market looked already pretty bad the last couple months (yrs?),i guess the Taj is the Nail in the Coffin! Looks like @LegoFanTexas went out of this Business at the right time!
    FollowsCloselyPapaBear
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 468
    edited October 2017
    If the bottom falls out of the speculators market, more people will be able to buy sets at MSRP on the primary market.
    I hope you are right, the bottom seems to have already fallen out.  IMO it will take a long time for the Helicarrier and the Palace Cinema to sell out.  I bet sales on big sets start to come back.  I don't have time to search for sales everyday on sets I want, unless it's Black Friday. 

    Secondary market prices will rise, but probably at a slower rate than they do currently, as resellers won't have to compete with as many scalpers for new sets. Resellers who are in it for the long haul will be able to pick up bargains as short-timers dump their inventories, which should help keep secondary market prices from rising significantly for a while.
    Secondary market prices will rise because of less resellers, scalpers only temporarily affect the aftermarket.  I've never bought a set from a short-timer and the only bargain I've gotten in the past 4 years are double VIP and promos from [email protected]
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,135
    Re-release of Taj Mahal pretty much kills Lego as any kind of long term investment, right? 
    Long term, maybe. It doesn't kill of short term investing though. So resellers are going to load up on quick flip sets like Women of NASA. If people can get their hands on as many as they can, using multiple online accounts, multiple people buying in store, etc. and short stock LEGO at Christmas on the sought after sets, then there will be money to made. Just the sort of LEGO investing that LEGO tried to put a stop to after the original Minecraft, but now they will be encouraging it by killing off long term.

    Also long term, it will mean looking for licenses that are popular btu LEGO are unlikely to do again. So LOTR and Hobbit would be good examples, maybe some of the sets from Lone Ranger (but not theme theme as a whole). They are unlikely to want to get the license again just to re-release old sets. So it will be looking for sets that are unlikely to happen again due to licenses expiring, but popular enough to appeal to future buyers.

    SumoLegoPapaBearOnebricktoomany
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,271
    ^ I would be more concerned if another manufacturer snapped up the rights - but other than Nickelodeon-related Ninja Turtles and Spongebob, I haven't seen any former LEGO IP end up elsewhere.

    (LotR, Scooby-Doo, Harry Potter, Angry Birds, etc.)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,135
    SumoLego said:

    (LotR, Scooby-Doo, Harry Potter, Angry Birds, etc.)
    I guess these are not that long gone, especially considering Dimensions. Of course, the same is not true the other way around - Scooby Doo and Doctor Who both were done by Character Building before. I hope someone else does pick up LOTR, only for making a Sauron and Witch King head / helmet.

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I think this will certainly be a death knell for your casual collector. Those of us that might have "bought one for the kids and one for the shelf," will probably scale back.  One once knew that in a year or two you could pay for the one you opened with the one you kept.    

    I think the easy money in this hobby disappeared in 2012-2013.  Since then, you really needed to nail your picks, or get them at a deep discount to make easy money.  It was fun while it lasted.

    Be curious how much business Lego gains from the re-releases, versus what they lose from the "casual investor." I know I won't be picking up multiples of any sets for awhile.

    (Hint Hint: if a lot of people agree with me, then some of you might do well 10yrs from now by scooping up excess inventory during the next Lego lull) :)

    Good luck!!!
    dougtsPate5346
  • HanzoHanzo VAMember Posts: 607
    jcb193 said:
    I think this will certainly be a death knell for your casual collector. Those of us that might have "bought one for the kids and one for the shelf," will probably scale back.  One once knew that in a year or two you could pay for the one you opened with the one you kept.    

    Since this method doesn't really work in any other hobby, it couldn't have been expected to last in this one no?
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 468
    ^No, it couldn't, but rereleasing exact sets may speed up this trend.  They did a good job with rereleasing the Falcon, but this seems like a bad trend to me.  LEGO was struggling financially the last time they tried rereleasing sets.  Now we've heard LEGO has started to struggle keeping up its growth and they've decided to rerelease sets.  I know their sales are not down significantly, but the similarities seem ominous.  I don't think it is a smart move, and think going after markets like Australia, Japan, and elsewhere would be much more profitable.
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