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I'm not going to recap 640 pages of notes here, most of which raised the red flags on this scenario years ago. But my general guide on LEGO investing right now is:
A) Don't buy it if you're not willing to open it for personal enjoyment.
B) If you're not buying in for 30% discount or better, don't bother.
never underestimate the stupidity of people thinking they are making easy money, put no value on their time, and don't track all their ancillary expenses. They think that 10% is "easy money" and can't wait to turn more
On army builders or niche ones Im guessing they will do well.. eventually. But the 'Standard' ones'? Wasting your time and money.
Now the last wave, might be a little different, but only if their production is 10% or less of the prior waves. I'm not sure I've seen something so overproduced in my life. Well maybe except for the Atari ET game.
If anything, TLG cares even less about aftermarket EOL sets. It is betting consumers are so swamped with current offerings that they will not go back to buy EOL sets.
While the new sets aren't exact copies of old ones, they are close enough to "scratch the itch". And the "reissue" cycle is getting shorter.
Agree or not?
The UCS MF and Taj Mahal are expensive because there were not as many made, and they were made at a time Lego was nowhere near as popular.
Plus, there is the set reissue... issue.
Couldn't agree more with 'A)'. The extent of my Lego "investing" is, "Maybe I'll sell this someday, but if not, it will make a good gift for the kids (or me)."
The only time I buy multiple of a set is if it's a very good price and I can get what comes out to be about 2 for 1. Then I can build one and stash one with very little risk.
;)
My local Lego Retail Store had a bonanza of Simpsons Houses and Kwik-E Marts. I was confused.
This. It's not just the typical re-releases. Since the resurrection of the Death Star, there are more high end sets getting new versions. I think that has potential investors spooked.
Coupled with collectors/sellers sitting on stuff that hasn't appreciated from 2012 and on. That seems to be when it became an alternate investing phenomenon.
However, some of us also don't have the space to open and build most of our sets, so they stay in boxes...and my way of thinking is, if one day I need money and I can get a good price for my unopened sets (which I have gotten between 20-50% off or more), then awesome, otherwise they'll stay there until I get the chance or space.
EDIT: Going back to my unanswered question, any predictions on soon to be retired sets? Parisian Restaurant? Simpsons House?
So to save myself the effort searching through other threads, are there now plans for TLG to release another UCS Millennium Falcon? There's been so much speculation about this over the years that I wouldn't even know which thread(s) to look at anyway. Figure I will just cut to the chase and come to this thread...
I don't have enough insight into the aftermarket to make specific predictions, but I'll be interested to see how Temple of Airjitzu does. It's already showing as "Sold Out" in the US, and with a LEGO Ninjago Movie D2C on the way it's probably not long for the primary market. It has been available at reduced prices which I'm sure will keep its aftermarket price somewhat contained. But like Parisian Restaurant the average price for new copies sold on BrickLink within the past 6 months is tracking at around 90% RRP, and the LEGO Ninjago Movie might generate renewed interest in it from new buyers taking the plunge on Ninjago.
I'll recap for you -
It's been heavily rumored for the past 2 years. There is a whole thread devoted to rumors about it. It seems like there was some kind of major news about it or even bigger more secretive rumor discussed somewhere here, but everyone was being super vague about it and now there's been nothing.
So I have no idea what to think. Those who claim to be in the know aren't sharing much, at least not that I can see.
Or to answer your question another way,
No
Not yet
"LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series TIE Fighter for $190.12. Once discontinued, price goes up ALOT (over $1K)"
The price goes up, Alot.
Yeah, a twitter feed with how many following? Yeah, worth a ton when everyone and their sister buys them.. Also, only 190 USD? We have seen them constantly on sale for 160 USD
thank u 4 that lnk. i liked it alot mor then i xpected i wud
I also think this set will go out of stock very fast though I guess overall it will be available for at least one year only with big intervals of non availability. The sets will be higher then on ebay because there will be people who don't want to wait and who don't have confidence in lego restocking. I can see this go for 200 on ebay even during the time that you can potentially buy it,just based on "intrinsic" value of its seize and piece count. Lets just hope lego makes enough of them to fulfill demand (If you are a fan like me) or hope for the opposite for those who want to make some money.
The Exo-Suit was a bit of a different situation—as a non-licensed set based on a classic Lego theme, it didn't have the sort of appeal to non-FOLs or casual Lego fans that something as iconic and historically significant as the Saturn V might. This is the kind of set that is likely to draw in new or lapsed Lego fans who are passionate about science or history, and because of that historical significance demand is likely to remain high (particularly since chances are that another model of this subject, at this scale, is unlikely to be released again any time soon).
That said, I like to hope that Lego has considered the high demand this set will surely have and has planned its lifespan accordingly. It may go out of stock at points but given its size and price I would expect it to go several years before retirement.
i want to buy them but I don't want to wait to long.
@MattPetersen if you can afford them without any issues, purchase them...worse case scenario, they go on sale, and you purchase them again, which is never a bad thing.
(Assuming one is released! I am suspicious given the size and fanfare around Assembly Square, that the line may skip a year... or worse.)
I doubt it'd skip a whole year. If anything, the next one might come out a few months later than usual, but still in 2018.
Fairground Mixer...
Sandcrawler...
That's the first post in over a month. That's got to be a record for this thread hasn't it? Is the lack of updates to this thread a sign that the bottom has truly dropped out of the reseller market?
The small part of my reselling that I did do with that I've since closed down.
Too many hands in the cookie jar these days.