Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

CoraHarrison

We made a video a while back with all our investment Lego sets... Since then I've been having a long think about all this and I really dont feel that the investment perspectives on Lego as good as they were even just 18 months ago. Is there anyone else brave enough to show their investment hauls? ;-)

prevere

^Thank you for posting. I can sense some of your frustration through your post on the forum. Anyone who bought DS or VW Campers has to be concerned.

I'm not going to recap 640 pages of notes here, most of which raised the red flags on this scenario years ago. But my general guide on LEGO investing right now is:
A) Don't buy it if you're not willing to open it for personal enjoyment.
B) If you're not buying in for 30% discount or better, don't bother.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

Short of a few of the more collectible exceptions, The only sets I've bought for 'investment' so far this decade have been retired sets from last decade or earlier.  I use the term investment in inverted commas as it could easily be interchanged with 'collecting'. As I realise I'm more of a collector than aflipper, I'm confident that the choices I've made will, in the long run, be considerably more profitable than those that have loaded up on multiples in recent times.  I know too many people with wardrobes full of recent stuff. I personally believe the bubble burst a long time ago...

dougts

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

^ #3 - I HAVE to assume those sellers are either flipping stolen (or some sort of 'inside job' barcode scam) goods or have access to some ridiculous pricing structures I'm too dumb to work out.  I can't honestly believe people are willing to resell at 5-10% profit margins with the amount of time required to actively operate (even in a hobby/second job type situation).

never underestimate the stupidity of people thinking they are making easy money, put no value on their time, and don't track all their ancillary expenses. They think that 10% is "easy money" and can't wait to turn more

mh3490

Really wondering what the potential is on the dimensions fun packs 

flord

They sell for $3-5 on Ebay.

madforLEGO

mh3490 said:

Really wondering what the potential is on the dimensions fun packs 

On army builders or niche ones Im guessing they will do well.. eventually. But the 'Standard' ones'? Wasting your time and money.

prevere

^With the insane release of SO MANY Dimensions sets for $1 in the west and south, investment for this theme is pretty much dead. If your buy in is $3 or less, then maybe you'll make a little bit. Otherwise forget it.

Now the last wave, might be a little different, but only if their production is 10% or less of the prior waves. I'm not sure I've seen something so overproduced in my life. Well maybe except for the Atari ET game.

VorpalRyu

prevere said:

^With the insane release of SO MANY Dimensions sets for $1 in the west and south, investment for this theme is pretty much dead. If your buy in is $3 or less, then maybe you'll make a little bit. Otherwise forget it.

Now the last wave, might be a little different, but only if their production is 10% or less of the prior waves. I'm not sure I've seen something so overproduced in my life. Well maybe except for the Atari ET game. 

I won't be so sure on the last waves, the last few to hit [email protected] have been heavily discounted (Fun packs RRP here is AU$24.99, but Knight Rider is still showing as AU$6.99). I suspect most of the special parts were made ahead of time so TLG wouldn't have issues keeping up with the expected demand.

nhyone

I get the impression that TLG is releasing a ton of sets at a time and extending their life in 6-month cycles based on their sales. Perhaps this was also true in the past, but it seems more obvious now.

If anything, TLG cares even less about aftermarket EOL sets. It is betting consumers are so swamped with current offerings that they will not go back to buy EOL sets.

While the new sets aren't exact copies of old ones, they are close enough to "scratch the itch". And the "reissue" cycle is getting shorter.

Agree or not?

josekalel

Any predictions on soon to be discontinued sets? So that I can get my wallet ready to buy...

SumoLego

prevere said:

But my general guide on LEGO investing right now is:
A) Don't buy it if you're not willing to open it for personal enjoyment.
B) If you're not buying in for 30% discount or better, don't bother. 

The current state of Lego investment reminds me far too much of the baseball card industry circa 1997.  There is just so much product available across so many themes that I don't see the the hallmarks of scarcity and limited popularity.  (And the inherent scarcity in that a particular player only has a rookie year once.)

The UCS MF and Taj Mahal are expensive because there were not as many made, and they were made at a time Lego was nowhere near as popular.  

Plus, there is the set reissue... issue.

monstblitz

prevere said:

^Thank you for posting. I can sense some of your frustration through your post on the forum. Anyone who bought DS or VW Campers has to be concerned.

I'm not going to recap 640 pages of notes here, most of which raised the red flags on this scenario years ago. But my general guide on LEGO investing right now is:
A) Don't buy it if you're not willing to open it for personal enjoyment.
B) If you're not buying in for 30% discount or better, don't bother.

Couldn't agree more with 'A)'.  The extent of my Lego "investing" is, "Maybe I'll sell this someday, but if not, it will make a good gift for the kids (or me)." 

The only time I buy multiple of a set is if it's a very good price and I can get what comes out to be about 2 for 1.  Then I can build one and stash one with very little risk. 

wagnerml2

*crickets*

Rainstorm26

Never thought this would become a zombie thread....investing market must have peaked in April as no one seems to care about secondary market value of sets anymore.
;)

SumoLego

Until there is widespread panic for those sitting on Carousels and Millenium Falcons...

SumoLego

I'd like to think that aside from the anomaly set that gets retired early or with no notice, sets tend to be available for longer periods of time.

My local Lego Retail Store had a bonanza of Simpsons Houses and Kwik-E Marts.  I was confused.

wrangler6915

In investments parlance, there has been a cyclical roatation from growth to value investing in Lego.   Used to be you could buy a set and assume nice growth in value a year or so post retirement.  Now, you better be able to purchase at 50% off (or more) MSRP if you hope to make any money.  And that still requires selectivity. 

Bumblepants

There aren't really any interesting sets to wonder about retirement for either. About the only real successes to be had anymore are to guess what set will be the next MF Zombies or the Elves Dragon Sanctuary which lasts only 6 months unexpectedly. And that still won't work if enough other people guess the same as you.

prevere

SumoLego said:

Until there is widespread panic for those sitting on Carousels and Millenium Falcons...

This. It's not just the typical re-releases. Since the resurrection of the Death Star, there are more high end sets getting new versions. I think that has potential investors spooked.

Coupled with collectors/sellers sitting on stuff that hasn't appreciated from 2012 and on. That seems to be when it became an alternate investing phenomenon.

pharmjod

Bring it on. I miss the days of not competing with people for deals.

josekalel

Like @prevere mentioned, if you aren't willing to open a set for personal enjoyment then don't buy as an investment. People getting into LEGO to earn a profit in five years are doing it for the wrong reasons and the wrong way, and it ends up detracting a bit from the rest of us who might wanna buy something on sale or at a discount. I also think most of us buy sets when they're usually 20-30% off or more because we wanna build them and play with them and don't truly expect to sell them in the future.

However, some of us also don't have the space to open and build most of our sets, so they stay in boxes...and my way of thinking is, if one day I need money and I can get a good price for my unopened sets (which I have gotten between 20-50% off or more), then awesome, otherwise they'll stay there until I get the chance or space. 

EDIT: Going back to my unanswered question, any predictions on soon to be retired sets? Parisian Restaurant? Simpsons House?

Farmer_John

SumoLego said:

Until there is widespread panic for those sitting on Carousels and Millenium Falcons...

So to save myself the effort searching through other threads, are there now plans for TLG to release another UCS Millennium Falcon? There's been so much speculation about this over the years that I wouldn't even know which thread(s) to look at anyway. Figure I will just cut to the chase and come to this thread...

Aanchir

josekalel said:

Going back to my unanswered question, any predictions on soon to be retired sets? Parisian Restaurant? Simpsons House?

I don't have enough insight into the aftermarket to make specific predictions, but I'll be interested to see how Temple of Airjitzu does. It's already showing as "Sold Out" in the US, and with a LEGO Ninjago Movie D2C on the way it's probably not long for the primary market. It has been available at reduced prices which I'm sure will keep its aftermarket price somewhat contained. But like Parisian Restaurant the average price for new copies sold on BrickLink within the past 6 months is tracking at around 90% RRP, and the LEGO Ninjago Movie might generate renewed interest in it from new buyers taking the plunge on Ninjago.

CurvedRoadPlate

I wonder if we will see another discount on the Temple. My store has copies on the shelf full price currently. It had been marked down for Brick Friday and after Christmas at one point. 

VorpalRyu

Temple of Airjitsu still showing as stock available for Australia & retailers here are just starting to get stock, so it could just be a temporary sold out for the US. If not & ToA is destined for retirement soon, I'm just glad I decided to grab one recently, I want to add a Chinatown section to our modulars layout & ToA is good start for that sort of idea.

monstblitz

Farmer_John said:

SumoLego said:

Until there is widespread panic for those sitting on Carousels and Millenium Falcons...

So to save myself the effort searching through other threads, are there now plans for TLG to release another UCS Millennium Falcon? There's been so much speculation about this over the years that I wouldn't even know which thread(s) to look at anyway. Figure I will just cut to the chase and come to this thread...

I'll recap for you -

It's been heavily rumored for the past 2 years.  There is a whole thread devoted to rumors about it.  It seems like there was some kind of major news about it or even bigger more secretive rumor discussed somewhere here, but everyone was being super vague about it and now there's been nothing. 

So I have no idea what to think.  Those who claim to be in the know aren't sharing much, at least not that I can see. 

josekalel

I would love to get the Temple of Airjitsu, but I can't afford it unless it's at least 30% off. Would be a great "China Town" addition to any town. 

piratemania7

I hear a lot of people talking about the discounts they can get now and how they can make their purchase today more palatable. Hell I am one of them! What I am saying though is it is just the flip side of all the work that went into buying stuff for the after marketing and investing. Making all these moves with coupons and sales and VIP points...it's all a mess and all a cluster...

Rainstorm26

Here's a prediction.  Buy a Saturn V as soon as you can.  They'll be out of stock within the first week.

SumoLego

(Maybe they'll throw in a free Exo-Suit?)

roxio

monstblitz said:

Farmer_John said:

SumoLego said:

Until there is widespread panic for those sitting on Carousels and Millenium Falcons...

So to save myself the effort searching through other threads, are there now plans for TLG to release another UCS Millennium Falcon? There's been so much speculation about this over the years that I wouldn't even know which thread(s) to look at anyway. Figure I will just cut to the chase and come to this thread...

I'll recap for you -

It's been heavily rumored for the past 2 years.  There is a whole thread devoted to rumors about it.  It seems like there was some kind of major news about it or even bigger more secretive rumor discussed somewhere here, but everyone was being super vague about it and now there's been nothing. 

So I have no idea what to think.  Those who claim to be in the know aren't sharing much, at least not that I can see. 

Or to answer your question another way,
No
Not yet

Bumblepants

IGN deals Twitter has started suggesting some Lego sales and just posted this gem:

"LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series TIE Fighter for $190.12. Once discontinued, price goes up ALOT (over $1K)"

sid3windr

The price goes up, Alot.

madforLEGO

Bumblepants said:

IGN deals Twitter has started suggesting some Lego sales and just posted this gem:

"LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series TIE Fighter for $190.12. Once discontinued, price goes up ALOT (over $1K)"

Yeah, a twitter feed with how many following? Yeah, worth a ton when everyone and their sister buys them.. Also, only 190 USD? We have seen them constantly on sale for 160 USD

pharmjod

sid3windr said:

The price goes up, Alot.

thank u 4 that lnk. i liked it alot mor then i xpected i wud

Pmh

Rainstorm26 said:

Here's a prediction.  Buy a Saturn V as soon as you can.  They'll be out of stock within the first week.

I also think this set will go out of stock very fast though I guess overall it will be available for at least one year only with big intervals of non availability. The sets will be higher then on ebay because there will be people who don't want to wait and who don't have confidence in lego restocking. I can see this go for 200 on ebay even during the time that you can potentially buy it,just based on "intrinsic" value of its seize and piece count. Lets just hope lego makes enough of them to fulfill demand (If you are a fan like me) or hope for the opposite for those who want to make some money.

prevere

^(Cough) Exo-suit.

Lyichir

prevere said:

^(Cough) Exo-suit.

The Exo-Suit was a bit of a different situation—as a non-licensed set based on a classic Lego theme, it didn't have the sort of appeal to non-FOLs or casual Lego fans that something as iconic and historically significant as the Saturn V might. This is the kind of set that is likely to draw in new or lapsed Lego fans who are passionate about science or history, and because of that historical significance demand is likely to remain high (particularly since chances are that another model of this subject, at this scale, is unlikely to be released again any time soon).

That said, I like to hope that Lego has considered the high demand this set will surely have and has planned its lifespan accordingly. It may go out of stock at points but given its size and price I would expect it to go several years before retirement.

sklamb

  I would also hope that the Saturn V set has a long lifespan, but I'm not going to rely on that. I want one to give to my father for Father's Day (he worked on designing those Rocketdyne engines!) and that's going to be a day 1 buy (hour 1 if I can manage it)! I'd also like a second set to keep unopened, but I'll probably buy that after the first rush dies down, assuming it's still available then.

MattPetersen

So what's the life span on the palace cinema or the Detective's Office?
i want to buy them but I don't want to wait to long. 

josekalel

@Bumblepants It's just a good marketing strategy for them to get clicks/ad revenue...I'm sure it'll work. 

@MattPetersen if you can afford them without any issues, purchase them...worse case scenario, they go on sale, and you purchase them again, which is never a bad thing. 

SumoLego

Considering the 'retired' Pet Shop was still available my local Lego Retail Store, I would guess they'll be available until next year, when the next modular is released.

(Assuming one is released!  I am suspicious given the size and fanfare around Assembly Square, that the line may skip a year... or worse.)

Aanchir

SumoLego said:

Considering the 'retired' Pet Shop was still available my local Lego Retail Store, I would guess they'll be available until next year, when the next modular is released.

(Assuming one is released!  I am suspicious given the size and fanfare around Assembly Square, that the line may skip a year... or worse.)

I doubt it'd skip a whole year. If anything, the next one might come out a few months later than usual, but still in 2018.

Legoboy

^ I did consider this line of thought also and would be massively disappointed if found to be the case.  The Modulars and large scale Creator sets are possibly the last thing I'm hanging onto with LEGO.  Well, those and the possibility of releasing a White Rangefinder.

SumoLego

Did anyone notice that the UCS Sandcrawler and the Fairground Mixer disappeared from the [email protected] website?

Fairground Mixer...


Sandcrawler...

1x1

That's the first post in over a month.  That's got to be a record for this thread hasn't it?  Is the lack of updates to this thread a sign that the bottom has truly dropped out of the reseller market?

SumoLego

Perhaps.  Or we're wasting our energy in the UCS MF rumor thread.

SumoLego

(I suspect there is only a finite about of unsubstantiated speculation in the Forum.)

samiam391

I'm still "reselling" but mots of my business was always outside of the realm of recently discontinued sets. 

The small part of my reselling that I did do with that I've since closed down.

Too many hands in the cookie jar these days.