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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,363
    This just in from The Brick Fan. Apparently LEGO stores are going to start selling the retailer 'exclusives' in their brick and mortars now. So they will start to sell sets like Arkham Asylum, the Penguin set, and others.



    Good! So frustrating that they ever stopped.
    madforLEGOprevereSumoLego
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    @mh3490 - There's an old adage I heard a long time ago that seems to be especially applicable for investing in collectibles. It goes something like this: "The first dollar is the best dollar." The point here is the person who originally purchases an item has the best chance at making the most money off that item. For example, whoever originally purchased a particular SDCC Lego set at Comic-Con has the best potential to make money on that set. It's not that you can't make money...just not as much money. You may also have to wait longer to make that money meaning more risk.

    Generally speaking - As has been said many times throughout this thread, the return on reselling Lego is not what it used to be. In fact, it's almost a requirement to purchase your sets on sale (below RRP); not purchase them after they've been marked up like most SDCC sets are.

    More specifically - SDCC Lego sets are a niche market with buyers that have deep pockets. I have a lot of Lego sets, but have only purchased one authentic SDCC set. The reason I don't purchase SDCC sets is cost. My approach is usually to purchase custom SDCC minifigure replicas reproduced using real Lego parts (I only want SDCC minifigures) for 10% of the SDCC after-market price. I can then use the remaining 90% to purchase other Lego sets or minifigures. I did the same thing with Mr. Gold, and am very happy with the quality of all my custom purchases.

    VorpalRyu said:
    That is why I buy the SDCC merch for myself, not for investing, I don't see the point in that, I liberate all them from their prisons, which kills their resale value. I just I wish had picked up Spider-Woman & the two Spidey SDCC figs when I had the chance, I argued with myself on the price & now she's impossible to find (they're the only Lego Marvel SDCC things I'm missing now, hopefully one day it will happen).
    I've actually been very successful at flipping SDCC merchandise- figures and sets for the past five years. 

    BUT... I've since stopped. There are now too many people, such as yourself mh3490, trying to get into the game which has ruined the large gains needed to substantiate such an enterprise. It was a fun game, but now I'm just selling off my remaining stock. I didn't buy anything from SDCC this past year. There are now, simply, too many competing sellers. In the past, the market was low supply, medium demand. Now it's high supply, medium demand. Those metrics aren't favorable for this business. 
    Pitfall69MAGNINOMINISUMBRAYodaliciouspharmjodVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,708
    ^ the same could be said of more general Lego sets, and for part outs too. 
    legomental
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Yes - the same can be said for sets and part-outs if you're looking for fast flipping. For those who play the long game and have the means to keep cashflow going, it still works out ok. But it truly has to be a labor of love.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I have no faith in the long game. We haven't fully seen the long term effect of the investor saturation game as related to prices years down the road.
    BumblepantsMAGNINOMINISUMBRAVorpalRyubandit778Jackad7catwranglerlegomentaljuggles7
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    I'm with pharmjod.  For every Public Transport there's a dozen Construct a Zergs - I don't think THAT factor has changed. What has changed there is now 10 fold, 20 fold? (probably heaps more) people squirrelling EVERYTHING away.  I can't help feel that it's a similar situation to what happened with Star Wars collecting 20 years ago and probably amplified by the Internet age and multiple media reports espousing the huge returns of LEGO investing.
    VorpalRyupharmjodlegomental
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    Generally speaking - As has been said many times throughout this thread, the return on reselling Lego is not what it used to be. In fact, it's almost a requirement to purchase your sets on sale (below RRP); not purchase them after they've been marked up like most SDCC sets are.

    I second that.  Reselling is nothing like it used to be.  The profit margins are definitely smaller.  
    1 - Gone are the BOGO's from TRU and other places.
    2 - Gone are other huge discounts on nice sets.
    3 - There is a lot more competition.  Some resellers seem to be happy with making pennies on the dollar.  For me, unless I double my money I don't see it worth it, given the value of my time, etc.
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAsonsofsceva
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^ #3 - I HAVE to assume those sellers are either flipping stolen (or some sort of 'inside job' barcode scam) goods or have access to some ridiculous pricing structures I'm too dumb to work out.  I can't honestly believe people are willing to resell at 5-10% profit margins with the amount of time required to actively operate (even in a hobby/second job type situation).
    Jackad7stluxDeeC2_Josh
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    CCC said:
    ^ the same could be said of more general Lego sets, and for part outs too. 
    Certainly. Which is why I'm no longer doing that either :)
    pharmjodPitfall69CCCSumoLego
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 593
    Re SDCC sets.
    From the UK, you either have to pay travel costs (flight, accommodation etc.) And get the SDCC first hand.
    Or you pay a mark up and get them from the reseller / eBay.
    If I want a SDCC set I normally go the eBay route (via the same seller) as its cheaper than actually paying the travel costs (even with import duty)...

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    The gains are definitely not as good as they used to be on SDCC Exclusives, but there is still money to be made; it all depends on how much profit is worth it. 

    I bought an SDCC Sam Wilson for $151 + Free Shipping. It is selling over $200+ currently. Only a $20-25 profit after fees. Steve Rogers was selling around $175 when he first came out and he's currently selling in the $210-225 range. Not a big profit, but people would be willing to make $20-25 a minifigure. They don't take up much space and are easier to ship than your standard $150-175 RRP set.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    I am legitimately just curious on this, but what are your opinions on shelf clearing?

    While I can't verify this is the case, I was monitoring a clearance set, the Lego First Order Transporter, #75103 on Brickseek. Today it's price finally dropped from $44.98 to $26.98. Within a 2-3 hour span, Brickseek reported that the saleable quantity at one of the Targets by me went from approximately 50-52 down to 2. The other Target that had that price listed dropped from 30 to 7. I can't help but think that either that Target shipped them somewhere else or that someone came in and cleared the shelf, so I was wondering what the opinions on it were.

    I did buy one at $44.98, so I may be able to do a possible return/rebuy at the cheaper price. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,708
    If it goes on discount sale, then it's fair game. Everyone had a chance to get one​ before then.
    Switchfoot55pharmjodFollowsCloselydatsunrobbiedougts
  • mh3490mh3490 NW Indiana Member Posts: 325
    I just bought a sdcc action comics no. 1 set but it was labeled a sample and was wondering if that would be more desirable than one that was numbered or not 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    A few Brickpicker's have been posting photos of cartfulls at the $27 price. I would have cleared the shelf too at that price. 
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    Only if little Timmy was able to buy one first. 
    SprinkleOtterMAGNINOMINISUMBRAJackad7prevereexciter1
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,710
    Only if little Timmy was able to buy one first. 
    Lets not go 'there' in this thread please.
    pharmjodFollowsCloselySumoLegoVorpalRyugmonkey76
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,308
    edited March 2017
    Only if little Timmy was able to buy one first. 
    Lets not go 'there' in this thread please.
    You're like a dozen or more pages too late for that call...
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRABumblepants
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,908
    (I'm thinking about 639 pages too late!)
    VorpalRyu
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    Only if little Timmy was able to buy one first. 
    Lets not go 'there' in this thread please.
    Timmy tried to go there, but the big, bad reseller was already taking up all the room in the toy aisle with his full shopping carts.
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtterpharmjodVorpalRyuexciter1dougts
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    SNIP
     or that someone came in and cleared the shelf, so I was wondering what the opinions on it were.
    SNIP 
    Fifteen years ago I was that guy.  If it was within a 100K radius - YOU. DID. NOT. STAND. A. CHANCE!
     These days (on the EXTREMELY rare occasions that I get to a shelf before its picked clean) I'll try to leave 10% on the shelf, hide another 10-20% in the vacuum cleaner aisle (and let fellow LUG members (generally those whom I'm in the process of organising a trade with) know about them) and take the rest for myself.  It's also EXTREMELY rare for LEGO in Australia to be had for more than 25% off these days.

    Your Dharma ALWAYS dictates your Karma.
    VorpalRyudatsunrobbie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,908
    ^ Shwarma?
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRASprinkleOtterPitfall69VorpalRyugmonkey76
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^ LOL I see what you did there! Coincidentally - Shawarma IS part of my Dharma (by VERY broad definition) ;-)

     On a related note - it's almost lunch time here - guess what I NOW feel like having!
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,908
    ^ A baloney sandwich?
    VorpalRyusid3windrFollowsCloselySprinkleOttergmonkey76
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,853
    ^ I wonder what the secondary market value of a bologna sandwich are these days? 
  • MrJacksonMrJackson Member Posts: 379
    ^ I actually have a bologna sandwich for lunch and am just not feeling it. I'd be willing to trade it for a cup of coffee. While I would prefer a good cheesesteak, I don't think it'll command that kind of value. 
    Bumblepantsgmonkey76Jackad7
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    Anyone believe the Temple Of Airjitzu is done?  It is showing as out of stock on [email protected] U.S.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    Anyone believe the Temple Of Airjitzu is done?  It is showing as out of stock on [email protected] U.S.
    I sure hope so
    Switchfoot55SumoLego
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,561
    Anyone believe the Temple Of Airjitzu is done?  It is showing as out of stock on [email protected] U.S.
    It shows as available at Barnes and Noble in Milford, CT
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    Do you think the Temple of Airjitzu will have life in the secondary market? Ninjago is now an evergreen theme, I doubt we'll see another version of it. 
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,561
    samiam391 said:
    Only if little Timmy was able to buy one first. 
    Lets not go 'there' in this thread please.
    Timmy tried to go there, but the big, bad reseller was already taking up all the room in the toy aisle with his full shopping carts.

    I do sympathize with Timmy when I see #10697 being scalped at Christmas time, but that's resellers abusing a one-day deal. If the set was on the same shelf yesterday, Timmy could have purchased it then. 

    And I'm sorry if Timmy missed out on the #30474 polybag because I got the last 9 on the shelf, but they were full MSRP and I kept them all for my own Christmas display.
    VorpalRyu
  • gmonkey76gmonkey76 ChicagoMember Posts: 1,569
    But little Timmy needs his participation LEGO trophy. 


    Penkid11VorpalRyuJackad7dougts
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    I wasn't really trying to start an argument, I was just wondering the opinions on it.

    For my part, people are well within their rights to clear a shelf, even if it can be frustrating sometimes because I'm at work and can't run out to get the deal.

    I had bought one at the $44.98 price point last weekend. The Target I bought it from was gracious enough to let me do a return/repurchase at the lower price, so I didn't really miss out at all.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,908
    gmonkey76 said:
    But little Timmy needs his participation LEGO trophy. 
    Bah, that's what Chima was for.
    Penkid11Switchfoot55gmonkey76VorpalRyuwagnerml2
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited March 2017
    I wasn't really trying to start an argument, I was just wondering the opinions on it.


    An argument is pretty much par for the course on most internet discussion forums. This is a discussion forum, after all. Some people call is arguing, some call it discussion!

    Regarding opinions on shelf-clearing, I think it's a rather selfish and gluttonous thing to do. My opinion doesn't really mean much, of course, but it does remind me of this uncivilized behavior:


  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,908
    The sooner Timmy learns that the early bird gets the worm, the better off he'll be.
    And that the early puma crushes the bird and comsumes them both!
    VorpalRyu
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    nkx1 said:
    I wasn't really trying to start an argument, I was just wondering the opinions on it.


    An argument is pretty much par for the course on most internet discussion forums. This is a discussion forum, after all. Some people call is arguing, some call it discussion!

    Regarding opinions on shelf-clearing, I think it's a rather selfish and gluttonous thing to do. My opinion doesn't really mean much, of course, but it does remind me of this uncivilized behavior:

    Avoid the Bricks on the Dollar Youtube channel.
    SprinkleOtterbgl_84
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 952
    edited March 2017
    Timmy is now Tammy.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I'm surprised you showed that many in stock in your area!  In St. Louis, those would have all been gone at the 30% level.

  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    wagnerml2 said:
    I'm surprised you showed that many in stock in your area!  In St. Louis, those would have all been gone at the 30% level.

    Most of the time, discount Lego is cleared almost instantly around here, so this was fairly surprising.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I'm having a difficult time remembering who was wanting the Mega Bloks Star Trek Enterprise but it is currently on sale for $79.99 on Amazon after applying the $20 coupon. 
    https://www.amazon.com/Mega-Bloks-Enterprise-Collector-Construction/dp/B01ARGB91K
    exciter1
  • BillyBricks84BillyBricks84 United StatesMember Posts: 354
    ^I think it was @blogzilly, but I could be incorrect. 
    pharmjod
  • blogzillyblogzilly Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 598
    HOLY CRAP I DONT HAVE THE CASH!!!
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742

    blogzilly said:
    HOLY CRAP I DONT HAVE THE CASH!!!
    Holy crapslock, Batman!
    Jackad7
  • blogzillyblogzilly Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 598
    I was yelling at myself for having an opportunity and not planning ahead for it.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    edited March 2017
    @blogzilly bummer. trying to look out for ya.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 617
    blogzilly said:
    I was yelling at myself for having an opportunity and not planning ahead for it.
    Your wallet is trying to tell you something.  "Don't buy crappy Mega Blocks!" Just kidding.  To each their own.  But egad, those mini figures are terrible.
    SprinkleOtterelspankdogBuriedinBricks
  • blogzillyblogzilly Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 598
    @pharmjod I hear ya and I appreciate it man I really do. I'm trying to figure something out. I want that ship...not excuses... :P
    pharmjodJackad7
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    edited March 2017
    I really don't like Mega Bloks, but that set at that price is tempting (although I'm more of a TNG/DS9 person myself). 

    I will agree that the figures do look kind of awful though.
    Legogram
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