Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SeanTheCollector

Switchfoot55 said:

I know this isn't so much a price check thread, but curious what the thoughts would be on the value of a sealed #6073 set? Let's say I could buy it for $70, is that a reasonable investment? Not much history on sealed versions of this on BL.

I would snap it up for that! It's a no-brainer :)

Switchfoot55

Anything in particular I should look for to authenticate that is genuine and sealed?

Anything look suspicious? 



I'll cross my fingers that I can still get it.  

ryjay

Well, it doesn't look completely sealed.

BuriedinBricks

That's a used set. The parts would not be in bags like those, nor would the horses be loose in the box like that.

ryjay

ya, but is that the picture of the "sealed" set that Switchfoot55 wants to buy?  Cuz is looks very suspicious as a sealed set, lol.  I wonder if they mean complete, not sealed

Switchfoot55

^thanks!

^^ thanks!

I haven't ever seen old sets, so I have no idea what they were packaged like or what to look for. 

Switchfoot55

ryjay said:

ya, but is that the picture of the "sealed" set that Switchfoot55 wants to buy?  Cuz is looks very suspicious as a sealed set, lol.  I wonder if they mean complete, not sealed

That's the set I'm looking at. I'll clarify as much as possible. Considering its not factory sealed, but hopefully complete and with the original box in decent shape, what are thoughts on value? 

flord

Search up used copies on Bricklink that include original box in good condition. That will give you an idea.

CupIsHalfEmpty

@Switchfoot55 I'm counting at least 3 white horses in your picture. The inventory shows it only comes with 1. You might find multiple sets in that box. Or you might find a whole bunch of random Lego. 

Johnyk668

And a dark grey horse, and a set of red minifigure legs. Something doesn't seem right 

stlux

@Switchfoot55 Sets (at least larger ones) from that era came with lovely trays in the box to display the main elements. Only the bricks were in bags. Those bags didn't look all that different from the ones TLG uses today - definitely not the ones you see in the picture of that "sealed" set.
Picture of my box to give you an idea what it should look like:



In addition shouldn't a sealed box from that era be actually sealed? TLG didn't use glue on these boxes, but shrinkwrapped them as far as I recall?

catwrangler

For 80s sets (in fact, right up until the late 90s - the last set like this I opened was #6083, from 1998), if the bricks are in the original sealed bags, those bags would be perforated all over with tiny little holes. The feel/sound of those bags is the Proustian madeleine of AFOLs of a certain age. Unfortunately Google's being rather unhelpful in finding a photographic example, probably because most collectors either open the bags, or don't even open the box in the first place.

SprinkleOtter

catwrangler said:

For 80s sets (in fact, right up until the late 90s - the last set like this I opened was #6083, from 1998), if the bricks are in the original sealed bags, those bags would be perforated all over with tiny little holes. The feel/sound of those bags is the Proustian madeleine of AFOLs of a certain age. Unfortunately Google's being rather unhelpful in finding a photographic example, probably because most collectors either open the bags, or don't even open the box in the first place.

I remember those bags- they were much more fun-sounding than the new bags. And easier to open.

madforLEGO

catwrangler said:

For 80s sets (in fact, right up until the late 90s - the last set like this I opened was #6083, from 1998), if the bricks are in the original sealed bags, those bags would be perforated all over with tiny little holes. The feel/sound of those bags is the Proustian madeleine of AFOLs of a certain age. Unfortunately Google's being rather unhelpful in finding a photographic example, probably because most collectors either open the bags, or don't even open the box in the first place.

Ahhh memories of that feeling and sound of the crinkling on Christmas morning. The other thing I think my parents liked was me being quiet for a length of time while I was building sets instead of screaming when opening my gifts.

VorpalRyu

Back from the dead...

stlux

Same at S@H EU; it doesn't even have the "Retiring Soon" tag anymore!

It's no longer listed under Exclusives though; only under the Creator theme.

With TLG's general incompetence when it comes to their website, who knows what this means. Likely just some returns from stores and the labelling on the site got messed up by the intern who is running the show today? Would be interesting to see what the production dates are on these boxes.

Onebricktoomany

It's like its own pet sematary!  Paging Steven King...

Jody

stlux said:

Same at S@H EU; it doesn't even have the "Retiring Soon" tag anymore!

It's no longer listed under Exclusives though; only under the Creator theme.

With TLG's general incompetence when it comes to their website, who knows what this means. Likely just some returns from stores and the labelling on the site got messed up by the intern who is running the show today? Would be interesting to see what the production dates are on these boxes.

Showing OOS on the US site right now.

sid3windr

OOS on EU now too :)

Switchfoot55

@stlux Thanks for the info. I got back in touch with the seller, and the more I pressed for answers, the more it all fell apart. Not to say that it wouldn't still have been worth $70, but as an investment to turn it for some additional profit, I didn't see it happening. 

I appreciate everyone who responded!

zhaobinis1

SithLord196 said:

Looks like Doctor Who and Wall-E are both out of stock at the U.S. S@H.

Some year 1 Dimensions packs are gone too. I missed the Bart pack, so I'll have to try and track it down at retail around here. Wonder how those might be for investment, mainly because of the mini-figures.

I just got 2 Wall E for $40 CAD each. I live in Canada of course. 

aduk

Anyone think the New clone turbo tank set #75151 will do well in the aftermarket? - I don't expect it to retire any time soon, but it seems to be on special in the U.K every week.

BuriedinBricks

@aduk - I think room for profit on Star Wars is going to be exceedingly difficult for most standard retail releases. Only the truly iconic stuff is going to see much movement after it retires...and only if it doesn't see a re-release in less than two years.

prevere

^I would agree with that statement, but then I look at the recent results of AT-AT and Star Destroyer, and I wonder. However, as Star Wars expands (very quickly I might add), I think you're going to get less re-releases simply because keeping up with new TV and Movie sets will be top priority. 

bandit778

With the quick turn around time on some of the less well known ships, would they be the sets that do better in the long run?
Take #75140 - retired after less than a year and the only set with Admiral Ackbar and Old Leia in (so far) from TFA. 
For those collecting now, I doubt there are many who have got it that didn't get it at some form of discount, but for those new to the hobby in a year or so when the Star Wars juggernaut is still  rolling on with new films and a new set of collectors, some of these quickly retired sets might do quite well.

prevere

Will be interesting if the RO sets retire quickly as well.

Jackad7

bandit778 said:

With the quick turn around time on some of the less well known ships, would they be the sets that do better in the long run?
Take #75140 - retired after less than a year and the only set with Admiral Ackbar and Old Leia in (so far) from TFA. 
For those collecting now, I doubt there are many who have got it that didn't get it at some form of discount, but for those new to the hobby in a year or so when the Star Wars juggernaut is still  rolling on with new films and a new set of collectors, some of these quickly retired sets might do quite well.

Most likely these will be the sets that are worth investing in. Many of the older sets spiked because of people who grew up with star wars got into collecting them well after they were done being created. Now that most people that are interested in collecting the older sets are into the market and keeping up on what they want I doubt older stuff is worth investing in. I would love to say UCS is a safe bet but if they continue with sets like Hoth and/or gives us PS level of release I wouldnt be confident. With the new movies picking up another generation into star wars I think if you sat on some of the more obscure sets that had unique figures we could see some growth when the younger fans start growing up. This being said it would be awhile to wait on sets.
Im wondering what about the UCS slave I? Its been out a couple of years and probably? will be retiring soon. If it does retire I could see a wave of popularity hitting with the Boba fett anthology movie causing it to spike. However for all I know lego see's that too and will keep making them for the next three and a half years to hit that market.

madforLEGO

prevere said:

^I would agree with that statement, but then I look at the recent results of AT-AT and Star Destroyer, and I wonder. However, as Star Wars expands (very quickly I might add), I think you're going to get less re-releases simply because keeping up with new TV and Movie sets will be top priority. 

The problem still is guessing when they will redo a set though. Some come out run and run then leave for a year, then come back.
UCS Slave 1 is an interesting animal. Sandcrawler is too, especially when TRU lost their minds and posted them at 40% RRP. But Im guessing we may never see another sandcrawler, whereas Im guessing we will see another Slave 1.

prevere

You'll never see another UCS version of each. Regular play model version - yes - with both - eventually. Assuming EV and SC are done, EV was out about a year more (3 years and change). That tells me UCS sets that sell well get an extended life. Is Slave I one of those sets? If so, then it potentially retires around March '18. If not, it retires sometime in '17. I get the feeling it is a strong seller. Of course, anything sells better than Hoth.

Huaojozu

Any free gifts on S&H planned in January? (I only seem to be able to find the US schedule).

I'm trying to decide between picking up a few sets now with the 10% VIP or later with 5% plus a gift.

Secretjedi

Lego can keep knocking out sets, but the point comes when stores won't have the physical room for sets on the shelves. Not many stores, even giants like Toys R Us are keen to have too many big boxes of slow selling £150+ Lego on the shelf. 

Slave 1 is a beauty of a set featuring one of the most popular Star Wars characters. Using rrp, I'd buy a S1 and another set of something rather than the Sandcrawler, but what to I know, I'm just going on what I like myself

madforLEGO

So now that sets are showing up as 'Out of Stock' on S@H US, what stays out of stock (sold out for good) and what could be coming back once their factories catch up?
For example, Is #76035 Jokerland really done?

Aanchir

I was surprised recently to see that #41178 is marked as "Sold Out" on the LEGO Shop site after less than six months on shelves. It is also out of stock on the Toys R Us website, and the Walmart website only has it from third-party sellers. The other summer Elves sets are all still available in Europe, and all but #41177 are still available in North America.

Any thoughts on why this particular set sold out so quickly and what its aftermarket chances might be? It has no exclusive mini-dolls, but it is the only set with the adult wind dragon Gust and the baby water dragon Rayne. I'm glad I added it to my collection before I missed my chance to get it at a reasonable price!

madforLEGO

If I recall, the only sets that typically sell out within 6 months of release are the ones that are exclusives to a retail outlet in the US. Nothing LEGO does now surprises me, but I also think the sell out at other stores may not mean much as that may be due more to a 'profit taking effect' in which certain people are trying to buy up stocks to raise their prices on a set that may be desirable around the holidays. That is why this time is interesting.
In the past LEGO used to sell out and it would be gone, but in recent years a set 'sold out' only to come back in a few weeks and stick around for some time after.
Just like the Pet shop could/should(IMO) be gone, but could very well still come back into stock for another year.

Aanchir

madforLEGO said:

If I recall, the only sets that typically sell out within 6 months of release are the ones that are exclusives to a retail outlet in the US. Nothing LEGO does now surprises me, but I also think the sell out at other stores may not mean much as that may be due more to a 'profit taking effect' in which certain people are trying to buy up stocks to raise their prices on a set that may be desirable around the holidays. That is why this time is interesting.
In the past LEGO used to sell out and it would be gone, but in recent years a set 'sold out' only to come back in a few weeks and stick around for some time after.
Just like the Pet shop could/should(IMO) be gone, but could very well still come back into stock for another year.

I don't think this one was a retailer exclusive… if it were I wouldn't have expected it to even be listed on as many sites as it was in the first place. Not to mention that I got mine at a LEGO Brand Store, and those haven't even been carrying new retailer exclusive sets for the last half year.

It seems like an odd choice of set to try and buy up to resell before the holidays, since I'm not aware of it winning any sort of toy awards or appearing on any major "must-have holiday toys" lists (the highest accolades I can remember it getting was an appearance on Brickset's holiday gift guide). But who knows?

If it does come back, I know that some people will certainly be grateful, since I became aware of it through a comment on Facebook from somebody who wanted it but couldn't find it. I doubt that person was alone in wanting to complete their set of dragons and suddenly finding it difficult.

prevere

madforLEGO said:

So now that sets are showing up as 'Out of Stock' on S@H US, what stays out of stock (sold out for good) and what could be coming back once their factories catch up?
For example, Is #76035 Jokerland really done?

I think a lot of the last batman wave may be close to EOL with the new wave 1 movie sets out.

Bricklover18

There hasn't been a new comment in two days...bump

SumoLego

We are all working on our bold 2017 predictions that are all invariably wrong...

nuttamastabuilda

^
Allow me to be first.  I predict 2017 starts this Saturday!

uriel

so when will the Death Star retire? :)))

Legoboy

uriel said:

so when will the Death Star retire? :)))

It won't be long at all now that the Rebellion have its plans.

Bumblepants

I just want the VW Camper Van to go away already. That one is close to passing up the first Death Star playset for most ridiculously long lifespan.

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

I just want the VW Camper Van to go away already. That one is close to passing up the first Death Star playset for most ridiculously long lifespan.

I want the Tower Bridge and Sydney Opera House to disappear as well.  (This way, someone will want the extra once sitting in my garage.)

stlux

SOH is tagged Retiring Soon, and is TooS on S@H EU and Sold Out on S@H US. In the next couple of weeks these will likely only be available on S@H when stock is returned. No idea of course how many TRU & Co still have. Not available from any retailer anymore where I live.

No relief in sight for your spare TB's - seems like this set wants to at least rival, if not surpass, the lifespan of #10188... and then maybe also gets resurrected ;)

Switchfoot55

nuttamastabuilda said:

^
Allow me to be first.  I predict 2017 starts this Saturday!

Doesn't 2017 start on Sunday?

lordzarak

Switchfoot55 said:

nuttamastabuilda said:

^
Allow me to be first.  I predict 2017 starts this Saturday!

Doesn't 2017 start on Sunday?

Thus, the first invariably wrong prediction for the new year.

stlux

@SumoLego You might be in luck regarding #10234 SOH: 53 already got sold (new) this month on BL, which is a rather large increase over the prior months. So it seems the demand is there to help you clear your garage ;)

CCC

SumoLego said:

We are all working on our bold 2017 predictions that are all invariably wrong...

I predict Lego will do an architecture series Trump Tower, but in Lego's slow progress to get it to market Lepin will get their version out first. With no royalties going to the Donald, he'll nuke China and so starts Armageddon. At which point our Lego will be pretty much worthless.

Switchfoot55

^But Lepin will be gone :) 

Shib

CCC said:

SumoLego said:

We are all working on our bold 2017 predictions that are all invariably wrong...

I predict Lego will do an architecture series Trump Tower, but in Lego's slow progress to get it to market Lepin will get their version out first. With no royalties going to the Donald, he'll nuke China and so starts Armageddon. At which point our Lego will be pretty much worthless.

Or a new valuable currency for the few survivors ;-)