Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego

^ Treading very thin, veeeeeery thin...

Pitfall69

^Oh, NOW I'm treading very thin??? ;)

Sorry, I'm out of sorts. My grandma died a couple of days ago and I was just sitting in her room passing the time entertaining myself before Thanksgiving dinner is served. 

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

^Oh, NOW I'm treading very thin??? ;)

Sorry, I'm out of sorts. My grandma died a couple of days ago and I was just sitting in her room passing the time entertaining myself before Thanksgiving dinner is served. 

Sorry to hear about your Grandmother. My best wishes to you and your family. It is never easy to lose a loved one, but especially hard when it occurs around the holidays.

Pitfall69

I didn't really mean to mention it, but I find that humor, no matter how dry, helps me through things. I know this is awful, but my wife asked me "What are we going to do about Thanksgiving now?" I responded in typical fashion: "There will be more food." My wife rolled her eyes. I do not know why she expected anything less from me. 

My Thanksgiving was fine; I miss my gram, but it was good...it was.

Pitfall69

So...Will there be anything worth buying for Brick Friday? 

SprinkleOtter

Pitfall69 said:

So...Will there be anything worth buying for Brick Friday? 

Not at this rate...

Jackad7

Pitfall69 said:

So...Will there be anything worth buying for Brick Friday? 

I'm probably going to gas up tomorrow. Not because it's on sale but because I need gas.

Pitfall69

^With all that turkey and deviled eggs...

madforLEGO

Pet shops are 20% off at US S@H. Kinda of surprised they have lasted this long

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

^With all that turkey and deviled eggs...

That's more like it.  

stlux

On topic again (naughty me): Pet Shop now listed as Retired on S@H EU.

S@H US has it 20% off for anybody who still didn't get it in the past 5 years...

prevere

Pet shop still going strong this morning. Reminds me when Kramer was very low on gas but wouldn't stop driving.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tDnAzGpxR4k

madforLEGO

Amazon also has price matched it to $119.99. Appears to be limit one.

Jackad7

Whenever I see stores discounting buildable figures it gives me a good laugh. They're going to have to start paying people to get rid of those.

madforLEGO

Pet shop is now out of stock at S@H US; still price matched at Amazon

black_towr

I've never parted out a set and was wondering how do you figure out the part out value of a set. 

Bricklover18

Brick link has part out values for sets.  They also have a current price guide of what a new or used set goes for.

Fireheart

SOH is now a retired product on the S&H UK site.

VorpalRyu

All Scooby Doo sets now listed as retired on S@H for AU, EU, etc... Currently OOS for US, how much longer before people think they'll be extinct in the US too?

Bumblepants

^Probably soon. That said, there will still be some TRU locations who have them listed 20% above RRP covered in dust on a back shelf somewhere for the next year or two.

3stackshs

Pet shop is back to $145.95 on Amazon.  I can't believe there is still stock after being discounted.  I think that speaks towards how many sets are already stashed away.

madforLEGO

3stackshs said:

Pet shop is back to $145.95 on Amazon.  I can't believe there is still stock after being discounted.  I think that speaks towards how many sets are already stashed away.

Was that Amazon selling them, or a third party selling through Amazon? I see a third party with them at about $144 with 16 left.

3stackshs

At the time it was Amazon.

madforLEGO

3stackshs said:

At the time it was Amazon.

So it appears that Amazon is out as well, if this holds up, the other retails will be sold out online in short order.

floridabrick

PS is now "Backorder" on S@H (from Sold Out).

floridabrick

...and still on sale for $119...

Rainstorm26

gone now :(

madforLEGO

Rainstorm26 said:

gone now :(

Walmart has them for 119.99 but not sure for how long at that price. Target has them at 145.99 as well.
Like every other set that is at its end of life, it likely will pop back up online a couple of times due to cancelled transactions, more found in warehouse, maybe returned items or if stores send them back, etc etc. But its effect of being sold out at LEGO is also causing people to buy them up at other retailers as Amazon had priced matched (but had a limit of one per purchase) and is now gone from there. May be able to find them in other retailers for retail still but if you want it and can get one for 119.99 I would say pull the trigger as they will likely only rise in cost. The good news is that there will probably be those still selling them for near retail for a bit of time if they got them from LEGO at the 119.99.

Farmer_John

I have to wonder if the Palace Cinema #10232 will be gone within the next 6 months...after the Assembly Square #10255 is released. It's currently on backorder along with the Parisian Restaurant #10243. The PC is now the only modular still out that's priced at $150 and it's been out for almost 4 years now. Interestingly enough, there has historically been some scuttlebutt in this thread (albeit over the past couple of years) that the EOL of the PC was imminent. Obviously those didn't pan out, but I can see the PC being gone before summer.

Jody

All of the modulars were backordered last week at S@H, with a ship by 12/12 note. I ordered the detectives office and it shipped yesterday. 

Farmer_John

I figured as much, but I still think PC is not long for this world.

On a another note, the High Speed Passenger Train #60051 is currently on sale for 44% off...$84 at Amazon. I haven't seen it priced that low. If you've been waiting to get this set, now might be a good time.

madforLEGO

Farmer_John said:

I figured as much, but I still think PC is not long for this world.

On a another note, the High Speed Passenger Train #60051 is currently on sale for 44% off...$84 at Amazon. I haven't seen it priced that low. If you've been waiting to get this set, now might be a good time.

#60051 now  appears out of stock with Amazon and not surprising.

PC I'm guessing will be around until next fall, just like the PS. I get that there is talk about not being as loved, and being the last 149.99 set and all, but one could have made that argument about the PS as well. I think LEGO is comfortable with the number of mods out at any given time and it must make economic sense or PS would have been gone sooner OR PC and PS would be gone right now. Since they plastered the 'retiring soon' label on the PS Im guessing that will occur when the PC time is near as well.

That being said, like any other LEGO set: If you really want one, get it because we really have no idea what LEGO will do anymore with their scheduling.

Jody

I think that this Lepin thing is going to change the way Lego handles some of the bigger, more popular sets. One seller alone has already sold over 500 copies of the bootleg UCS Falcon, and who knows what all of the other sellers combined have sold. There may very well be some economic sense in extending the availability of these sets beyond the traditional time frame we are use to. I honestly think it would be possible for Lego to hold a supply of popular sets long term in certain markets and make them only available by mail order. The boomerang effect of this could mean that Lego investors will buy less of the sets, and sales could lag overall. I think Lepin is already starting to hurt the secondary market, and will continue to do so. It would be an interesting study in economics for sure. 

monkeyhanger

^What are TLG going to do about the fact that the Lepin version of any medium/large set (retired or current) is significantly cheaper than TLG's RRP?

I suspect many of those buyers of the UCS MF knockoffs wouldn't have paid £350 for one, let alone the likely £450-500 price it would be now if rereleased.

piratemania7

PC should be gone within a year - within a year presumably we will have the next modular at least on tap being released after Assembly Square and it doesn't suit TLG well to keep too many out and available at once.  I think naturally with the PC being the next oldest it's next in line - of course - Town Hall - threw that theory out the window.  As a whole it just seems the most natural to me, especially being the last $150 set as someone above already mentioned.  Should be interesting to watch!

prevere

monkeyhanger said:

^What are TLG going to do about the fact that the Lepin version of any medium/large set (retired or current) is significantly cheaper than TLG's RRP?

I suspect many of those buyers of the UCS MF knockoffs wouldn't have paid £350 for one, let alone the likely £450-500 price it would be now if rereleased.

TLG is not going to do anything as long as they are selling a set every 3 seconds during the holiday season, where they make about 80% of their $. I bet if you plop down on a chair in the LEGO aisle at TRU, Target or Wal-Mart and ask 50 people if they've heard of Lepin...49 people would say 'no'.

lordzarak

I know what Lepin is. It's what French bowlers try to knock down.

SithLord196

Or what the lords are doing during the 12 redneck days of Christmas.

Briking

^I didn't even realise the French played cricket.  Are you looking for the word 'stumps'?

Aanchir

Briking said:

^I didn't even realise the French played cricket.  Are you looking for the word 'stumps'?

I guess his pun was unexpectedly US-centric — over here, a bowler is a person who plays the sport of bowling, not cricket.

Briking

^The beauty of a global forum!  Every day is a school day.

Lyichir

piratemania7 said:

PC should be gone within a year - within a year presumably we will have the next modular at least on tap being released after Assembly Square and it doesn't suit TLG well to keep too many out and available at once.  I think naturally with the PC being the next oldest it's next in line - of course - Town Hall - threw that theory out the window.  As a whole it just seems the most natural to me, especially being the last $150 set as someone above already mentioned.  Should be interesting to watch!

Counterpoint—the Palace Cinema may get a new lease on life next year, when Lego has not one but two new movies in theaters. It's already been used on the back of this year's November/December Lego Club Magazine to promote the upcoming release of The Lego Batman Movie. And it's entirely possible that Lego will want to do a promotion where they offer movie poster stickers with sales of the Palace Cinema (as they did with the Lego Movie) for both the Lego Batman and Lego Ninjago movies. So given that, I would not be surprised to see the Palace Cinema last at least through the end of next year if not longer.

madforLEGO

piratemania7 said:

PC should be gone within a year - within a year presumably we will have the next modular at least on tap being released after Assembly Square and it doesn't suit TLG well to keep too many out and available at once.  I think naturally with the PC being the next oldest it's next in line - of course - Town Hall - threw that theory out the window.  As a whole it just seems the most natural to me, especially being the last $150 set as someone above already mentioned.  Should be interesting to watch!

I never consider Town Hall as part of the typical modular set. It was a larger design and much more in term of cost vs what a typical mod cost. Town Hall is a mod for sure, but not a typical mod IMO. It is the same reason why I could see Assembly Hall only being out for about 2 year run. While a mod, it is not a 'standard' mod.

Lyichir said:

piratemania7 said:

PC should be gone within a year - within a year presumably we will have the next modular at least on tap being released after Assembly Square and it doesn't suit TLG well to keep too many out and available at once.  I think naturally with the PC being the next oldest it's next in line - of course - Town Hall - threw that theory out the window.  As a whole it just seems the most natural to me, especially being the last $150 set as someone above already mentioned.  Should be interesting to watch!

Counterpoint—the Palace Cinema may get a new lease on life next year, when Lego has not one but two new movies in theaters. It's already been used on the back of this year's November/December Lego Club Magazine to promote the upcoming release of The Lego Batman Movie. And it's entirely possible that Lego will want to do a promotion where they offer movie poster stickers with sales of the Palace Cinema (as they did with the Lego Movie) for both the Lego Batman and Lego Ninjago movies. So given that, I would not be surprised to see the Palace Cinema last at least through the end of next year if not longer.

PC could still get a special Batman Movie promo sticker (with the purchase of PC) and still be gone by end of '17. Now I know LEGO could do anything, as a they have shown in the past, but my educated guess is that the schedule stays as is and PC is gone at this time next year, regardless of movies due out.

Pitfall69

Briking said:

^The beauty of a global forum!  Every day is a school day.

Yeah, I was itching to go to the UK for the High Holiday's because I thought it was awesome that after Christmas there's a special day where you can walk around a punch the crap out of people. Boy was I mistaken ;)

VorpalRyu

@Pitfall69, I gather you're referring to Boxing day... From Google: mid 19th century: from the custom of giving tradespeople a Christmas box on this day. I learnt something too & we have Boxing day here.

We normally have an open house thing on Boxing day, from 10am to 10pm, any of our friends who want to can come hang out, eat food (we normally have plenty of stuff left over from xmas day) & escape those annoying relatives they can't stand. Makes it easier for us to catch up with everyone around that time of year, we started it the year James was born because we didn't want to have to work out a schedule to travel around to see everyone we knew. Several of our friends make it known to their families that they "expected" to turn up, aka a good excuse to get a days peace from the irritating rellies, especially the ones from interstate or overseas.

monkeyhanger

Pitfall69 said:

Briking said:

^The beauty of a global forum!  Every day is a school day.

Yeah, I was itching to go to the UK for the High Holiday's because I thought it was awesome that after Christmas there's a special day where you can walk around a punch the crap out of people. Boy was I mistaken ;)

Pitfall: We have one of those days, but it is before Christmas. The Friday before Christmas is known as "Black Eye Friday" in some parts due to it being one of the booziest nights out of the year, and some people just cannot resist being up for a fight after 12 pints.

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

Briking said:

^The beauty of a global forum!  Every day is a school day.

Yeah, I was itching to go to the UK for the High Holiday's because I thought it was awesome that after Christmas there's a special day where you can walk around a punch the crap out of people. Boy was I mistaken ;)

You can save some airfare money by just going north of the border. Also, the Canadian dollar is pretty low now, so that's good.

Keep in mind, I travel a lot to Canada and their diet seems to be beer and wheaties. Fortunately they're more of a passive-aggressive lot (as opposed to aggressive-aggressive).

Pitfall69

^I will keep that in mind; I was just hoping to take a few shots @Legoboy ;)

Legoboy

Dream on, pussy.

SumoLego

Farmer_John said:
Fortunately they're more of a passive-aggressive lot (as opposed to aggressive-aggressive).

I think you mean 'polite-aggressive', eh?