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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,176
    A couple of sets now have a Retiring Soon tag on [email protected] EU:

    Several more Ideas sets in addition to #21304 Dr. Who (already has that label since Sept 28):
    Also some of the larger exclusives:
    I already have all of these, so no need for me to panic-buy right now.
    William_TownsleymadforLEGO
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,176
    So seems like TLG only wants 5 modulars at a time on their shelves after all.
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    I suppose now, with the double VIP, is as good a time as any to stock up on some Operas.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,146
    My fiance really wants the Sydney Opera House set but not sure I'll be able to pull it off before Christmas without some luck.

    Interestingly enough, Doctor Who is still listed as 'New' on the U.S. [email protected] None of the above listed sets are listed as 'Retiring Soon' on the U.S. site either.
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,176
    From limited experience, sets seem to hang on longer on the US [email protected], retiring months after they have EOL'd on the EU [email protected]
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,176
    Technic #42041 Race Truck now tagged as Retired Product on EU [email protected] Still available on US [email protected]
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,059
    stlux said:
    So seems like TLG only wants 5 modulars at a time on their shelves after all.
    One would think - I mean, it provides too many choices for some people and will detract from overall sales on the newer sets.  I think with the older ones people have had an opportunity to purchase so its time to move over for the newer ones.
    AanchirmadforLEGO
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    stlux said:
    And sorry for all these on topic posts! I feel like I'm going against the spirit of this thread...
    Keep them coming! I fully expect 42030 to be gone before the year is up.
  • josekaleljosekalel Rio Grande Valley, TexasMember Posts: 680
    Now I have to get #21108...
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector BirminghamMember Posts: 750
    The Retiring Soon search option on [email protected] UK site is pretty rubbish. It still only shows one item due to retire but if you select items previously mentioned, their pictures do indicate they are retiring soon!

    @stlux How did you manage to discover those sets were retiring soon? By accident?
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,176
    @SeanTheCollector I was alerted to the Retiring Soon tags on the Ideas sets on another forum. As I then saw that these tags were only visible when going to the set's page, I opened every exclusive set in a new tab to check the tags...
    FireheartsnowhitieSeanTheCollectorBumblepants
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 472
    stlux said:
    @SeanTheCollector I was alerted to the Retiring Soon tags on the Ideas sets on another forum. As I then saw that these tags were only visible when going to the set's page, I opened every exclusive set in a new tab to check the tags...
    Thanks for the heads up on that!

    I was looking at the retiring soon filter i.e. How Doctor Who is listed... Shows how the new [email protected] website is hiding this...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,326
    I would say that for anyone on the fence for the Pet shop to get one, it really is unique as it, and Market street, are the only mods that can 'split in half' and be moved around from its other half (thought MS is a bit cheap in its other half of the 'building'. I kinda expected the Assembly Square to be that way, but it does not appear to be.

    After seeing the bank it made me realize that LEGO could do a police precinct in the same design as the bank layout, mostly Police HQ with a little (donut) shop on the side of it.

    SeanTheCollectorYodaliciousprevere
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 472
    For a Star Wars fan could #10236 Ewok Village be the last time we see an Ewok set? And will this particular one become a new classic? 
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,146
    I feel as though #10236 may be the only chance for a large scale Ewok set like it is, at least based off the original trilogy. I highly recommend it actually, it was one of my favorite builds. I do think it can become a new classic as it is a very unique set among the Star Wars offerings in my opinion.

    Smaller Ewok sets will probably still make appearances every once in a while, as they are a very popular aspect of Return of the Jedi for kids.

    Also, I don't think a new movie with Ewoks in it is outside the realm of possibility, so that would probably generate a few new sets as well if it were to happen.
    wardm
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 888
    Only downside to #10236 is that it's not UCS
  • josekaleljosekalel Rio Grande Valley, TexasMember Posts: 680
    I love Star Wars but I don't think I can quite settle on getting #10236. I know it's an amazing set, but I think I should buy modulars instead of this...decisions...
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 334
    Why has Palace Cinema become sort of "lost" in the official modular discussion. It was NOT mentioned during the official announcement for the new set. That just seems odd to me, that PC and PS were not mentioned. Obviously we all have been expecting PS to be retired, does anyone here think PC could also slip into history?

    I already have mine, so I'm not worried. I just find it odd nobody is talking about it.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Obviously we all have been expecting PS to be retired, does anyone here think PC could also slip into history?

    Wouldn't surprise me a bit. It also wouldn't surprise me if it is around for another three years. 
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    PC has always been the odd man out (other than MS obviously). Style doesn't fit, too small to be a true theater, etc. I, personally, really like it, but at times it seems like LEGO wants to forget it happened. 
    SumoLegocatwranglerwardm
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,844
    ^ I like the PC!
    BumblepantsYodaliciouscatwrangler
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 334
    edited October 2016
    PC was the first modular I bought, for two reasons. 

    1. I like the design. I like that it is different than the rest. I really like the car that it came with too. 
    2. I thought it was the best of the ones that were available at the time I bought it. Yes I like TH better (I recently aquired the Lepin version, I'm a heritic). So yes, some of the retired modulars I will probably prefer to PC. But having said that it will always be one of my personal favs. Top 5 or so, not at the bottom like most.
    catwrangler
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Unless Lego releases another corner building next year, I feel the PC will stick around. I think that having 2 corner buildings always available is a good thing, but I agree the PC seems out of place. 
    catwrangler
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,760
    I like the PC a lot. I really like how the red roof stands out on the street and mixes nicely with the dark tan exterior. The movie posters are great too. I don't mind the 6 seat theater or worry about scale. To me it is just another aspect of the Lego World. Most cars fit just a single driver, Restaurants have 2-3 tables at most, the new dentist office has just one chair etc. If everything scaled to real-world it would be too expensive and too repetitive and boring. 
    stluxbandit778LostInTranslationericbcatwrangler
  • the1whitetigerthe1whitetiger in a pile of LegoMember Posts: 20
    Just a quick question. I am about to buy my 3rd pet shop. for some reason I can use more VIP points than I have. A bug? I have 65 points but in the drop down box I can pick 400 points (thats 20 euros!) Weird... I am not sure If I should try it.. Too bad I noticed because first I didn't pay attention to how much I really have. Anyone else have that (fortunate) problem?
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 472
    It looks like the retiring soon tag is working on the sets mentioned above now i.e. You can filter on it..

  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,146
    The Palace Cinema was the first modular I received. I really like the exterior. My fiance got it for me for Christmas the other year (and then proceeded to open it and wrap every individual bag, plate, and the box).

    It does seem a bit under the radar though, and not as popular as the others. I do think that could cause it to just sort of suddenly retire without much fanfare or warning.
    ricecakeYodaliciouscatwrangler
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I wonder if we'll ever see a modular again that is only for one business. From DO on, they seem to be cramming in at least one additional storefront in the designs. Frankly - I'm ok with that, as that is how downtown buildings are.
  • josekaleljosekalel Rio Grande Valley, TexasMember Posts: 680
    So, would y'all recommend I get the Parisian Restaurant since it seems to still be OOS at Amazon? I don't want to not get it and then have to spend more than I should. Plus, I can still take advantage of the double VIP points at [email protected]
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,326
    josekalel said:
    So, would y'all recommend I get the Parisian Restaurant since it seems to still be OOS at Amazon? I don't want to not get it and then have to spend more than I should. Plus, I can still take advantage of the double VIP points at [email protected]
    IMO If you have the means to buy a LEGO set that you want, then buy it. I try to at least wait til double points or a promo is available to buy a new set I want. Like this year LEGO is no longer doing the pre BF store sales, but having some sort of VIP double point event on Nov 19-20th online and in store with early access to BF offers (I presume to the promo as well). The will have some sort of offer involved, but the toy soldier ornament is also available Nov 1-15th. The Snowglobe will be around on the 25th and it appears during that 19-20th promo as well.
    So if anyone is holding off on that LEGO set (specifically ones that likely will not be discounted in the US) then this may be the month to buy it.
    josekalel
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 938
    stevemack said:
    Only downside to #10236 is that it's not UCS

    ... you're forgetting that it also contains those annoying little ewoks! 

    I've forgiven George Lucas for a lot of things, even Episode I, but he totally destroyed Episode VI with the addition of those things....

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    @Pitfall69 I mean Jar jar is far worse than ewoks. Come on.
    juggles7floridabrickMooreFXmadforLEGOthedingman5
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Lobot said:
    stevemack said:
    Only downside to #10236 is that it's not UCS

    ... you're forgetting that it also contains those annoying little ewoks! 

    I've forgiven George Lucas for a lot of things, even Episode I, but he totally destroyed Episode VI with the addition of those things....

    So not a big fan of the Ewok Xmas special?
    SprinkleOtterLobot
  • historicalhistorical Member Posts: 19
    First time investor here. I would like to buy a couple LEGO sets for resale within the next 6 month. But am not sure which would gain above MSRP quickly in that time frame? My budget is $300-$500 max and I can't decide between pet shop, palace cinema, sydney opera house, Sandcrawler or ewok village. My orginal thought was 1 pet shop and 1 cinema, but do modulars take a couple years to gain momentum on the secondary market? Also Pet shop has been around FOREVER so I assume availability is more common. Would like to order some now and some when the snowglobe is available, but don't want to wait too long and regret not purchasing. 

    Would like to make at least a 50% profit on each set (after ebay fees), whatever I get. 

    Suggestions would be great! thank you.
  • HugeYellowBrickHugeYellowBrick At my PCMember Posts: 485
    The great boom is over, because everyone is onto this idea. I don't think any of the sets you mention will give that much profit in only six months, they are neither rare nor terribly desirable.

    Don't get hung up on any particular sets. Shop entirely for potential profit. If you can restrain yourself until Black Friday, you can get 20% off at LEGO online, which will be a good start. Check Amazon offers. Check the retail stores. Look for 2-for-3 offers. Look for items in the after Christmas sales.
    cloaked7
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    If the sets have only just been marked as "retiring soon", that could easily mean they're still available in three months time - or longer. I doubt there have ever been many sets that were worth 50% more (without factoring in fees) just a couple of months after retirement, unless you've been able to find them at a considerable discount in the first place - and that comes down to luck and being in the right place at the right time.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @historical The higher the RRP, the more likely it will go high quickly. Reason is volume in the wild will typically be lower since it's so costly to buy in and more difficult to hoard in great numbers.

    My choice would be the Sandcrawler for that reason. Example is what happened with #10221 UCS Super Star Destroyer. It made a big jump of 50% over RRP within a year if I recall. Now after a bit over 2 years since EOL, it's at just over 2x RRP.

    PS was hoarded extensively and cheaply since it was found on sale quite a few times. PC is not yet due to go, but if it does a surprise EOL I expect it to out pace PS.

    SOH and EV are more of a crap shoot about what will happen in short to medium terms.
    dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Buying Pet Shop at RRP or even a slight discount won't yield the 50% you are looking for after Ebay fees in just a few months time. If you are willing to hold onto stock for a year or so, it may get you 30%. If you got them for $111-115 and sell them for around $250 USD, you may make a $100 profit after a year.

    The Sandcrawler won't be remade for a long time, if ever again. I think it will do ok after it retires. There are going to be so many future Star Wars movies that it will keep the fire burning for that theme. 
    stluxcloaked7
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 334
    I also don't expect the PS to do HUGE numbers once it's gone either. Like what was said earlier, if you want to get on a modular, the PC is probably the smarter bet. It has NEVER been a a very popular set, but once it's gone I bet opinions will change on it.

    But strictly for resale? I think BOTH SW sets are the safer bet. That theme isn't going anywhere, but those sets are, and not likely to ever be released again.
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Right now, I'm not buying anything until I start to some real movement on sets retiring. If this trend continues, I'll can seemingly wait YEARS sets to invest in newer releases.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyuPitfall69pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).
    I wouldn't bet on it. I got all of mine at an average of $110 USD a piece. I am sure there are many other people that have gotten them cheaper than I did. I only bought (4) ; one for me and the others to part out.
    madforLEGOpharmjodYodaliciouspiratemania7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,326
    edited October 2016
    Lobot said:
    stevemack said:
    Only downside to #10236 is that it's not UCS

    ... you're forgetting that it also contains those annoying little ewoks! 

    I've forgiven George Lucas for a lot of things, even Episode I, but he totally destroyed Episode VI with the addition of those things....

    Just remember the Ewoks are meat eaters (gee where did all of those storm troopers really go?) and they are more tolerable IMO. Jar Jar on the other hand really has no redeemable qualities and I think that is why he is the patsy that starts the downfall of the republic in Epi II.
    prevere said:
    Right now, I'm not buying anything until I start to some real movement on sets retiring. If this trend continues, I'll can seemingly wait YEARS sets to invest in newer releases.

    Yeah the silver lining for me with this is that I do not have oodles of money to spend on LEGO at this time, so I do hope a lot of these sets stick around for at least another year.

    Pitfall69 said:
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).
    I wouldn't bet on it. I got all of mine at an average of $110 USD a piece. I am sure there are many other people that have gotten them cheaper than I did. I only bought (4) ; one for me and the others to part out.

    Yeah some got them cheaper still I believe. To be honest the set probably should have been retail at 149.99 USD IMO.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).

    Trains have a long shelf life and there aren't new trains planned for 2017. This one still has a year or two left and won't be discontinued. 
    catwrangler
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,326
    Ma1234 said:
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).

    Trains have a long shelf life and there aren't new trains planned for 2017. This one still has a year or two left and won't be discontinued. 
    Agreed, not sure why people think it is a grand idea to buy and flip current LEGO sets, that is almost a sure fire way to lose money IMO. People need to remember if they find it on the internet for that price, a LOT of others will too AND will come to sites like this to post the deals (if not BP) more often than naught.

    Now, I HAVE seen folks buy sets like the train sets and break them open to sell the individual components (like the locomotive, cars, crane, track etc all separately) and make a few bucks, but it seems to be an awful lot of effort for, IMO, a little payback (and also others are doing the same thing so you are competing with them and their prices)
    josekalel
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,731
    Pitfall69 said:
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).
    I wouldn't bet on it. I got all of mine at an average of $110 USD a piece. I am sure there are many other people that have gotten them cheaper than I did. I only bought (4) ; one for me and the others to part out.
    You have a BL store?
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    Ma1234 said:
    Huaojozu said:
    I am contemplating buying 60052 Cargo Train, while it's discounted on Amazon (120 EUR). As I have no idea about resale value of EOL trains, is this one to try an flip immediately for 20% profit or hold on to for a year or two? With the Xmas coming, I am thinking this could be easily resold (cheapest around here is 150 EUR).

    Trains have a long shelf life and there aren't new trains planned for 2017. This one still has a year or two left and won't be discontinued. 
    Agreed, not sure why people think it is a grand idea to buy and flip current LEGO sets, that is almost a sure fire way to lose money IMO. People need to remember if they find it on the internet for that price, a LOT of others will too AND will come to sites like this to post the deals (if not BP) more often than naught.

    Now, I HAVE seen folks buy sets like the train sets and break them open to sell the individual components (like the locomotive, cars, crane, track etc all separately) and make a few bucks, but it seems to be an awful lot of effort for, IMO, a little payback (and also others are doing the same thing so you are competing with them and their prices)

    I believe this varies country by country. While people in my country have warmed up to online shopping over the last few years, a very tiny percentage of them shop on non-domestic sites. Therefore getting deals like this and then reselling for small profit is done on just about any commodity, not just Lego (heck, I've seen people successfully reselling Lepin with 30% mark up). Mind you, I'm not talking about a large profit, but a quick 10% is good enough for me.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,802

    Lobot said:
    stevemack said:
    Only downside to #10236 is that it's not UCS

    ... you're forgetting that it also contains those annoying little ewoks! 

    I've forgiven George Lucas for a lot of things, even Episode I, but he totally destroyed Episode VI with the addition of those things....

    Just remember the Ewoks are meat eaters (gee where did all of those storm troopers really go?) and they are more tolerable IMO. Jar Jar on the other hand really has no redeemable qualities and I think that is why he is the patsy that starts the downfall of the republic in Epi II.
    Jar-Jar's redeeming value, IMO, is that in Episode I he's a pure slapstick/comic relief character. He's literally there for you to enjoy watching unpleasant things happen to him.

    IMO, the most cringeworthy joke in any of the movies had nothing to do with Jar-Jar — it was the "C-3PO getting his head swapped with a battle droid" gag.
    SprinkleOtterLobotLyichir
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