Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Might last a little longer online and on dusty Toys R Us shelves but that is probably it.
    Until the sequel...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,708
    So I was looking at the Lego Shop online and on the front page ist said: Get the Angry Birds sets before they fly off the shelf. So what does that mean? Are they retiring? How long were Toy story sets available? I do not think they are a good investment. I have some for the parts but got a good deal on them. I was just wondering if Sets based on movies retire faster than others. I haven't paid much attention to those sets in the past... Or maybe the shelves are loaded with them because no one is buying and they keep falling out? No idea... *hoping to end the Faux pas discussion* :-)
    It probably means they haven't been selling so well and someone has been told to give them an extra little push.
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,331
    It is that time of year again!!!! It will be interesting to see what is 'retiring soon' and retired this fall. Typically this is when sets start selling out and not coming back into stock..
    So what is everyone's guesses this year (besides 'see last years list')?

    I still see the following retiring sooner than later (I would presume by December, but not willing to stake a bet on it) :
    Tower Bridge
    Pet Shop
    VW Camper
    Fairground Mixer
    Ecto-1
    Ewok Village
    Death Star (just kidding)
    UCS Sandcrawler
    Mini Cooper
    Santa's workshop
    The Simpsons house (Simpsons Kwik e mart?)
    Older City sets (like Demo site theme) will likely be discounted to move by the end of this year

    Blue Cargo train or heavy haul train (because I am hard pressed to see LEGO keep both out for an extended time). Blue cargo train is older, but Heavy Haul train could be one of those one and done 'special' types of train, in any case both seem a bit overpriced, considering the masssive discounts see on the Blue cargo train in the past year (as well as LEGO discounting the Heavy Haul train occasion by 20-25%, at least in the US)
    William_Townsley
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    ^ This feels like the same list from 2015.
    William_Townsleyexciter1madforLEGOpharmjodVorpalRyuTheMaker37
  • William_TownsleyWilliam_Townsley Perth, Scotland Member Posts: 880
    I had that feeling as well it even includes the Death Star 
  • MattDawsonMattDawson Solihull, UKMember Posts: 1,202
    edited October 2016
    @madforLEGO
    The City Trains line does rounds every four years (1 x freight, 1 x passenger, 2 x accessory pack), with a special cargo train the following year. The last 'run' came in 2014, with the special in 2015, so it's unlikely we'll see something before 2018. Sadly.
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    I've (only) read about 30 pages of this thread so forgive me if I am bringing up an old topic.

    In my country, sales on large sets are pretty much non-existent. The only ones that go on sale are the small ones (max 50$ish) which are carried by the likes of Tesco, which treats them like all other toys. Specialized toy stores usually mark up the price in advance and then when the sets are 20% off, they come near or just below the RRP.

    So I'm thinking my best bet is to buy from Lego Shop directly, during double VIP points for that sweet 10% discount. Here is where my question comes in - does Lego ever do discounts in their shops? Is it worth looking at the shop every once in a few days to see if something went on sale?

    On the other hand, the above does help the retail price of EOLs. Grand Emporium for example, which Lego sold for equiv 180$ is now selling at 360$ cheapest. Though I am a bit worried that people will now turn to Lepin over shelling out such immense amount of money for EOLs (considering 360$ is roughly the minimum monthly wage here).
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,708
    Not really to Lego discounting in store.

    Plus now every man and his dog know you just buy any modular then it is worth double within six months of it retiring. Reselling has really changed over the past few years, there is more competition now from other sellers plus the existence of Lepin.
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 122
    As the ghostbusters reboot has been and gone without anyone seeming to care, will the ecto 1 and 2 be retired before the ecto 1 from the original film?

    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    ^ I think it'll hang around until the end of the year to support the new Dimensions Level Pack. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,331
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I think it'll hang around until the end of the year to support the new Dimensions Level Pack. 
    The new Ecto-1 will probably hang around longer depending on how many of those sets LEGO made to promote the film. To be honest, it does not look like a horrible set and I have been meaning to get at least one of them.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    It'seems not a bad build at all.  I have to admit, I now cringe at the DeLorean, as it sits next to both Ecto-1s.
    stlux
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    edited October 2016
    Quick question : how long does it typically take [email protected] to ship an item which is marked "backorder" ?

    I was meaning to order the Porsche which is marked as that . "With a will ship by 30th October" note.

    So when they give you a backorder date is it generally a safe date and they ship it by the week or push it right to the given date ?

    Many thanks 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,708
    Often they ship much earlier, it seems they give very pessimistic dates so you are happy when it ships early.
    VortexdougtsJern92
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    edited October 2016
    Cheers @CCC ,thought as much. It'd be terrific to hear from anyone who has had their's shipped off to them recently . I will be outbound by the 30th not sure if I should risk it .

    Alternatively I could go ahead and order " Detective Agency" and Brick Bank instead . Should make it to me by weeks end . I was really keen on the 911. 

    Suggestions/advice ?

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    I think the "under the radar" surprise retirement this year might be Temple of Airjitzu.  Lego stores have discounted it heavily (50% off at some locations) which is odd considering it's an exclusive.  UCS B-Wing similarities?  Take that for what it's worth.  
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,781
    ^Interesting thought. Initially I was thinking they might want to keep it around at least until the Ninjago Movie launches next summer. But if there is a giant set planned for the film then that would likely require the Temple to be out of the way first.
    catwranglerLyichir
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    mathew said:
    I think the "under the radar" surprise retirement this year might be Temple of Airjitzu.  Lego stores have discounted it heavily (50% off at some locations) which is odd considering it's an exclusive.  UCS B-Wing similarities?  Take that for what it's worth.  
    Agree it'll probably be retired but "some" locations is literally just two stores, the Disney park stores, which have always operated a little different with certain sales and promos. 
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 889
    I was about to say, I've never seen it discounted at all, let alone 50% :)
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    Assembly Square press release is out.

    But what's important for this thread could be the following line:
    Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Creator Expert Modular Building series 10243 Parisian Restaurant, 10246 Detective’s Office and 10251 Brick Bank.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    stevemack said:
    I was about to say, I've never seen it discounted at all, let alone 50% :)
    Amazon had it for $175.  Local Lego store had it for $175.  Free set giveaway earlier in the year.  Florida Disney Stores had it for $99.  Probably a slow selling set.  
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 889
    Ahhh dollars... sorry, UK here haha
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,059
    Huaojozu said:
    Assembly Square press release is out.

    But what's important for this thread could be the following line:
    Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Creator Expert Modular Building series 10243 Parisian Restaurant, 10246 Detective’s Office and 10251 Brick Bank.

    Yes I think the idea here is that the Pet Shop will retire....eventually...
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 335
    No mention on Palace Cinema either?
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 527
    edited October 2016
    mathew said:
    stevemack said:
    I was about to say, I've never seen it discounted at all, let alone 50% :)
    Amazon had it for $175.  Local Lego store had it for $175.  Free set giveaway earlier in the year.  Florida Disney Stores had it for $99.  Probably a slow selling set.  
    In the US, walmart.com has it at $175 on Rollback, target.com currently has it at $175, still $175 at amazon.com. Plus there were 500 bonus VIP points in July when you bought it, and free #70749 Enter the Serpent set back in November of 2015 with purchase (althought that might have been because #70749 was a slow seller). Also, it WAS $175 at barnesandnoble.com when they had it instock, now they are only available there through 3rd party sellers. I can't think of anywhere else that has it.

    Looks like the only place this thing is full price is at [email protected] and toysrus.com (although TRU will price match if you call their customer service line and do the order over the phone. Also, if you are lucky enough to find one of these instore they will price match there as well.

    Anyway, I also have the feeling this one is going to go soon, even though the Ninjago movie is on the horizon. I doubt the Temple of Airjitzu is going to be in the movie, they might not want new fans to be confused by the term "airjitzu" since "spinjitzu" is what the ninjas learned first. Who knows? They might be trying to clean house before the movie. 

    It seems like we were seeing the same thing back when #10228 Haunted House got blitzed out. Not to start a panic or anything. Mine will be here on Friday :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,331
    edited October 2016
    I hope people are not expecting #10255 Assembly Square to be out for 6 years. I'm thinking more of a Town Hall situation where it is out for about 2 years. People have been warned :-)
    FollowsCloselyCurvedRoadPlate
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    I disagree. This set could well be the death star of the modulars. It is expensive but it is also a fully realized street scene. No other buildings needed. I think it will sell very well, especially compared to the town hall (or what we have been led to believe about the town hall). 
    SumoLegocatwranglerpiratemania7Yodaliciousbuildalotkiki180703
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,059
    ^ I tend to agree with that - this really is all you need.  In itself is a great display piece, or an all encompassing play piece.  You can add, and certainly most will add other mods to it, but in itself works great.  The price certainly is higher than we have seen but as with all things LEGO it always goes up.  But the piece count is great!

    I remember when the Town Hall came out and I nearly lost my lunch over the $199.99 USD price point - hahahahahahhahahahahhaha oh the memories.....
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 211
    ^ I tend to agree with that - this really is all you need.  In itself is a great display piece, or an all encompassing play piece.  You can add, and certainly most will add other mods to it, but in itself works great.  The price certainly is higher than we have seen but as with all things LEGO it always goes up.  But the piece count is great!

    I remember when the Town Hall came out and I nearly lost my lunch over the $199.99 USD price point - hahahahahahhahahahahhaha oh the memories.....
    The Town Hall was $150--$155 for a long time on Walmart.com and Amazon.com, before the later half of 2014 exclusive discount ban.  I was still caught off-guard and bought most of mine at full retail.
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    dr who retiring soon --> 

  • josekaleljosekalel Rio Grande Valley, TexasMember Posts: 680
    Is #10243 Parisian Restaurant retiring or something? It's not in stock at Amazon. 
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    josekalel said:
    Is #10243 Parisian Restaurant retiring or something? It's not in stock at Amazon. 
    No way.  It goes in and out of stock at Amazon.  I'd be surprised if were not the best selling modular.
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,093
    mathew said:
    josekalel said:
    Is #10243 Parisian Restaurant retiring or something? It's not in stock at Amazon. 
    No way.  It goes in and out of stock at Amazon.  I'd be surprised if were not the best selling modular.
    That would not surprise me at all... Even my mother wants a PR! :-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,331
    pharmjod said:
    I disagree. This set could well be the death star of the modulars. It is expensive but it is also a fully realized street scene. No other buildings needed. I think it will sell very well, especially compared to the town hall (or what we have been led to believe about the town hall). 

    ^ I tend to agree with that - this really is all you need.  In itself is a great display piece, or an all encompassing play piece.  You can add, and certainly most will add other mods to it, but in itself works great.  The price certainly is higher than we have seen but as with all things LEGO it always goes up.  But the piece count is great!

    I remember when the Town Hall came out and I nearly lost my lunch over the $199.99 USD price point - hahahahahahhahahahahhaha oh the memories.....
    I agree, it is a great looking set. However, regardless of 'play value', 280 USD is 280 USD. When every other mod is much cheaper I'm not sure how many of these will really sell enough to justify a 6 year run, regardless of play value, piece count, etc.

    It may be a bit apples and oranges I know, but IMO #60097 has TONS of 'play value', but how many really sold for retailers at RRP that are now discounting them? (heck, even TRU has it down to 142 USD now, and other retailers have them as low as 117.99 USD as I write this). Assault on Hoth is a 'great display piece' with tons of 'play value', and it has the advantage of being Star Wars, but how well is that going to sell ultimately?

    I'm just saying 'lots of luck' to those that wait a while to buy it. I'm guessing most that agree it will be out 6 years are likely to also purchase it within the next year and not wait. I agree that the #10224 Town Hall is not the same type of play value, BUT it shows exceptions are made to the thought of 6 year production for every 'mod'. I see this set like the Town Hall, which is a 'special' mod with a large price point. Which means it may not adhere to the same level of production that a 'standard' mod will.

    Could it be out 6+ years? Sure, but I would not wait to buy one.
    catwrangler
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,059
    ^ Oh don't get me wrong, I'll be buying one as soon as I can on the 1st of January.  :)  With a second at some point I'm sure!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I think Assembly Square serves a couple different purposes.

    A) It serves itself as a whole "city". Instead of buying 2 modulars, you can have 3 buildings here. One item to display when you have limited space.

    B) It serves as a starting point for new modular collectors. I think this was the primary goal of LEGO's strategy with this set. This is the starting piece and from here, they would tack on some of the other existing sets.

    C) It still works for existing modular collectors. Cafe Corner is slightly redone but if you have all of these in a row, it's so far down the street, it doesn't really matter.

    All in all. A home run for LEGO here.
    lordzarakBumblepantsCircleK
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    After watching the designer video; I am even more convinced that Lego will never re-release the older Modulars.
    exciter1madejp86josekalelFollowsCloselySumoLegodougtsAmbroiseCircleKcatwrangler
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,701
    stevemack said:
    Ahhh dollars... sorry, UK here haha
    Previously 33% off at Smyths.
    DadBriking
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    $280 is < than $338 for two separate buildings with arguably more going on in the scene to justify $280. In that regard, it's a value purchase. We shall see, but I fully expect this set to be out for a good long time. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,331
    280 USD is OK, until you realize that you are paying for a modular and a half and then adding 40 USD on top of that.
    I get there will be those that buy it for various reasons (and it is a nice set, again Ill be getting it) but I'm guessing more casual fans will see the price as only 'more than a typical mod' and choose the cheaper ones (of which there is a good variety now) and likely wait. However, how many folks said they were waiting to buy the Town Hall to see if there would be a price drop, or succumbed to the idea that 'it will obviously be around as long as the other mods, so why hurry?' mentality. If it does not sell to what LEGO wants.... well we have seen what occurs with a mod when that happens.

    Again I understand it could be out for 6+ years, but I would not stake money on it.
    FollowsClosely
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    prevere said:
    Cafe Corner is slightly redone but if you have all of these in a row, it's so far down the street, it doesn't really matter.
    I don't think it is uncommon to be able to throw a rock and hit three coffee shops in high traffic areas.



    Pitfall69 said:
    After watching the designer video; I am even more convinced that Lego will never re-release the older Modulars.

    Agreed.  I also wouldn't be surprised if there are some re-hash nay-sayers that pop up to complain about the lack of originality by recycling features of GG, CC, GE, DO and the Winter Village.

    SprinkleOtterPitfall69stluxLyichirAanchirMattDawson
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    I remember standing on a corner in Seattle and clearly being able to see 3 Starbucks.  
    SumoLegokiki180703Pitfall69stluxAanchircatwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    edited October 2016
    pharmjod said:
    I remember standing on a corner in Seattle and clearly being able to see 3 Starbucks.  

    I know - I was trying to find a photo of it - but between my two exploding Note 7s and Flickr not quite backing everything up, I couldn't find it.  I want to say it was on Pike Street, but admittedly, I had no idea where I was and it was raining down and up and sideways.
    pharmjodkiki180703Pitfall69stluxcatwrangler
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^^^ Drinking hot coffee twice and then tanning? I'm sweating just thinking about it. 
    SprinkleOtterkiki180703SumoLegobandit778catwrangler
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,086
    I thought it was Pike Street too but maybe the concentration has thinned a bit since the hay-day. 


    SumoLego
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,226
    There used to be two Starbucks' kitty-corner to each other in Vancouver and a couple of restaurants on either side streets that served take out coffee (I can't be sure but one of them might have actually been a coffee place).  It's all changed since I've been in the UK though, I was slightly disappointed because I brought my boyfriend on our last trip to show him (he didn't believe me) and one of them has closed.  The other is nicely reno'ed now though.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited October 2016
    prevere said:
    I think Assembly Square serves a couple different purposes.

    A) It serves itself as a whole "city". Instead of buying 2 modulars, you can have 3 buildings here. One item to display when you have limited space.

    B) It serves as a starting point for new modular collectors. I think this was the primary goal of LEGO's strategy with this set. This is the starting piece and from here, they would tack on some of the other existing sets.

    C) It still works for existing modular collectors. Cafe Corner is slightly redone but if you have all of these in a row, it's so far down the street, it doesn't really matter.

    All in all. A home run for LEGO here. 
    Pitfall69 said:
    After watching the designer video; I am even more convinced that Lego will never re-release the older Modulars.

    Yep. I think Assembly Square is as close as we are going to get to a re-released Cafe Corner. It's brilliant in that the obvious nod is there - a way of celebrating the one that started it all on the 10th anniversary. At the same time it provides a way for new collectors to have a "something like cafe corner" in their layout as well. I think this just shows what many have said over and over again. If there was ever another CC it would look more like the cafe in Assembly Square and nothing at all like the original. 

    I completely agree with @prevere about this being a way to attract collectors who have limited space and/or no interest in a full blocks as well. That describes me for the most part. I have no interest in owning all the mods. I don't even like the ones prior to PR (GG being the exception). I can see myself pairing Assembly Square with DO and BB and then calling it a day honestly. It's all the street I will ever want or need. 
    SumoLegoPitfall69catwranglerjuggles7thedingman5
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    @CircleK... until the next one is released....
    CircleKpharmjodPitfall69stlux
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,861
    CircleK said:
    SumoLego said:
    @CircleK... until the next one is released....
    Honey?! Is that you?!

    Sorry, you sounded a lot like my wife there... But yeah you're right. Who am I kidding? Honestly, everything I post on this forum is mostly bullshit. 
    It's a noble thought.  I told myself I wouldn't buy the old modulars until I bought them all...
    CircleKcatwranglerstluxmonstblitzTheMaker37MattDawsonkiki180703
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