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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    3stackshs said:
    I found about 12 #75048 @ RRP.....  Think I should grab some?
    Yes.  I'll buy two from you
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    monstblitz said:

    More and more parents buying Lego for children are aware of the value Lego has and the fact that it is a toy that can appreciate in value.
    As a toy, it doesn't. Any real value it has there is in its indestructibility, but the appreciating value of sets is something that generally goes out the window once it has been used as a toy by most children. There are exceptions, and it can be refurbished, but it's a totally different scenario.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    TigerMoth said:
    Any real value it has there is in its indestructibility
    It is not just the indestructibility of the bricks, but also the infinite possibilities that can be created even if parts are lost. Of course, sets will have better value than bulk unsorted bricks, but there is still value in the bricks as bricks. Whereas if you lose key parts of other toys, they can be essentially worthless. The same with Meccano, K'nex and other similar toys, they can just be added to an existing bucket of parts, whereas if you have a toy train missing its wheels or a motor, then often it is too much hassle to repair and so the value is much lower.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    CCC said:

    It is not just the indestructibility of the bricks, but also the infinite possibilities that can be created even if parts are lost. Of course, sets will have better value than bulk unsorted bricks, but there is still value in the bricks as bricks.
    What I meant was that it's the longevity of the item and it's re-usability that are important, rather than being a "high-value LEGO set", which isn't how it would generally be regarded unless it had also passed through the hands of someone who appeared to be an "expert restorer".
    The same with Meccano, K'nex and other similar toys, they can just be added to an existing bucket of parts
    Indeed. And also with non-premium brands. These things all tend to retain their value, not appreciate, which is the province of sets that aren't used as toys.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    Yeah, the only used sets that appreciate to any great extent tend not to be child owned. It happens occasionally if kids get bought high end sets that they look after, but not most smaller sets. Especially if they get mixed up and parts lost.

    Although I don't think that many parents think about resale value when buying Lego for their kids. If they did, they'd be buying multiples and not giving them to the kids.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    I cringed the first time my son launched the newest War Machine minifig into the wall. But then I thought "that one is his and he can do what he wants with it." I'm not the average parent in that I know the value (however we want to define that) of his Lego, but at the same time realize it's just that...his Lego. If I don't care what he does with it, I can't imagine most parents that have no idea to the potential of it to appreciate care one bit.
    LostInTranslation
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    CCC said:
    If they did, they'd be buying multiples and not giving them to the kids.
    Funny how this thread comes back full circle every now and then.
    SumoLego
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    CCC said:
    If they did, they'd be buying multiples and not giving them to the kids.
    Funny how this thread comes back full circle every now and then.
    So does anyone have any predictions on what sets are retiring and their likely value ... :-)
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    New Death Star. 2023. 1-2% above retail. 
    bandit778madforLEGOSumoLegotecjambrownbricks720
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited August 2016

    dougts said:
    Aanchir said:

    Cancelling promotions because resellers might benefit from them would be silly, because resellers who would profit from those promotions, whether helpful or hurtful in the grand scheme of things, are just a drop in the bucket compared to the number of potential customers LEGO expects to reach with those promotions.
    this is a great point.  I remember when LEGO discontinued the discounts on exclusives here in the US.  At the time, they made a lot of noise about how it was a policy that was being enacted to cut down on reselling and its harmful effects. Truth be told, I think it more likely they realized that they had no reason to offer discounts - they could sell the products at full price. The "evil resellers" made a convenient scapegoat for them to justify and deflect ire to normal customers about their new policy.
    According to whispers there was some sort of legal reason why LEGO could no longer offer exclusives at discount. Not sure why, but I'm guessing it had more to do with companies discounting many of them for great prices.

    I think the only thing resellers do is help folks get back into LEGO by making sets available that LEGO has no further intention of making again.


    CCC said:
    CCC said:
    If they did, they'd be buying multiples and not giving them to the kids.
    Funny how this thread comes back full circle every now and then.
    So does anyone have any predictions on what sets are retiring and their likely value ... :-)

    At this point, who knows what LEGO will do anymore with their end of line/retirement schedules. Im not minding too much though because right now I cannot really afford much LEGO and if they want to make some of these sets last longer then by all means...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    The discounts now-a-days are in the form of Fountains and London Buses.




    AanchirFarmer_John
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    dougts said:
    Aanchir said:

    Cancelling promotions because resellers might benefit from them would be silly, because resellers who would profit from those promotions, whether helpful or hurtful in the grand scheme of things, are just a drop in the bucket compared to the number of potential customers LEGO expects to reach with those promotions.
    this is a great point.  I remember when LEGO discontinued the discounts on exclusives here in the US.  At the time, they made a lot of noise about how it was a policy that was being enacted to cut down on reselling and its harmful effects. Truth be told, I think it more likely they realized that they had no reason to offer discounts - they could sell the products at full price. The "evil resellers" made a convenient scapegoat for them to justify and deflect ire to normal customers about their new policy.
    According to whispers there was some sort of legal reason why LEGO could no longer offer exclusives at discount. Not sure why, but I'm guessing it had more to do with companies discounting many of them for great prices.

    Well of course they can discount their products.  What (I'm surmising) the "legal" issue was is this: LEGO wanted to prevent retailers (Amazon,Wal-Mart, Target, Toys R Us, etc.) from being able to sell the D2C exclusive products at a price less than RRP. The only way they could "legally" do this
    madforLEGO
  • masterX244masterX244 GermanyMember Posts: 512
    It reminds me of the situation with supermarkets and books - I'd guess that a lot of people rarely, if ever, pay full price for a paperback...
    not possible in germany :P
    books and newspapers got a fixed price on them
    catwrangler
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    It reminds me of the situation with supermarkets and books - I'd guess that a lot of people rarely, if ever, pay full price for a paperback...
    not possible in germany :P
    books and newspapers got a fixed price on them
    Very possible in Germany.

    A large store simply has to get the publisher to produce a "special edition" with a different cover and perhaps something like an introduction or synopsis - and a totally different price.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    ^ Let's slap a UCS Badge on it, and discount away!
    pharmjodPitfall69
  • Scott1Scott1 United StatesMember Posts: 48
    edited August 2016
    There was >40 Series 1 & 2 Speedorz (mostly the gorilla ones) still lying about all at least 50% off at my local K-Mart. They're gone now; I'm just wondering if I dodged a bullet or passed up a good deal.  
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 919
    Scott1 said:
    There was >40 Series 1 & 2 Speedorz (mostly the gorilla ones) still lying about all at least 50% off at my local K-Mart. They're gone now; I'm just wondering if I dodged a bullet or passed up a good deal.  
    My discounted Speedorz sets were mainly bought for parts, so definitely a good deal. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    Scott1 said:
    There was >40 Series 1 & 2 Speedorz (mostly the gorilla ones) still lying about all at least 50% off at my local K-Mart. They're gone now; I'm just wondering if I dodged a bullet or passed up a good deal.  
    The Gorzan set is pretty good for parts (I know as I bought 85 of them, in two batches) and the Gorilla minifig is an easy sell off at about $2 now.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    Has this thread ever gone a week without a post?  Was the Death Star's resurrection the proton torpedo into its exhaust port?
    FollowsCloselycatwranglerpharmjod
  • TheCableGuyTheCableGuy Member Posts: 115

    If this is to be the proton torpedo in the exhaust port then it was one that was designed, built and marketed by Lego and then sold by Lepin.

    I think it was the wise man Pte. Hudson who once said "Game over, Game over man"

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I'm really surprised the fairground mixer is still available. But then again, so is the Pet Shop. Fall seems to be the time a lot of sets EOL. It should be interesting over the next few months.
    BrickDancermadforLEGOBumblepants
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,159
    I'm not so sure the Fairgrounds Mixer will go EOL. 

    They just released an amusement park subtheme of Friends. While maybe a bit of a stretch compared to the Ferris Wheel coming out last year, I could see that possibly sparking some more sales of the Mixer. I'd actually be interested in knowing if the Ferris Wheel sparked some more sales of the Fairgrounds Mixer or not. It's certainly possible.

    I can't honestly decide if I want it or not. It looks like a really fun build and set, but at the same time I've never felt it was quite worth the price either. Although with some of the sets getting released recently with their price points, it's starting to make the Fairgrounds Mixer look like a better and better value.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    edited August 2016
    Part of me is a little happy that all these sets have stayed active (old Modulars, Santa, Speed Champions wave 1, Scooby, Fairground, JW, Dimensions wave 1, etc). It lets more kids get the sets, and it adds a little bit of a pause for non-Lego resellers. I'm happy to hold stuff a little bit longer - I'll probably open half of my stash anyways.
    SumoLegoBumblepants
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    I get the sense there was a pretty big ramp-up in production over the last 5 years, and that level of year-to-year innovation may be taxing Lego's resources.

    The pressure to produce one annual set for many themes that AFOLs enjoy, in addition to new themes and multi-set themes - I would expect a fall-off in intellectual quality.

    Perhaps sets staying around longer is a way to combat that natural fatigue.  I'd rather have one quality set every two years than yearly sets that don't impress.

    (Plus, I'm sure there are 2/3 new themes that are already in production that we are not aware of.  Those tap the same resources.)
    dougtsprevereericbcatwranglerLegogram
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    I'm not so sure the Fairgrounds Mixer will go EOL. 

    They just released an amusement park subtheme of Friends. While maybe a bit of a stretch compared to the Ferris Wheel coming out last year, I could see that possibly sparking some more sales of the Mixer. I'd actually be interested in knowing if the Ferris Wheel sparked some more sales of the Fairgrounds Mixer or not. It's certainly possible.

    I can't honestly decide if I want it or not. It looks like a really fun build and set, but at the same time I've never felt it was quite worth the price either. Although with some of the sets getting released recently with their price points, it's starting to make the Fairgrounds Mixer look like a better and better value.

    I would be surprised (well as surprised as one can be with LEGO's decisions lately) if the Mixer is still produced through this year. It is a nice set I guess, but again a chunk of it sits on the sideline while the rest is the main set. Plus at 149.99 USD one has to wonder how many are really being sold?
    prevere said:
    Part of me is a little happy that all these sets have stayed active (old Modulars, Santa, Speed Champions wave 1, Scooby, Fairground, JW, Dimensions wave 1, etc). It lets more kids get the sets, and it adds a little bit of a pause for non-Lego resellers. I'm happy to hold stuff a little bit longer - I'll probably open half of my stash anyways.
    Yeah, I have to admit that, with my recent money restrictions, LEGO's insistence not to retire sets quickly is a lot more beneficial to ensure I can get some sets later that I really want but will need save for (like the GB HQ).
    Farmer_JohnYodaliciousSumoLego
  • SamJSamJ West Yorkshire, UK Member Posts: 118
    This might be a stupid question but is there a reason Santa's workshop is available in the US but not in the UK? It was a set I was hoping to pick up before Christmas 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Yeah, I have to admit that, with my recent money restrictions, LEGO's insistence not to retire sets quickly is a lot more beneficial to ensure I can get some sets later that I really want but will need save for (like the GB HQ).
    Yeah...I've been procrastinating on picking up the GB HQ. I'm not a huge fan of GB (at least enough to spend a wad of money on), but that building is really sweet!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited August 2016
    SamJ said:
    This might be a stupid question but is there a reason Santa's workshop is available in the US but not in the UK? It was a set I was hoping to pick up before Christmas 
    My guess is that The US still has existing stocks of the set, whereas UK may not and they have not made more in preparation for the holidays this year yet, if it will be made for another season.
    SamJ
  • nuttamastabuildanuttamastabuilda USAMember Posts: 55
    Just got the Fall 2016 catalog in the mail.  Sydney Opera House, Pet Shop and Palace Cinema still there. 
    SumoLego
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,302
    SamJ said:
    This might be a stupid question but is there a reason Santa's workshop is available in the US but not in the UK? It was a set I was hoping to pick up before Christmas 

    This is normal, in the UK these sets tend to be seasonal but in the US tend to be available year round
    SamJ
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Just got the Fall 2016 catalog in the mail.  Sydney Opera House, Pet Shop and Palace Cinema still there. 
    Lego has definitely been known to EOL sets that were recently advertised in their catalog. A few major examples include:

    • Town Hall #10224 was in Fall 2014 Catalog and EOL'd on October 4, 2014
    • Arkham Asylum Breakout #10937 was in Late Holiday 2014 Catalog and was EOL'd December 3, 2014
    • UCS Tumbler #76023 was in the Fall 2015 Catalog and EOL'd on January 5, 2016
    If you want a set that's been out awhile, get it now and you won't have to insult resellers when it's gone. ;-)

    SumoLegoPitfall69stluxmadforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    ^ Funny, I got stuck myself on two out of three.  Thanks for reminding me...
    Farmer_JohnSprinkleOtterPitfall69Legogram
  • DontcopythatfloppyDontcopythatfloppy 'MuricaMember Posts: 43
    I don't know if anybody's said this yet, but if I were a reseller I'd be working my butt off to store up as many sealed Fun in the Parks as possible before it's too late.
    catwrangler
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Funny, I got stuck myself on two out of three.  Thanks for reminding me...
    I think I know one of the sets you missed... ;-)
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Funny, I got stuck myself on two out of three.  Thanks for reminding me...
    I think I know one of the sets you missed... ;-)
    Nothing a few Ferris Wheels couldn't cure...
    SprinkleOtterFarmer_John
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    SumoLego said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^Until they release "Fun in the Playground", "Fun in the Open Field" and "Fun in the Park Two Blocks Down From the Park" ;) 
    "Fun on Hoth"...
    Nobody is having fun on Hoth unless people are riding Assault on Hoth down the stairs while they are drinking. 
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtterstluxbandit778monstblitzcatwranglerVorpalRyuRainstorm26iso3200
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    Dax had plenty of... oh wait, nevermind.
    Pitfall69GothamConstructionCobandit778VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Actually Dak is starting for the Cowboys...Well...He won't be having much fun soon enough ;)
    SumoLegobandit778VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    dak.jpg 40.8K
    SprinkleOtterSumoLegobandit778starwars4everDontcopythatfloppyVorpalRyu
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    I don't know what any of those memes mean, but the fact that someone cared enough to make memes about two people's names weren't even in the movies is funny enough for a like...
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    I don't know if anybody's said this yet, but if I were a reseller I'd be working my butt off to store up as many sealed Fun in the Parks as possible before it's too late.
    That set will not be worth investing in unless you get it >30% off. The new pieces will be available in dozens of sets for years to come.
    pharmjodPitfall69exciter1
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I don't know what any of those memes mean, but the fact that someone cared enough to make memes about two people's names weren't even in the movies is funny enough for a like...
    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Wes_Janson

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Dak_Ralter

    "Dax" was certainly a typo from @SumoLego , but I know whst he meant  ;)
    bandit778SprinkleOtterpharmjodSumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    I don't know if anybody's said this yet, but if I were a reseller I'd be working my butt off to store up as many sealed Fun in the Parks as possible before it's too late.
    Possibly, but this set is so high priced ($40.00) that I'm not sure many folks would pay 50.00+ for it. Granted, it does have 15 minifigs in it which makes the price $2.66 per fig which is a better way to look at it than 25 cents per piece.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    A lot of the minifig parts for that set are available quite cheaply and being generic minifigs means their price is unlikely to rocket. And an alternative baby is in the current CMF series. So that leaves the wheelchair.

  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    Pitfall69 said:
    I don't know what any of those memes mean, but the fact that someone cared enough to make memes about two people's names weren't even in the movies is funny enough for a like...
    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Wes_Janson

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Dak_Ralter

    "Dax" was certainly a typo from @SumoLego , but I know whst he meant  ;)
    lol. I know who they are, I just never thought they were important characters. Though the part where Wes tried to flirt with Jaina Solo was kind of funny, though...
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