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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    I went ahead an purchased the Beetle a couple days ago so I could get a free mini London bus. Sad to say, it was the cheapest set on my want list I could purchase and still get the bus.

    Personally, I'm holding out for at least double VIP points and maybe a decent free Christmas set before I purchase any of the big sets. I figure if I get enough double VIP points on several expensive sets, I may be able to pick one expensive set for less than $100 (maybe even free).
    Similar here. The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany, and for all the big sets I wait for either douple VIP points, Black Friday or special pre-Christmas offers.
    stlux
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Lego_Star said:
    I have a prediction or two:

    (1) Someone is going to have their pick of all these prizes (and possibly more) when their £1 winning raffle ticket is picked out first on Friday night.

    (2) And on Saturday night, and very likely Sunday too, all the remaining prizes will be drawn and won. 63 more and still more are being added.

    The question is, will it be you?

    Ticket sales must close August 4th. Check it out. Support @Legoboy walk 100km. Be part of the awesome brickset community saying "up yours" to cancer.

    Don't like my post, but please click here instead: http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/24121/3-days-to-go-charity-fundraiser/p1


    A rare thing for me but I'm "reselling" (read reposting) this awesome montage of the prizes donated so far, created by @TheOneVeyronian. Stay Calm, Don't Like, but buy some raffle tickets instead. :o)

    http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/24121/3-days-to-go-charity-fundraiser/p1

    Bump
    stlux
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    AustinPowers said:

    The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany
    I imagine that's being kept for the opening of the Leicester Square store, and rather than make it country-specific, it's just being held back on the basis of their normal sales regions.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany, and for all the big sets I wait for either douple VIP points, Black Friday or special pre-Christmas offers.

    Exactly the same here ... I have a lot of big sets to catch up on and usually grab the small sets for the freebies I want. Does anyone know when the next double points action is? October? Do we get Black Friday offers here in Germany?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited August 2016
    Bump
    Seriously?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and [email protected], according to thebrickfan.com
    Farmer_JohnCircleK
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Bump
    Seriously?
    Sorry, have i upset you ?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I don't think it's necessary to advertise it over and over in this thread.  If anything, please create a new thread like all the other special things.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and [email protected], according to thebrickfan.com
    If that's the case, then I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The") or the new Technic Excavator. They are the top two Lego sets on my list at this point. The October double VIP events typically also have a free Christmas set with them and my wife loves those. I'll probably try to load up then.
    TheLoneTensor
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2016
    .....I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The").....
    = = = = = = =
    Excellent choice.  I have the Big Ben (as you can see, with the 'the').  I've heard the one without the 'the' is the better set.

    Sorry, I couldn't help myself. :-)  The 'the' posts were some of the most entertaining in this whole 616 page thread.
    Farmer_John
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    They should have released a Parliament along with Big Ben and then we could have packaged them as the Clark W. Griswold special....
    Dtrimpi87MAGNINOMINISUMBRAGothamConstructionCoAllBrick
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and [email protected], according to thebrickfan.com
    If that's the case, then I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The") or the new Technic Excavator. They are the top two Lego sets on my list at this point. The October double VIP events typically also have a free Christmas set with them and my wife loves those. I'll probably try to load up then.
    Agreed, the holiday set is usually ~$20 in value, so no rush here.

    And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237

    And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?
    My guess would be that since Technic is a solid but narrow sub-brand TLG is hoping to expand revenue from that area. There's got to be a limit on how many Super Heroes sub-brands there can be without them simply canibalising each other. But I don't see any advertising campaigns in support of Technic so what do I know?
    catwranglerstlux
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?
    Technic has always been popular in our house...something about all the gears and moving parts. TLG has released a lot of cranes, trucks, and the like over the years, but the Excavator and the Class Tractor just look like awesome builds. The Porsche also looks pretty good, but it's not as high up on my priority list (mainly due to cost).

    From a resale standpoint, I can see the Porsche and the Excavator doing really well too (unless they're out forever).

    I just keep imagining having two Excavators and building one of these:

    catwranglerstlux
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    wagnerml2 said:
    They should have released a Parliament along with Big Ben and then we could have packaged them as the Clark W. Griswold special....
    You'll also be needing a roundabout!
    AllBrick
  • willobee498willobee498 CanadalandMember Posts: 349
    Double VIP is live, at least in Canada. Goodbye, all my money.
    sklambSeanTheCollector
  • Dtrimpi87Dtrimpi87 San DiegoMember Posts: 56
    Double VIP is live, at least in Canada. Goodbye, all my money.
    It is also live for the U.S.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Was hitting Wal MArt clearances today and came upon two #70317 The Fotrex at 50% 0ff ($49).  I passed on them because I really don't know whether Nexo Knights is the next Ninjago or next Chima.  Chima is the only line I've ever bought sets at 50% off and lost money.  Does anyone have any thoughts?  Should I go back and get them?
  • TresillianTresillian Member Posts: 60
    I think they are a bit of a loser, 
  • catwranglercatwrangler Northern IrelandMember Posts: 1,814
    edited August 2016
    I would say that if you do decide to buy them, your resale market will be parents of kids who like Nexo Knights - most AFOLs who are very into the theme will probably have bought it already (except me, but I'm in the wrong country to help you out there!). Also, with the new Jestro's Volcanic Lair (£99.99 to the Fortrex's RRP of £79.99 here) one of Lego's "predicted" hot toys for Christmas, I would guess that various shops will be discounting the Fortrex in the run-up to the holidays to make way for the Volcanic Lair and other 2nd-wave Nexo Knights stuff. So if you're going to buy and flip it, do it soon...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,022
    In the UK it seems to be doing fairly well. A lot of my friends kids have the Fortrex - I wonder if the Volcano Lair is predicted to do well as the one that has been pushed so far is the Fortrex.
    catwrangler
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,947
    I would consider the fortrex for the dark blue bricks for myself. Remember the China lion temple still did pretty well in spite of the rest of the theme
    wagnerml2catwranglerFarmer_John
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    I doubled my money on that lion temple quickly. Didn't buy any other chima. It just seemed awesome by the eyeball test.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The Fortrex does look like an interesting set for the parts alone. I think one of my kids might get into it as well...at 50% off.
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    I'd buy fortrex at 50% off no hesitation. For personal use anyway. I'd be tempted to buy a couple just to see what they do.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 695
    edited August 2016
    Walmart is probably the only online store (other than lego.com) that I can count on to know when a product is done. If it is not on there, it's gone for good. This was up today on their website:


    Sydney Opera House is an exclusive right? Since I've come out of my dark age, this is the first time I've seen an exclusive clearanced like this in Canada. I'm going to take this to mean the Opera House is finally on its way out. Don't know if others have seen something similiar.
    pharmjodSumoLegoFarmer_John
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,183
    ^ I made the mistake of presuming it was done earlier this year when they went out of stock at my local Retail Store.

    @Pitfall69 set me straight.  Considering this set is akin to the Tower Bridge, this may just be Wal-Mart clearing out an excess of stock.  

    And it is an 'exclusive', so who knows how long it will stay available through [email protected]
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 695
    Even if Opera House isn't gone, it gives me hope that we could see pricing like this on other exclusives at Walmart. No exclusives or UCS ever go on sale or get clearanced-priced here. Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. The best deal we get is Double VIP points on these things.
    SumoLego
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Walmart has the Tie  Fighter #75095 down to $159.97 right now, too....they show five left on-line
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited August 2016
    Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

    Brickset "Notes" field for #76060 listing says "[US] Target Exclusive".

    That being said, I don't recall the retail exclusive sets being truly exclusive to those stores.  They can usually be found at the LEGO Stores.  The only set I can think of that was truly exclusive was the Toys R Us Truck set #7848.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    sidersdd said:
    Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

    Brickset "Notes" field for #76060 listing says "[US] Target Exclusive".

    That being said, I don't recall the retail exclusive sets being truly exclusive to those stores.  They can usually be found at the LEGO Stores.  The only set I can think of that was truly exclusive was the Toys R Us Truck set #7848.
    Yeah I thought that too, unless LEGO has changed their policies.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited August 2016
    With the number of sets available now it's possible that not all are being stocked in the stores.  Someone earlier mentioned Ra's al Ghul #76056 not being stocked at LEGO Stores as well.  Not sure if that's Wal-mart exclusive or not.  Brickset Availability field just says "Retail - limited". 

    Tanker Truck Takedown #76067 is supposedly a TRU exclusive, but I think I've seen that at the LEGO Store.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    pharmjod said:
    That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.
    Or it could go the #9476 route.
    pharmjod
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,183
    edited August 2016
    pharmjod said:
    That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.
    Except (not to be technical), but I don't think the Zombies was available at the Lego Retail Store, and Raptor Escape was a Wal-Mart exclusive that was available at the Lego Retail Store.

    (Speaking of which - if someone has the two raptors from that set - I'd be happy to trade!)

    My understanding through the retail channel is that every set available in the catalog at the major retailers is available at the Lego Retail Store.  This doesn't apply to seasonal/exclusive sets like the TRU Bricktober sets, or the Target Cube.  So take that for what it is worth.  Addtionally, the Retail Stores generally do not carry the full catalog of polybags, as they are not available through [email protected]  And rarely do Target, TRU and Wal-Mart carry similar polybags in the same region/market.
    pharmjodstlux
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    sidersdd said:
    With the number of sets available now it's possible that not all are being stocked in the stores.  Someone earlier mentioned Ra's al Ghul #76056 not being stocked at LEGO Stores as well.  Not sure if that's Wal-mart exclusive or not.  Brickset Availability field just says "Retail - limited". 

    Tanker Truck Takedown #76067 is supposedly a TRU exclusive, but I think I've seen that at the LEGO Store.
    I was surprised to see that Ra's #76056 was not available anywhere but Wally & [email protected] from what I can see. It has shown available for pickup today at my Wally. Stopped by. Nothing. Went home and ordered it ... still processing. Ordered from another Wally, and that one is ready for pickup.

    Seems like a strange way to offer a $30 Super Heroes set.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    I have very low expectations for the set regardless. It will be heavily horded.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,183
    ^ Hoarded like a horde of zombies or a pack of escaped raptors...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,022
    SumoLego said:
    pharmjod said:
    That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.
    Except (not to be technical), but I don't think the Zombies was available at the Lego Retail Store, and Raptor Escape was a Wal-Mart exclusive that was available at the Lego Retail Store.

    (Speaking of which - if someone has the two raptors from that set - I'd be happy to trade!)

    My understanding through the retail channel is that every set available in the catalog at the major retailers is available at the Lego Retail Store.  This doesn't apply to seasonal/exclusive sets like the TRU Bricktober sets, or the Target Cube.  So take that for what it is worth.  Addtionally, the Retail Stores generally do not carry the full catalog of polybags, as they are not available through [email protected]  And rarely do Target, TRU and Wal-Mart carry similar polybags in the same region/market.
    The Zombies was available through Lego retail stores in the US. I bought one in Atlanta / Lawrenceville.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,183
    ^ @CCC - That makes sense and would be in-line with the typical distribution.  

    I appreciate the clarification!
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I think it was confirmed that #76060 will be the only Dr. Strange set and logically the only way to get the Dr. Strange minis.  That combined with the price point and Retail exclusivity make it a huge hoarder possibility.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,183
    ^ See Ant-Man.
  • ScatterbugScatterbug WalesMember Posts: 109
    Rather, don't compare to Ant-Man in terms of post EOL performance.
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,970
    @Scatterbug
    That depends on where you are in the world, from reading through this thread, #76039 seemed to sell out a lot quicker in the U.S. than it did in the U.K.
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    i m selling fortrex's and misfortune keep's in my "local ebay-like fleamarket webpage"

    THEY ARE SELLING LIKE HOTCAKES
    fortrex for 70€
    misfortune keep for 75€

    i lost overview. must have pushed like 20 the last 14 days!
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,022
    ^ That's 30% or so off the Fortrex, isn't it? No wonder they are selling at 30% below RRP.
    Pitfall69kiki180703
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,154
    While I was at my nearest Lego store this past weekend, I overheard one of the employees telling a customer to go look for a specific set at one of the big three retailers (Target, Walmart, TRU) because it was exclusive to them and they didn't have any copies. I don't remember which set/store as I only overheard it, but take it for what you will.

    I know retailer exclusives have been available at Lego stores in the past. I'd be surprised if that fact has changed.
  • ScatterbugScatterbug WalesMember Posts: 109
    bandit778 said:
    @Scatterbug
    That depends on where you are in the world, from reading through this thread, #76039 seemed to sell out a lot quicker in the U.S. than it did in the U.K.
    What I meant was everybody has Ant-Man performance in the back of their minds when looking at this set. Which means greater hoarding and lower returns come EOL.
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    yea

    murica an super heroes!

    we in europe dont like EDM or huge ass festivals.

    we like the DUB and the stoner rock!

    jungle, psy, goa, tek is also a thing here!
    aaaand DnB for the london fabric kiddies!

    does america even have a soundsystem scene like europe does ?   munich alone has 13 DUB-ONLY soundsystems! not counting soca/dancehall crap!
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