Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

tecjam

AustinPowers said:

The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany, and for all the big sets I wait for either douple VIP points, Black Friday or special pre-Christmas offers.

Exactly the same here ... I have a lot of big sets to catch up on and usually grab the small sets for the freebies I want. Does anyone know when the next double points action is? October? Do we get Black Friday offers here in Germany?

TheLoneTensor

Brickaholic said:

Bump

Seriously?

madforLEGO

Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and S@H, according to thebrickfan.com

Brickaholic

TheLoneTensor said:

Brickaholic said:

Bump

Seriously?

Sorry, have i upset you ?

TheLoneTensor

I don't think it's necessary to advertise it over and over in this thread.  If anything, please create a new thread like all the other special things.

Farmer_John

madforLEGO said:

Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and S@H, according to thebrickfan.com

If that's the case, then I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The") or the new Technic Excavator. They are the top two Lego sets on my list at this point. The October double VIP events typically also have a free Christmas set with them and my wife loves those. I'll probably try to load up then.

cloaked7

.....I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The").....
= = = = = = =
Excellent choice.  I have the Big Ben (as you can see, with the 'the').  I've heard the one without the 'the' is the better set.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. :-)  The 'the' posts were some of the most entertaining in this whole 616 page thread.

wagnerml2

They should have released a Parliament along with Big Ben and then we could have packaged them as the Clark W. Griswold special....

TheLoneTensor

Farmer_John said:

madforLEGO said:

Rumor has it there is a double point VIP event this weekend (aug 5-7) for LEGO stores and S@H, according to thebrickfan.com

If that's the case, then I'll have to grab either Big Ben (without the "The") or the new Technic Excavator. They are the top two Lego sets on my list at this point. The October double VIP events typically also have a free Christmas set with them and my wife loves those. I'll probably try to load up then.

Agreed, the holiday set is usually ~$20 in value, so no rush here.

And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?

mountebank

TheLoneTensor said:

And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?

My guess would be that since Technic is a solid but narrow sub-brand TLG is hoping to expand revenue from that area. There's got to be a limit on how many Super Heroes sub-brands there can be without them simply canibalising each other. But I don't see any advertising campaigns in support of Technic so what do I know?

Farmer_John

TheLoneTensor said:

And speaking of, what's with Technic having 3 flagship-level items in one year?

Technic has always been popular in our house...something about all the gears and moving parts. TLG has released a lot of cranes, trucks, and the like over the years, but the Excavator and the Class Tractor just look like awesome builds. The Porsche also looks pretty good, but it's not as high up on my priority list (mainly due to cost).

From a resale standpoint, I can see the Porsche and the Excavator doing really well too (unless they're out forever).

I just keep imagining having two Excavators and building one of these:

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

wagnerml2 said:

They should have released a Parliament along with Big Ben and then we could have packaged them as the Clark W. Griswold special....

You'll also be needing a roundabout!

willobee498

Double VIP is live, at least in Canada. Goodbye, all my money.

Dtrimpi87

willobee498 said:

Double VIP is live, at least in Canada. Goodbye, all my money.

It is also live for the U.S.

wagnerml2

Was hitting Wal MArt clearances today and came upon two #70317 The Fotrex at 50% 0ff ($49).  I passed on them because I really don't know whether Nexo Knights is the next Ninjago or next Chima.  Chima is the only line I've ever bought sets at 50% off and lost money.  Does anyone have any thoughts?  Should I go back and get them?

Tresillian

I think they are a bit of a loser, 

catwrangler

I would say that if you do decide to buy them, your resale market will be parents of kids who like Nexo Knights - most AFOLs who are very into the theme will probably have bought it already (except me, but I'm in the wrong country to help you out there!). Also, with the new Jestro's Volcanic Lair (£99.99 to the Fortrex's RRP of £79.99 here) one of Lego's "predicted" hot toys for Christmas, I would guess that various shops will be discounting the Fortrex in the run-up to the holidays to make way for the Volcanic Lair and other 2nd-wave Nexo Knights stuff. So if you're going to buy and flip it, do it soon...

CCC

In the UK it seems to be doing fairly well. A lot of my friends kids have the Fortrex - I wonder if the Volcano Lair is predicted to do well as the one that has been pushed so far is the Fortrex.

Bumblepants

I would consider the fortrex for the dark blue bricks for myself. Remember the China lion temple still did pretty well in spite of the rest of the theme

prevere

I doubled my money on that lion temple quickly. Didn't buy any other chima. It just seemed awesome by the eyeball test.

Farmer_John

The Fortrex does look like an interesting set for the parts alone. I think one of my kids might get into it as well...at 50% off.

pharmjod

I'd buy fortrex at 50% off no hesitation. For personal use anyway. I'd be tempted to buy a couple just to see what they do.

flord

Walmart is probably the only online store (other than lego.com) that I can count on to know when a product is done. If it is not on there, it's gone for good. This was up today on their website:


Sydney Opera House is an exclusive right? Since I've come out of my dark age, this is the first time I've seen an exclusive clearanced like this in Canada. I'm going to take this to mean the Opera House is finally on its way out. Don't know if others have seen something similiar.

SumoLego

^ I made the mistake of presuming it was done earlier this year when they went out of stock at my local Retail Store.

@Pitfall69 set me straight.  Considering this set is akin to the Tower Bridge, this may just be Wal-Mart clearing out an excess of stock.  

And it is an 'exclusive', so who knows how long it will stay available through S@H.

flord

Even if Opera House isn't gone, it gives me hope that we could see pricing like this on other exclusives at Walmart. No exclusives or UCS ever go on sale or get clearanced-priced here. Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. The best deal we get is Double VIP points on these things.

ryjay

Walmart has the Tie  Fighter #75095 down to $159.97 right now, too....they show five left on-line

madforLEGO

Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

sidersdd

madforLEGO said:

Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

Brickset "Notes" field for #76060 listing says "[US] Target Exclusive".

That being said, I don't recall the retail exclusive sets being truly exclusive to those stores.  They can usually be found at the LEGO Stores.  The only set I can think of that was truly exclusive was the Toys R Us Truck set #7848.

pharmjod

That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.

madforLEGO

sidersdd said:

madforLEGO said:

Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

Brickset "Notes" field for #76060 listing says "[US] Target Exclusive".

That being said, I don't recall the retail exclusive sets being truly exclusive to those stores.  They can usually be found at the LEGO Stores.  The only set I can think of that was truly exclusive was the Toys R Us Truck set #7848.

Yeah I thought that too, unless LEGO has changed their policies.

sidersdd

With the number of sets available now it's possible that not all are being stocked in the stores.  Someone earlier mentioned Ra's al Ghul #76056 not being stocked at LEGO Stores as well.  Not sure if that's Wal-mart exclusive or not.  Brickset Availability field just says "Retail - limited". 

Tanker Truck Takedown #76067 is supposedly a TRU exclusive, but I think I've seen that at the LEGO Store.

TheLoneTensor

pharmjod said:

That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.

Or it could go the #9476 route.

SumoLego

pharmjod said:

That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.

Except (not to be technical), but I don't think the Zombies was available at the Lego Retail Store, and Raptor Escape was a Wal-Mart exclusive that was available at the Lego Retail Store.

(Speaking of which - if someone has the two raptors from that set - I'd be happy to trade!)

My understanding through the retail channel is that every set available in the catalog at the major retailers is available at the Lego Retail Store.  This doesn't apply to seasonal/exclusive sets like the TRU Bricktober sets, or the Target Cube.  So take that for what it is worth.  Addtionally, the Retail Stores generally do not carry the full catalog of polybags, as they are not available through S@H.  And rarely do Target, TRU and Wal-Mart carry similar polybags in the same region/market.

prevere

sidersdd said:

With the number of sets available now it's possible that not all are being stocked in the stores.  Someone earlier mentioned Ra's al Ghul #76056 not being stocked at LEGO Stores as well.  Not sure if that's Wal-mart exclusive or not.  Brickset Availability field just says "Retail - limited". 

Tanker Truck Takedown #76067 is supposedly a TRU exclusive, but I think I've seen that at the LEGO Store.

I was surprised to see that Ra's #76056 was not available anywhere but Wally & S@H from what I can see. It has shown available for pickup today at my Wally. Stopped by. Nothing. Went home and ordered it ... still processing. Ordered from another Wally, and that one is ready for pickup.

Seems like a strange way to offer a $30 Super Heroes set.

pharmjod

I have very low expectations for the set regardless. It will be heavily horded.

SumoLego

^ Hoarded like a horde of zombies or a pack of escaped raptors...

CCC

SumoLego said:

pharmjod said:

That just made #76060 very interesting... it was already one I was gonna get, but being a target exclusive in the USA means it could go the monster fighters / raptor escape route and disappear sooner rather than later.

Except (not to be technical), but I don't think the Zombies was available at the Lego Retail Store, and Raptor Escape was a Wal-Mart exclusive that was available at the Lego Retail Store.

(Speaking of which - if someone has the two raptors from that set - I'd be happy to trade!)

My understanding through the retail channel is that every set available in the catalog at the major retailers is available at the Lego Retail Store.  This doesn't apply to seasonal/exclusive sets like the TRU Bricktober sets, or the Target Cube.  So take that for what it is worth.  Addtionally, the Retail Stores generally do not carry the full catalog of polybags, as they are not available through S@H.  And rarely do Target, TRU and Wal-Mart carry similar polybags in the same region/market.

The Zombies was available through Lego retail stores in the US. I bought one in Atlanta / Lawrenceville.

SumoLego

^ @CCC - That makes sense and would be in-line with the typical distribution.  

I appreciate the clarification!

wagnerml2

I think it was confirmed that #76060 will be the only Dr. Strange set and logically the only way to get the Dr. Strange minis.  That combined with the price point and Retail exclusivity make it a huge hoarder possibility.

SumoLego

^ See Ant-Man.

Scatterbug

Rather, don't compare to Ant-Man in terms of post EOL performance.

bandit778

@Scatterbug
That depends on where you are in the world, from reading through this thread, #76039 seemed to sell out a lot quicker in the U.S. than it did in the U.K.

brumey

i m selling fortrex's and misfortune keep's in my "local ebay-like fleamarket webpage"

THEY ARE SELLING LIKE HOTCAKES
fortrex for 70€
misfortune keep for 75€

i lost overview. must have pushed like 20 the last 14 days!

CCC

^ That's 30% or so off the Fortrex, isn't it? No wonder they are selling at 30% below RRP.

SithLord196

While I was at my nearest Lego store this past weekend, I overheard one of the employees telling a customer to go look for a specific set at one of the big three retailers (Target, Walmart, TRU) because it was exclusive to them and they didn't have any copies. I don't remember which set/store as I only overheard it, but take it for what you will.

I know retailer exclusives have been available at Lego stores in the past. I'd be surprised if that fact has changed.

Scatterbug

bandit778 said:

@Scatterbug
That depends on where you are in the world, from reading through this thread, #76039 seemed to sell out a lot quicker in the U.S. than it did in the U.K.

What I meant was everybody has Ant-Man performance in the back of their minds when looking at this set. Which means greater hoarding and lower returns come EOL.

brumey

yea

murica an super heroes!

we in europe dont like EDM or huge ass festivals.

we like the DUB and the stoner rock!

jungle, psy, goa, tek is also a thing here!
aaaand DnB for the london fabric kiddies!

does america even have a soundsystem scene like europe does ?   munich alone has 13 DUB-ONLY soundsystems! not counting soca/dancehall crap!

TheLoneTensor

brumey said:

yea

murica an super heroes!

we in europe dont like EDM or huge ass festivals.

we like the DUB and the stoner rock!

jungle, psy, goa, tek is also a thing here!
aaaand DnB for the london fabric kiddies!

does america even have a soundsystem scene like europe does ?   munich alone has 13 DUB-ONLY soundsystems! not counting soca/dancehall crap!

 
Um...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skwgk9duVaU

prevere

Scatterbug said:

bandit778 said:

@Scatterbug
That depends on where you are in the world, from reading through this thread, #76039 seemed to sell out a lot quicker in the U.S. than it did in the U.K.

What I meant was everybody has Ant-Man performance in the back of their minds when looking at this set. Which means greater hoarding and lower returns come EOL.

The likelihood that it retires as fast (4 months) as Ant-man is pretty low. That was certainly a huge factor in it's aftermarket rise.

Aanchir

sidersdd said:

madforLEGO said:

Has anyone heard if the Doctor Strange is an exclusive to a specific store in the US? I asked at the local LEGO store and they said no Doc Strange sets were in because they were an exclusive (they thought as a TRU but I see these at Target).

Brickset "Notes" field for #76060 listing says "[US] Target Exclusive".

That being said, I don't recall the retail exclusive sets being truly exclusive to those stores.  They can usually be found at the LEGO Stores.  The only set I can think of that was truly exclusive was the Toys R Us Truck set #7848.

It's a change that they made midway through this year. This is also the reason why most LEGO brand stores aren't reliably stocking this summer's Bionicle sets, since the final wave is Toys 'R' Us exclusive, or certain Ninjago sets like #70588, #70590, and #70596. Store exclusive sets for the first half of the year (like the entire Speed Champions range, which is Toys 'R' Us exclusive) were available at LEGO brand retail just as they have been in the past.

This change doesn't really surprise me because I know LEGO Brand Retail has a testy relationship with other stores. This is part of why the VIP program exists, and why deals on new or recent sets at LEGO stores tend to involve gifts-with-purchase rather than actual markdowns. If stores like Toys 'R' Us or Target felt like LEGO was undercutting their prices, it could jeopardize the LEGO Group's relationship with them. It doesn't surprise me that stores that have an exclusive agreement to stock certain sets in the United States don't take kindly to having to compete with LEGO for buyers.

Online sales seem to follow separate rules, same as how D2C/LEGO exclusive sets are available on the Target and Toys 'R' Us websites. So LEGO.com is still an option if you'd rather buy direct from LEGO.