Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SeanTheCollector

Maybe we can get this thread back on track now, talking about what might expire next and what the market value of those sets might be?

I personally don't buy to resell. However, I do appreciate sets more that have increased in value since I bought them. And I definitely get annoyed when I delay buying something that I now want but which has rocketed in value.

One example being The LEGO Movie #70810 "MetalBeard's Sea Cow" which was retired quickly after 18 months and typically sells for £300 on eBay now. I have luckily managed to pick up a badly battered one for £200 recently which is a bargain now. I wouldn't have bought a scratched one in the shop for £170 last year! :)

There seems to have been a lot of new sets released over the last few months. I am somewhat worried that lots of old sets will suddenly retire around the same time and my budget won't stretch far enough!

What sets at £100+ do people think will retire before Christmas? And what do people think those sets will sell for after Christmas?

Legopants

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JudgeChuck

I am worried that #10244 Fairground Mixer is going to go before I get a chance to buy it, as it has been around since 2014.
I might have to bite the bullet and get it sooner, rather than later, but I do want #10247 Ferris Wheel more... Decisions, decisions...

Tresillian

I'm looking at the Ewok Village at the moment or the Slave one, any thoughts on which might go sooner?  I get the feeling with the Death Star approaching something has to go

madforLEGO

JudgeChuck said:

I am worried that #10244 Fairground Mixer is going to go before I get a chance to buy it, as it has been around since 2014.
I might have to bite the bullet and get it sooner, rather than later, but I do want #10247 Ferris Wheel more... Decisions, decisions...

If I HAD to pick one, I would choose the Ferris Wheel as I think it will be worth more in the after market. As for 'playability' or display, I think again the Ferris wheel wins because while having a somewhat sizable footprint I think most would see it towering over a MOC and ooh and ahh over it. The Fairground Mixer is nice but half of the set pieces are for the trucks which really have nothing to do other than sit around compared to the main focus of the set. The other part of the set, the mixer, is neat, but unless you have it displayed toward the front of a MOC display then people likely will 'miss it'. That being said, another reason to get the Ferris wheel sooner than later is I believe when it goes EOL the price will likely jump, whereas not sure that will occur with the Mixer.

SumoLego

Tresillian said:

I'm looking at the Ewok Village at the moment or the Slave one, any thoughts on which might go sooner?  I get the feeling with the Death Star approaching something has to go

My guess would be the Ewok Village, as it appears to have been on the brink of retirement in the past.  With the Death Star returning, and the release of Assault on Hoth, three large SW playsets seems like a stretch and unsustsinable.  

I think the Sandcrawler would probably be more likely candidate as well.  Slave 1 is pretty popular and arguably the (second) last iconic SW ship.  

Or they'll retire the Tie Fighter and we'll all scramble around buying them up... 

CurvedRoadPlate

I would predict the Palace Cinema or Pet Shop will retire, in time for the next modular, available January 1st. (yet to be revealed)

I would speculate that it's not a matter of production, the sales of the holiday season deplete existing stock and sets are gone for good. Some sets are produced in multiple runs like the Pet Shop but others are done in a single large production run and when that run sells out the set is gone.

I also predict that the Tower Bridge may disappear from stores. Big Ben will probably help move the remaining stock.  

prevere

I would agree with the above that the Pet Shop, Tower Bridge and Sandcrawler - are the key sets to disappear first in their respective categories. And the VW Bus is way overdue for retirement. Just checked, that thing came out in 2011... my goodness.

JudgeChuck

madforLEGO said:

JudgeChuck said:

I am worried that #10244 Fairground Mixer is going to go before I get a chance to buy it, as it has been around since 2014.
I might have to bite the bullet and get it sooner, rather than later, but I do want #10247 Ferris Wheel more... Decisions, decisions...

If I HAD to pick one, I would choose the Ferris Wheel as I think it will be worth more in the after market. As for 'playability' or display, I think again the Ferris wheel wins because while having a somewhat sizable footprint I think most would see it towering over a MOC and ooh and ahh over it. The Fairground Mixer is nice but half of the set pieces are for the trucks which really have nothing to do other than sit around compared to the main focus of the set. The other part of the set, the mixer, is neat, but unless you have it displayed toward the front of a MOC display then people likely will 'miss it'. That being said, another reason to get the Ferris wheel sooner than later is I believe when it goes EOL the price will likely jump, whereas not sure that will occur with the Mixer.

Absolutely... The Ferris Wheel is a definite purchase, but I would like the Fairground Mixer as well... I actually like the extra trucks, which add a level of realism to a fairground scene... 

monkeyhanger

SumoLego said:

Tresillian said:

I'm looking at the Ewok Village at the moment or the Slave one, any thoughts on which might go sooner?  I get the feeling with the Death Star approaching something has to go

My guess would be the Ewok Village, as it appears to have been on the brink of retirement in the past.  With the Death Star returning, and the release of Assault on Hoth, three large SW playsets seems like a stretch and unsustsinable.  

I think the Sandcrawler would probably be more likely candidate as well.  Slave 1 is pretty popular and arguably the (second) last iconic SW ship.  

Or they'll retire the Tie Fighter and we'll all scramble around buying them up... 

With the big exception of the old Death Star, don't all the UCS SW sets get retired in order of oldest first? If so, then Ewok Village is long overdue.

If Ewok Village is considered an exception with it being an out and out playset, then Sandcrawler should be next. If Sandcrawler is considered a playset then Slave I should be next. If I had to pick one, i'd get the Slave I, it looks much better than the last system iteration.

The Tie fighter in its last system iteration looked almost as good as the UCS Tie, the UCS Tie is impressive in it's size more than its additional detail over the system equivalent.

The Sandcrawler is a good build, but still an elaborate brown box on wheels.

SumoLego

--cough cough-- TOWN HALL --cough cough--

Not everything retires in order.  Frankly, I'm expecting the Creator Ferrari to retire before the VW Bus or the Mini Cooper.

monkeyhanger

If I didn't have all of the aforementioned UCS SW sets, i'd bemoan missing out on the Slave I the most - it's not your typical grey box type of SW ship.

SeanTheCollector

Tresillian said:

I'm looking at the Ewok Village at the moment or the Slave one, any thoughts on which might go sooner?  I get the feeling with the Death Star approaching something has to go

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable that Ewok Village and Sandcrawler are on the way out but that Sandcrawler might survive into the new year although maybe not long into the new year. He suggested at that time that Slave One wasn't going anyway.

On that basis, I picked up Ewok Village and Sandcrawler during the 4/May Star Wars 10% off sale. I will be very annoyed if Slave One suddenly retires! :) I'm not so worried about missing out on the TIE Fighter although it will probably grow on me after it retires! :)

He also indicated that Fairground Mixer, The Simpsons House, Pet Shop and Palace Cinema had a limited lifespan.

SprinkleOtter

... had a limited lifespan.

All sets have a limited lifespan- Death Star proved that...

spepper

SprinkleOtter said:

... had a limited lifespan.

All sets have a limited lifespan- Death Star proved that...

Wrong. Orange Brick Separator :)

TigerMoth

SeanTheCollector said:

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable

If you believe knowledgeable assistants, you'll be in the exactly same situation as if you rely on sets being retired chronologically - disappointed.

SeanTheCollector

How often are exclusive and other large sets marked as "Retiring Soon" on Lego Shop online rather than simply becoming "Sold Out"?

I remember #76023 "The Tumbler" was marked as retiring soon for a month or two. I snapped one up even though I wasn't looking to buy one. I'm happy I did now since the aftermarket price has shot up and the set has grown on me!

Pitfall69

TigerMoth said:

SeanTheCollector said:

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable

If you believe knowledgeable assistants, you'll be in the exactly same situation as if you rely on sets being retired chronologically - disappointed.

I would like to know how many LEGO Employee's predictions have panned out in the history of this forum? 

Dawn

The manager of my LEGO store told me he gets his info from LEGO Forum including this one as they are rarely made aware of anything...

catwrangler

I only hope they don't retire Sandcrawler and Ewok Village simultaneously. I'd love to snap one of those up at a reduction, but either one would be a stretch, money-wise...

dougts

Dawn said:

The manager of my LEGO store told me he gets his info from LEGO Forum including this one as they are rarely made aware of anything...

i have generally always had better information than the store employees.  the managers will sometimes know more about upcoming stuff before we do, but I think that is less frequent now that it used to seem to be.

SprinkleOtter

Pitfall69 said:

TigerMoth said:

SeanTheCollector said:

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable

If you believe knowledgeable assistants, you'll be in the exactly same situation as if you rely on sets being retired chronologically - disappointed.

I would like to know how many LEGO Employee's predictions have panned out in the history of this forum? 

Problem is, a broken clock is right twice a day...

Legoboy

Huw said:

@Dougout has been banned,  the mods have had enough of his arguments and personal attacks

Let that be a warning to you all. You need to all stay good for five whole days until the the raffle is over. No refunds if you get banned. ;)

sklamb

spepper said:

SprinkleOtter said:

... had a limited lifespan.

All sets have a limited lifespan- Death Star proved that...

Wrong. Orange Brick Separator :)

This too shall pass. At least into a different color. Maybe around the time the new Death Star is retired, having shattered the "old" Death Star's longevity record...but this too shall pass....

Yodalicious

I cherish my lone green brick separator. 

SumoLego

^ The old style or the new style?

These are questions I must know the answers to...

TigerMoth said:

SeanTheCollector said:

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable

If you believe knowledgeable assistants, you'll be in the exactly same situation as if you rely on sets being retired chronologically - disappointed.

I wonder - does anyone ask these same types of questions to the stock guy at Foot Locker or at the Gap?  (More importantly, would anyone rely on the answers?)

prevere

Yodalicious said:

I cherish my lone green brick separator. 

I've never seen so much talk about brick separators in my life.

SprinkleOtter

SumoLego said:

^ The old style or the new style?

These are questions I must know the answers to...

TigerMoth said:

SeanTheCollector said:

I was told earlier in the year by a Lego Shop assistent who appeared quite knowledgable

If you believe knowledgeable assistants, you'll be in the exactly same situation as if you rely on sets being retired chronologically - disappointed.

I wonder - does anyone ask these same types of questions to the stock guy at Foot Locker or at the Gap?  (More importantly, would anyone rely on the answers?)

One question first- what's a "foot locker" or "Gap"?

Pitfall69

^Really?

SprinkleOtter

Pitfall69 said:

^Really?

Yeah... Never been to one... Perfectly comfortable (to me) shoes available at cheaper stores.

Farmer_John

TLG is releasing so many sets I want that I can't keep up anymore. I have always had a place in my heart for Technic, and the new sets (especially the excavator) rock. Big Ben (notice I didn't use "The" in front of it) is awesome. The Technic Porsche is growing on me and I still haven't picked up a modular Brick Bank. Toss in the sets that still haven't come out (Disney Castle, Winter Train, etc.) and there's no way I can afford them all at more than $200+ on average.

I am grateful to TLG for releasing such bad set in the Assault on Hoth though. One less set to try and pay for.

Shib

Dawn said:

The manager of my LEGO store told me he gets his info from LEGO Forum including this one as they are rarely made aware of anything...

I have similarly been told by an assistant manager that they generally only find out about stuff when it's officially announced - I think we were discussing the Disney CMFs at the time after images leaked but before the official announcement.

AustinPowers

spepper said:

SprinkleOtter said:

... had a limited lifespan.

All sets have a limited lifespan- Death Star proved that...

Wrong. Orange Brick Separator :)

But that's not a "set", is it? ;-)

AustinPowers

SprinkleOtter said:

One question first- what's a "foot locker" or "Gap"?

A "foot locker" is a cupboard in the attic where you keep all your extra feet. Those you take off after a long and strenuous shopping trip to your local Lego store.

A "Gap" is what you get at the top of your GBHQ when you don't
align the pieces at the bottom correctly.

;-)

And as for sets about to retire, what about Ideas and Architecture? Which sets from those lines do you think are the most likely to go in the near future? Especially Architecture seems to me as having experienced quite a large expansion of the line recently. 

AustinPowers

Farmer_John said:

TLG is releasing so many sets I want that I can't keep up anymore.

I feel the same. Never in my life have I bought so many Lego sets as in the last two years. And the "still to get" list grows longer every month:

Big Ben, Porsche GT3, Claas Xerion, Beetle, Brick Bank, GBHQ,...

And now the most amazing thing has happened: my wife, once never too fond of my Lego addiction, just saw the Disney castle and said "you have to get that". What? Did I hear right? She just asked me to get the most expensive set I would have ever purchased? I guess you can see why I married her - she is so full of pleasant surprises :-)

CCC

AustinPowers said:

spepper said:

SprinkleOtter said:

... had a limited lifespan.

All sets have a limited lifespan- Death Star proved that...

Wrong. Orange Brick Separator :)

But that's not a "set", is it? ;-)

Yes, #630-3

http://brickset.com/sets/630-3/Brick-Separator-Orange

AustinPowers

CCC said:

Yes, #630-3

http://brickset.com/sets/630-3/Brick-Separator-Orange

I stand corrected :-)

But honestly, who buys a brick separator separately (pun not intended), and for 2.49 Euro at that?

If someone offered me 2.49 Euro for each of my brick separators, I could buy the Brick Bank for the sale...

Scogali

AustinPowers said:

But honestly, who buys a brick separator separately (pun not intended), and for 2.49 Euro at that?

Quite right I would never. Nope. Ok maybe once. Or twice. Or like 10 times... I like brick separators ok!

CCC

AustinPowers said:

CCC said:

Yes, #630-3

http://brickset.com/sets/630-3/Brick-Separator-Orange

I stand corrected :-)

But honestly, who buys a brick separator separately (pun not intended), and for 2.49 Euro at that?

If someone offered me 2.49 Euro for each of my brick separators, I could buy the Brick Bank for the sale...

People in lego stores do. I've seen quite a few sold that way.

I guess if it is mainly your kids getting lego and they don't have bigger sets, then they wouldn't have one. And kids also tend to put lots of plates onto each other / baseplates and then cannot get them off.

nhyone

My thoughts on long-lived sets.

It has been commented on this forum (on this very thread, perhaps?) that TLG may be going for one big playset per movie. Death Star for ep IV, Assault on Hoth for ep V and Ewok Village for ep VI. I don't know if this is true or not, but Ewok Village hanging on past its "expected" shelf-date lends itself to this theory.

OTOH, I think Sandcrawler and Slave-1 are just regular releases; they will come and go. However, like the ones before them, they will be re-made after a certain time. So far, it looks like TLG sets an 8-year gap between big remakes.

On Volkswagen T1 Camper Van and Tower Bridge. Conventionally, we would expect them to make way for their "replacements", Volkswagen Beetle and Big Ben. But consider this: for new fans discovering the latter two, they might want to buy similar sets, and TLG discontinues those sets? I think it is more logical for TLG will continue to offer the sets.

My thoughts only. I have no skin in this game. :-)

SithLord196

I think that regarding the Ideas line, Wall-E is set to go. It might get one more production run, which is being hinted at on the U.S. S@H, but I think that could be the last. I still need to get that one.

Regarding Architecture, I feel like the White House, Trevi Fountin, Eiffel Tower, and Big Ben sets have been out for a while. 

One interesting note regarding the Friends line though. I noticed that my Walmarts have clearanced out the three Adventure Camp sets. Wonder if they might go soon, because they didn't seem to sell very well, at least around here.

TigerMoth

nhyone said:

On Volkswagen T1 Camper Van and Tower Bridge. Conventionally, we would expect them to make way for their "replacements", Volkswagen Beetle and Big Ben. But consider this: for new fans discovering the latter two, they might want to buy similar sets, and TLG discontinues those sets? I think it is more logical for TLG will continue to offer the sets.

Tower Bridge is also likely to hang around, at least for a while, because of the new UK flagship store. It's got a glitzy new format in a location where it's likely to attract interest.

The Architecture Big Ben might also survive - every tourist shop in London sells countless miniatures like that; it would seem silly if TLG didn't try to cash in on that particular market when they've got somewhere to do it. The same goes for the Eiffel Tower in Paris. You might only be talking about one store in each case, but I suspect the potential's huge.

SumoLego

^ I've been told there are still copies of the Willis Tower set at the Willis Tower in Chicago.

prevere

I would love to see the Willis Tower set dropped from the top. Making sure of course the ground level was clear. But I suppose terminal velocity would limit the amount of destruction to the bricks.

drdavewatford

AustinPowers said:

CCC said:

Yes, #630-3

http://brickset.com/sets/630-3/Brick-Separator-Orange

If someone offered me 2.49 Euro for each of my brick separators, I could buy the Brick Bank for the sale...

Right, but think how many incomplete sets you'd have....

TigerMoth

SumoLego said:

^ I've been told there are still copies of the Willis Tower set at the Willis Tower in Chicago.

I can believe it. But does it get a quarter of a million tourists every day, half of whom are looking for souvenirs?

Hmm, I wonder how many architecture sets you could sell, with just a small markup, before you got arrested for street trading...

Farmer_John

AustinPowers said:

Farmer_John said:

TLG is releasing so many sets I want that I can't keep up anymore.

I feel the same. Never in my life have I bought so many Lego sets as in the last two years. And the "still to get" list grows longer every month:

Big Ben, Porsche GT3, Claas Xerion, Beetle, Brick Bank, GBHQ,...

And now the most amazing thing has happened: my wife, once never too fond of my Lego addiction, just saw the Disney castle and said "you have to get that". What? Did I hear right? She just asked me to get the most expensive set I would have ever purchased? I guess you can see why I married her - she is so full of pleasant surprises :-)

I went ahead an purchased the Beetle a couple days ago so I could get a free mini London bus. Sad to say, it was the cheapest set on my want list I could purchase and still get the bus.

Personally, I'm holding out for at least double VIP points and maybe a decent free Christmas set before I purchase any of the big sets. I figure if I get enough double VIP points on several expensive sets, I may be able to pick one expensive set for less than $100 (maybe even free).

AustinPowers

Farmer_John said:

I went ahead an purchased the Beetle a couple days ago so I could get a free mini London bus. Sad to say, it was the cheapest set on my want list I could purchase and still get the bus.

Personally, I'm holding out for at least double VIP points and maybe a decent free Christmas set before I purchase any of the big sets. I figure if I get enough double VIP points on several expensive sets, I may be able to pick one expensive set for less than $100 (maybe even free).

Similar here. The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany, and for all the big sets I wait for either douple VIP points, Black Friday or special pre-Christmas offers.

Brickaholic

Lego_Star said:

I have a prediction or two:

(1) Someone is going to have their pick of all these prizes (and possibly more) when their £1 winning raffle ticket is picked out first on Friday night.

(2) And on Saturday night, and very likely Sunday too, all the remaining prizes will be drawn and won. 63 more and still more are being added.

The question is, will it be you?

Ticket sales must close August 4th. Check it out. Support @Legoboy walk 100km. Be part of the awesome brickset community saying "up yours" to cancer.

Don't like my post, but please click here instead: http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/24121/3-days-to-go-charity-fundraiser/p1


A rare thing for me but I'm "reselling" (read reposting) this awesome montage of the prizes donated so far, created by @TheOneVeyronian. Stay Calm, Don't Like, but buy some raffle tickets instead. :o)

http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/24121/3-days-to-go-charity-fundraiser/p1

Bump

TigerMoth

AustinPowers said:

The London Bus freebie is not (yet?) available in Germany

I imagine that's being kept for the opening of the Leicester Square store, and rather than make it country-specific, it's just being held back on the basis of their normal sales regions.