Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego · July 2016

Pitfall69 said:

brumey said:

think i ll get some SCOOBY DOO for milking ...

Can you milk a dog?

Stay away from bulls. (And Raging Bulls, in particular.) That's a whole different type of milking.

brumey · July 2016

lol, i took this with me from my steam/tf2/cs/games/item-trading. THOSE UNUSUALS!
its about sharking valuable items from clueless steam users for cheap and sell them with huge profit --> milking

this not a common phrase ?

eggshen · July 2016

@brumey, you used the phrase correctly. But most people think that Scooby Doo will not do will in aftermarket, since the majority of people that wanted it got it right when it came out, and it has been in market for much longer than anyone anticipated. Since it is not a good item, it is a "dog" item. The joke here is that most people don't "milk" dogs. :)

brumey · July 2016

oh well. then its goin to be another high speed train. making 1 big one out of 3!
anyone done some speed tuning for PF trains ? like 2 motors or something?

MattsWhat · July 2016

^^Did you just credit @Pitfall69 with all that level of thought?
My guess is that he went - "Ha, Scooby Doo for milking - Scooby is a dog, you can't milk dogs. hahaha. I better make a meme, oh wait ponies, no time for memes now, better just post it."

TheLoneTensor · July 2016

Don't google milking dogs. Don't.

Pitfall69 · July 2016

^To be honest, you are actually giving me too much credit; to actually imply that I think is a bit overboard.

prevere · July 2016

All of this reminds me of that scene in Kingpin.

koshka · July 2016

On holiday in the back of beyond in Sweden and there's a toy shop with a completely random mix of new and older Lego. It's not particularly cheap e.g. Lego Creationary game for about £35 but they do have the 75055 Imperial Star Destroyer for about £130. I'm torn about whether to buy it as a potential build that I could always sell in a year or two if I decide I don't like it. Any opinions? Further examples of random older stock include a bunch of Galaxy Squad sets.

prevere · July 2016

^I certainly wouldn't touch Galaxy Squad with a 49 and a half-foot pole.

lordzarak · July 2016

prevere said:

I think if I wait long enough the Doc Brown Dimensions pack will eventually be free. I've never seen a set on Amazon drop 2-3 cents every day for about 2 weeks straight before.

I feel like an idiot for paying $6.50 for him. If only time travel were real, I'd stop myself and save a buck-fifty. That's good use of time-travel, yessiree!

koshka · July 2016

prevere said:

^I certainly wouldn't touch Galaxy Squad with a 49 and a half-foot pole.

Don't worry - I'm not going anywhere near it.

JooTog · July 2016

brumey said:

oh well. then its goin to be another high speed train. making 1 big one out of 3!
anyone done some speed tuning for PF trains ? like 2 motors or something?

I combined 3 #60051 High-Speed Passenger Train. Each extra train added 2 middle carts for a total for 7 sections (1 engine, 5 passenger carts, rear "fake" engine). The single motor performed well... can't speed it up much without the train derailing anyway.

brumey · July 2016

i plan a 5 meter straight track in my layout. this is where the "high speed" comes into play!

SithLord196 · July 2016

lordzarak said:

prevere said:

I think if I wait long enough the Doc Brown Dimensions pack will eventually be free. I've never seen a set on Amazon drop 2-3 cents every day for about 2 weeks straight before.

I feel like an idiot for paying $6.50 for him. If only time travel were real, I'd stop myself and save a buck-fifty. That's good use of time-travel, yessiree!

Yeah, I bought mine when it was like $6.50 too. I ended up with two copies though. The first one I got had really badly damaged packaging to where it looked like someone spray painted the back of the package. When I reported it they sent me a new one using one day shipping and told me to keep the old one.

Scatterbug · July 2016

eggshen said:
But most people think that Scooby Doo will not do will in aftermarket, since the majority of people that wanted it got it right when it came out, and it has been in market for much longer than anyone anticipated.

Completely disagree. Have you not heard of people emerging from their Dark Ages?

The Mystery Machine, Lighthouse and Mansion are great sets full stop. They will do nicely post EOL.

pharmjod · July 2016

I know I have 10 or so mystery mansions and 15-16 mystery machines all purchased at 50% off and I'm not too concerned about them. I really like both sets personally and I suspect I won't be the only one. Unfortunately they have both been produced longer than I had hoped, but they should still do OK.

SumoLego · July 2016

^ A fleet of Mystery Machines!

(You'll be ready for the Zombie Apocalypse.)

pharmjod · July 2016

Rick Grimes ain't got nothing on Scooby and the gang.

Secretjedi · July 2016

Scatterbug said:

eggshen said:
But most people think that Scooby Doo will not do will in aftermarket, since the majority of people that wanted it got it right when it came out, and it has been in market for much longer than anyone anticipated.

Completely disagree. Have you not heard of people emerging from their Dark Ages?

The Mystery Machine, Lighthouse and Mansion are great sets full stop. They will do nicely post EOL.

Agree with this. Scooby Doo has has been around for decades and will be long after we're all gone.

Scatterbug · July 2016

koshka said:

They do have the 75055 Imperial Star Destroyer for about £130. I'm torn about whether to buy it as a potential build that I could always sell in a year or two if I decide I don't like it. Any opinions?

Only buy if to build. After fees, any selling profit would be marginal.

madforLEGO · July 2016

Secretjedi said:

Scatterbug said:

eggshen said:
But most people think that Scooby Doo will not do will in aftermarket, since the majority of people that wanted it got it right when it came out, and it has been in market for much longer than anyone anticipated.

Completely disagree. Have you not heard of people emerging from their Dark Ages?

The Mystery Machine, Lighthouse and Mansion are great sets full stop. They will do nicely post EOL.

Agree with this. Scooby Doo has has been around for decades and will be long after we're all gone.

Yeah, but how many people coming out of their LEGO dark ages will have enough nostalgia for Scooby doo LEGO? How many of those people will then pay dearly for those sets? Will they go up in value over retail? Likely, almost every license will, but by how much? If you buy something at 35-50% off and in bulk (That is at least 10 or each), you will probably do OK, but lets not start thinking these will become 'The Zombies' set or a Modular in terms of going up when gone.
The other probable is you have countless other resellers that are going to think the same thing, and buy 20-30 of each to sell off bit by bit, which lowers the after market values until those stocks are gone, and guess what? Many resellers will sit there and wait for those to sell their stocks off before putting their 30 up, bit by bit. These were not expensive sets to begin with and also were on sale a lot, especially lately. Are they neat sets? Sure but Im not seeing leaps and bounds rises.
So is there money to be made? Likely, but only if you bought in bulk and be prepared to hold them for a while.

pharmjod · July 2016

I agree, Scooby isn't likely to be a home run type set, but at 50% off I need the mystery machine to sell for $50-$55 to double my money. At $40 I'm still making a 50% return. Am I getting rich? No. Am I getting a "free' modular or some other set after I sell them all? Yup.

SumoLego · July 2016

pharmjod said:

Rick Grimes ain't got nothing on Scooby and the gang.

I think we has a shotgun.

(Unless Scooby Snacks or 93-layer sandwiches are effective against Zombies.)

SprinkleOtter · July 2016

^ Just use the super-power-giving Scooby Snacks.

Wait, sorry, we swore never to speak of that.

How about the sCrappy demon?

flord · July 2016

pharmjod said:

I know I have 10 or so mystery mansions and 15-16 mystery machines all purchased at 50% off and I'm not too concerned about them.

I bought a Mystery Mansion at 30% off and thought I was getting a good deal. 50% off? Tell me all of your secrets.

TigerMoth · July 2016

flord said:

Tell me all of your secrets.

They wouldn't be secrets then, would they?

pharmjod · July 2016

No secret. Meijer.

SumoLego · July 2016

Who is Meijer, and how can I meet him?

Does he know the location of the Maltese Falcon? He must know the true identity of Keyser Soze. And what is in Marcellus Wallace's briefcase.

pharmjod · July 2016

He told me the answer to all your questions is 42.

SumoLego · July 2016

Thanks for all the fish?

brumey · July 2016

420^^

Dougout · July 2016

50% Scooby Doo I would load up. I've only got 3 Mystery Machines @ 10% off

SithLord196 · July 2016

I have to wonder if Lego's popularity, while still insanely high, may be waning off just a bit. Either that, or they've begun over producing. Or my area is just odd.

When I first got back into Lego a few years ago, you could find sets on clearance without much issue around here. Then for a few years it was impossible. Now I'm finding a lot of clearance again, like the Frozen Ice Castle for $30, First Order Transporter for $64, etc.

It could just be my area being weird, but thought I'd share my findings anyway. I'm not counting on it but it would be nice if that First Order Transporter is still there when I get paid Friday.

SumoLego · July 2016

Frankly, I doubt it is overproduction - but you have to remember on the retail side of things, sets that are sold at even at a substantial discount are still profitable for both Lego and the end retailer.

There is a fair amount of loss that is factored into the MSRP.

SprinkleOtter · July 2016

SithLord196 said:

I have to wonder if Lego's popularity, while still insanely high, may be waning off just a bit. Either that, or they've begun over producing. Or my area is just odd.

When I first got back into Lego a few years ago, you could find sets on clearance without much issue around here. Then for a few years it was impossible. Now I'm finding a lot of clearance again, like the Frozen Ice Castle for $30, First Order Transporter for $64, etc.

It could just be my area being weird, but thought I'd share my findings anyway. I'm not counting on it but it would be nice if that First Order Transporter is still there when I get paid Friday.

That "clearance" is little more than a normal sale.
Clearance, back in the day, was 50% off or more.

SumoLego · July 2016

I think 'clearance' on the S@H site is 8.2% off of retail.

SithLord196 · July 2016

That's as good as it gets in this area, and that's still better than a couple years ago.

madforLEGO · July 2016

SithLord196 said:

I have to wonder if Lego's popularity, while still insanely high, may be waning off just a bit. Either that, or they've begun over producing. Or my area is just odd.

When I first got back into Lego a few years ago, you could find sets on clearance without much issue around here. Then for a few years it was impossible. Now I'm finding a lot of clearance again, like the Frozen Ice Castle for $30, First Order Transporter for $64, etc.

It could just be my area being weird, but thought I'd share my findings anyway. I'm not counting on it but it would be nice if that First Order Transporter is still there when I get paid Friday.

I know that LEGO is wearing on me. I have really decreased my purchases this year as opposed to years past. Partly due to lack of truely 'awesome' sets, partly due to prices.

SumoLego · July 2016

^ So - is a name change to @tepidlyinterestedinLego on the horizon?

dougts · July 2016

madforLEGO said:

I know that LEGO is wearing on me. I have really decreased my purchases this year as opposed to years past. Partly due to lack of truely 'awesome' sets, partly due to prices.

same. Mine have been steadily declining the last 2-3 years. Still a fair amount by "normal person" standards, but much less than 2010-13. Partly due to no interesting themes (to me), partly due to the lack of discounted exclusive policy, and partly due to the ever increased focus on minifigures at the expense of build/bricks

cloaked7 · July 2016

dougts said:
Mine have been steadily declining the last 2-3 years.

You're telling me! Oh wait..... You're talking about LEGO interest.
Whew.... I thought... Never mind. :-)

Farmer_John · July 2016

I remember back in the heyday when sales at S@H included exclusives such as the Imperial Flagship #10210 for about $125, the Emerald Knight #10194 for around $65, and the B-Wing #10227 for $100. One of my favorite all-time deals from S@H was getting a couple Technic Front Loader #8265 sets for under $40 each. I really love that set!

2013 will go down in infamy on this thread as the year that TLG killed off sales on exclusive sets (along with the excitement of getting a great deal).

SumoLego · July 2016

^ Hey, hey! Just wait a second! I got a keychain for $2.99.

(Oh wait, that isn't much of a sale price.)

pharmjod · July 2016

I personally think it will all come full circle again. There will be discounts on exclusives eventually. We have already seen it on kwik e mart and tie fighter.

brumey · July 2016

i sold 3 misfortune keep for 72€ (1 mother even sent a thank you with a picture of her children playing... MUCH LOVE!!!) and got myself the led darth vader keychain from amazon.uk and normal one from lego!

should have bought more when it was on sale for 47 GBP
am i a bad reseller now? cuz of "little fast money"

piratemania7 · July 2016

Farmer_John said:

I remember back in the heyday when sales at S@H included exclusives such as the Imperial Flagship #10210 for about $125, the Emerald Knight #10194 for around $65, and the B-Wing #10227 for $100. One of my favorite all-time deals from S@H was getting a couple Technic Front Loader #8265 sets for under $40 each. I really love that set!

2013 will go down in infamy on this thread as the year that TLG killed off sales on exclusive sets (along with the excitement of getting a great deal).

Sounds cliche, but I remember having the Emerald Knight in hand ON DISCOUNT, and thinking, nah, thats a lot to spend on a train... a theme I dont even collect...so back on the shelf it goes.

3-4 years later, several trains, tons of track and roadplates later I can only kick myself for putting it down.....

wagnerml2 · July 2016

Bought 10 EN on clearance at $60 per pop. Just sold the last one a few months back for $450. Easily one of my best purchases.

Farmer_John · July 2016

^Sweet!!

^^Just because I "liked" your post doesn't mean I'm gloating. I've let a few good sets get away myself (here's looking at you Green Grocer and Hogwarts Express).

cloaked7 · July 2016

^ & ^^
Yup, I went through the same thought process with the Falcon. I remember talking to a LEGO employee at a LEGO store about it. He was raving about the set, but when I saw the $500 price tag I thought - "who in their right mind will spend that much on a box of plastic? they won't be selling many of those". So, I didn't buy one... then. Fortunately it was the customer appreciation period at LEGO. You remember, when they would mark down close out items to get rid of remaining inventory and give customers a great deal. One morning I got an email for LEGO about the Falcon being discontinued and that I could buy up to 2 for $400 each (20% discount). So, I did. The rest is history.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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