Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Bricklover18

I'm not a bionicle fan either but for that price I am. 

BrickDancer

Never cared before, but at just under a buck, Bionicle might actually be worth their price. So just dipped into my local Walmart to see if they happened to have this set at $0.93. But of course they didn't and not only that, they had 0 Bionicle sets at all. Guess my neighborhood as whole doesn't care about them either.

monstblitz

Meh, still wouldn't touch Bionicle at that price.  I think I'd have to be paid $5 to take a set home. 

Bumblepants

I got a free Hero Factory once a year or so ago. Took it for the giant gold shield part. Still haven't found a good use for it but I am sure inspiration will strike one day.

monstblitz

Is it this one?

Found it in a recent Craigslist haul.  Also no clue what to do with it...

Brickamore

monstblitz said:

Is it this one?

Found it in a recent Craigslist haul.  Also no clue what to do with it...

I added one of these to my cart to round out a Bricklink order last year. I had the idea to put in the throne room of the castle I've been meaning to build.

Bricklover18

It's from a knights kingdom buildable figure from the early 2000s I think it's from the king.

SprinkleOtter

monstblitz said:

Is it this one?

Found it in a recent Craigslist haul.  Also no clue what to do with it...

No, that is from King Mathias (#2)

Farmer_John

It's all in how you look at it. Hero Factory sets are great IF they have parts like Part #92222. Those parts are going for a mint in the aftermarket due to their rarity and use in the #5004590 Bat-pod.

Bumblepants

This one from 'Rocka':

SumoLego

Farmer_John said:

It's all in how you look at it. Hero Factory sets are great IF they have parts like Part #92222. Those parts are going for a mint in the aftermarket due to their rarity and use in the #5004590 Bat-pod.

Is that a common occurrence?  

I have to admit, that Hero Factory Fleas Bee's Knees Sneeze set is the only Bionicle set I've ever purchased.  And only because of the shield parts for the Bat-Pod, and they happened to be on clearance at TRU.

Farmer_John

Probably not.

Like you, I did purchase a couple HF Fleas Bee's Knees Sneeze sets for the Bat-Pod parts. At one point a few years ago, my kids were into the theme so I have a few HF sets lying around that I got on clearance that were never given out as gifts (set #7158 comes to mind).

But if I saw a stack of HF Fleas sets or set #7158 (for the wheels) on clearance for half price, I probably wouldn't pass up grabbing a couple.

Bumblepants

What about an RHCP Fleas knees?

SprinkleOtter

SumoLego said:

Farmer_John said:

It's all in how you look at it. Hero Factory sets are great IF they have parts like Part #92222. Those parts are going for a mint in the aftermarket due to their rarity and use in the #5004590 Bat-pod.

Is that a common occurrence?  

I have to admit, that Hero Factory Fleas Bee's Knees Sneeze set is the only Bionicle set I've ever purchased.  And only because of the shield parts for the Bat-Pod, and they happened to be on clearance at TRU.

*cringe*
Hero Factor is not Bionicle... No more than Police is Fire...

SumoLego

I think we are just nitpicking.

From Wikipedia, which is on the internet, so it must be true:

"Premiering in the summer of 2010, the theme was created in response to the decision to close down production of the formerly-popular Lego construction theme Bionicle and acted as a successor."

I think even the informed AFOL would approach Hero Factory as not dissimilar than Bionicle.

SprinkleOtter

SumoLego said:

I think we are just nitpicking.

From Wikipedia, which is on the internet, so it must be true:

"Premiering in the summer of 2010, the theme was created in response to the decision to close down production of the formerly-popular Lego construction theme Bionicle and acted as a successor."

I think even the informed AFOL would approach Hero Factory as not dissimilar than Bionicle.

I probably am.

Knights' Kingdom II was a successor to Classic Castle- would anyone here vouch for it being very similar? Or that good?

Pitfall69

Wow, some people take their Bionicle seriously.

SumoLego

^^  They are all Castle Lego, so yes.

(Police and Fire are both City.)

SprinkleOtter

Pitfall69 said:

Wow, some people take their Bionicle seriously.

Yes, yes I do. ;)

I just have three normal release sets left, as well as some silly battery pack sets and such.

SumoLego

So in perusing the S@H website, I noticed that the #75920-1 - Raptor Escape is nowhere to be found.  I'm sure (as an exclusive) it's been long gone from Wal-Mart and the Lego Retail Store.

Thoughts on whether it's "exclusivity" will command higher values.  Or is the theme in general going to wane once the sequel comes our, or if Lego opts to do another in-house dinosaur-themed release.

Brickpicker indicates 2x RRP, but I generally find their values all over the place.

Farmer_John

I haven't seen the Raptor Escape set anywhere for sometime now...maybe a year? Last I checked, it was about 2X RRP as you indicated. Dinosaurs-themed sets seem to do better only after they've been gone for awhile and kids want dinosaurs again. I would expect the JW sets to do okay after EOL since there's supposed to be a JW 2 movie released in the next couple of years.

The main reason people purchase the two raptor sets are (obviously) the raptors, which are unique across both sets. The Raptor Escape set has Delta and Echo; the Raptor Rampage set has Blue and Charlie. Of course anyone trying to collect all four raptors needs to purchase the Raptor Escape set (which is essentially gone). What's interesting is that when I purchased each of the four individual raptors on BL, the most expense one was "Blue," which is from a set that is still available. The two raptors from the Raptor Escape set were on par with Charlie from the Raptor Rampage set.

monkeyhanger

Not sure the JW sets will do well, more of a want for kids than AFOLs and there are plenty of cheap copies of the dinosaurs kicking around on ebay and Amazon.

AustinPowers

Bricklover18 said:

Wonder if the app is right for once 

Well, it might be right, but it sure can't calculate.

Or how does a price drop from 29.99 to 0.93 equate to a saving of 6.01 ???

sklamb

The set is on sale at S@H for exactly that $6.01 discount...and IMO definitely worth 93 cents, if not more, given all the transparent details. Still baffled at where the 0.93 price came from, though.

peted76

How long do you think te Big Ben set will be available for? I'm pegging this for a collectible set in a couple of years and I just wonder how long it'll be available for in the lego shop based on other similar sets?

msanders

peted76 said:

How long do you think te Big Ben set will be available for? I'm pegging this for a collectible set in a couple of years and I just wonder how long it'll be available for in the lego shop based on other similar sets?

1 to 6+ years, give or take a few... ;-)

SprinkleOtter

SumoLego said:

So in perusing the S@H website, I noticed that the #75920-1 - Raptor Escape is nowhere to be found.  I'm sure (as an exclusive) it's been long gone from Wal-Mart and the Lego Retail Store.

Thoughts on whether it's "exclusivity" will command higher values.  Or is the theme in general going to wane once the sequel comes our, or if Lego opts to do another in-house dinosaur-themed release.

Brickpicker indicates 2x RRP, but I generally find their values all over the place.

I managed to score three at a local Walmart just before Christmas. They check all of my boxes for "this is gonna cost too much to buy later."

Were you looking for one? As I said, I got two extras.

brumey

i suppose ninjago demand will go up when the movie hits (sep 2016 ?) ?

do you think ninjago sets will peak in value when the movie hits, after the movie hits or just before the movie starts ?

Aanchir

brumey said:

i suppose ninjago demand will go up when the movie hits (sep 2016 ?) ?

do you think ninjago sets will peak in value when the movie hits, after the movie hits or just before the movie starts ?

Tough to say. From what we've heard, the Ninjago movie seems to be a separate continuity from the previous story arcs (like how the live-action Transformers and TMNT movies are separate from their respective TV shows), and I have a feeling that as with The LEGO Movie, most of the essential scenes, vehicles, and props will be newly designed for the movie rather than plucked from the backlog of existing Ninjago sets. With that in mind, I'm not sure how many people the movie would compel to pay inflated aftermarket prices on old sets when they could pay RRP for new ones that play a bigger role in the movie.

What The LEGO Movie did seem to have a lot of was previously-designed minifigures. Superman, Green Lantern, Wonder Woman, Minifigures Series 6 Lady Liberty, Minifigures Series 2 Vampire, Minifigures Series 1 Clown, Lando Calrissian, etc. I'm sure the LEGO Ninjago movie will also have familiar figs as background characters, cameos, and crowd-filler, but there's no way to reliably predict which figs exactly will see increased demand until we at least have a trailer.

pharmjod

The only ninjago sets I currently have for investment are battle for ninjago city and wu dragon. All of them were purchased for 50-75% off. I like them because they also appeal somewhat to adults. The building is a great looking Asian themed structure regardless of theme.

brumey

i heard that there will be an old villain coming back in the movie .  

leaning out of the window now and saying it will be garmadon!

SithLord196

Catching up on a few pages...

PA weather is PA weather.

My local minor league baseball team actually has the best winning percentage in professional baseball at 69.7% from what I understand.

As for actual back on topic, I'm okay with Bionicle and have a few of them. The fire and ice ones definitely seem the most popular, at least around here.

Regarding pricing, I also have to deal with 6% sales tax and I find it obnoxious, but it is what it is. The Brick Bank is really hard to convince myself to get. Even with the new pieces in it, I just don't see the purpose of the price increase, especially since it's non licensed. Maybe when the next double VIP points rolls around I'll pull the trigger, but the price increases do seem to be becoming steeper and more frequent from my perspective.

I'm curious as to how City resells. I'm asking because my local closing KMart had a stack of about 10+ of the 4x4 Off Roader ( #60115 ) last weekend on Saturday. They were 40% off. I went back to grab one this past Friday and the whole stack was gone even though the discount was the same. Just seemed surprising to me. I ended up getting the set at a 20% discount from my local Lego Store anyway because I had to use the extra 100 VIP points coupon before it expires, but I was still surprised the stack sold out that quick.

dougts

^ my experiences with City sets are not great. the vast majority of them either get replaced by something very very similar within 2-3 years, or there's something else in City that's close enough to keep the prices depressed.  At any one time, there's 50-100 City sets still available in the primary market - which is way more than enough to provide plenty of options for most buyers, who aren't even necessary looking for a specific set.

There are certainly winners to be found #3222 was a big one (though might not be now, since they essentially just released a replacement).  Some of the $100+ sets were decent winners, though the last two years or so hasn't seen the same gains as the prior years.

As for the 4x4 off-roader.  Probably not going to lose money at 40% off, but not sure you would make all that much either, after factoring in fees, costs, etc.  There are always plenty of 4x4 type vehicles released.  what they are towing changes, but the vehicles are mostly clones year after year.

Farmer_John

SithLord196 said:

Regarding pricing, I also have to deal with 6% sales tax and I find it obnoxious, but it is what it is.

Six percent would be nice; we have a 10% sales tax in our state.

SithLord196

I don't actually do any reselling, I was just curious, and it sounds about what my thoughts were on it.

I just found it odd that a relatively minor set that there seemed to be not much interest in would have an entire stack of 10+ disappear in 6 days.

Bricklover18

I'm not going to complain about the 6% sales tax, it could be worse. 

goshe7

SithLord196 said:

I don't actually do any reselling, I was just curious, and it sounds about what my thoughts were on it.

I just found it odd that a relatively minor set that there seemed to be not much interest in would have an entire stack of 10+ disappear in 6 days.

There is the possibility that someone purchased them all for a charitable donation.  Someone who is an AFOL and wants to give less privileged kids the chance to be exposed to LEGO.  These days a regular shopper will rarely find a 40% discount until sets go on clearance.  Less desirable sets from a resale perspective would still be a great opportunity for this approach.

There are also plenty of reselling strategies out there.  Some are quite happy to churn through dozens of sales at a few dollars profit on each sale.

CupIsHalfEmpty

SithLord196 said:

I just found it odd that a relatively minor set that there seemed to be not much interest in would have an entire stack of 10+ disappear in 6 days.

Ironically I was just looking at that set because it's one of the only sets that has 11211 in green

Maybe somebody bought to part out. Look on bricklink for somebody in your area with 20 green 11211's for sale. 

SithLord196

It's just not a usual occurrence in this area. The discount came from the fact that that particular KMart is closing.

True, the sales tax could be worse. It's not nearly as bad as our roads for example.

(Meant as a joke.)

SumoLego

^ Maybe just the bridges and overpasses.

Yodalicious

SumoLego said:

So in perusing the S@H website, I noticed that the #75920-1 - Raptor Escape is nowhere to be found.  I'm sure (as an exclusive) it's been long gone from Wal-Mart and the Lego Retail Store.

Thoughts on whether it's "exclusivity" will command higher values.  Or is the theme in general going to wane once the sequel comes our, or if Lego opts to do another in-house dinosaur-themed release.

Brickpicker indicates 2x RRP, but I generally find their values all over the place.

I saw these resurface at one of my local Walmarts months after they had first disappeared. I picked up 2 (already had 1 to complete the theme). It was the first set that wasn't a polybag that I'd picked up as an investment. Exclusive, dinosaurs, gone fairly quickly. Good enough for me. But it also checks the final box for me which is just as important...if it doesn't do much in the aftermarket, I can enlarge my raptor pen and add to my raptor population. I don't resell, but mostly get doubles of anything to trade in the future. But if I'm buying anything with that intent, it must be something I can use if I never actually get rid of it. 

SithLord196

SumoLego said:

^ Maybe just the bridges and overpasses.

There's a bridge northeast of where I'm at along a state highway that crosses an interstate, and about a year ago a section of the concrete wall on one side fell off. It still hasn't been fixed, with jersey barriers being put up around the hole instead.

Bricklover18

^there's a walking bridge in my town that was recently inspected by the state, and it was immediately shut down. Apparently it was structurally deficient and could collapse at any time. People used the bridge for their daily travel!

SithLord196

They're actually rebuilding an entire bridge near me that was a secondary exit point for the city. It seems to be going slower than expected as lane closures that were advertised for the highway it goes over have not occurred (they're still working on the section that goes over the river), and they stopped warning about them too. Hopefully it doesn't affect my commute at all whenever they get around to it. 

The bigger problem is if/when they start working on the major exit point of the city and fixing its two bridges across the river and the highway (which also doubles as an interchange for said highway). That's going to a huge traffic disaster most likely.

Brew

I was just looking at the latest going rate for a couple of sealed sets I own and I have a question. A new UCS Tie Advance #10175 is going for ~$1000 on BL right now (asking price) while used versions are lagging behind at ~$500. While Imperial Flagship is ~$700 new and ~$600 used.

Question is, what are the main drivers of the difference between new and used sets? I suppose availability of used sets is a factor, but are there other things?

Looks like IF's value doesn't take a huge hit if I opened and built it, while with #10175 I would be much better off selling it and buying a used one for my enjoyment...

BrickDancer

^Collectability of the set/theme is the differentiator. Collectors of Pirate theme tend to actually build the sets and not too interested in keeping them MISB for long term collection. As opposed to Star Wars sets, especially UCS, where the MISB type actually have its own audience of collectors separate from those who like to build their UCS sets. Hence why you have the largest disparity between Used vs. New in #10179 UCS Falcon, at ~$1,800 Used vs. ~$4,000 New. As if it's not even the same set or linked together in some way at more than 2x difference.

But I'm utterly shocked that the TIE Advanced made it to that $1K mark, considering in 2012 it was only around $175 Used vs. $350 New at best.

Ma1234

Playmobil got a Ghostubsters license. I bet existing LEGO sets are carved out, but I certainly wouldn't expect the theme to expand. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8DNRyPXVEI&feature=youtu.be

SumoLego

^ Hmmm...  I suppose we should assume that the new GB is going to track better Internationally?  I find this incredibly puzzling and a strange bit of marketing for Playmobil.

Aside from the BMW license a decade ago, has Playmobil ventured into licensed properties?

(Does anyone care?)

Admittedly, I was confused with the Angry Birds licensing, but that franchise is atleast geared toward kids and has broad appeal.  I'm not seeing that in the least with GB.

Perhaps we'll see a Playmobil Harry Potter line that I can also wholeheartedly ignore.

brickupdate

Wow -- isn't that bold new territory for Playmobil -- licensing?! And of all brands to start with, why Ghostbusters? 

Ma1234

SumoLego said:

^ Hmmm...  I suppose we should assume that the new GB is going to track better Internationally?  I find this incredibly puzzling and a strange bit of marketing for Playmobil.

Aside from the BMW license a decade ago, has Playmobil ventured into licensed properties?

Playmobil has two current licenses, NHL and Porsche. This is the third.

Also, the license is based on the original movie, not the new movie. 

I collect Playmobil, too (not to the extent of LEGO), so I'm excited to see what they come up with. Playmobil makes better "playsets" than LEGO, which might suit Ghostbusters well.