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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 421
    Time to get things back on track..
    So when will the new to-be-released Death Star retire?
    I think it will be quite soon. Legoland Windsor already has it listed on their hard to find products stock checking list. 
  • groundedgrounded Central OhioMember Posts: 73
    pharmjod said:
    Coast to Coast
    What I would give for a Brak minifigure. Or Moltar.
    Bumblepants
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^  Yeah, I agree.  I'll probably retire before the next DS does.  :-)
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    There will always be opportunities for reselling, but expectations must be tempered. For every ant man final battle that catches us off guard, you will have massive over corrections on sets like Dr.strange and ghost rider. Large exclusives will be OK if you are good with a $50 return for a long time. It really just depends on your strategy. There seem to be a lot of sellers satisfied with retail arbitrage via Amazon and to a lesser extent eBay. As long as there are people OK with making $5 or less a sale, it will limit the prospects for anyone else. Unless you want to hold for 5+ years which I am simply not willing to do anymore. 
    Farmer_Johndougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Completely agree. Unfortunately, there are now so many decoys out there to sift through to find the real gems that it just isn't worth it. Too much work and risk for too little return.
    dougtsbrickupdate
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    ^ Which is probably what the folks over at Lego would like to hear from people on the secondary market.

    I am curious to see how well the Disney CMFs do a year or two from now.  My guess is that many cases are being stashed for a rainy day, but that the market value will stay pretty flat.
    Farmer_John
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2016
    ^ As with any set or series, A LOT depends on how many are made.  If the first series has a relatively short run the return will be nice in a couple of years.  Especially considering that there will be people coming to the party late (when series 3+ comes out) wanting first series minis.

    And, I think that regardless of the qty made certain pairs (Alice & Cat) will do well, along with certain singles (Stitch, Buzz).
    SumoLego
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Which is probably what the folks over at Lego would like to hear from people on the secondary market.

    I am curious to see how well the Disney CMFs do a year or two from now.  My guess is that many cases are being stashed for a rainy day, but that the market value will stay pretty flat.
    Glad you brought the Disney CMFs up and I completely agree. The price on a case of Disney CMFs is currently almost $100 higher than a case of Series 15 CMFs could be purchased for on eBay while it was out. No doubt there are loads of Disney CMF cases being stashed. The supply will outweigh the demand for a LONG time with these, and it'll be a slow rise at best.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    If this were anything but Disney, I'd normally agree.  But Disney fans are rabid, and take things to a whole new level - millions more people with more added every year.  I don't think it matters how many are made today, or how many are stashed away.  The moment these go officially retired, I would expect them to climb and climb and climb.
    goshe7SumoLegoVorpalRyuYodaliciouscloaked7BrickDancerAllBrickoldtodd33Omastar
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    I agree, however I believe LEGO and Disney will produce these in numbers we've never seen before. I stand by my prediction that we may still be seeing these in stores by Christmas. Heck, we may see them up until series 2 eventually comes out.
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    I get the sense that there was a (higher) disproportionate amount of production, but that the supply chain spigot is being closely monitored.

    I don't anticipate some tremendous glut of product that would 'flood' the market.

    That said, I would anticipate Lego to sell out of these first, and who knows how many will be in the TRU, Target and Wal-Mart warehouses...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The only places I've seen the Disney Series (so far) are Lego Stores and TRU. Haven't seen them at Walmart or Target yet (at least in my area). There's a tremendous amount of hoarding going on with this series; far more than anything I've seen since Series 1. I'm sure the resellers hit this Series in droves, so I expect a slower climb than would normally be the case...even with more buyers. Interestingly enough, they're easy (and relatively cheap) to get on BL.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    I haven't seen one at Target in my area, and the shelves at TRU and Wal-Mart have been well-stocked.
  • SweepyDSweepyD USMember Posts: 78
    edited June 2016
    I've seen the Disney series in Walmart and Target, though it was for a single day.

    Bought a few at walmart for my wife and we had to go back in the store and saw a couple in the self checkout with the remainder of the whole box...

    Target had a box worth and got a couple more there, then a few days later went back and none left.

    I have to agree that it seems people are just jacking whole boxes upon arrival, but who knows might just be a "cheap" lego buy for the kids and since its Disney it is an even easier sell to the parents/buyers.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,620
    I have seen Disney CMF series at LEGO stores, LDC, and TRU. Have not seen them at Target, but really I have not been looking much for these to be honest. If anything the local Targets near me will likely get them in about 30 days after everyone else as that is what occurred with Series 15
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I'm not in stores a lot.  My wife does most of the shopping.  I mean, leave it to the experts!  :-)  
    In my limited travels to retail stores I found them at my TRU first (about a month ago), then my Target the following week.  Have not found any since.  TRU had about 50, Target about 30.  So, neither had lots.  
    I'm not convinced they are being bought up in whole boxes and stockpiled.  It could be that there's limited supply and a lot of customers are buying them up several at a time. Also, even if people are buying them by the whole box they still may not be stockpiling.  They may be eBay sellers (they are definitely selling at a markup right now). 
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,960
    I have only seen them at two Targets and a Lego store. 
    The first Target had about 14 about two weeks before they were released, and I never saw them again. The other Target, I lucked out and found a set and extra aliens. I did not find them at any other Target or Walmart. The experience at my Lego store... Most people were buying them for kids, themselves, and we're going for sets or specific characters. They were not resellers. I would say at least 1/2 were first time minifig buyers based on comments about how do you figure out what is inside. 
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Not unlike with the FB, I'm certain the number of these being hoarded (boxes and/or packs) are but a % of a % of the total out there.  In other words, the demand will overwhelm the supply.  The only way to diffuse these from climbing, a lot, is for Lego to offer them in perpetuity.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    The question of the day remains, buy more cases / sets or not. I have one extra set and several extra figures I personally like and think will have a draw down the road-Cheshire Cat, Alice, Maleficent and Ursula specifically. I'm just gunshy about going too heavy. Of course, this is the same person that has something like 50 hot dog guys and unicorn girls so I don't necessarily have any great insights.
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720

    I bought this at a yard sale for $1, is it custom made or from a set? 
    kiki180703
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,649
    edited June 2016
    ^ Part of Set #30058
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720
    @ColoradoBricks thank you!
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,261
    So has the old VW Beetle price dropped significantly since the new one was revealed? Would be interesting to compare this against the WV Toy Shop which was a direct re-issue and the Beetles are 100% different in build.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Too early to tell right?  But worth watching over the next month or so.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Not unlike with the FB, I'm certain the number of these being hoarded (boxes and/or packs) are but a % of a % of the total out there.  In other words, the demand will overwhelm the supply.  The only way to diffuse these from climbing, a lot, is for Lego to offer them in perpetuity.
    You mean like the Sydney Opera House or the Tower Bridge?
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    pharmjod said:
    I agree, however I believe LEGO and Disney will produce these in numbers we've never seen before. I stand by my prediction that we may still be seeing these in stores by Christmas. Heck, we may see them up until series 2 eventually comes out.
    This is my feeling as well.  I have one set and will only get a few spare figures sometime when I find them on-sale.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Not unlike with the FB, I'm certain the number of these being hoarded (boxes and/or packs) are but a % of a % of the total out there.  In other words, the demand will overwhelm the supply.  The only way to diffuse these from climbing, a lot, is for Lego to offer them in perpetuity.
    You mean like the Sydney Opera House or the Tower Bridge?
    Not. at. all.

    I was referring to the Disney CMFs, for which there is, and will be for a very long time, great and widespread demand.  I made a comparison to the FB because a) it's a modular and b) it's a fire station, both of which promote its demand for a very long time.  The TB and SOH are a whole other, much less exciting discussion.
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,892
    Dimensions Wave 1 - have any of these retired yet? If not, we might all of them officially retire together...
  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    edited June 2016
    I noticed that all of the Wave 1 Level Packs on Amazon are only available through 3rd party vendors. (Correction: It looks like Dr. Who is still available via Amazon)
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Dimensions aren't retiring anytime soon. It's the nature of toys to life. You can still find Skylanders from 4-5 years ago easily. It's not practical to retire them. 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Not unlike with the FB, I'm certain the number of these being hoarded (boxes and/or packs) are but a % of a % of the total out there.  In other words, the demand will overwhelm the supply.  The only way to diffuse these from climbing, a lot, is for Lego to offer them in perpetuity.
    You mean like the Sydney Opera House or the Tower Bridge?
    Not. at. all.

    I was referring to the Disney CMFs, for which there is, and will be for a very long time, great and widespread demand.  I made a comparison to the FB because a) it's a modular and b) it's a fire station, both of which promote its demand for a very long time.  The TB and SOH are a whole other, much less exciting discussion.
    I was just kidding...kind of. I have never understood how large exclusive sets like the SOH and TB can be sold by Lego for so long (what seems like in perpetuity). They both have a lot of parts to produce, they take up a lot of shelf space in the stores, and I have to assume (as you said) that they are much less exciting after being out so long (which translates into sales). The only answer I can come up with is that TLG overproduced them in the first place. Has anyone on this board purchased either of these sets in recent memory?
    legomental
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Farmer_John said:

    The only answer I can come up with is that TLG overproduced them in the first place.
    As there are US boxes with at least two different part counts, that seems unlikely - there have been multiple production runs.
    they take up a lot of shelf space in the stores
    For brand stores in particular, the last thing that seems to be on their mind is shelf space. If it was a problem, you could probably double what was available in most of them.
    they are much less exciting after being out so long
    Most people who know about them and want one will have got one, if only because their retirement has long been predicted. That means that buyers may well be people who have not known about them.

    There's a constant stream of new customers. When their kids get to a certain age, parents visit toy stores, and different departments of them, and find these sorts of sets. They're impressive at the best of times, but particularly if you compare them with what was around 20 years ago. It's also not a toy, but a model. And various other things. Sold!

    It takes a long time for those sorts of sales to dry up completely. It's also a market that TLG seem to be positively fostering.
    catwrangler
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    TigerMoth said:
    Farmer_John said:

    The only answer I can come up with is that TLG overproduced them in the first place.
    As there are US boxes with at least two different part counts, that seems unlikely - there have been multiple production runs.
    they take up a lot of shelf space in the stores
    For brand stores in particular, the last thing that seems to be on their mind is shelf space. If it was a problem, you could probably double what was available in most of them.
    they are much less exciting after being out so long
    Most people who know about them and want one will have got one, if only because their retirement has long been predicted. That means that buyers may well be people who have not known about them.

    There's a constant stream of new customers. When their kids get to a certain age, parents visit toy stores, and different departments of them, and find these sorts of sets. They're impressive at the best of times, but particularly if you compare them with what was around 20 years ago. It's also not a toy, but a model. And various other things. Sold!

    It takes a long time for those sorts of sales to dry up completely. It's also a market that TLG seem to be positively fostering.
    Of course there have been multiple runs on almost all Lego sets. It's what TLG does when they produce a set. And of course there's a market for these sets; albeit it's now a small one. The question is whether the sales of SOH and TB are doing so well that another set (e.g., Big Ben, etc) shouldn't replace their spot on the shelf, in inventory, or in production? I seriously doubt it. Neither of us has the sales data to support our respective hypotheses; I'm only basing my comments on the chatter (or lack thereof) in Lego discussion threads across the internet related to the SOH and TB. In short, they're stale.

    If TLG isn't concerned about shelf space, then they're the only B&M store in the world that isn't. Shelf space is a finite quantity, and it's used as a measure of the store's profitability. The shelves in the three Lego stores I've been to recently are full from floor to ceiling, and even still they don't have every currently available set on their shelves (roughly 750 available for purchase based on Lego [email protected]). If as you say 1) "the last thing that seems to be on their (TLG's) mind is shelf space," and 2) "there's a constant stream of new customers," why would TLG squander the chance to increase their revenue by having empty shelf space in their stores? If there are stores that have the ability to effectively double their shelf space (while still keeping the store looking clean), then I'm sure TLG would love to know about it.

    Are the SOH and TB neat models/toys? Sure they are. Have they overstayed their welcome? Yes...absolutely!

    legomental
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2016
    Here's a quote from the Brickset news article on GotG2: "A major emphasis will be placed on children ages 6-11. Leading toy partner Hasbro is on board with a range of action figures and role play products based on the new film, while LEGO adds to its lineup with new construction sets."

    Have to wonder what this will do for resale value on the first run of Guardians of the Galaxy sets. If the second movie is as good as the first, then I expect those holding GotG1 sets will come out pretty well. Personally, I liked both the movie and the sets and am excited to see what TLG whips up. A UCS Milano would be awesome!
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Farmer_John said:

    The question is whether the sales of SOH and TB are doing so well that another set (e.g., Big Ben, etc) shouldn't replace their spot on the shelf
    I suspect Big Ben will drive an increase in sales of Tower Bridge for a while. As for the Opera House, it hasn't been around that much longer than most sets.
    If TLG isn't concerned about shelf space, then they're the only B&M store in the world that isn't.
    Brand stores were originally supposed to be there primarily to sell the brand, not the product. They're one of the few stores to do that, too.
    Shelf space is a finite quantity, and it's used as a measure of the store's profitability.
    Different locations and different attitudes perhaps? Most of those I've been in have also had lots of empty floor space. Maybe once a year they'll use it for extra products.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    TigerMoth said:
    I suspect Big Ben will drive an increase in sales of Tower Bridge for a while. As for the Opera House, it hasn't been around that much longer than most sets.

    Brand stores were originally supposed to be there primarily to sell the brand, not the product. They're one of the few stores to do that, too.

    Different locations and different attitudes perhaps? Most of those I've been in have also had lots of empty floor space. Maybe once a year they'll use it for extra products.
    The Tower Bridge was released in October 2010, so it's been out for almost 6 years (which is an eternity in terms of Lego product availability). The SOH was released in September 2013, so it's almost been 3 years for the set.

    Agree that Big Ben should drive more interest in the Tower Bridge (at least for those who don't already have it). Conversely, those that already have the Tower Bridge will be ponying up for the Big Ben. I have the Tower Bridge, but haven't purchased the SOH. I do like the SOH; it's just a matter of priorities. Big Ben recently became a higher priority for me than the SOH, and that's how it's gone with the SOH for me since it was released.

    Our local Lego store does have a reasonable amount of floor space, but I almost wonder if it's partially to inhibit shoplifters (based on some of the anti-shoplifting measures TRU has taken). The Lego store employees often roll out tables with discounted/damaged sets into this area or have other activities for Lego club or monthly mini-builds. The floor space appears to be quickly used up when they do have some their extracurricular events though.

  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Farmer_John said:

    The Tower Bridge was released in October 2010, so it's been out for almost 6 years (which is an eternity in terms of Lego product availability). The SOH was released in September 2013, so it's almost been 3 years for the set.
    I know how long they've been around. In the case of Tower Bridge, I got it the day before it was released - at a discount too! It's unusual for being around so long. Sydney Opera House, on the other hasn't really been around for an excessive time; most things are around for two years, but longer periods are quite common - Place Cinema and Ewok Village are both from 2013.
    Conversely, those that already have the Tower Bridge will be ponying up for the Big Ben.
    You do realise that neither of those names are ever prefixed by a definite article?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2016
    .
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,480
    TigerMoth said:

    Conversely, those that already have the Tower Bridge will be ponying up for the Big Ben.
    You do realise that neither of those names are ever prefixed by a definite article?
    Yes they are, depending on what follows ...

    What is that model of Tower Bridge?

    It is the Tower Bridge set released by LEGO.


    pharmjodkiki180703
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    CCC said:

    It is the Tower Bridge set released by LEGO.
    If you want to pedantic, the article belongs to "set".
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494
    edited June 2016

    With the result that, by using "the" before either "Tower Bridge" or "Big Ben," the careful writer is able to indicate that she is referring to the Lego set rather than to the actual structure. Of course, were she in a forum devoted to building objects from matchsticks, she might not be referring to a Lego set at all.... :-)

    I successfully resisted all impulses to buy the Tower Bridge set before the Big Ben set came out and people noticed that it is at very nearly the same scale as TB. I still haven't bought TB, but my willpower is stretched to the limit. I think this will be a very expensive summer for me. (Doesn't help that I'm also getting edgy about buying Ewok Village, not because I like Ewoks (or even Star Wars, particularly) but because I still see the set as a shortcut towards a Lothlorien MOC.)

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,480
    Yet the name is prefixed by it, which you said wasn't possible. Anyway, last time I went to London, I saw Tower Bridge. Yes, the Tower Bridge.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    CCC said:

    Yet the name is prefixed by it, which you said wasn't possible.
    "Set" is prefixed by "the". Prefixed means attaching; in this case it's attached to "set".
    CCC said:
    Yet the name is prefixed by it, which you said wasn't possible. Anyway, last time I went to London, I saw Tower Bridge. Yes, the Tower Bridge.
    Cringe. No.

    In any case, you know darn well that some of our American friends tend to "bend" names of things here. There may be good reasons, but it doesn't tend to be looked on too favourably. It therefore seemed reasonable to advise someone of the way things actually are.
    sklamb said:

    Doesn't help that I'm also getting edgy about buying Ewok Village, not because I like Ewoks (or even Star Wars, particularly) but because I still see the set as a shortcut towards a Lothlorien MOC.

    For some reason, I had you pegged in that camp. Dunno why.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    edited June 2016
    TigerMoth said:
    CCC said:
    It is the Tower Bridge set released by LEGO.
    If you want to pedantic, the article belongs to "set".
    You Kant be serious.

    Welcome to Matrix.  Welcome to the Matrix.  I'm sure the latter has a better ring to it.


  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494
    edited June 2016

    @TigerMoth - probably for the same reason that computers can deduce one's entire online career from a day's worth of likes/dislikes on Facebook. (One of the many reasons why I've never joined Facebook!) Also, I may have mentioned my intentions towards EV before, once or twice; it was the first thing that my rational brain suggested after the "Wow!" of first seeing promotional photos of that set.

    Any way, wrenching the thread back on-topic (though why bother?) I strongly suspect both TB and EV are likely to retire soon and will be steady gainers on the secondary market once they are retired. Shame on me if I'm left scrambling to buy second-hand sets after the fact....

  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494
    TigerMoth said:
    CCC said:
    Anyway, last time I went to London, I saw Tower Bridge. Yes, the Tower Bridge.
    Cringe. No.

    In any case, you know darn well that some of our American friends tend to "bend" names of things here. There may be good reasons, but it doesn't tend to be looked on too favourably. It therefore seemed reasonable to advise someone of the way things actually are.
    Something to consider--there are places (my personal opinion of said places being quite irrelevant; they do exist) where copies of famous world landmarks are displayed for the admiration of tourists. This may explain why an idiom has developed in (mostly spoken, but capable of expression in written) English which distinguishes between a copy and a genuine article--as demonstrated, quite neatly, by CCC. Why cringe?

  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    SumoLego said:

    You Kant be serious.
    You silly Kan...

    :-)

    (Does that work stateside?)
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343

    Lordy...I remember the grammar police bringing up definite and indefinite articles some time ago
    It has nothing to do with grammar; it's simply the name of the thing.

    Or come to that, the name of the set.
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