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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    That's a lot of asshat.
    Is it a ten-gallon asshat?
    kiki180703VorpalRyu
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^ This happened to me a couple of months ago. LEGO rep was walking around checking inventories, taking notes, making calls. Then suddenly, she says "can I ask you a few questions?" Pretty cool experience. She asked things like how much my family spends on LEGO, what sets we like, where do we typically shop. I was honest with her and said "actually, not at TRU too much, the markup is ridiculous considering the Target less than 5 miles away has most of the same stuff." Needless to say, she didn't disagree.
    Yeah, I can't figure out how my TRU makes any sort of money off of Lego except on the rare occasion they have a good deal. There's a Walmart and a Target within a two mile radius of it, plus another Walmart and Target about 5 minutes away on the north side of town and yet another Walmart and Target about 10-15 minutes to the southeast of town (yep, somehow we got 3 of each, plus 2 Kmarts).
    You meant, how do they make any money off of Lego sold to people like me...  Most people who purchase at TRU aren't people like those around here.

    What Sumo said, plus you should actually walk into your TRU the week leading up to Xmas and see how barren the shelves are.  Also, don't discount the gift card effect.  Little Timmy goes in with his $50 gift card from grandma, and neither he, nor his parents will likely think twice about getting the best bang for that $50.  After all, $50 on a gift card isn't real cash, right?
    SumoLegokiki180703VorpalRyudougtsLegoFanTexas
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    SumoLego said:
    Civilians don't spend the time to do intense price-checking.

    And it's not like TRU advertises: "We charge a premium for Lego for no good reason."
    I sure advertise it for them when I see a clueless parent roaming the aisles. "Go to Target, it's $10 cheaper." I've received a countless thank yous over the years. 
    VorpalRyuSumoLego
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    When I was a kid my dad went to TRU because it's a designated toy store and I guess he assumed going there gave him the best chance to get everything he needs in one trip.  Ironic because they were always sold out of the good toys and there was plenty of other stores my mom would go to that usually had things in stock and at lower prices.

    TRU probably stays in business from false logic like that.  It's surprising how many people don't bother planning their shopping well at all.  The rush the days before Christmas proves there's a ton of people that could plan a lot better.
    VorpalRyu
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Dougout said:
    TRU probably stays in business from false logic like that.  It's surprising how many people don't bother planning their shopping well at all.  The rush the days before Christmas proves there's a ton of people that could plan a lot better.
    Yes. I think Loss Leaders (and Black Friday sales) is based on a false logic too. The customer will get an extremely good deal on an item or two, then not pay much attention to prices.  

    A retail store simply wants to get you into their store (which means they are not in a competitor's).  If you come in for a Loss Leader there is a high probability customers will stay and buy more items.  Not 100% of the time, but obviously enough of the time for it to work in the retailers favor.  

    Also, TRU is a toy exclusive store.  The only one I know of.  I'm sure a lot of people go to TRU because it can be a one stop shop, more so than other retailers.  The retail model TRU uses obviously works, else they would change to something else.

    The buying and selling at Christmas is extremely interesting.  There are so many perspectives and variables.  What is the customer thinking?  How much logic do they apply when making purchases?  How much is emotion?  Do people just get tired, give in, and just buy something, anything.  Some people like zooming hither and yon for a small discount.  Some don't want to spend the gas, time, and hassle to get that item at a discount.  Very interesting stuff.
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    edited November 2015
    If we all planned our shopping, then there would be no sales...

    And in related news, it would appear our friend the VW Bus #10220 will continue to defy retirement a bit longer.  (The Mini Cooper got the same box redesign as well.)


    kiki180703VorpalRyuPitfall69
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Everyone on this forum have a Happy Thanksgiving and spend quality time with friends and family!  Oh yeah, and finding LEGO bargains on Black Friday and beyond!
    Ronyarkiki180703madforLEGOChubblesdougtsSumoLegokhmellymel
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I still think VW Van is done this year, or at least it is due to EOL soon, if not already. I guess like anything else it could stick around though, but I still do not think that box redesign is a basis toward a set sticking around.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I dunno.  Logic would dictate that if it were on the way out soon, they would not want to invest the money in new packaging.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Unless they have found that new packaging would save them money in storage and shipping, even for soon to retire sets
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    Maybe it's just me, but I think folks like big boxes if they're spending $100.00+ on a set.

    Even though the huge boxest are completely wasteful and makes box preservation exponentially more difficult.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    ^ Not sure why auto-correct decided 'boxest' is a word.  French, perhaps?
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited November 2015
    ^some who doesn't like boxes? The derogatory actions of a boxophobic? Or would that be boxist? 
    Maybe it just means the most box out of all the boxes. 
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    as I said. MTT soon to retire 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited November 2015
    uriel said:
    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    as I said. MTT soon to retire 
    IMO 'Retiring soon' does not mean much, and is very subjective. They have had sets in the past with that label that stayed around for at least 6 more months. The one thing is can do is give some idea that these sets, by 'LEGOs standards', will eventually EOL.

    As for the MTT, Like most SW sets lately I doubt it will do gangbusters after EOL. It is funny also how SW, in particular, keep going up in price for smaller and smaller sets. Could SW sets do well post EOL? Depends on what people mean by 'do well'. Im sure the rather expensive ones could do well (ones over 199.99 USD) but even then I was leery of getting any more than one Ewok Village.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    And other things don't get that label... Town Hall.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    I've bought 4 MTTs for now (with 40% discount) and split the sets. kept the bricks and selling the minifigures and the c3po polys i got buying them. So far I've earn a bit of money and got a LOT of great brown bricks. But now, seeing this, I plan on buying one or two for resale. They are going for 44 gbp here and I find that to be good value :) And I'll get the movie tickets :D
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    jeeez the price of the 30320 poly is skyrocketing :D I was doubting the guy who bought 100 of em from be for 10 gbp each when he said its for resale :D
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    edited November 2015
    Looks like MetalBeards Seacow #70810 has now retired - it was still there yesterday, at least in the DE shop. It was obvious it was going to go soon, but it also did not get the 'retiring soon' label. I guess I missed out on that one then.

    So what's next? Tumbler / Ewok Village / Sydney Opera House?

  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    EW and SOP for me..  Tumbler has another year IMO
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Ewok Village has a note on [email protected] that more are coming in January. Doubt Sydney will be gone before Tower. Both have at least a year left, and Sydney probably 2 or more. 
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^^^sea cow retired in the UK too.  Glad I didn't miss that one as it's a fantastic build.  My money is on Tumbler going, I know it would be early compared to some but with the new wave of batman and a new Batman D2C 'rumoured' I can't see it surviving long.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    edited November 2015
    I thought the same, considering it was blown up (twice) in the Nolan movies - the latter not even being painted black and the new movie has a new and more 'classic' looking batmobile.




    I think the SOH may go prior to the Tower Bridge, considering its been in the latest 2 sales with the EW. My guess is it is probably not as popular as the TB.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think one of the biggest head-fakes I've experienced from TLG over the past couple of years was the deal they had last summer on #10220 Volkswagen Camper with the free polybag mini-Camper. The mini-Campers were going for almost $40 by themselves and its big brother #10220 had already been out for 3 years. I thought it was a goner for sure, but it's still going strong. I'm betting it will be gone by the end of 2016 though.

    I think the biggest surprise EOL over the same span was the Town Hall going with the Grand Emporium. I expect the TH to continue rising, although it seems to have stalled lately.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Wouldn't surprise me at all if we see the Town Hall make another appearance soon.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Hurry! Buy all the LEGO sets you can. They will all retire soon*!!!

    *Soon is relative and we have no way of knowing.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I think one of the biggest head-fakes I've experienced from TLG over the past couple of years was the deal they had last summer on #10220 Volkswagen Camper with the free polybag mini-Camper. The mini-Campers were going for almost $40 by themselves and its big brother #10220 had already been out for 3 years. I thought it was a goner for sure, but it's still going strong. I'm betting it will be gone by the end of 2016 though.

    I think the biggest surprise EOL over the same span was the Town Hall going with the Grand Emporium. I expect the TH to continue rising, although it seems to have stalled lately.
    It is not just TH, Many set prices after EOL seem to have stalled lately. Not sure if it is because of some economic issues, or the idea LEGO could redo more sets after Winter Village Toy shop came back out or what.

    I do agree that VW van would be a logical retirement about now, they extended it and DS, according to rumor, last year. Will be interesting to see it 'extended' again.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The amazing thing to me is that Death Star isn't just still out, but that it continues to sell.

    Just looking at Amazon, the #10188 Death Star is outselling #75059 Sandcrawler by perhaps 4 to 1.

    Looking at all the expensive $200+ sets, Death Star continues to be one of the best selling LEGO has.

    And it is now more than 7 years old!
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselybrickupdateRainstorm26SumoLego
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    It is not just TH, Many set prices after EOL seem to have stalled lately. Not sure if it is because of some economic issues, or the idea LEGO could redo more sets after Winter Village Toy shop came back out or what
    Too many resellers causing a change in the supply/demand equation.
  • maniacmaniac Yorkshire, UKMember Posts: 822
    edited November 2015
    #21301 Birds is done in UK.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,766
    The amazing thing to me is that Death Star isn't just still out, but that it continues to sell.

    Just looking at Amazon, the #10188 Death Star is outselling #75059 Sandcrawler by perhaps 4 to 1.

    Looking at all the expensive $200+ sets, Death Star continues to be one of the best selling LEGO has.

    And it is now more than 7 years old!
    New fans of LEGO don't know how old each of them are and with 20% more pieces, almost twice as many figures and the DS being a much more iconic model, it is no surprise to me which would outsell the other.  It's by far better value for money.
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • William_TownsleyWilliam_Townsley Perth, Scotland Member Posts: 880
    maniac said:
    #21301 Birds is done in UK.
    *Gulp* Does anyone know what time Lego Store Glasgow opens I need to check if the have one left.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    maniac said:
    #21301 Birds is done in UK.
    *Gulp* Does anyone know what time Lego Store Glasgow opens I need to check if the have one left.

    It's been gone a week on [email protected] It would surprise me if they had any as this set has been pretty scarce the last few months. Be interesting to see what happens with this one. Unique set, good price range, great build, limited availability,  and an 11 month production run, It would appear to have everything going for it. That might mean nothing though.Only time will tell.
  • William_TownsleyWilliam_Townsley Perth, Scotland Member Posts: 880
    21301 MISB on eBay just sold for £59.99 plus £4 to ship 
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    maniac said:
    #21301 Birds is done in UK.
    *Gulp* Does anyone know what time Lego Store Glasgow opens I need to check if the have one left.
    Was in there on Friday, no birds left
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    I think one of the biggest head-fakes I've experienced from TLG over the past couple of years was the deal they had last summer on #10220 Volkswagen Camper with the free polybag mini-Camper. The mini-Campers were going for almost $40 by themselves and its big brother #10220 had already been out for 3 years. I thought it was a goner for sure, but it's still going strong. I'm betting it will be gone by the end of 2016 though.


    Ahem, Brother! Still have the ten 10220's still sitting in the attic from that "deal".
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    #70143 Brick Bounty is showing as Sold Out at [email protected] United States of America.  But is available, and widely discounted on other retailers websites.  Just an interesting tidbit.
    Mordoor
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    ^ Same with the Ghost
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    #70143 Brick Bounty is showing as Sold Out at [email protected] United States of America.  But is available, and widely discounted on other retailers websites.  Just an interesting tidbit.
    Yeah yoyo.com had a sale for 20% off three LEGO sets, and Brickbounty was one of them, I just could not pull the trigger on them though.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    #70143 Brick Bounty is showing as Sold Out at [email protected] United States of America.  But is available, and widely discounted on other retailers websites.  Just an interesting tidbit.
    I wonder if [email protected] shows that to help retailers move their inventories first.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    edited November 2015
    I sincerely doubt that.  Lego gets their wholesale prices when the product is ordered.  [email protected] is an entirely different sales channel and maintains its own inventories.

    Plus, Lego sells itself - the company doesn't need to engage in chicanery to move some third-party vendor's product.

    (TRU sells their product above retail!)
    madforLEGOVorpalRyukiki180703
  • KralaskanKralaskan Member Posts: 208
    Does anyone know why the entire JW category is completly gone from the Lego shopping website? 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Kralaskan said:
    Does anyone know why the entire JW category is completly gone from the Lego shopping website? 
    LEGO.com can have issues like this as while the site may be better than in the past, it is still not a great site and things like this occur, though typically only a set here or there disappears
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,912
    One of the Christmas Seasonal sets disappeared for a awhile.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    Looks like #75052 is on its way out.  Any thoughts on this set.  Seems like it could be a winner long term?
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,345
    ^An iconic scene, Dewback, 4 exclusive figs, Star Wars Original Trilogy ? 
    Nothing to see here, move along...
    3stackshskiki180703pharmjod
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Legoboy said:
    The amazing thing to me is that Death Star isn't just still out, but that it continues to sell.

    Just looking at Amazon, the #10188 Death Star is outselling #75059 Sandcrawler by perhaps 4 to 1.

    Looking at all the expensive $200+ sets, Death Star continues to be one of the best selling LEGO has.

    And it is now more than 7 years old!
    New fans of LEGO don't know how old each of them are and with 20% more pieces, almost twice as many figures and the DS being a much more iconic model, it is no surprise to me which would outsell the other.  It's by far better value for money.
    That is a fair point...  but look at it on the shelf (mine has been there for 5 years now), it is really showing some age...

    The minifigs show it the most, and I'd be concerned at some point if I was TLG that it no longer shows off their best foot.  It is quite different now to all the new sets, from the quality of the instructions (the book is physically good, but the design is old) to the figure design, to the box itself.

    While this is not their most pressing issue, how long can they continue to make something so out of sync?  I have suggested in the past year that if it continues to sell, it might well justify a Mk-2 version, updated with new figures, new instructions, a new box, etc. to give it a bit of a kick and make it more like current sets.

    Of course, that might harm the value of any existing sets in reseller hands, but of course TLG isn't likely to care.  :)

    So what do you think?  Another 3 years as it stands, or an updated, refresh Mk-2 version?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I think everyone is assuming the next DS will be a minifig scale one, but what if it is a a display piece like the DS II from many years ago? Or if it is another version and not one based around Episode 4?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I think everyone is assuming the next DS will be a minifig scale one?
    That would make it the size of a small moon!
    FollowsCloselyLegoboyPitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I think everyone is assuming the next DS will be a minifig scale one?
    That would make it the size of a small moon!
    Yeah, yeah, I mean one with minifigure style sets in it, sorry. So would it be like #10188?
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