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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    pharmjod said:
    I don't, but many people use them to keep up selling minimums for sites like Amazon and eBay to be able to sell during Christmas on Amazon and keep power seller status on eBay.

    I only bought 15 of the gallimimus trap poly. I wish I'd have gotten 100.
    Yeah every once in a while there is a poly that goes for a lot.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,159
    VorpalRyu said:
    It all started because of some dad getting outraged over the Black Edition Slave Leia Action Figure. Clearly he lives under a rock not to know anything about the character, because one of our friends who has never seen a single SW movie was laughing at the Fox29 story, thinking it was a parody news article at first. Even she knew it was a costume in the 'last' of the old movies when the 'Princess' was captured by the huge 'slug alien' gangster guy. As for the aiming it at four year olds, does no-one involved in the article understand that the ages 4+ is a safety recommendation. All round, for everyone involved in that non-story, EPIC-ÜBER-FAIL!

    Sadly that's one of my local stations, and most of the local stations out of there tend to dig up 'non-stories' like this one for the evening news every night.

    Meanwhile, there's the pending local government pension disaster, but who cares when they can complain about an action figure!
    madforLEGOVorpalRyuPitfall69kiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    VorpalRyu said:
    It all started because of some dad getting outraged over the Black Edition Slave Leia Action Figure. Clearly he lives under a rock not to know anything about the character, because one of our friends who has never seen a single SW movie was laughing at the Fox29 story, thinking it was a parody news article at first. Even she knew it was a costume in the 'last' of the old movies when the 'Princess' was captured by the huge 'slug alien' gangster guy. As for the aiming it at four year olds, does no-one involved in the article understand that the ages 4+ is a safety recommendation. All round, for everyone involved in that non-story, EPIC-ÜBER-FAIL!

    Sadly that's one of my local stations, and most of the local stations out of there tend to dig up 'non-stories' like this one for the evening news every night.

    Meanwhile, there's the pending local government pension disaster, but who cares when they can complain about an action figure!
    The news media (conservative and liberal) drudges up stories like this to keep the sheep being sheep. God forbid if the general masses actually thought about the real issues going in in the world, let alone the US.
    VorpalRyumadejp86LegoFanTexas
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    ^ I didn't read this post - too many words, not enough graphics and no lens flare to hold my attention.

    Squirrel!
    Rainstorm26VorpalRyuTechnicNickToc13kiki180703brumeyLegoFanTexas
  • high5debrahigh5debra DetroitMember Posts: 16
    I don't know if people saw this or not, but over the past weekend in the US, LEGO stores had a promotion of a free 70749 Enter The Serpent with a purchase of 70751 Temple of Airjitzu.  I'd never seen a promotion this good before.  A free $60 set albeit with the purchase of a $200 set seemed too good to pass up.  I (and my boys) like the Ninjago theme well enough, but probably not enough to warrant a $200 Temple.  (Our big $150+ sets tend to be Modular or Star Wars)  So I bought it with the intention of reselling the Temple at some point.  

    I'm sure I could sell it now for $190 (although, I think I saw it going for over $220 on ebay for some strange reason this past week).  But my question is: do you think this is the kind of set that will go for $250-$300 a few years after retirement?  Does this have the lasting appeal of a Haunted House or Star Wars set to be worth hanging onto for 3-4 more years?  Or does the "kid-themedness" of it reduce the future value?  

    (Although, truth be told, the more I look at it, the more I want to make a birthday present of it sometime down the road.  It really is beautiful.....)
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    I don't know if people saw this or not, but over the past weekend in the US, LEGO stores had a promotion of a free 70749 Enter The Serpent with a purchase of 70751 Temple of Airjitzu.  I'd never seen a promotion this good before.  A free $60 set albeit with the purchase of a $200 set seemed too good to pass up.  I (and my boys) like the Ninjago theme well enough, but probably not enough to warrant a $200 Temple.  (Our big $150+ sets tend to be Modular or Star Wars)  So I bought it with the intention of reselling the Temple at some point.  

    I'm sure I could sell it now for $190 (although, I think I saw it going for over $220 on ebay for some strange reason this past week).  But my question is: do you think this is the kind of set that will go for $250-$300 a few years after retirement?  Does this have the lasting appeal of a Haunted House or Star Wars set to be worth hanging onto for 3-4 more years?  Or does the "kid-themedness" of it reduce the future value?  

    (Although, truth be told, the more I look at it, the more I want to make a birthday present of it sometime down the road.  It really is beautiful.....)
    I don't see the Ninjago branding hurting it one bit. After all, Monster Fighters was just as wacky and kid-oriented, but that didn't seem to hurt the Haunted House sales. And much like the Haunted House or even Medieval Market Village, the Temple of Airjitzu is more grounded and less conflict-driven than the rest of the theme it's a part of. This helps boost its appeal with adults.

    Ninjago's tremendous popularity also shouldn't be discounted. I've already seen pics online of parents who are letting their kids build (or help build) the set. So while the set is designed for fourteen years and up, the market for it probably extends to parents of younger children. There are even a fairly substantial number of teenage and adult fans of Ninjago, especially since the theme's nearly five years old now. A kid who was nine when the theme began would be 14 or 15 today.

    I'm not saying the Temple of Airjitzu will be setting any kind of records for aftermarket value, but I think it should accrue in value about as well as any big exclusive set. Possibly better than some, since it includes four figs with new, exclusive designs and depicts a location we're told will be appearing again in the TV show.

    And I certainly don't see it going down in value. Just this month a new #9446 Destiny's Bounty set sold for $160 on BrickLink — that's a more than 75% increase from its 2012 price of $90! Granted, that was a regular issue set so wasn't on shelves as long as an exclusive like this might be.

    Personally, if your kids are Ninjago fans, I'd encourage you to keep the set for personal use (whether you crack it open now or save it a few years). It's a phenomenal design and a great building experience. It's even got plenty of play value that I'm sure kids would be able to appreciate.
    nexander
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    My personal feeling on this is that the ToA isn't your typical Ninjago set, its moving in on the Creator Modulars territory & is a pretty good starting point for setting up a chinatown/asian section to a Modulars set-up. I'm not exactly looking to stock up on #70751 right now as I have a little more than enough invested in sets around that price point for the moment, but my wife & I are trying to shuffle the Lego budget around enough that we can potentially pick at least one up for ourselves... I mean the kids, yeah, the kids...
    TheLoneTensorSumoLegoYodaliciousjuggles7xiahna
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950


    VorpalRyuBuriedinBricksYodaliciouskiki180703snowhitie
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    Just heard the weirdest advice, while we were discussing our most recent Lego acquisitions, a friend & I got on to the topic of our growing collections of brick separators. My friend said he had started giving away some them to their neighbours children, as a few of them never get sets with a brick separator. Some complete random in the shop decided to tell my friend that he needs get them back, as not having a brick separator for a set seriously "damages" its "resell" market value & being an "out of box" set, which is already lower than a "mint in box" set's value.
    xiahna
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    The separator is an extra, not part of the build so not really necessary for a second hand set. Although if a random someone is saying that opening boxes damages the resale market value, then they are a reseller first and not a lego fan.

    VorpalRyuprevere
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    I can't imagine it will damage it more than it being open anyway.  I don't think I have ever based a deal for an open box set on whether the brick separator was present (or ever would).  Except maybe palace cinema, because that has a unique (?) green colour.
    VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    Green is also in Horizon Express. Although can still often be picked up for 20-30p on bricklink.

  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    Oh trust me, this random's advice was not wanted & we immediately put it in the 'yeah, sure, right buddy' file. We told him like three times, if we've unboxed the set we have no intention of selling, ever, before my mate told him to not so politely to piss off. Just found it funny to find out that there are some out there like this...
    kiki180703xiahna
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited November 2015
    ^^you are right, and apparently it isn't even nearly unique.. http://brickset.com/sets/containing-part-6000102
    Can't see green separators doing that well on the aftermarket then ;)
    VorpalRyu
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    Can I derail this discussion to just say that the perfection with which the SW Advent Calendar fits into a USPS 1095 regional rate box has affirmed my belief in the Almighty?

    There is a God, and he ships USPS.
    wagnerml2
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    MattsWhat said:
    ^^you are right, and apparently it isn't even nearly unique.. http://brickset.com/sets/containing-part-6000102
    Can't see green separators doing that well on the aftermarket then ;)
    Bear in mind that most of those sets listed as including the green separator included the old-style green separator when they were released. It's possible that if you bought one of these sets from a later production run it'd include the new-style green separator, but it's not something you could reliably depend on, so I think it's still fair to say that the green separators, while not unique to those two Creator Expert sets, are still fairly rare.
    MattsWhat
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    I do not see those ask for the brick separator as having a complete set. That being said I guess there is always the chance, but if fail to see how no brick separator would seriously damage the price of a set in the aftermarket.

    It is funny to hear some of the absurd comments that come out of these 'johnny come lately' resellers that think they know what they are doing, like people who stocked up on TMNT sets thinking they were going to make a killing on them.
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    I think they sell individual green brick separators at the retail stores.
    VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    Wait until they chrome them, that'll be when they become collectable.

    Although it has been discussed before - if they made them in different colours, I'd collect them all.
    VorpalRyu
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,159
    If I'm buying a 'complete' set that's been opened, I'd prefer to have the brick separator with it, as to me that's part of the completeness factor. I do understand it's not part of the build, but to me it's as much as a part of the complete deal as the instructions and box. That's just my personal preference on it.

    Although considering I don't really buy anything from the reselling market, and prefer to buy sealed anyway if I do, not sure I have to worry about that becoming an issue, and as noted it's a minor one anyway. 
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366

    ^ Don't worry.We won't.

    (Runs to purchase brickseparators.com)

    VorpalRyupharmjodkiki180703GoldchainsSumoLegoVortex
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    With a sideline in laminated instructions?
    pharmjodVorpalRyukiki180703Goldchains
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    JP sets hit Walmart again  I picked up all the #75920 they had (5).  Smart move?  I don't usually get in on quick flips, but the moment got the best of me.
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    I found four about 18 days ago, within 36 hours sold all for a tidy profit (approximately $15 each).  Found three more a week ago, listed for same price, ZERO interest.

    The market got flooded with a re-shipment.  Think I may return these.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    edited November 2015

    I have generally heard that stores are getting 4 or 8.  And with people buying 5 or 4 or 3 at a time,  I think we just have to wait until after black Friday to see them moving at $10 - $15 unit profit again. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    CCC said:
    Wait until they chrome them, that'll be when they become collectable.

    Although it has been discussed before - if they made them in different colours, I'd collect them all.
    I found one with a white rangefinder.

    And one in sausage red.

    Suckas!
    Rainstorm26VorpalRyubandit778LegoboyLostInTranslation
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    edited November 2015
    ^  What number is it?

    Better be a low number... and it should come in a squishable packaging.
    VorpalRyujuggles7bobabricks
  • kiki180703kiki180703 Montreal, CanadaMember Posts: 1,044
    ^^ It should have sausages on it! Everything with sausage is better, isn't it @SumoLego ;o)
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Has the Technic crane #42009 retired?

    Sold out in the US a few weeks back and now call to check availability on Europe [email protected]

    Most of the UK retailers are also showing sold out.
     
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    *hides cans of spray paint* I've got gold, silver & black chrome brick separators! I win! lol
    TheLoneTensorMynattxiahna
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Has the Technic crane #42009 retired?

    Sold out in the US a few weeks back and now call to check availability on Europe [email protected]

    Most of the UK retailers are also showing sold out.
     
    Yeah, I think from the lack of freaked out responses shows the waning interest lately in sets going out of stock. I wanted to get a couple but it seems that some sets just are not moving well. I think it could do well but without discounts on those (much of the time in the US) I think it will do well for whoever managed to get them for a decent price, but lately Technic is like many other lines, it seems to take some time for sets to rise in value
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited November 2015
    First, #42009 is still available at TRU and at Amazon (for $178), so not so unavailable it would seem.

    Second, Technic flagships (like this) are among the few large sets that are discountable in the US.  Example of how to take advantage of that, and why having a TRU credit card is useful:

    TRU prices these at $200 in store.
    They send out the occasional 25% off a toy coupon
    + the Thursday/Sat 10% TRU credit card discount
    + the occasional $100 TRU gift card for $85 on Ebay
    Final cost: $114.75 + tax.  Not bad.
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    How would you get the TRU credit card discount and the gift card discount in the same purchase?

    Enquiring minds want to know...
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 494
    edited November 2015
    As long as the credit card is used to partially pay for the item, the discount applies.

    YMMV as with everything when it comes to TRU but I was able to use a 20% off coupon with #75059 Sandcrawler- that was a significant saving.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited November 2015
    SumoLego said:
    goshe7 said:
    I resent the greedy wankers who are so obsessed with owning a set they will pay these inflated prices.   Their greed really hurts the pure-of-heart AFOL.
    I find this confusing.  Not sure how someone who is 'greedy' pays inflated prices.  My impression of greed would be to pay the lowest price... and then sell to someone else for more.
    Or greedy could be those who expect another person to take the risk of purchasing a set pre-EOL, storing it until it's rare and desirable (post-EOL), and then selling it for the original RRP or less. There are all sorts of definitions for the word "greedy."
    dougtsBumblepantsMasterBeefygoshe7
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    As long as the credit card is used to partially pay for the item, the discount applies.

    YMMV as with everything when it comes to TRU but I was able to use a 20% off coupon with #75059 Sandcrawler- that was a significant saving.
    Was this before they took them off the website or did you somehow find one in a store?
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 494
    In store- NYC Times Sq.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    The guy with the cart laughed and told the Mom "Yep, I got 'em all, and they'll be up on e-bay tonight, but I'll sell you that one for $100".
    Didn't happen.
    itsnotme
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    ^^  That guy is an asshole and 100% a dick.

    Merry Festivus, Karma Backlash!
    VorpalRyu
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,550
    I wish he was. And until he showed up, it never occurred to me to be bothered that somebody was buying up all the stock of a particular set. Fiscally, it makes great sense. Many resellers are probably really great folks. Hopefully "Timmy" gets the set he wants elsewhere.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    You're close enough to Enfield, CT - I think the Lego Secret Service would have taken care of that guy!
    kiki180703
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,751
    Should've just taken one from his cart and said, "That'll be $100 if you want it back".
    kiki180703William_TownsleyVorpalRyuSumoLegoYodaliciouspharmjodjuggles7Sethro3TheBigLegoski
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,817
    @TheLoneTensor ... It was this guy!


    kiki180703VorpalRyuTheLoneTensorFollowsClosely
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    I personally like the "leave one for karma" philosophy.  Take as much as you want, but leave one for the next guy.  Or Timmy.
    juggles7
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    Partial pay $1 on the keypad with CC... Rinse repeat
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    @TheLoneTensor, between two asshats, when the Scooby-Doo stuff first hit shelves here, not one Mystery Mansion or Mystery Machine was available for anyone else. I don't know the exact details, but one couple were swearing & cursing the one that hit Salisbury, Elizabeth, Gawler & possibly a few other locations. From what my wife got out of them, the store staff were unwilling to intervene & advised them to ask the asshat directly, apparently asshat told them if wanted one, check gumtree later.
    xiahna
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