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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Any guesses on how long echo 1 will remain on shelves?  It's been out for a long time (for an ideas set) so it seems retirement should be imminent.  However, it would seem rather stupid to discontinue any time soon with the new GBHQ coming out.  

    Unless LEGO is going to release it again!  Queue evil laughter.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    goshe7 said:
    However, it would seem rather stupid to discontinue any time soon with the new GBHQ coming out.  
    Yeah... For some reason I just don't see this one going anywhere anytime soon. Especially if they advertise that it can be paired with the HQ. 
    SumoLegoPitfall69
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    I grew up with Back to the Future, but I have to say, even back then, there was nowhere near this level of hype. Don't get me wrong: it's a good movie. But all this hype about being some kind of touchstone for a generation is overblown. 
    I disagree.  For me and for most of my late-30 something friends, Back to the Future was an absolute classic movie.  It was one of the few movies that had that perfect mix of action, adventure, romance, and comedy to appeal to everyone -- the type of movie your folks let you watch and enjoyed watching with you because it wasn't overrun with profanity.  The music was also perfect.  I think my folks also loved it because the 1955 years made them nostalgic.  We all waited anxiously for the promised "to be continued"....  

    And as the years went by, I think we all fell back on it more than Ghostbusters, to be honest.  Ghostbusters only re-emerged for me in the  last few years -- I had all but forgotten about it until the pilot of How I Met Your Mother referenced quoting "obscure lines from Ghostbusters" and I thought maybe I should rewatch it if it warranted a reference.

    That said, I agree that the absolute explosion of nostalgia for the movie last week was a bit of a surprise.  I think there's something unique about this movie though -- it doesn't just make us nostalgic for the past; it also makes us nostalgic for our collective imagined future.  We all grew up with it and imagined/assumed we would have flying cars and hoverboards in our future, and now that future is here.  Sobering dose of reality to not have some of that fun, but then I look at my iPhone and iPad and the INTERNET and realize, Great Scott how far have we come?!  This is heavy.  Mainly I am just happy that we moved beyond dot matrix printing technology.

    I also agree that the Ecto 1 is a better set and a clear winner.  You get the vehicle and 4 figures.  The movie will obviously build up demand, as will the firehouse -- but of course this all assumes that the vehicle is discontinued before then.  I'd say LEGO would be stupid to discontinue it before then, but they pulled the Delorean before October 21, 2015...
    paradisiaTwoToneBricks
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,813
    How would one re-boot a time travel movie?  Maybe like Dr. Who?

    Anyway, I don't think it helps that BttF III is nowhere near as beloved as the first two.  It has a Godfather III vibe to it.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    BttF III was atrocious, never bring that up again 
    madforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,813
    ^ Okay.  

    But I think a good sequel would be for Doc Brown and Marty to travel back to the Old West and turn a steam engine into a Time Machine...
    VorpalRyukhmellymel
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    I would like a steam punk train though
    VorpalRyujuggles7kiki180703khmellymel
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Chubbles said:
    I agree about the ecto1, it's got a lot more going for it IMO.  Franchise being rebooted, bigger fan base, GB HQ coming out, it's a much better build than the delorean as well.  Screams aftermarket winner to me.
    It also has not been on sale much in the US to the best of my knowledge, whereas the Deloren was on sale a few times via Amazon and Walmart.
    Funny you mention that, because today it was at Target for $48.99 (woo $1 off), and is now gone.  Still available at most other places though...for now.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    The Ecto-1 will be around a while. I don't see it going anywhere for another 5 years. The BTTF DeLorean may have been on sale from time to time, but soon, there will probably be less DeLorean's out there than Ecto-1's. 

    As far as BTTF; The DeLorean time machine is probably one of most iconic automobile's, at least in the US. The movie was fantastic. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,447
    Pitfall69 said:

    As far as BTTF; The DeLorean time machine is probably one of most iconic automobile's, at least in the US. The movie was fantastic. 
    It's a shame it didn't translate into a good lego set though.

    I'm fairly ambivalent (I'm mid 40s) about the films. I saw 1 and 2 as a kid, but have barely seen them since. I built the lego set, didn't really like it and sold it on.

    As for Ecto-1, I'm fairly similar about the films. I saw them as a kid, seen them a few times since. I built the lego set and it looks great, so I kept it. I cannot see me buying the HQ though.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    #10221 SSD has had a pretty good run but I feel like it might be running out of steam. I have the opportunity to sell three items on eBay without paying either listing or final value fees and I'm itching to offload some. Sell or stay?
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^well the fees saving is going to be the best part of $100 a set, and it's going to take them a while to creep up that much more.  I can't see the new film making a massive difference to these OT sets.  Plus that's a fair amount of money and space tied up at the moment - that's a little bit extra they would need to cover if you kept them sitting around.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    ^ I was a big fan of both BttF & GB, loved the cars, there are still a number of vehicles from that era I'd love to see in bricks... I passed on the DeLorean, not because I think less of it than Ecto-1, but I really didn't think much of the build, unlike the Ecto-1, which I thought was an awesome design.
    xiahna
  • xiahnaxiahna Member Posts: 156
    I would have been happy to pass on both. however I only control a minute percentage of buying power in this household so I was out voted on the Ecto-1. I have a really bad feeling that the scooby doo sets were a very short lived thing. (I do not claim to be right ever but the fact that we can't get them on [email protected] in Australia anymore means...) Oh wait they may just be cutting supply to Aus. It's not like similar things have happened before or anything...
    VorpalRyu
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    I wouldn't count on Scooby Doo being completely gone yet, I just checked the UK site and the theme has been take off the list, but searching Scooby Doo brings up all the sets as temporarily out of stock, I think they've probably just got a new method of sorting themes on the website to hide stuff that's unavailable - considering just how many themes there are it's not a bad idea.


    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Chubbles said:
    BttF III was atrocious, never bring that up again 
    I liked BTTF 3; hated BTTF 2. Just too dark and basically not funny.

    Kind of like the original Indiana Jones trilogy.
    dougtsRennykiki180703ryjay
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The SW Advent Calendar #75097 is showing as "Sold Out." Some of the advent calendars have done okay, and I would think SW Advent calendars would do exceptionally well this year with the movie coming out in less than two months.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    I actually wouldn't mind this SW advent calendar, but I hate that initial price, so I will pass. Do people buy these for more than MSRP years down the road?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    People will be paying more than MSRP in a few weeks. Forget about years down the road.
    BrickaholicFarmer_Johnkiki180703SumoLegoFollowsClosely
  • thedaveyboythedaveyboy Hampshire UKMember Posts: 55
    Have you tried to get last years one?  Check out the prices on Ebay!
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Darth Santa was a nice looking fig
  • nexandernexander Glasgow Member Posts: 897
    I don't know if I should sell last years or not. I was thinking it would be good to have a different one each for the kids but might be worth selling and giving them both this years. Got it cheap last year so wont feel I'm losing out not selling it.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,750
    SumoLego said:
    ^ You could model a dog.
    You're too generous.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I clearly live under a rock, because I hadn't realized that the DeLorean set had exploded in aftermarket value already. LEGO is funny - retiring Haunted House just before Halloween and the holidays, and retiring the DeLorean just before Oct 21. 

    These are the same people that can't find a SINGLE Ideas project to move forward with. 
    Even smart companies make all kinds of small errors that can add up over time. 

    Don't worry, LEGO, we are still BFFs. 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    Delorean has been gone for over a year I think. So not quite just before October 21st 2015.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    pharmjod said:
    Delorean has been gone for over a year I think. So not quite just before October 21st 2015.
    Ah, so the rock I live under was bigger than I thought! :)
    bobabrickskiki180703FollowsCloselyLegoboypharmjodPitfall69MasterBeefy
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 903
    If I only I could go back in time and buy some more :)
    VorpalRyuhoyatables
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Sethro3 said:
    I actually wouldn't mind this SW advent calendar, but I hate that initial price, so I will pass. Do people buy these for more than MSRP years down the road?
    Yes
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Sethro3 said:
    I actually wouldn't mind this SW advent calendar, but I hate that initial price, so I will pass. Do people buy these for more than MSRP years down the road?
    I feel the same way. The advents (especially the SW version) appear to be a poor value to me. I can't imagine paying more than RRP. I bought one for the first time this year bc I wanted to start a new tradition with my boys (my oldest just turned three). They are kind of cool for us bc I buy very few SW sets throughout the year. So, getting an Ewok and a Jawa for example is nice bc we don't have any. I still think they are a poor value, but I'm sure it will be a lot of fun and that's what I'm really paying for here. I loved Advent Calendars when I was a kid. 
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    I buy the SW one for me and the City one for my son. Started the tradition last year. But definitely not a great value. But getting the SW one today from TRU also got me the C-3PO poly so I'm okay with that. 
  • xowainxxowainx United KingdomMember Posts: 112
    Has anyone heard anything on the longevity of 10237 Ewok Village? I could really, really do without having to buy it before Christmas, but could also really, really do without the "fun" I had obtaining an Orthanc this summer after it discontinued.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Has Brickset EU "stock check" gone? I'm not seeing any numbers like before.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    Yes, Huw mentioned elsewhere that LEGO removed it after he asked an affiliate manager about it...so they probably hadn't realised it was something the public could see.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 903
    Tbh i question it's accuracy when it was there...

    how can there be 1700 pet shops in stock one day, then the following its out of stock, that's what happened a few months ago!
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    & all the Scooby Doo sets are back in stock on [email protected], plus it's showing up on the themes page, again...
    xiahna
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    VorpalRyu said:
    & all the Scooby Doo sets are back in stock on [email protected], plus it's showing up on the themes page, again...
    yaaaay
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,750
    stevemack said:
    Tbh i question it's accuracy when it was there...

    how can there be 1700 pet shops in stock one day, then the following its out of stock, that's what happened a few months ago!
    They could have been redistributed to another retailer or [email protected] to Brand Store.  Anything like that. 
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    What are people's feelings about the jurassic world sets, namely #75919 indominus rex. Out of stock everywhere and all changing hands about 1.5x. Surely that is too short a run and we will see them everywhere before Christmas,  right. Right? 
  • caterham7caterham7 UkMember Posts: 405
    JamesJT - The brickset eu stock check graph symbol (and chart) still appears when the amazon discounts are viewed, but not on the main page for each set. Odd...
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^^ I cannot believe JW is done.  The theme has sold briskly any time they have been on the shelves everywhere I've seen them.  

    I have no idea if there will be a massive restock before Christmas.  Most stores have pulled the shelf tags and filled with other sets.  So I'm not counting on seeing them in quantity until after stores reset from Christmas.

    Given all of that, the entire JW line is on the reseller watch list, with I Rex and Raptor sets being the highest focus.  Anytime they have popped up online, they quickly disappear.

    So no, I don't think JW is done.  But I'm not counting on getting anything before 2016.
    MattsWhat
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^sounds about the same as this side of the ocean then. My concern is that after Christmas no one will even remember the film. If they haven't restocked for the dvd and Christmas would they really bother?
  • caterham7caterham7 UkMember Posts: 405
    Just rechecked the graphs, they are amazon prices, not eu stock... My excuse is that it was about 3am when I spotted them and wasn't paying enough attention.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    The Jurassic World sets seem to be doing really great, but I'm not sure if they're doing great enough for us to see more sets until we're due for another movie in the series. According to Wikipedia, that would mean 2018.

    Remember, back in 2003, sales for themes like Harry Potter, Star Wars, and Spider-Man plummeted because there wasn't a new movie in theaters. That was a big part of why LEGO nearly went bankrupt that year, since they'd come to rely on these licensed themes while taking expensive risks with many of their in-house themes.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    Aanchir said:
    The Jurassic World sets seem to be doing really great, but I'm not sure if they're doing great enough for us to see more sets until we're due for another movie in the series. According to Wikipedia, that would mean 2018.

    Remember, back in 2003, sales for themes like Harry Potter, Star Wars, and Spider-Man plummeted because there wasn't a new movie in theaters. That was a big part of why LEGO nearly went bankrupt that year, since they'd come to rely on these licensed themes while taking expensive risks with many of their in-house themes.
    LEGO did not go bankrupt because there were no movies in the theaters. If I remember correctly the SW license went a good way to keep LEGO around, and so did Potter likely. LEGO got hurt by about 5-10 years earlier by expanding beyond toys with little kitschy things like clothes, watches and computer games that were not great, not because of IP, or lack of movies. If anything the licensed sets likely kept LEGO around for them to rebuild otherwise I doubt LEGO would have kept 'making a mistake' of having SW, Potter, and other licensed themes being produced.

    As for Dinos. If I am not mistaken the Dino line for LEGO a few years ago did great while produced, but the aftermarket value was not spectacular, except maybe that main set with the T Rex. Now, this is Jurassic park, so I think the name may carry it better, but only until another Dino line appears.

    AanchirSumoLego
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,750
    ^ I can't remember the detail but during the Factory Tour in August, I am relatively certain we were told it was Star Wars that was responsible for nearly crippling LEGO.  Someone else might remember better.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    edited November 2015
    Aanchir said:
    The Jurassic World sets seem to be doing really great, but I'm not sure if they're doing great enough for us to see more sets until we're due for another movie in the series. According to Wikipedia, that would mean 2018.

    Remember, back in 2003, sales for themes like Harry Potter, Star Wars, and Spider-Man plummeted because there wasn't a new movie in theaters. That was a big part of why LEGO nearly went bankrupt that year, since they'd come to rely on these licensed themes while taking expensive risks with many of their in-house themes.
    LEGO did not go bankrupt because there were no movies in the theaters. If I remember correctly the SW license went a good way to keep LEGO around, and so did Potter likely. LEGO got hurt by about 5-10 years earlier by expanding beyond toys with little kitschy things like clothes, watches and computer games that were not great, not because of IP, or lack of movies. If anything the licensed sets likely kept LEGO around for them to rebuild otherwise I doubt LEGO would have kept 'making a mistake' of having SW, Potter, and other licensed themes being produced.

    As for Dinos. If I am not mistaken the Dino line for LEGO a few years ago did great while produced, but the aftermarket value was not spectacular, except maybe that main set with the T Rex. Now, this is Jurassic park, so I think the name may carry it better, but only until another Dino line appears.
    It's true that LEGO was declining long before they started doing licensed themes due to all kinds of poor business practices. But the LEGO Group's dependence on these licensed themes was disastrous in that it gave the LEGO Group confidence that they could continue or even thrive WITHOUT correcting the larger flaws in their core business.

    From Brick by Brick, pages 90–91: "By late 2003, the LEGO Group's leaders finally began to concede that the glowing success of LEGO Star Wars, as one executive put it, was ultimately a 'thick, fat layer of cosmetics' hiding the raw blemishes of a sickly core business. By November of that year, it was apparent that all the rouge and mascara had melted away. Without a Star Wars movie, LEGO couldn't reprise the line's explosive growth, and sales rapidly lost altitude."

    I never said that having these licenses was a mistake. Far from it. Getting these licenses, especially Star Wars, was hugely important to the company's future. But it was a mistake to assume a lucrative license would stay lucrative year after year even though a lot of its popularity depended on forces outside the LEGO Group's control.

    That's what I'm getting at here. Even LEGO Star Wars isn't immune to this kind of sales slump in the absence of a new movie, and Star Wars is probably one of the strongest licenses the LEGO Group has ever had. So even though Jurassic World sets have sold like hotcakes this year, that doesn't mean the same thing would happen if LEGO releases new Jurassic World sets next year or the year after that. In 2016 and 2017 LEGO will probably fare better by betting on more current summer blockbusters.
    madforLEGOLyichirLegoboy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited November 2015
    Interesting stuff. Though I find it interesting that it seems like there are those that appear to be blaming SW for being too successful instead of LEGO Management's own incompetence, which really had nothing to do with SW as I'm sure even with no movie it was likely still one of their better selling lines.

    Though it just reinforces my belief that LEGO is on a trend in the wrong direction as it seems they are making many of the same mistakes in the late 90's/ early 2000's and now could be seen as relying on licenses to help keep up their gains and experiments into other mediums.
    goshe7
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    Interesting stuff. Though I find it interesting that it seems like there are those that appear to be blaming SW for being too successful instead of LEGO Management's own incompetence, which really had nothing to do with SW as I'm sure even with no movie it was likely still one of their better selling lines.

    Though it just reinforces my belief that LEGO is on a trend in the wrong direction as it seems they are making many of the same mistakes in the late 90's/ early 2000's and now could be seen as relying on licenses to help keep up their gains and experiments into other mediums.
    I encourage you to read Brick by Brick. It has a lot of great insights into just what LEGO was doing wrong, how they corrected those mistakes, and what they learned from the experience. After reading it, I don't think their situation today is remotely comparable to their situation back then.

    For starters, LEGO has several non-licensed themes like City, Friends, Ninjago, and Creator that continue to thrive year after year. Also, LEGO designers today work hard to keep every product and every theme within a strictly controlled budget. By contrast, "in early 2004, an internal survey of the company's entire product portfolio revealed that 94% of LEGO sets were unprofitable. Only Star Wars and Bionicle kits were making money." (p98) Nowadays new colors, part designs, and decorations MUST be within a theme's budget and MUST be approved by Design Lab (a department that had become largely powerless during the LEGO Group's crisis years).

    Bionicle in particular provided a road map for how LEGO would develop future product lines, since it's really the theme that had the most influence in keeping LEGO from going bankrupt. "In 2003—the year the rest of LEGO came crashing down—Bionicle's soaring sales accounted for approximately 25 percent of the company's total revenue and more than 100 percent of its profit (as the rest of the company was tumbling to a net loss), making it a financial anchor in turbulent times." (p155) Nowadays, "big bang" themes like Atlantis, Ninjago, Legends of Chima, and Nexo Knights are specifically engineered to imitate the Bionicle theme's media-driven, consumer-focused brand strategy and generate a similar global sensation.

    The LEGO Group still takes risks, but they do so more cautiously than they used to. The company's worst-selling theme, Galidor, was developed and rushed to production without adequate market research or audience testing as soon as the LEGO Group saw that Bionicle had become a big hit. By contrast, the LEGO Group's more recent "big bang" themes like Ninjago, Friends, and Legends of Chima were all in development for three or four years in order to make them the best products they could be.
    pharmjodLyichir
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    For all of LEGOs profitable indie lines I would wager that they are making far more money on the licensed lines-and relying on them -more than they care to admit, otherwise why have them?

    For example, all it takes is someone at Disney to wake up one morning and say "Gee, why are we paying LEGO all of this money? Why not buy Megabloks, be a competitor, and make our own lines?" Guess what, if that happens a good chunk of LEGOs revenue goes bye bye real quick; bye Disney, bye SW, and bye Marvel. Three major money makers all gone at the snap of a finger. As much as City, Friends, Creator and Ninjago make for LEGO, I'm guessing that losing three licenses overnight would hurt bad (never mind a rival mega brand would likely make lines to compete against LEGOs lines). Then you have expanded factories and new supply lines all over (just like in late 90's), manufacturing too many part types (just like late 90's/early 00's) and fairly uninspired designs (like the mid to late 90's) sucking money out of LEGO's pockets. I also see the company delving back hard into 'virtual brick' which is another potential pitfall from the late 90's. I see many parallels to the 90's, regardless of what any book says. Also add onto this what appears to be instances of inferior part quality (and apparently a 'ho hum' response to it) and the future of LEGO could turn quicker than most think.

    I still think LEGO does not think of the 'what ifs', at least as much as they claim to now. I just think they have gotten a bit over confident in their success (just like the late 80's to mid 90's) and if they are not careful it bites them in the tookus real fast. Especially with this talk of ripping off Idea submissions for large sets (like Helicarrier and GB HQ), what appears to be growing instances of inferior part quality, and ever rising costs of the sets (which seem to be more than just inflation).
    groundedZegnagoshe7Farmer_JohnJP3804Sethro3Supersympa
  • bok2bok2 Member Posts: 53
    ^Excelent write-up!
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