Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SithLord196

The shortage reports are interesting, especially considering that the Thanksgiving Feast vignette is listed as 'Sold Out' at the U.S. S@H.

I've been wondering a lot the last few months if Lego is running themselves too thin with the incredible number of sets they seem to have out.

madforLEGO

Regarding SW. I think buying SW sets to make money on now is a waste of time. to each their own, but my piece of advice is stay clear.

SithLord196 said:

The shortage reports are interesting, especially considering that the Thanksgiving Feast vignette is listed as 'Sold Out' at the U.S. S@H.

I've been wondering a lot the last few months if Lego is running themselves too thin with the incredible number of sets they seem to have out.

I think that people are hoarding those seasonal vignettes as well and that they seem to be very popular in general (9.99 USD set that is a neat little hoilday scene, only the Halloween one was lacking IMO). I am not surprised it only took about 1-2 weeks for it to sell out online (and I'm guessing, like the others once gone from the online shop they are gone for good there-though likely can find them at your local LEGO store, if you have one). I'm guessing the Christmas/holiday sets that are upcoming will do the same.

But I will speculate that in general LEGO is spreading itself thin seeing how many sets they are producing right now, and likely producing such sets as the new mod due out in Jan. So expect many LEGO sets to become unavailable for the upcoming holiday shopping window.

Aanchir

SithLord196 said:

The shortage reports are interesting, especially considering that the Thanksgiving Feast vignette is listed as 'Sold Out' at the U.S. S@H.

I've been wondering a lot the last few months if Lego is running themselves too thin with the incredible number of sets they seem to have out.

I've seen other people speculate about that, but it seems dubious to me. If you look at 2014 and 2015 in the Brickset database, there are about the same number of sets this year as last year — even counting new product categories for this year like LEGO Dimensions. And still only 20 sets more than they had in 2012. It seems more likely to me that any shortages are due to demand increasing faster than the LEGO Group can ramp up their production.

After all, the sites reporting the possibility of LEGO shortages later this year aren't looking at it from the angle of "I want this particular set but it's out-of-stock and might not be back before the holidays, and in the meantime LEGO is producing a bunch of sets I DON'T want". They're looking at shortages of LEGO products in general.

Pmh

The holiday vignettes and also animals are amongst my favorites.
They are very collectable and they actually do become retirered.
Can see them doing 200-400 percent over next few years.

binaryeye

Aanchir said:

SithLord196 said:

The shortage reports are interesting, especially considering that the Thanksgiving Feast vignette is listed as 'Sold Out' at the U.S. S@H.

I've been wondering a lot the last few months if Lego is running themselves too thin with the incredible number of sets they seem to have out.

I've seen other people speculate about that, but it seems dubious to me. If you look at 2014 and 2015 in the Brickset database, there are about the same number of sets this year as last year — even counting new product categories for this year like LEGO Dimensions. And still only 20 sets more than they had in 2012. It seems more likely to me that any shortages are due to demand increasing faster than the LEGO Group can ramp up their production.

It depends on how you look at the data. Using the following conditions to run a query shows a definite increase in sets that would typically be carried by retailers.

Category = Normal
Packaging Type = Box
Availability <> Not Sold
Availability <> LEGO Exclusive

2010: 125
2011: 118
2012: 201
2013: 172
2014: 245
2015: 289

Farmer_John

I certainly agree that Lego seems to have many more themes and sets than they did in the past (specifically, non-exclusives like many Super Heroes, etc. that sell well); however, Lego has basically admitted that they have a production shortage as discussed in the link below that @BuriedinBricks provided. It seems that fewer themes could provide better throughput efficiencies, but could simultaneously hurt Lego's breadth of market. I have to admit the first thought that popped into my head when I read the article was that it might be a great season for resellers. :-)

http://www.channel3000.com/money/lego-wont-have-enough-bricks-for-everyone-this-christmas/35956816m/money/lego-wont-have-enough-bricks-for-everyone-this-christmas/35956816

SumoLego

We are talking if there isn't a clear Lego indication that a particular set is part of a common theme.  

I haven't seen a press release indicating that the Ferris Wheel is the THIRD in the fairground sub-theme.  

TheLoneTensor

Pmh said:

The holiday vignettes and also animals are amongst my favorites.
They are very collectable and they actually do become retirered.
Can see them doing 200-400 percent over next few years.

I'm not so sure about that.  There have been lots of similar vignettes, and likely will be more.

bandit778

Concerning the reported shortage of bricks, if you were a cynical person you could say that it was a marvellously timed newspaper  piece just before Christmas especially as increasing the dates in the US for double VIP points for more sales seems to points towards them needing more sales for this quarter.
Only if you were really really really cynical though.

Aanchir

bandit778 said:

Concerning the reported shortage of bricks, if you were a cynical person you could say that it was a marvellously timed newspaper  piece just before Christmas especially as increasing the dates in the US for double VIP points for more sales seems to points towards them needing more sales for this quarter.
Only if you were really really really cynical though.

I've seen multiple posts from actual European toysellers saying LEGO won't let them order new stock from certain high-in-demand themes like Star Wars and Ninjago. Now, I don't claim to be a business expert, but I fail to see what LEGO has to gain by failing to satisfy a demand they've already cultivated. It sours their relationship with both retailers and consumers, squanders the marketing dollars LEGO has already spent promoting those themes, and makes the company look incompetent.

In fact, according to the book Brick by Brick (pp105–106), this is one of the many big mistakes LEGO made back in 2003 when they nearly went bankrupt. While most of their themes were failing, Bionicle was doing quite well (it made up 25% of their revenue for that year and over 100% of their profits), and yet LEGO wasn't able to supply retailers with enough of its two best-selling Bionicle sets to fulfill demand in the run-up to the holiday season.

Now, LEGO isn't in anywhere near the same situation today as they were in 2003. Failing to adequately gauge demand isn't going to kill them. But it's still a mistake, and a potentially costly one. There's no way they'd consciously choose not to supply retailers with product just to generate "buzz"

CupIsHalfEmpty

Several pages ago there was a conversation in this thread about intentionally creating a shortage to create more sales. The example was Nike Air Jordans. 

If in year 1, they predict sales to be 1,000,000 units but only produce 950,000. 95% of their customers will be happy, and the remaining 5% will be upset that they missed it. Those 5% will then complain that the product was so popular they sold out, thus advertising that the product is desirable. 

Year 2, thanks to the extra Advertising from last years 5%, Everybody has to get x product before is sells out, so they predict they can now sell 1,500,000 units, but again only produce 95% to create a shortage. 

rinse and repeat, Every year they increase demand as people don't want to "Miss out", they sell 100% of what they produce and that 5% they left on the table, ends up selling 50% more sets the next year. 

Now if they produced 105% of what they sold, the product is less desirable as they seem to "always" be in stock, and have to be cleared out at the end of the year. 

I'm sure it's a heck of a lot more complicated than that, but having articles in the news saying there's a shortage, will increase demand because people won't want to miss out.

CCC

I don't believe than can predict their sales numbers on key Xmas sellers very accurately. That is based on past performance. General city stuff no doubt they can, but sets like Minecraft, exosuit, research institute etc they seemed to have no clue. 

wagnerml2

Sometimes they over produce (See Exo Suit), sometimes they underproduce (See Minecraft).  The impression I get is that based on max production and distribution there will be shortages in certain parts of the world due to market demand that was unanticipated.  There production and supply line has such a lag that I wouldn't think they would want to risk messing with supply levels.

uriel

#21011 #21003 #21006 thoughts? :) They are currently on 50% off here, so I'm thinking of buying a few :D

cloaked7

Just my opinion, but I think the White House would resell the best.  It is the most widely recognized.

MattsWhat

^maybe not so much resell value in central Europe though...

bok2

uriel said:

#21011 #21003 #21006 thoughts? :) They are currently on 50% off here, so I'm thinking of buying a few :D

Just curious, what is the full price in Croatia?

uriel

too much I have to say. I think they've changed it before placing in on a 50% sale.
#21011 47 gbp
#21003  22 gbp
#21006 61.5 gbp

Brew

Bump... ;)

Ronyar

^ha!  Is that a first for this thread? (quick, someone search all 556 pages!)  ;)

prevere

I was looking back on some of the sets from 4-5 years ago that I thought would perform well when retired. It's funny, how in that amount of time, how different I value investing in LEGO today. Now, I would not have touched any of these to invest in.

#5770 Lighthouse Island is a good example of looks good, but it's not that great. Nowadays can be had cheaply. Boy, I was sure it was going to be $150+.

#6857 Dynamic Duo is the classic trap set. I still have a bunch. Damn good set. At the time, I didn't quite realize that TRU was also in the LEGO retirement business.

#10193 Medieval Market Village is the head-scratcher. Wonderful, wonderful set. And of course you can part it out, but if not bought at a discount, you're probably still holding some. Waiting. Hoping. Waiting some more.

binaryeye

prevere said:

#10193 Medieval Market Village is the head-scratcher. Wonderful, wonderful set. And of course you can part it out, but if not bought at a discount, you're probably still holding some. Waiting. Hoping. Waiting some more.

I'm not a reseller. If MMV had done well, what would it be at now? BL average is currently ~1.6x RRP after ~2.75 years.

This is one of the few sets I regret not buying when I had the chance (for $81) but still entertain the thought of buying on the secondary market because it's so cheap for what it is.

brickupdate

I heard that there is an actual village somewhere, where all the homes are made up of stockpiled MMV sets...

SumoLego

^ Same with the Death Star.  There is a fully operational one orbiting around Endor full of resellers...

Pitfall69

I still have a few MMV's, a couple of Lighthouse Islands and 1 Funhouse Escape left. I didn't invest heavily in any of these sets obviously, but I still bought more than I probably should have. If you got MMV at a discount, you could probably clear $48-50 right now after fees and shipping. That's not great, but any profit is better than no profit.

pharmjod

I have 4 MMV left but all were purchased at 25-30% off. I'm in no hurry to sell them as it is a great set and at the prices I paid, I'll just use them to make one big display or use them to accent some other build sometime. I had 10 lighthouses but have sold them all off at a modest profit. I think I have a few fun house escapes left. Those were also sold at a modest profit. Nothing earth shattering, but I didn't really lose anything. 

I am going to try to really get rid of stuff this season and just focus on some of the larger exclusives. It is just easier at the end of the day for me.

Pitfall69

Nobody really "loses" money on LEGO do they? If you just take a profit at face value, you will most certainly make money on LEGO.

pharmjod

Point made and taken. At the end of the day, if I end up with free or cheap LEGO, I consider that a profit =)

VorpalRyu

Our primary goal with reselling is to get our to reduce the overall cost of our personal purchases. If we end up with our stuff for free or make a little extra, awesome... The 6x #60064 at a TRU were the best surprise find, considering that we weren't meant to get them here.

juggles7

Pitfall69 said:

Nobody really "loses" money on LEGO do they? If you just take a profit at face value, you will most certainly make money on LEGO.

I don't follow. Just like you can lose money on an individual set, you could lose money overall, just by making bad purchasing decisions, like buying Lone Ranger or Chima sets at full price for resale. But I expect you would agree with me on that. What do you mean by "take a profit at face value"? Thanks, Pitfall.

prevere

Pitfall69 said:

I still have a few MMV's, a couple of Lighthouse Islands and 1 Funhouse Escape left. I didn't invest heavily in any of these sets obviously, but I still bought more than I probably should have. If you got MMV at a discount, you could probably clear $48-50 right now after fees and shipping. That's not great, but any profit is better than no profit.

I am going to turn one of of my MMVs into something appropriate for a modular city (tavern and hotel combo). Just finishing building my DA to be used as well in a city-context (3-build plaza with a center walkway, fountain, etc). For me, this is the best use of each set. And frankly, I'm tired of looking at those two boxes on the shelf every day.

Pitfall69

juggles7 said:

Pitfall69 said:

Nobody really "loses" money on LEGO do they? If you just take a profit at face value, you will most certainly make money on LEGO.

I don't follow. Just like you can lose money on an individual set, you could lose money overall, just by making bad purchasing decisions, like buying Lone Ranger or Chima sets at full price for resale. But I expect you would agree with me on that. What do you mean by "take a profit at face value"? Thanks, Pitfall.

What I meant was that if you only make $1 or break even after fees, shipping etc. , you didn't "lose" money, but once you consider the time spent on listing, packing, shipping and inflation, you are losing money. As I mentioned before, I had bought a few Luke's Landspeeders, but if I sold them now, I would just make a few dollars after fees. I decided to give them as gifts and not only will I not have to buy a $25 gift, I won't lose money on the set either ;)

How many of you have lost money on LEGO? 

TheLoneTensor

I consider the biggest factor of a stagnating set to be the money that is parked in that set (or lots of that set).  That money isn't making more money over a couple-three years, which I equate to a loss.

goshe7

But if you are putting money into sets that stagnate for a few years, you probably have a flawed model.  So if you had money to spend, you would be spending it foolishly to increase your losses.  Therefore, by losing less, you are actually making money.    

This (mostly tongue-in-cheek) accounting PSA brought to you by Arthur Andersen.

TheLoneTensor

Well...yeah, if that were indeed a model by itself, but that person will go bankrupt quite quickly.  My model is based on a great number of things, the primary being diversification (by far).  As with any properly diverse portfolio, there will be dogs, which is what I'm referring to above.  Even the most successful investors on the planet will end up with dogs; it's absolutely inevitable.

The key is knowing what to do with them.  My stance is once they smell of dog, I consider getting rid of them to cut my losses and put the money elsewhere, in hopefully more effective places.  This is logical (and investing 101).  The hard part is usually detaching emotion and pride from stuff so that you can get through the realization that one of your decisions wasn't so great.  Identify, analyze, decide, then move on.

Pitfall69

I don't model...I'm too ugly. 

SumoLego

^ You could model a dog.

(It's great for side-money.  Better than investing in Lego.  Maybe.)

Farmer_John

MMV is a perfect Bree for LotR. Just design a new box and sell it as a limited edition and you would make a mint. :-)

JamesJT

#21103 is really starting to take off now. I wonder if the price will fall again as "BTTF day" fades from the media.

madforLEGO

JamesJT said:

#21103 is really starting to take off now. I wonder if the price will fall again as "BTTF day" fades from the media.

Not sure. Only because it has been consistently rising since retirement, though Im guessing the BTTF anni likely helps.

prevere

For some reason, I feel there are hoards of these waiting to be sold at the $100 price point.

brickupdate

I grew up with Back to the Future, but I have to say, even back then, there was nowhere near this level of hype. Don't get me wrong: it's a good movie. But all this hype about being some kind of touchstone for a generation is overblown. 

MugenPower

brickupdate said:

I grew up with Back to the Future, but I have to say, even back then, there was nowhere near this level of hype. Don't get me wrong: it's a good movie. But all this hype about being some kind of touchstone for a generation is overblown. 

I agree.  Case in point, one of my friends who likes Lego complained on the anniversary about how expensive the DeLorean set is but I was telling him how he could've easily gotten one from a store for MSRP in the somewhat recent past if he really wanted it.  Seriously, people like me who genuinely liked BTTF from the getgo got the set around the time it came out, even if it looked like crap.  =P

juggles7

Amazon added the 3 Back to the Future movies to their Prime movie offerings, and promoted them on their homepage, also helping to drive interest in the set.

TheLoneTensor

I hope anyone on the fence with the Ecto-1 is paying attention to all these goings on with the DeLorean.

Chubbles

I agree about the ecto1, it's got a lot more going for it IMO.  Franchise being rebooted, bigger fan base, GB HQ coming out, it's a much better build than the delorean as well.  Screams aftermarket winner to me.

madforLEGO

Chubbles said:

I agree about the ecto1, it's got a lot more going for it IMO.  Franchise being rebooted, bigger fan base, GB HQ coming out, it's a much better build than the delorean as well.  Screams aftermarket winner to me.

It also has not been on sale much in the US to the best of my knowledge, whereas the Deloren was on sale a few times via Amazon and Walmart.

goshe7

Any guesses on how long echo 1 will remain on shelves?  It's been out for a long time (for an ideas set) so it seems retirement should be imminent.  However, it would seem rather stupid to discontinue any time soon with the new GBHQ coming out.  

Unless LEGO is going to release it again!  Queue evil laughter.

CircleK

goshe7 said:

However, it would seem rather stupid to discontinue any time soon with the new GBHQ coming out.  

Yeah... For some reason I just don't see this one going anywhere anytime soon. Especially if they advertise that it can be paired with the HQ. 

hoyatables

brickupdate said:

I grew up with Back to the Future, but I have to say, even back then, there was nowhere near this level of hype. Don't get me wrong: it's a good movie. But all this hype about being some kind of touchstone for a generation is overblown. 

I disagree.  For me and for most of my late-30 something friends, Back to the Future was an absolute classic movie.  It was one of the few movies that had that perfect mix of action, adventure, romance, and comedy to appeal to everyone -- the type of movie your folks let you watch and enjoyed watching with you because it wasn't overrun with profanity.  The music was also perfect.  I think my folks also loved it because the 1955 years made them nostalgic.  We all waited anxiously for the promised "to be continued"....  

And as the years went by, I think we all fell back on it more than Ghostbusters, to be honest.  Ghostbusters only re-emerged for me in the  last few years -- I had all but forgotten about it until the pilot of How I Met Your Mother referenced quoting "obscure lines from Ghostbusters" and I thought maybe I should rewatch it if it warranted a reference.

That said, I agree that the absolute explosion of nostalgia for the movie last week was a bit of a surprise.  I think there's something unique about this movie though -- it doesn't just make us nostalgic for the past; it also makes us nostalgic for our collective imagined future.  We all grew up with it and imagined/assumed we would have flying cars and hoverboards in our future, and now that future is here.  Sobering dose of reality to not have some of that fun, but then I look at my iPhone and iPad and the INTERNET and realize, Great Scott how far have we come?!  This is heavy.  Mainly I am just happy that we moved beyond dot matrix printing technology.

I also agree that the Ecto 1 is a better set and a clear winner.  You get the vehicle and 4 figures.  The movie will obviously build up demand, as will the firehouse -- but of course this all assumes that the vehicle is discontinued before then.  I'd say LEGO would be stupid to discontinue it before then, but they pulled the Delorean before October 21, 2015...