Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

TheLoneTensor

 

Farmer_John said:

No Dimensions for me!

I've been saving to get the SHIELD Helicarrier (SH) in another 10 days during this double VIP event when I can also get the extra Christmas set, but I'm only considering getting one at this point. There are a lot of pseudo-negative comments about the SH's afterlife, but I have a hunch that it will do better than expected. If I was filthy rich, I would probably grab a couple more SHs during a double VIP event (alas, I'm not).

Should you get filthy rich in the next 10 days, be careful, they are limit 1.

SumoLego

^ Limit one per household!

(Limit VIP points to one per household, rather...)

VorpalRyu

^ A part from [email protected] & Big W, has there been anywhere else you could purchase SH?

madforLEGO

VorpalRyu said:

Of the Dimensions stuff released so far, what characters have been exclusive? I know the DW pack features the 12th Doctor, but we haven't seen final details on the Lego Ideas set.

Fairly certain the Cyberman is in a Dimensions pack, or will be.

Yodalicious

VorpalRyu said:

Of the Dimensions stuff released so far, what characters have been exclusive? I know the DW pack features the 12th Doctor, but we haven't seen final details on the Lego Ideas set.

The Portal one and the Wicked Witch. The Ideas set was unveiled tonight. I believe the 12th Doctor in it is slightly different than the Dimensions one. At least that's what one of the sites I read said. 

VorpalRyu

madforLEGO said:

VorpalRyu said:

Of the Dimensions stuff released so far, what characters have been exclusive? I know the DW pack features the 12th Doctor, but we haven't seen final details on the Lego Ideas set.

Fairly certain the Cyberman is in a Dimensions pack, or will be.

That again could also turn up in the Idea set, I know Ideas sets can only use existing pieces, TLG could bend the rules here, as there is a Cyberman going into production for Dimensions.

So far, on the packs released, Wicked Witch seems to be the only other exclusive a part from DW. Of course, looking at the future waves, that will change somewhat with Stay-Puffed, Slimer, etc...

VorpalRyu

@Yodalicious, hadn't seen the Portal 2 set in shops here so far, so I figured it must be one for the later waves.

Yodalicious

^ It's in the first wave. The Doctor Who ones are in the later waves. 

Pitfall69

dougts said:

I'm not touching it, for a variety of reasons.

I'm slow (obviously), so please elaborate :)

dougts

Pitfall69 said:

dougts said:

I'm not touching it, for a variety of reasons.

I'm slow (obviously), so please elaborate :)

well, you could evaluate the after EOL value of these items either as LEGO parts packs, or as video game expansions.  I don't trade in the video game market, and have no feel for potential investment value, value of older new/used/retro games, etc.  Anecdotally, I know the value of older stuff generally goes down pretty substantially, but for me it's just a large unkown.

Which leaves the LEGO parts value.  Obviously, that value is tied almost entirely to the minifigures, and more specifically the exclusive minifigures.  Even then, they are fairly expensive in terms of the parts included alone.  There is no guarantee that the exclusives will remain exclusive down the line, nor that there won't be so many of these things on the aftermarket that the values will go up enough to justify the investment.  Are some of the packs like to be winners?  Sure.  But I don't want to do the research into what is largely an unknown still, and hope I guess right.

Finally, After dabbling the past couple years in $20-$50 sets for investment, I've found I'd rather stick to the higher price point stuff for my investing.  It's just a matter of limited time and wanting to make the most money per sale.  I know some stuff in that price point has a better % return than the larger stuff, but it's still storing and moving 3-5 times more items to make the same amount of actual $. And my time is limited, so I"m divesting myself of stuff in that price range and going back to focusing on the larger stuff only.

So, that's my position. But it's very specific to me in most cases.

SumoLego

^ So I know there to try and trade my extra Super Star Destroyer...

Farmer_John

TheLoneTensor said:

 

Farmer_John said:

No Dimensions for me!

I've been saving to get the SHIELD Helicarrier (SH) in another 10 days during this double VIP event when I can also get the extra Christmas set, but I'm only considering getting one at this point. There are a lot of pseudo-negative comments about the SH's afterlife, but I have a hunch that it will do better than expected. If I was filthy rich, I would probably grab a couple more SHs during a double VIP event (alas, I'm not).

Should you get filthy rich in the next 10 days, be careful, they are limit 1.

I guess if I was filthy rich, the double VIP points wouldn't mean any to me either. :-)

TheLoneTensor

dougts said:

Finally, After dabbling the past couple years in $20-$50 sets for investment, I've found I'd rather stick to the higher price point stuff for my investing.  It's just a matter of limited time and wanting to make the most money per sale.

Couldn't agree more regarding most Lego investments.  I've nestled snugly into the $100-$150(ish) neighborhood, very rarely going outside that.

BuriedinBricks

TheLoneTensor said:

Couldn't agree more regarding most Lego investments.  I've nestled snugly into the $100-$150(ish) neighborhood, very rarely going outside that.

My basement closet full of Chima agrees with you ;)

dougts

iccarus said:

TheLoneTensor said:

Couldn't agree more regarding most Lego investments.  I've nestled snugly into the $100-$150(ish) neighborhood, very rarely going outside that.

My basement closet full of Chima agrees with you ;)

Ouch 

SumoLego

^^^ Wanna buy a UCS B-Wing?

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

^^^ Wanna buy a UCS B-Wing?

I actually sold one today :)

SumoLego

^ Funny, I don't remember buying it from you.  I hope I got a good deal!

Was that you in the dumpster next to me?

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

^ Funny, I don't remember buying it from you.  I hope I got a good deal!

Was that you in the dumpster next to me?

If you bought it from me, you probably got screwed.

No, I wasn't in the dumpster, but it could have been my long lost brother.

...Yes, the thought of another "Pitfall" out there , sounds disturbing. 

VorpalRyu

@Pitfall69, a second one you running around would be better than a few other people I know. :D

SumoLego

I'll see you at the next building event at some random dude's house in Topeka.  It won't be creepy.

3stackshs

And deathstar has an expected ship date of 19 Oct on US [email protected]

BuriedinBricks

dougts said:

iccarus said:

TheLoneTensor said:

Couldn't agree more regarding most Lego investments.  I've nestled snugly into the $100-$150(ish) neighborhood, very rarely going outside that.

My basement closet full of Chima agrees with you ;)

Ouch 

Fortunately, it was (mostly) a joke. I only have like 4-5 Chima sets I never opened. Most of those were picked up for at least 50% off and three are destined to be parted out, if I ever actually remember to do it. The rest are probably going to be Christmas gifts this year.

uriel

I've bought a ton of Chima sets this year on 50 or 70%. Sold the minifigs and kept the parts for building. Earned a bit money and got LOADS of good bricks :)

wagnerml2

You were actually able to sell Chima figs?  I thought Chima was Danish for "no resale value".

bobabricks

wagnerml2 said:

You were actually able to sell Chima figs?  I thought Chima was Danish for "no resale value".

Those Chima figs seem to sell like hot cakes. When I listed mine on BrickLink, they all sold within two days.

CCC

Yeah. Priced right, Chima figs sell. Quite a few kids collect them.

VorpalRyu

Our little mister six loves the minifigures from Chima, but adding the sets into the household Lego budget was just too much, so we made a deal with him. When daddy has BrickLink orders & the seller has Chima figures, provided we're happy with the prices & it won't add too much to the postage cost, we'll buy them.

SithLord196

I personally liked Chima. I can see how it has very little to no investment value, but I liked the few sets I bought and built.

The minifigures definitely seem to be the draw for it though.

brumey

my little nephew (nearly 5 yo) is totally hooked on chima, ninjago and pirates!

place part of the blame on me!

uriel

wagnerml2 said:

You were actually able to sell Chima figs?  I thought Chima was Danish for "no resale value".

for an average price of 4 gbp per figure, yes :)

prevere

VorpalRyu said:

Our little mister six loves the minifigures from Chima, but adding the sets into the household Lego budget was just too much, so we made a deal with him. When daddy has BrickLink orders & the seller has Chima figures, provided we're happy with the prices & it won't add too much to the postage cost, we'll buy them.

I did that with the Elves line. We skipped the sets, and got all the figs for about $20. Now the Palace Cinema and Pet Shop are filled with strange people with pointy ears.

SumoLego

^ Vulcans do enjoy Ingmar Bergman films and kittens.

Brickarmor

Death Star lives. I just might finally get a personal one if it's still up on the 13th.

Steve_J_OM

In the modular thread it was suggested that a new landmark set is coming in January. I wonder if this will finally spell the end for Tower Bridge? It's a set that was never on my radar until I moved to London this year; now that I practically work next to the thing, and feel a bit more of a connection to it, it's muscling its way onto my want list. 

stevemack

Hmmm... I recon SOH will go first, tower bridge just had a new box released!

SumoLego

^  It's tough to kill a Zombie set - because it's already dead.  

One would think when the Creator Ferrari was released that the VW would be on the retirement track, yet it has a new box and appears to have some long legs.

My speculation is that the Opera House will probably go EOL before the Tower Bridge, but that neither will retire in 2016.

That said, if you are thinking about it, wait for those 2x points and pick one up.  It's a nice build and a great display piece.

madforLEGO

TB DS and VW are long in tooth and I still think that at least two of them will be gone after this holiday season, or into mid/late spring at latest, but that is just a feeling.

I still think that this run of DS's is its last and once they finish this run it will be sold out for good.
In any case, I think we are at that time of year again and getting very close to production cut offs for sets no longer to be made (if those cut offs have not already occurred), and will start seeing stocks running out of those sets beginning in November depending on popularity and remaining stocks, with the large scale re-sellers on the prowl I would say earlier than later.
So I expect the thread will stay fairly on topic for the next few months :-)

kiki180703

I think the pet shop and the palace cinema will be soon gone, because in the press release for the #10251 Brick Bank, they say: 

• Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Creator Expert Modular Building series 10243 Parisian Restaurant and 10246 Detective’s Office.

aldredd

Yeah, been a year since the last two modulars retired, so at least one more probably due before Christmas

stevemack

kiki180703 said:

I think the pet shop and the palace cinema will be soon gone, because in the press release for the #10251 Brick Bank, they say: 

• Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Creator Expert Modular Building series 10243 Parisian Restaurant and 10246 Detective’s Office.

Not always a good one to go off, I think the fire station was still out 3 years after the other sets on the box you could buy had retired! 

pharmjod

I'm not convinced the PS and PC are done anytime soon. Could be wrong though. LEGO has gotten increasingly difficult to predict though. I wouldn't mind having about 6 more PC though.

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

I'm not convinced the PS and PC are done anytime soon. Could be wrong though. LEGO has gotten increasingly difficult to predict though. I wouldn't mind having about 6 more PC though.

I still think the PS is gone this year, but there of course are the rumors it lingers for '16 as a LEGO only exclusive (That is LEGO only sells it for the next year) but I am still dubious of that until it happens. If that does occur I'm guessing the PC lingers until '17 as do this date we have not seen mods retire out of order (and no I do not include the Town Hall mainly because the price point was 199.99 USD, not 149.99 or 159.99 USD). I know that many here have jumped to the bp site but I would like to think that any such rumors would have gained more traction at this point and spread to Brickset but again like you said you can never tell with LEGO at this point.

Farmer_John

Maybe TLG will do a two-fer discontinuation like they did with TH and GE last year. If so, then the PS and PC are the more obvious targets. Both the PS and PC come in at $150; the new modulars are at least $160.

Here is a graph of the current and EOL'd modulars based on their longevity. The red bars indicate the sets have already been EOL'd; the blue bars indicate the sets are still in production. The black line is the average longevity for the EOL'd sets (red bars). As can be seen, the PS is well past due to be EOL'd while the PC still has roughly a year to go to make the average EOL date. To me this means that an EOL of the PS is expected while an EOL of the PC could catch potential buyers off guard. In short, EOLing the PC this year could make it another TH.

SumoLego

Am I the only one who doesn't like where the Parisian Restaurant could fall in this graph?  It looks like these modulars have an exceptionally long life, or don't quite make it to 1000 days.

Where is Market Street?

pharmjod

SumoLego said:

Where is Market Street?

hahahahahahaha

Farmer_John

SumoLego said:

Where is Market Street?

I knew that question was going to come up. I've plotted and posted similar graphs for the modulars in the past and there's always the endless debate about whether or not MS should be included. Personally, I don't have a preference and probably should have included it...it really wasn't a conscious decision not to include it. I just didn't have it included in my original spreadsheet. Probably need to update that...

juggles7

MS, if included, would have a red line shorter that that of CC, and it would move the average, the dotted line, a little to the left. But you probably already knew that. (See how I sidestepped that whole controversy about whether MS is a modular or not)

CCC

It looks rather bimodal to me. There seems to be two types of modulars - long life and very long life. Spotting trends that wouldn't be there in bigger data sets is a problem with very small data sets.

And remember "the game" varies with time too.

SumoLego

I'm really just fishing for an excuse to complain about the omission of Space Skulls.

(In all seriousness, I'd like to see the comparative lifespan for the Haunted House, the fairground line and the trains that can seep into a modular town.)