Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Sethro3

Clearly, the reason people love 10184 is for those precious Gold bricks....precious.

wagnerml2

I have one (#10184) sealed.  It's one I've never really had a strong urge to build for some reason.

Legoboy

^ or open in my case.  ;)

dragonhawk

IMHO
#10184 looks like 19-something small town USA, a reminder of the days when LEGO did not put a helicopter in every other set :D
#60097 looks like a downtown of a metropolitan.  Honestly though, it needs 1 more building and 1 less helicopter

juggles7

The Jurassic World sets are "temporarily out of stock" (you can't even pre-order them) at Shop at Home USA. I guess that's an improvement for Raptor Escape, which was previously "sold out".

Basta

VorpalRyu said:

madforLEGO said:

If you can get it for well under its RRP (like 40-50% of its RRP) then I'm guessing it will do OK for those at that price point. However I'm not sure how many will say they want to buy that set for 190 USD+ after EOL.

It is a nice detailed set, just way too expensive at RRP (it is 10 USD less than a PF Cargo train set -which also appears overpriced as well), especially when compared to the previous 'city square/transportation' sets like #8404 or #60026 (both of which were on sale many times in their run to sell them).
I just do not think you can expect this set to rise in value EOL dramatically over RRP, 'LEGO store' /Futuron figure in it or not.

As for grabbing them for reselling, I wasn't really contemplating it myself, but found it curious that someone else was going all out to grab as many as they could. If I were to, I'd probably only grab one or two & that's if Big W have a 30% off sale, I have better places to put my money.

But who know why they were buying, it is a pretty good parts pack and with a partout value of $424.74AUD they could have been after cheap parts or maybe they run a BL store etc.

With that said there is some sellers who will buy sets on sale and flip straight away. There is a pretty big seller on eBay (and Gumtree) who is known to rock up to Myer/Big W etc. and load up trolley loads of the on sale exclusives (Much to the disgust of many Lego enthusiast) and he seems to manage to sell a number of current sets at above RRP (Mainly due to local availability).

With #60097 this seller is actually selling it for $222.99 shipped, so after fees he is down to about $194 and then he has to pay postage which best case scenario (Besides local pickup) he is up for $20 which give him a profit of only $15.60. Although I guess he may use 5% off gift cards etc to pay for the items so add another $8 to his profit. This is all assuming he got them at 20% off the $198 price ($158.40).

VorpalRyu

@Basta, we're in Adelaide, haven't heard of this happening, so I'd assume this seller is local to you. I know the #60097 we grabbed was 20% off Big W's price of $198, $158.40 sounds about right, so I'd say they got theirs at the same (unless Big W suddenly have a no discounts policy on buying multiples of an item).

stevemack

Does anyone know what's going on with the Jurassic world sets and why there are so few in supply?  Is it case of lego didn't predict how popular they would actually be?

joel4motion

@stevemack
Certainly in the US, resellers have a part to play in the shortage. The brickpickers are all over the JW stuff. Elsewhere, I would have thought that there wasn't much expectation and therefore less stock, could be wrong but no one I know has any interest and the kids in the family certainly have none.

Yodalicious

Just an FYI on the Jurassic World sets...

I was able to get the last one I needed - Raptor Rampage - from TRU online yesterday. Seems they still have it. Other than that, like others have said, they are all completely gone from my area.

Sethro3

I haven't seen them in stores, other than the Dilophosaurus set at TRU when they had the Electro promo (I think). After that (basically when the movie came out) I have yet to see any more in stores..any stores. Walmart, Target, TRU, ShopKo...zero stock. Maybe they were available online, but I haven't seen any shelf space taken up after the theater run.

(With all of this said, I didn't see the movie. Was it actually that good to warrant this?)

Bumblepants

They will be out of stock until 2x points is over I bet. Then "O, look! we have more."

TheLoneTensor

Sethro3 said:

(With all of this said, I didn't see the movie. Was it actually that good to warrant this?)

Good is relative, because the plot is pedestrian and really stupid in parts.  I'd say it hit a great combination of nostalgia, cartoon adventure and providing for the the lack of good dinosaur action in films for a decade or more.  I loved it.

Yodalicious

TheLoneTensor said:

Sethro3 said:

(With all of this said, I didn't see the movie. Was it actually that good to warrant this?)

Good is relative, because the plot is pedestrian and really stupid in parts.  I'd say it hit a great combination of nostalgia, cartoon adventure and providing for the the lack of good dinosaur action in films for a decade or more.  I loved it.

Couldn't have put it better myself. It by no means is a great movie in the terms of cinema being an art, but 9 times out of 10, I just want to be entertained. And I was, thoroughly.

Add that to the fact that I didn't have any of the previous dinosaur-related LEGO sets...

...AND...

...my son is 3 and LOVES dinosaurs, it was a no-brainer to get the entire theme.

canon03

Most are available again at [email protected] US.

tick1970

Obviously by this forum it's all about collecting and finding those future gems that rise in value.

but what do we think makes a good retired set? 

We we know that all Lego sets will retire that's not an issue. Of course some themes have a bigger draw Star Wars, Potter etc etc.

are big expensive exclusives due to be guarantees as the number of sets in circulation aw probably less?

Sometimes it's a small theme that strikes a chord and is then later sought after.

I know you get those that collect the trains and I get that. Guess just a bit of opinions on whT makes a future winner.

of recent sets I really like the Arctix City theme and since it won't continue might be a decent future earner.

new to the forums but I enjoy hearinf all sorts of opinions. So maybe give a choice of a good future theme or ate as well as other thoughts about it all. Cheers

tick1970

Sorry bit of typos on iPhone typing 

Kevin_Hyatt

Buy low, sell high.

(PS you're about to get a load of 'you should post in the existing thread' and similar!)

And welcome to the forum!

tick1970

Thanks Kevin if I get a lot of that I'll close the thread cheers

CCC

Many sets are good investments. Buying at the best price turns a good one to a great one. The ability to search and digest past info is important, as is moving quickly when you get the chance.

Phonebooth

tick1970 said:

Obviously by this forum it's all about collecting and finding those future gems that rise in value.

It's very sad that new members and lurkers see the value of Brickset being an insider-trading forum.

pharmjod

Perhaps he was just referring to the specific forum (buying and selling topics).

tick1970

pharmjod said:

Perhaps he was just referring to the specific forum (buying and selling topics).

That's whats written on the tin

Dedgecko

Search sucks, go here:  http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value/p1

obviously dont read the whole thing, but that's the proper location of this same topic.

@CCC and @Kevin_Hyatt hit the nail on the head though, buy low sell hi, and target rare sets (typically larger sets-but not always, or those from limited release areas).

SumoLego

Don't buy Construct-a-Zurg.  Until nobody can find them, and then they'll be expensive.

BrickDaddy

Not tell anybody else what you're buying or what your strategy is.

Fewer people buying what's you're stocking up on means less supply = increased prices because demand is not satisfied. The only reason why prices rise in the aftermarket is because there's a supply shortage 

Simple as that. Lots of shooting oneself in the foot goes on here and that other site

SumoLego

So, if I buy everything and create a shortage, then I will be Master of the Universe!

Bwahahahahahahahaha!

Except for the Ninjago Dareth polybag.  Even if there are none available, nobody will want one.

Or will they...

pharmjod

If you tell them they can't have one then maybe...

Goldchains

Well you can't have my Dareth polybag!!!  Unless you really want it...

Coolguy5000

I still  need a dareth  polybag! 

AdeelZubair

It looks like the Volkswagen T1 Camper Van (10220) has got a new box which means it will be around for another year or so...

uriel

what do you guys think of the #10214 ? I've bought 2 sealed for 235 usd here in the EU

stevemack

#10214 is another set that wont go... I have double digits worth stored away! Good price though!

VorpalRyu

^ If you're talking US$235 for two (as in US$117.50 each), then you got a bargain, just don't put a thermometer on them...

uriel

oh my bad, 235 $ each :) 

Aanchir

SumoLego said:

So, if I buy everything and create a shortage, then I will be Master of the Universe!

Bwahahahahahahahaha!

Except for the Ninjago Dareth polybag.  Even if there are none available, nobody will want one.

Or will they...

I mean, Dareth's an iconic character from the show and there are a lot of fans of the show out there. This is also the only set that has him in the costume he's worn in pretty much every episode he's appeared in. If that polybag weren't available in such huge numbers then I could see it fetching a pretty penny on the aftermarket. I made sure to order one of those shortly after it first became available.

SumoLego

^ My local TRU has cases upon cases of the polybag, so that is just a antecodal observation.

madforLEGO

Not sure if people are joking when they say because a set got a new box that it must be out for another year. I do not see that at all. I see a company trying to somewhat standardize their boxes as many have recently moved to new boxes, but I would not consider that a reason for the sets being out for another year.

Maxime_1987

Let's start a discussion again since it is 2x VIP rewards. 

If you have a 200-250$ for investment, what will you buy and why you speculate this set will increase.

There are a few in my list : 
#76023 The tumbler. Pretty cool design, doubt they will make more of it. Will be iconic when new batman movies will be released. 
#10232 Palace cinema. It is a great modular, and this is a corner which we dont have that much. 
#10218 petshop. I still dont know about this one. seems too many people are buying this one to resell it. 
#10247 Ferris Wheel. I believe this one will increase in price in long-term unless they make a new one. Pretty amazing build.
#76042 The SHIELD helicarrier. Although it is more expensive that what I suggested, this is a cool build. But I am not sure. The risks are there because of the price. Could win a lot or could not make any profits. More like gambling on this one. 
#10234 Sydney opera house. Lots of discussion about it in the last few pages. Big question mark on this one.
#10244 Fairground mixer. This one look very nice for investment. Not that expensive. 
#70810 Metablbear sea cow. Although it is from lego movie, it is still a boat so the price might go up. 

and of course, all UCS star wars

So what are you thoughts?

dougts

from your list, I think the Tumbler and Ferris wheel are the best long term. The modulars are going to be a pretty safe investment, but maybe not the top end potential of those first two.

I'd stay far away from Sea Cow.  I think the price poiints on Opera House and Helicarrier might be a red flag also, especially Opera House, which probably has a pretty niche audience. 

uriel

the tumber is 218 $ here. I am thinking about taking one :)

madforLEGO

dougts said:

from your list, I think the Tumbler and Ferris wheel are the best long term. The modulars are going to be a pretty safe investment, but maybe not the top end potential of those first two.

I'd stay far away from Sea Cow.  I think the price poiints on Opera House and Helicarrier might be a red flag also, especially Opera House, which probably has a pretty niche audience. 

I would also add #10220 as an option, maybe better than the Fairground mixer as well. While there could be many hoarding #10220 I would say that they will have more of a following than the Fairground mixer when all is said and done.

Yodalicious

It wouldn't be too difficult to do, and maybe I will someday when I don't have a 3-year-old and a 3-week-old commanding my attention, but I wonder if there's a correlation between minifig sets and increased prices in the future?

I ask because I, for one, only really purchase those sets. Yes that's just me, but I'd imagine there are more out there like that too. It's a combination of loving minifigs and greater playability to me. So something like the Helicarrier has ZERO appeal to me. Yes, it comes with minifigs, but it isn't a set they can be used in if that makes sense. The same with the Sydney Opera House. It's a beautiful set, but does nothing for me as it's not minifig scale.

The ONLY exception I have to this rule is that I buy Architecture sets of the places my wife and I have been, but other than that I've eliminated things like the Tumbler from my want list.

Again, that could be just me because I'm more in the LEGO as a toy camp than as a collectible or piece of art. (Although I do sure like to collect the heck out of it!)

stevemack

I was going to get a chunk of #10220 this year however that new box coming out has stopped me as it's clearly going to linger on like #10188.

#10218 is heavily hoarded I think, although I do have my fair share as the same happened with #10197 and it still went up in value even though every man and his dog had 20 of them.


#10224 Niche audience perhaps, but then that means less likely to be hoarded!

pharmjod

Taj Mahal is also a niche audience. Not that SOH is necessarily in the same league as far as LEGO design aesthetic goes. There aren't really any of the big landmark sets that interest me much though. I like them, but have no idea where I'd put them. I bought several tower bridges on sale, but don't have a single SOH. Not sure what I think about it tbh.

TheUltimateTFOL

Here's an interesting new topic: Dimensions. I know it's really new and everyone says it is overpriced but the DLC is chock-full of exclusive minifigures and pieces. Does anyone think this might be a good investment when the first wave retires? It has the potential to be a great investment.

dougts

I'm not touching it, for a variety of reasons.

Farmer_John

No Dimensions for me!

I've been saving to get the SHIELD Helicarrier (SH) in another 10 days during this double VIP event when I can also get the extra Christmas set, but I'm only considering getting one at this point. There are a lot of pseudo-negative comments about the SH's afterlife, but I have a hunch that it will do better than expected. If I was filthy rich, I would probably grab a couple more SHs during a double VIP event (alas, I'm not).

I also like the Tumbler and the Parisian Restaurant in the long run. Additionally, I think that LotR and a couple of The Hobbit sets will do well in the long run too. The may take some time to appreciate, but I'm confident they'll never be done again in my lifetime.

Yodalicious

TheUltimateTFOL said:

Here's an interesting new topic: Dimensions. I know it's really new and everyone says it is overpriced but the DLC is chock-full of exclusive minifigures and pieces. Does anyone think this might be a good investment when the first wave retires? It has the potential to be a great investment.

A few of the truly exclusive minifigures will be desirable, but truthfully there aren't all that many. And some that appear to be may be coming in future sets. If they stay exclusive, there will definitely be want for them, but most of the others probably won't have much going for them years from now. Especially when the game is eventually past its prime. 

VorpalRyu

Of the Dimensions stuff released so far, what characters have been exclusive? I know the DW pack features the 12th Doctor, but we haven't seen final details on the Lego Ideas set.