Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

thenos

ecmo47 said:

TH retired at 1.5 years not 5. Good chart!

In 2.5 years,  and there were 5 modulars out when it retired.  

TheLoneTensor

brickupdate said:

Wait - Palace Cinema is still being made?! It's crazy looking at that chart seeing all of these sets. PS, PC, PR, AND DO all at the same time. 

Being made?  Dunno.  Retired?  Not yet.  The same can be said of the PS.  And @ecmo47, the TH was out for 2.5 years.  Re-read the chart, knowing that the column spacing kinda sucks.

As for out at the same time, there were two crazy 9-month periods of 5 modulars out at the same time:

1: FB, GE, PS, TH, PC
2: GE, PS, TH, PC, PR

Btw, the conclusions that I draw from that chart are:
1) PS: Buy it ASAP if you even remotely want it (if/when it comes back in stock, that is.  It's possibly too late as we speak)
2) PC, PR, DO: You got some time, unless one of them pulls a Town Hall (which I don't think they will)

kiki180703

TheLoneTensor said:

brickupdate said:

Wait - Palace Cinema is still being made?! It's crazy looking at that chart seeing all of these sets. PS, PC, PR, AND DO all at the same time. 

Being made?  Dunno.  Retired?  Not yet.  The same can be said of the PS.  And @ecmo47, the TH was out for 2.5 years.  Re-read the chart, knowing that the column spacing kinda sucks.

As for out at the same time, there were two crazy 9-month periods of 5 modulars out at the same time:

1: FB, GE, PS, TH, PC
2: GE, PS, TH, PC, PR

Btw, the conclusions that I draw from that chart are:
1) PS: Buy it ASAP if you even remotely want it (if/when it comes back in stock, that is.  It's possibly too late as we speak)
2) PC, PR, DO: You got some time, unless one of them pulls a Town Hall (which I don't think they will)

Thank you very much!
now I know which and when to buy other modulars.

Jugga

Super interesting data you have put together @TheLoneTensor. I have put in a graph to show sets over time quite clearly. Numbers in the Bars are Days on Market.
Some interesting conclusions can be made from this.

SumoLego

If the 2016 set is a corner set, that's probably the harbinger to the end of the Palace Cinema.

Or, it's the demise of the PS we are back to two corners, and two mid-block sets...

Either way, the Death Star and Ewok Village are not retired...

SumoLego

I do recall the Grand Emporium being one of those TRU website exclusive zombie sets, which may explain its prolonged life.

TwoToneBricks

I really hope the Death Star isn't finished. I'm finally ready to get one and am not willing to pay anything over retail. Had I known how old it was I would have purchased one long before this whole ordeal went down.  I practically have my Lego store on speed dial. They said they're still supposed to be getting them in. Almost a month later and still no luck. Not giving up though.

Vortex

The Tower #10237  made out of the LEGO warehouse ,journeyed 6822 miles ,crossed the Atlantic and much more and reached this spot unscathed a couple days back. I can rest ... for now

Vortex

^ Sorry i need to learn how size down my photos to an acceptable level

snowhitie

^ looks fine on my screen.

cloaked7

^^^ The only problem I see is the red Desperate Housewives Cookbook.  How'd that get in with your LOTR stuff? he he

SumoLego

cloaked7 said:

^^^ The only problem I see is the red Desperate Housewives Cookbook.  How'd that get in with your LOTR stuff? he he

I always look for odd things when people post photos.  Then I start having 'Where's Waldo' flashbacks...

Vortex

Lol, you know it's funny , but I'm not totally surprised you picked that , I thought about moving it out but then thought nah who's gonna... It's my wife's and the irony ...she doesn't even cook :pensive: 

motownjunk

[email protected] is showing #70173 Ultra Agents Ocean HQ as sold out already.  Looks like TRU may be the only place still selling it at retail.

bok2

motownjunk said:

[email protected] is showing #70173 Ultra Agents Ocean HQ as sold out already.  Looks like TRU may be the only place still selling it at retail.

In Denmark (and Europe?) it appears the set is not available at [email protected], however, you can buy it at TRU.

What about rest of Europe?

juggles7

This doesn't seem to be a TRU exclusive, in that it's not shown as an exclusive on TRU's website. Yet I never saw one "in the wild". Did anyone ever see one of these in the US at a Walmart, Target, etc? I check a lot of stores frequently, and never saw one. If this is a TRU exclusive, they could offer it for a long, long time, regardless of its "sold status" at Shop at Home.

TheLoneTensor

Vortex said:

Lol, you know it's funny , but I'm not totally surprised you picked that , I thought about moving it out but then thought nah who's gonna... It's my wife's and the irony ...she doesn't even cook :pensive: 

But is she desperate? :)

vasp

juggles7 said:

This doesn't seem to be a TRU exclusive, in that it's not shown as an exclusive on TRU's website. Yet I never saw one "in the wild". Did anyone ever see one of these in the US at a Walmart, Target, etc? I check a lot of stores frequently, and never saw one. If this is a TRU exclusive, they could offer it for a long, long time, regardless of its "sold status" at Shop at Home.

But TRU only shows 720 available

AceCobra1

Just noticed that the 70815 is retired... is it worth investing in it?

motownjunk

bok2 said:

motownjunk said:

[email protected] is showing #70173 Ultra Agents Ocean HQ as sold out already.  Looks like TRU may be the only place still selling it at retail.

In Denmark (and Europe?) it appears the set is not available at [email protected], however, you can buy it at TRU.

What about rest of Europe?

Sorry, should have clarified--in the US [email protected] 

juggles7

AceCobra1 said:

Just noticed that the 70815 is retired... is it worth investing in it?

Probably not. I've got a couple I was lucky enough to pick up at half price. I think there are probably a great many of these, purchased for resale, that were picked up at a steep discount. That's the supply side.  As for the demand, it's not a good sign that the set is still at Amazon-USA, selling for 20% off. Demand looks weak. 

Pitfall69

^...and the fact that it isn't retired in the US yet.

I still do not believe that TLM sets are a wise investment unless you got them for 50% off.

juggles7

#70173 Ultra Agents Ocean HQ is back in stock at [email protected] See how "sold out" has come to mean nothing more than just out of stock?

pharmjod

It is still a set I suspect will disappear sooner than later (#70173).

prevere

So, I remember about a year ago, I was thinking I should start savings up to buy a few Haunted Houses. I believe it was late August when the rush hit, and it was clear that stock was dwindling fast. Really fast. And then poof about 2-3 days later it seemed - it was all gone. Although tiny quantities resurfaced, for the most part it was EOL.

That was a unique and very special set - an all-time great. I'm not suggesting the same thing will happen to any set this fall. However, given its current status, I can see Santa's Workshop fitting that scenario.

madforLEGO

prevere said:

So, I remember about a year ago, I was thinking I should start savings up to buy a few Haunted Houses. I believe it was late August when the rush hit, and it was clear that stock was dwindling fast. Really fast. And then poof about 2-3 days later it seemed - it was all gone. Although tiny quantities resurfaced, for the most part it was EOL.

That was a unique and very special set - an all-time great. I'm not suggesting the same thing will happen to any set this fall. However, given its current status, I can see Santa's Workshop fitting that scenario.

Yeah, still remember those holding out hope that there was 'no way that LEGO would let such as set end its run right before Halloween'...

Santa's workshop still being around on [email protected] US (albeit being temporarily out of stock for about 4-6  months now) makes me further think that this new 'toy shop' is more of a elves factory that matches with the workshop OR maybe that LEGO realized that, in the US at least, you keep stocks of the last WV set to release a run of them right before the holidays and not having production runs in the summer only for resellers to buy them up and then production runs out when such a set would be popular, but like anything else, just wild speculation on my part.

SithLord196

The Exo Suit has been discounted to $27.98 on the U.S. [email protected]

I'm not sure about it as an investment but I may buy another one because my original is missing pieces from moving I think.

piratemania7

^ Still can't believe how the Exo Suit turned out....I remember frantically trying to source one when the first batch sold out!

FollowsClosely

Yes. The 60 I purchased the first month of availability are haunting me.

bobabricks

FollowsClosely said:

The 60 I purchased

That "0" is a typo... right? *faints*

Sethro3

That was only a year ago, right?

SumoLego

I don't think people get haunted by six boxes.

FollowsClosely

Well... 59 I guess as one is for our personal collection. Six months ago I was still optimistic, now I have doubts that I will get my money back.

pharmjod

Yeah, the 6 or so I have I'm not sweating. I still feel better about the multitude of research institutes I have though.

AceCobra1

Is the battle of 5 armies 79017 a good investment if I can get it for £30? Doesn't seem like it is a popular set but retired now so just thinking might be able to flip it during xmas time?

ryjay

@AceCobra1I think most of the Hobbit and Lord of the Ring legos will do well over time.  Not sure how well at that price for this holiday season.  

ryjay

Oh, I edited the above, the prices I stated were for the set #76016 selling @ $14.98.  Set #79017 was selling for $29.98 when I last bought.

AceCobra1

ryjay said:

Oh, I edited the above, the prices I stated were for the set #76016 selling @ $14.98.  Set #79017 was selling for $29.98 when I last bought.

$30 sounds about right. This seems to be the only set that isn't particularly popular in the series it seems

Brickaholic

AceCobra1 said:

Is the battle of 5 armies 79017 a good investment if I can get it for £30? Doesn't seem like it is a popular set but retired now so just thinking might be able to flip it during xmas time?

Yes it is.

AceCobra1

Just noticed Asda was doing the 79017 for £15 a while ago! Would have been a right bargain then!

Fletch1

Asda never had any stock online when they advised 79017 for £15 it had been long out of stock I check there site every morning at 6am

Rainstorm26

This threads gone pretty quiet. 

sir_Bricksalot

Lets fire back up the discussion then.  What are the thoughts on Tower of Orthanc?  Dont have one (wish I did) but secondary market prices have already gone crazy (IMO) on this one; here in the UK at least.  The way things are going I'd say double by x-mas but then likely plateau out there (all speculation obviously).

madforLEGO

I'm not sold on the LoTR or Hobbit lines, especially with how many of the LoTR sets-and Hobbit sets- have '(under)performed' after EOL. Now I'm sure the Tower should will go up, as Im sure there will be folks that want it after it is gone, but how many people really will want it and how much will it go up?
A good example for me is Battle on Weathertop. Theoretically these should be going for a lot because there are only two ring wraiths in it and you need multiple sets to complete them. However, that set was on clearance forever with TRU at about 56 USD and as a result they have not really gone up at all after they went away. I believe only 2 sets really went for more once EOL'd for LoTR, Battle at Helms deep and Urak Hai Army.
Heck the Orc Forge, which was the Target exclusive, is not going for much despite it is the only set that has the white hand armor.

LoTr and Hobbit aside, I'm just a bit 'bearish' on 200+ USD sets right now. Will they likely go up? Sure but there is always a larger risk with buying 200+ USD sets and what kind of return you will get (and how long it will take). On top of that, pile on the number of resellers stacking these sets and I see them not worth the effort (compared to the space and funds they tie up), same with most SW line sets.
Then again, maybe I'm just getting more careful in my old age.

goshe7

In general LoTR and Hobbit have suffered from an inability to match the AFOL expectations of magnificence matching the scale of that fantasy world with the standard LEGO pricing structure.  The prices suggest that purchasing multiple EOL sets just for the minifigs or army building is not a large market at all.  Therefore I think the winners out of this theme will be the sets that yield an awesome build.  Unexpected Gathering easily tops the list.  I would think ToO is closer to awesome build than something like Urak Hai Puny Wall of Bricks.

Sethro3

But to amass an army of uruk hai it is almost cheaper to buy that set than trying to get them individually. Believe me I've tried.

pharmjod

@samiam391 has nearly cornered the market on uruk hai and rohan soldiers :)

Rainstorm26

Any bets on the DS returning for real for more than an hour or is TLG just playing games with the "we're producing more" comment. 

Pitfall69

Sethro3 said:

But to amass an army of uruk hai it is almost cheaper to buy that set than trying to get them individually. Believe me I've tried.

I helped supply @samiam391 's army :) Those sets really weren't holding onto because they weren't going up in price like I thought they would. I'm sure Helm's Deep, Tower of Orthanc and Unexpected Gathering will do well enough to hang onto, but I do not expect much.

bluedragon

I was holding onto 3 Helms deep and 3 Uruk army sets to sell later on but I bought Brickstruct's instructions... Should have sold them while I could  :o