Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

dougts

really?

just checked - I'm only at 3210, got a long way to go to catch up to you Pitfall, and I even joined a full 11 months before you did

VorpalRyu

^ Felgercarb!!! I'm not even close to 1,000 comments yet!?!

xiahna

O.o ... Ok feeling like the quiet kid in the back of the class here... (37 posts now) 

Pitfall69

dougts said:

really?

just checked - I'm only at 3210, got a long way to go to catch up to you Pitfall, and I even joined a full 11 months before you did

Quality over quantity. How many of my comments are actually worthwile? :)

I still remember my first altercation in this forum; it was with the one and only @LegoFanTexas :)

BrickDancer

Oh my, I'm already at 2,800 comments myself which is surprising. Um make that 2,801 comments on the wall...

Pitfall69

I am not quite fully understanding the Death Star transition to "We are making more" to "Sold Out". When did it become available? 

FollowsClosely

Shorty yesterday.

bp10030

Yeah, time is over when you got the chance to get TH cheap^^

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

As I Stand here looking at the small pile of Tower Bridges I bought instead of the BIG pile of Imperial Flagships and the medium pile of Arkhams I bought  instead of the BIG pile of haunted houses and Horizons, the only thing that stops me from being physically sick is the TINY pile of Town Halls next to them...

TheLoneTensor

That small snapshot of your portfolio sounds relatively diversified to me.  Complaining that not every set of yours is hitting home runs leads me to believe you should reevaluate what you're trying to accomplish in this game.

prevere

Curious how LEGO is going to handle #10245 (Santa's Workshop) when it comes back this fall. The race is on for that sucker. I have a feeling it will be back to sold out/unavailable status very, very quickly. And I expect LEGO to have a 1 per household reserve on it too.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

@TheLoneTensor No disappointment here as I only ever 'stock up' if I have the cash or believe a quick enough turnaround justifies investing in the brick as opposed to much more 'normal' investments. As any reselling money filters straight back into LEGO purchases, it's the lack of a more rapid expansion in my overall collection that disappoints.  More just lamenting bad choices (as in both of my examples where I zigged instead of zagging). The only one that REALLY bites was the Tower Bridge/ imperial Flagship scenario as I could have got 3 flagships per Tower Bridge....but someone (rather stupidly) concluded that due to the lack of an evergreen Pirates line (and the gap left by BP/QAR) that the IF was going to be sitting on shelf a LOT longer than what it was! The small stack of TH at least shows me I learnt a lesson there!

goshe7

^ I don't know how much of the unavailability was driven by demand, and how much was limited supply due to the port worker strike issue.  

Of course I'm betting on demand as I was picking them up through March as they became available at various times.  

TheLoneTensor

3 Flagships per Tower Bridge?  How?

There will always be dogs for sure.  The hard part is dumping those dogs and moving forward with other opportunities.

FatMatt

I recall purchasing my Flagships for $140 I believe, though they were probably available for less, but the TB was also readily available around the same time for at least $180, so the math doesn't really add up.

Farmer_John

^Hey @FatMatt - Does "TB" = "TH"?

In the US, there were times that the TH was available for roughly $150. I remember picking up the IF from S@H for about $130 with all the discounts stacked during the BF sale of 2011. I always knew the IF was going to be a winner...I just didn't bet on it accordingly.

TheLoneTensor

^ Ah fall 2011, we look back upon you with such longing.

Farmer_John

^Yep...back when exclusives could be had for much less exorbitant prices. TLG now has us trained us to salivate over a free polybag. How far we have come...

FollowsClosely

Farmer_John said:

...How far we have come...

Yep. If you where not getting BOGO (or better), then you where doing it wrong.

HaleAFOL

is there a list anywhere of lego sets that are being discontinued?

samiam391

Farmer_John said:

^Yep...back when exclusives could be had for much less exorbitant prices. TLG now has us trained us to salivate over a free polybag. How far we have come...

Let us all pray that the day we salivate over a free Chima speedorz never comes...

SlapNuts

HaleAFOL said:

is there a list anywhere of lego sets that are being discontinued?

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

Bumblepants

Raptor Escape is back from the grave on S@H US

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

Raptor Escape is back from the grave on S@H US

Is it returning to Wal-Mart!?!?

The plot thickens...

SumoLego

The Exo-Suit is on that 'retiring soon' list.  That made me smile...

BrickDancer

The Horde must be so confused, first the DS and now Raptor Escape. Buwahaha!

Bumblepants

SumoLego said:

Bumblepants said:

Raptor Escape is back from the grave on S@H US

Is it returning to Wal-Mart!?!?

The plot thickens...

I have seen it red-labeled at several WalMart locations and that typically indicates they are no longer going to have a slot for it on the shelving planogram. I still think this set will disappear before the rest of the line does. Will be interesting to see how long S@H keeps it going.

SumoLego

I didn't see it at my local Lego Store, either.  Very curious.

It makes me want to pick up a few more...

SumoLego

I never trust the plan-o-grams because Wal-Mart, TRU and K-Mart do a horrible job of inventory management.  There can be cases of old sets strewn about the overstock and improperly packed-out.

Target is pretty good, so I tend to take those seriously.  If something disappears off of the shelf and plan-o-gram (Zombies), I take notice.

FatMatt

Farmer_John said: ^Hey @FatMatt - Does "TB" = "TH"?

I don't get it. Sorry, I am missing what you are asking me.

SumoLego

I think @Farmer_John is just confused with the shorthand.

TH = Town Hall
TB= Tower Bridge?

TB = Tuberculosis?

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

dougts said:

really?

just checked - I'm only at 3210, got a long way to go to catch up to you Pitfall, and I even joined a full 11 months before you did

Quality over quantity. How many of my comments are actually worthwile? :)

I still remember my first altercation in this forum; it was with the one and only @LegoFanTexas :)

Altercation?  I hate when that happens...  I hear there is a pill you can take for that...  now...  was it the red pill or the blue pill?

Hmm...

LegoFanTexas

dougts said:

really?

just checked - I'm only at 3210, got a long way to go to catch up to you Pitfall, and I even joined a full 11 months before you did

I have 8,165 comments, and I took a year off from the forums...  Is this a good or bad thing?   :#

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

dougts said:

really?

just checked - I'm only at 3210, got a long way to go to catch up to you Pitfall, and I even joined a full 11 months before you did

I have 8,165 comments, and I took a year off from the forums...  Is this a good or bad thing?   :#

It is a good thing and means that you are a contributor to the community :) 

AustinPowers

bp10030 said:

Yeah, time is over when you got the chance to get TH cheap^^

Hi, Forum newbie here.

At first I thought these prices in the screenshot can't be for real. I mean hey, TH or HH for 89.99 Euro, HExp for 49.99? No way.
But today I saw that #70816 is available again at Lego S@H Germany for 49.99 Euro after having been "Sold Out" for several weeks. So much for sets that are supposedly "Sold Out".

Farmer_John

BrickDancer said:

The Horde must be so confused, first the DS and now Raptor Escape. Buwahaha!

Just because S@H is making more doesn't indicate how long it will be available when they actually arrive.

That said, I was shocked that TLG would EOL their flagship set (DS) with the new movie coming out. Now an upgrade makes sense because the movie might even get people who own the old version to bite on grabbing a newer version...especially around Christmas.

As for the Raptor Escape, it's a relatively small set and TLG could have brought it back in 6 months if they wanted to with little notice (except for the reselling community). I know I certainly wouldn't have been kicking myself for missing the Raptor set if I had missed it.

goshe7

I think several of the JW sets (Indominus Rex, T-Rex Tracker, Raptor Escape) are selling better than anticipated.  Around me, either of the large sets is very difficult to find at any retail store.  I'm not sure any store has had a restock from the initial stock.

I wouldn't be surprised if TLG had already scheduled a second production run of many JW sets prior to the gift-giving season and we are just seeing the effects from a mismatch between actual and expected demand.

Farmer_John

goshe7 said:

I'm not sure any store has had a restock from the initial stock.

I'm not sure about TLG, but the Walmarts near me seemed to be replenishing the JW sets periodically. In fact, the Raptor escape was definitely replenished after it was sold out at S@H. Just an observation.

SumoLego

There have been a number of restocks since the release and since the movie came out.  Often, the department managers can request more stock from their local warehouse completely on the fly.

(Sometimes, if the stock is gone in one local warehouse, they'll be automatically requesitioned from another.)

madforLEGO

I think of many of the soon to EOL sets the VW Camper has the most staying power and ability to climb based on its cult status.

AustinPowers said:

bp10030 said:

Yeah, time is over when you got the chance to get TH cheap^^

Hi, Forum newbie here.

At first I thought these prices in the screenshot can't be for real. I mean hey, TH or HH for 89.99 Euro, HExp for 49.99? No way.
But today I saw that #70816 is available again at Lego S@H Germany for 49.99 Euro after having been "Sold Out" for several weeks. So much for sets that are supposedly "Sold Out".

The last few years LEGO has a tendency to leave long EOL sets on their site, and consequently they go on 'sale' sometimes, but are long gone before the sale. However, most stores if not all are out of stocks. Theories to why this is vary. Everything to allowing for stores that still may have stock clear it off their shelves, to something regarding return values, or to just making those who missed out on those sets cry wondering why they did not see them available for that price m(as they would have bought them).
I personally think it is in case stores still have them for sale, but there are holes to that theory, as to the others as well..

FollowsClosely

January? Really?

Brickarmor

^All production is hogged by the new DS. ;)

Ronyar

#10236 Ewok Village is one I've been on the fence about for a long time.  I will probably end up kicking myself for not buying it, but there are only so many $$ to go around.  

Farmer_John

I have to admit I like #10214 (the Tower Bridge), but I am surprised at how long it's remained available (almost 5 years now). To put things into perspective, it came out the same year as the #10210 Imperial Flagship and the year after the #10194 Emerald Night...both of which are now long gone.

I'm still on the fence as to how well it will do once it's EOL'd, mainly because it's a large set and my guess is that other large sets tend to become a higher purchasing priority. I would certainly grab #10236 EV before I would pick up the TB.

My hunch is that those who grabbed the TB before TLG killed deals on exclusives should do okay, assuming they were able to get good deals. But I would shy away from the TB set as a reseller if you are considering grabbing it at retail.

prevere

FollowsClosely said:

January? Really?

Does Lego know Xmas is in Dec?

piratemania7

I think TB has been out too long to really "catch anyone off guard".  I also think that a retail price of $200+ USD makes this a hard set to see move a lot in the aftermarket.

With that said, when it does EOL like any other LEGO set, additional interest will be peeked and if memory serves me right TB is in the top 5 or 10 largest LEGO sets of all time in terms of piece count. That will certainly add to the allure and desire to source by some in the aftermarket.

Vortex

Tower Bridge :

• 4300 pieces - $240

• Completed model measures an impressive 40" (102 cm) long, 17" (45 cm) high and 10" (26 cm) wide.

To me irrespective of the many small pieces it comprises of , this one is under priced. This set if it came out today would likely be in the $300-330 region. 

It is of the same lineage as the Taj Mahal and Eiffel Tower and competes with them in iconicity.

I don't see the $200 mark as a barrier( mentioned above) at all for this or others. In fact any given day like today among the top 25 sold set at Shop@home (us) are 4 $200 sets, 6 if we include 150+ sets . Not to mention there are many that might have made the list if they were not already sold out or out of stock . This is a sign of the times. People are spending more than every before on Lego which is translated by Lego pounding us with bigger sets and they seem to have figured out that $200 is the safe Big number.

We have the SSD an example . It has crossed the 1k mark on Amazon. This was a mammoth many disliked. Its discontinuation is a thing of recent memory. 

I am by no means an expert , i am not even a reseller for that matter, but my mind tells me this maybe one the best kept secrets for/from this thread. 

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

My apologies for capitalising set names - if I try to remember them by sets numbers I invariably end up trying to take money out of the hole in wall by typing in a Mobile Crane Mk 11 or a Unimog...
Calculations for three IF's for the price of a TB as follows;
keep in mind prices are in Australian dollars, sets were bought at 3 for the price of 2 (and I'm pretty sure that the IF were incorrectly priced at $99 instead of $109 or $119 that they should have been;
TB - 259.99 ($173.32 after 3 for 2)
IF - $99.99 (66.66 after 3 for two)
so, while not EXACTLY three IF's per TB it does comes pretty close! 
Still happy (great prices for great pieces that I now have in collection) yes - I'll double my money on the TB's that I have but it would have been HEAPS nicer to have 3 times the item count where I would have made my money back tenfold on each item...yeah I know - First World Problems...

xiahna

Anyone notice that Duplo is starting to gain popularity in the after market also? No where near as much but I was surprised when I saw what they are selling for on e-bay.

pharmjod

Duplo has always done well in the aftermarket if you picked the right sets. :)