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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I looks like the Tie Fighter from "The Force Awakens" will be significantly different than the old tie fighter. This shouldn't cut into the aftermarket too much.
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    ^What??  I've only been out of my dark ages for three years?  how was I to know it wouldn't be out forever?????   (sorry, just practicing.  Too soon?) 
    ShibBumblepantskhmellymelSirBenFarmer_JohnGoldchainssnowhitieshikadi
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,421
    I've got my excuse lined up...

    "But I've been too busy buying all the reduced Chima sets, now I can't get a Death Star?!!?" ;-)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Shib said:
    I've got my excuse lined up...

    "But I've been too busy buying all the reduced Chima sets, now I can't get a Death Star?!!?" ;
     That's kind of true.  My wife would be very upset if she knew that I spent $400 on a Death Star.  But she doesn't have a problem when I score 70% clearance sets... even if long term it adds up.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited July 2015
    vasp said:

    Alright. Coming back to topic.

    Folks. The DS finally shows call for availability at lego.com

    What this means no one knows. Looks like amazon, target, walmart still have stock

    If the DS does actually go, anyone who complains that they missed it should be banned from Brickset. :*

    I won't complain.  But even after being impressed at finally seeing the DS built in person, I still can't pull the trigger on a $400 toy.  I'm not sure where I'd even display it.
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Ditto, though let us forget what I have paid for other retired sets or what some sets in the cupboard are now worth.  If it was reduced by a mere 10-15% I might pull the trigger, but then only because it would seem like a bargain.  Obviously I could have bought one at that price before but chose not to.  Life is so simple.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    I think it would hilarious to see DS go just before EP7 comes out, driving demand sky-high and reaching a $1,000 by Xmas.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I always crack up when people say "Lego in the cupboard". I picture someome going to get a glass and have to push some Ecto-1's over to reach them ;)
    VorpalRyujuggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    I just pooped myself.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyumadforLEGODougoutGoldchains
  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    Sold out? Already? Why, oh, why did I buy 99 copies of Nurp-Naut instead? 
    Pitfall69VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    prevere said:
    I just pooped myself.
    I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing ponies ;)
    prevereSumoLegoGothamConstructionCo
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Queue the Chinese copy popping up on eBay.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    richl said:
    #10188 now Sold out on US S&H. It will be a day long remembered...
    So, when is the Amazon countdown party ?
    Pitfall69roxioBumblepantspharmjodbluedragonrichlpreverebrickupdateGoldchains
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,105
    vasp said:

    Alright. Coming back to topic.

    Folks. The DS finally shows call for availability at lego.com

    What this means no one knows. Looks like amazon, target, walmart still have stock


    richl said:
    #10188 now Sold out on US S&H. It will be a day long remembered...
    So, when is the Amazon countdown party ?

    Yeah, I would imagine most retail stocks are going to be gone in the next day or two, if not sooner.  Heck seeing that it was call for availability at [email protected] and now it STILL is at Amazon is pretty amazing, unless folks are waiting for the Prime day or something
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316
    Who wants a DS? Still on the AU [email protected] :D
    xiahna
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316

    Guess we don't get the last three UA sets cause we ain't bought enuff DS sets... :wink: 
    xiahna
  • ISDAvengerISDAvenger Member Posts: 205
    richl said:
    #10188 now Sold out on US S&H. It will be a day long remembered...
    I guess we all saw this day coming, I just didnt expect it to be this soon. I figured at least another year or so.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited July 2015
    Isn't it in the last catalog? And the next big question, who is the next DS...out forever with no signs of retiring?

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    My vote is Pet Shop 
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    ^ 10220 may be? :#
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    edited July 2015
    With the DS sold out in the U.S. I'm guessing October it will be gone in the UK (hopefully
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    DS still available at Walmart, Target and Amazon. (Not on Toysrus apparently). They seem to have a limit of 2 per order at Target and Amazon, and 5 at Walmart.  Should make it a little harder to clear them out quickly. ( depending on if they allow multiple orders of the same item of course.). 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,066
    prevere said:
    Isn't it in the last catalog? And the next big question, who is the next DS...out forever with no signs of retiring?

    I suppose the Tower Bridge?  The Opera House would normally be my vote, but I'm sure the licensing agreement with SOH would run out before the sets.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited July 2015
    I predict DS will be gone from every US source within 48 hours or less. Will be interesting to watch.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    I don't plan on complaining about missing it. $400 is a tough pill to swallow. Plus with severely outdated minifigures, I'd be disappointed with what I was buying at that price.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    pharmjod said:
    I predict DS will be gone from every US source within 48 hours or less. Will be interesting to watch.
    And predictions for release of an updated version...
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,290
    I do hope there is an updated version... my excuse is that I've been in uni practically the entire time I've been out of my dark ages *sigh*
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Personally I think the rumors of an updated death star are hogwash, but I am happy to be proven wrong.
    juggles7
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    10188 is going to be tough to replace.  Its got more "playability" than any other SW Lego set by a long shot.  So what could they put out that would kill aftermarket demand for this version?

    1)  The exact same set but with better/updated minifigs.  Probably not going to happen, but possible I guess.  This option would probably kill demand for 10188 the most.
    2)  A better version with more playability?  I guess thats possible.  Maybe my imagination stinks, but I think that would be tough to do without making it a larger set, probably in the $600+ range and I doubt they'd put out that big of a set.
    3) A remake of 10143 Death Star II? which might make a better display set but no play features?  That won't kill demand for 10188.
    4) Maybe there is a new death star in episode VII and they could make a similar scale 10188 remake with new rooms and new minifigs.  That would be pretty cool, but might not really kill demand for 10188 since it would be a different death star.

    I'm excited about whatever they do put out.

    I think a great option would be for them to make a "modular" death star.  They could release many different sets (10 or more) over time that you could eventually fit together to form a sphere like the current model.  Maybe make them so you could take out and replace different rooms/floors as you desired.  That would be really fun but would take lots of planning and each model/room would need to be an odd slice of a sphere for it to all work out.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited July 2015
    ^^The rumor would be a good way to keep the remaining stock online from clearing out ASAP though.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Is the new Death Star even in Episode 7?

    If not, I don't see a better time to kill the behemoth and replace it with another big set actually relevant to the story.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I notice Pet Shop is now "temporarily out of stock" at Lego Shop at Home -USA. It's joining the ranks of Simpson House and Santa's Workshop, in that regard.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I personally don't think there will be a replacement for the Death Star; even if they did, it would probably be more expensive. If people aren't willing to shell out $400 for it now, they definitely won't if it is more expensive. Lego has 3 new Star Wars movies and a slew of new ships, playsets and minifigures to promote. Throw the Rouge One and Han Solo anthologies in and there won't be much room for OT and Prequel Sets. 
    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    Shib said:
    I've got my excuse lined up...

    "But I've been too busy buying all the reduced Chima sets, now I can't get a Death Star?!!?" ;-)
    Perhaps you should be banned from Brickset just for admitting that you buy Chima sets too... ;)
    VorpalRyuSumoLegoRsa33
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,066
    ^ Except the two-of-a-kind super Chima set of Destiny.

    I'm telling you my Galidor action figures will be worth something!
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645

    I think a great option would be for them to make a "modular" death star.  They could release many different sets (10 or more) over time that you could eventually fit together to form a sphere like the current model.  Maybe make them so you could take out and replace different rooms/floors as you desired.  That would be really fun but would take lots of planning and each model/room would need to be an odd slice of a sphere for it to all work out.
    That sounds great until a group of resellers all decide to pick the same room and buy out as much stock as they can. Non-one else can complete the set (at least at reasonable cost) and it leaves customers unhappy that lego messed up the production, (from the customer point of view) making one set rare and virtually unavailable.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Death Star sold out at Amazon
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    Still a while to go for Europe. There is 3-4 weeks' worth assuming recent sales rates and no restocking. It's interesting to see that they seem to have been regularly restocking weekly (apart from the no stock time during May/June).
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Interestingly the graph is only visible on the set page if you're logged into the main page and not if you're not. I was looking for it earlier and wondered why I couldn't see it.

    Assuming sales don't suddenly explode (it is a Death Star..) then I think this proves to me at least that reselling is still relatively small scale in comparison on this side of the pond.
  • ^ 4th May killed that stock.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    Yes, they make sure they have large stocks of may SW sets before 4th May. They often sell months' worth of stock in those few days. It is interesting to see the time taken to replenish the stock. There is a good six weeks there with nothing, yet replenishing it seems to occur weekly normally.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    leego76 said:
    Interestingly the graph is only visible on the set page if you're logged into the main page and not if you're not. I was looking for it earlier and wondered why I couldn't see it.

    Assuming sales don't suddenly explode (it is a Death Star..) then I think this proves to me at least that reselling is still relatively small scale in comparison on this side of the pond.
    My personal opinion is that it is much bigger here in the U.S. As mentioned above, Amazon is already also out of stock on the Death Star. I doubt that's collectors or kids getting those sets for them to sell out so quickly. 

    I feel like the next two to go would be Pet Shop and Red Five, although Pet Shop is proving so popular it may last a little while longer. It does sort of seem like Lego is just putting out small production runs of that set to try and keep up with demand.

    I can't decide if I want Red Five or not. I've looked at the instructions and it does just feel like a much bigger version of the last X-Wing that was released, which I have. Plus I'm not thrilled about a stickered windscreen. On the other hand, any new UCS X-Wing would be based on the newer movies. 

    Ewok Village could be on its way out too. That's a set I'll probably miss just because outside of the mini-figures there isn't much in it that appeals to me. If I hit the lottery or get a bonus check or something I might finally pull the trigger, but a couple of trees attached with a rope bridge doesn't interest me too much. 
    VorpalRyuRsa33
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    This is a day that many of us have long waited for in this thread! Death Star is now out of stock on LEGO.com, Amazon, Target, and Wal-Mart. I placed my order at Target yesterday and received my shipping confirmation. Just under the wire!
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    ^ Only in the US. It is still available elsewhere.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^Exactly, it was sold out in the UK for nearly two weeks not that long ago. no one seemed to acknowledge it. Sells out in the US and thats it. Its 100% retired.
    hewman
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316
    ^ I still suspect we're missing out on the last three UA sets because we haven't bought enough DS sets, EU & AU, get to it... /sarc
    xiahna
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