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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,151

    You're right, that's why I don't claim to be an expert on anything.  The only advice that I push around here is to not take anyone's advice at face value, let alone my ramblings.  Do your research and minimize your own risk for your own situation.
    Agreed, it sounds a bit trite, but if you go into a place asking for tips where you would be competing with those that benefit the most (ie asking 'big r' resellers about tips for you to join their 'club'), expect dubious info from some of those folks IMO.
    I'm not saying that all people in the forum are like this, but some comments made here really cross my eyes. The scarier thing is people listening to those comments as if they are the rule, not just an opinion, which is really bad.
    Now, common sense would dictate to take any 'advice' with a grain of salt, but some do not understand that. I can only imagine how many new resellers got sucked into buying dogs because someone 'in the know' told them that they are 'cannot miss' sets.

  • jdylakjdylak Member Posts: 281
    I'm not jumping on the #75920 wagon yet. All the stores around me have lots of them. I could still get one today on eBay for $45 shipped.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2015
    My Lego store had a bunch today, and I passed.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Sounds like the Horde is gonna get burned soon upon next batch release. It's like the Exo-Suit fake out Part 2.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,769
    jdylak said:
    I'm not jumping on the #75920 wagon yet. All the stores around me have lots of them. I could still get one today on eBay for $45 shipped.
    I'm not surprised. Its a pretty crummy wagon in that set :-)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Now, if we were talking the T-Rex set, and it was on rollback to say $60, I would be all for stocking that.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited July 2015
    CCC said:
    jdylak said:
    I'm not jumping on the #75920 wagon yet. All the stores around me have lots of them. I could still get one today on eBay for $45 shipped.
    I'm not surprised. Its a pretty crummy wagon in that set :-)
    i concur. my opinion take it with a grain of salt the "raptors" in this set are very very clumsy. i mean when you have the other better looking raptors why would you go after less sophisticated looking charlie and echo.
     
    i would go for other JW sets than #75920. but who knows what will happen so i did get 1 for personal copy just in case this becomes #21104 :smile: 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    #75920 is strictly a gamble for most I would assume. Returnable within 90 days if price doesn't go up. Pretty much no risk of you are willing to tie up some money for a little bit.
    Farmer_Johngoshe7
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    pharmjod said:
    #75920 is strictly a gamble for most I would assume. Returnable within 90 days if price doesn't go up. Pretty much no risk of you are willing to tie up some money for a little bit.
    I have a feeling this set is going to suddenly be abundant in about 70 days :)
  • mrbigz8657mrbigz8657 Member Posts: 21
    It looks like everything on Jurassic world was restocked on SAH except 75920 and the T. rex set. 
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,034

    EV limit at shop at home US reduced from 5 to 1. The end may be near.



    brickupdateFarmer_JohnmadforLEGOprevereDougoutBrickarmor
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    edited July 2015
    EV? Ewok Village?
    brickupdateFollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    CCC said:
    jdylak said:
    I'm not jumping on the #75920 wagon yet. All the stores around me have lots of them. I could still get one today on eBay for $45 shipped.
    I'm not surprised. Its a pretty crummy wagon in that set :-)
    i concur. my opinion take it with a grain of salt the "raptors" in this set are very very clumsy. i mean when you have the other better looking raptors why would you go after less sophisticated looking charlie and echo.
     
    i would go for other JW sets than #75920. but who knows what will happen so i did get 1 for personal copy just in case this becomes #21104 :smile: 
    Actually, I find the color scheme on the Raptors in set #75920 to be more pleasing than the ones in the more readily available #75917. (But that's just me.) ;-)
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    I did a store pick up for 75920 and it said only 2 left in stock. It has since been sold out. Thankfully I got the one. I'm not planning on reselling it, but I missed out on most of the Dino sets from 2012 so I thought I should try to pick some up (even though they are ridiculously expensive). But looking at each raptor on Bricklink going for $15-18, I figured a $40 set with 2 plus other bricks/figures would be the smart way to go.

    Is the T-Rex the same mold as previous, just new color scheme?
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    ^ Yes, the T-Rex is the same exact mold as the Dino Hunters one.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,978
    So the Raptor Escape had a red 'we won't be restocking this' sticker on the shelf at WalMart today....
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    Apparently this line might become 'extinct' prematurely. ;)
    bluedragonTheLoneTensormatticus_bricks
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^^ yellow tag and about a dozen at the WM I stopped by today.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    So the Raptor Escape had a red 'we won't be restocking this' sticker on the shelf at WalMart today....
    And the plot thickens... Think I'll pick up another pair.
    Crownie said:
    Apparently this line might become 'extinct' prematurely. ;)
    Seems very unlikely. Remember Raptor Escape is an exclusive, available only at Walmart and at [email protected] (assuming [email protected] gets it back in stock). Just because the Target-exclusive Zombies set retired early didn't mean the entire Monster Fighters line did so.  The movie is a hit and there will be plenty of demand for the sets this holiday season. There's clearly a buck to be made. They'd be silly to pull the plug early. 
    madforLEGO
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2015
    It's not like Lego can just instantly make more of any given set, much less get them distributed across an ocean without major logistical effort.  To tap into a production schedule that is already a) extremely tight and b) scheduled out months in advance is a massive effort.  Yes they might make more, but even if they do (and there's no telling that yet), it'll be months before you see them on shelves again.

    Btw @Sethro3, like most every other dino in the JW line, the T-rex mold is identical to the Dino line yes, but the printing and colors are different.
    pharmjodgoshe7SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    @TheLoneTensor is correct on that - production runs are very tightly scheduled and the don't just 'dust off the machines' and do another production run.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    If you think there's an impending long-term shortage of Jurassic sets, then by all means, start buying them all up. 'Course I might not be as smart as you guys, what with your inside information on production schedules, but nonetheless, I think that would be a really bad idea. Aside from Raptor Escape, if you're accumulating Jurassic sets, you're about 2 years too early. 
    prevere
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    The Lego Retail Store in Victor, NY didn't have any, and they didn't expect any replacements anytime soon.

    Very peculiar...
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    Any new insight on PS?
  • jonboy2000jonboy2000 Member Posts: 244
    edited July 2015
    20% off all JW sets in Metro mall TRU Vancouver today and they had plenty of T-rex/Raptor sets.
     
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    None of the Targets, TRU or Walmarts in my area have any of the Escape.  They've got piles of everything else.

    Very odd...
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^ Raptor escape is a Walmart exclusive.
    SumoLego
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    If any of the big JW sets are looking like theyll be out of stock come oct, those will pop for Xmas.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Just a month ago Hulk-buster was in short supply and prices rose accordingly for a brief period. Now, supply has caught up with demand and there are plenty to go around. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    It's funny, Target does have an ID number, but yes, I meant that all of the Walmarts in my area the sets are gone.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    I posted this in another thread, but thought it also related to this thread... Chinese custom made Green Grocer and Cafe Corner sets. 

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-Copy-lego-10185-Green-Grocer-Modular-Building-Set-RARE-RETIRED-Town-City-/252025090718?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3aadddb29e

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-Made-lego-10182-Cafe-Corner-Modular-Building-Set-RARE-RETIRED-Town-City-/252025061171?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3aaddd3f33

    Should we see the trend continue with Chinese customs of retired sets, I think the secondary market could be hurt. 
    MrJ_NY
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I just can't see myself paying almost $300 for a GG knock-off...even if I was desperate to have the GG. Maybe I'm just a purist.
    SumoLegoPitfall69madforLEGOGothamConstructionCo
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    No but I'd pay $50-$100 if the quality was decent and I suspect many others would.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    ^ Agreed.  I can't imagine the quality is anywhere near acceptable for one to pay $300.00.

    Bricklinking it is probably near as expensive utilizing lower-cost replacement pieces.

    I suppose the flip side is that plenty of folks own fake watches and handbags...
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    samiam391 said:
    I posted this in another thread, but thought it also related to this thread... Chinese custom made Green Grocer and Cafe Corner sets. 

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-Copy-lego-10185-Green-Grocer-Modular-Building-Set-RARE-RETIRED-Town-City-/252025090718?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3aadddb29e

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-Made-lego-10182-Cafe-Corner-Modular-Building-Set-RARE-RETIRED-Town-City-/252025061171?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3aaddd3f33

    Should we see the trend continue with Chinese customs of retired sets, I think the secondary market could be hurt. 
    I love the attention to detail here. Listing says "Coffee Corner"...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Give it time. If they sell some of these, they will make more. The quality will improve and the price will probably come down. LEGO may eventually rue the day it turned to China for its manufacturing needs. 
    MrJ_NYcloaked7
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,922
    pharmjod said:
    Give it time. If they sell some of these, they will make more. The quality will improve and the price will probably come down. LEGO may eventually rue the day it turned to China for its manufacturing needs. 
    It doesn't make a lick of difference where LEGO manufactures its parts. There have been incredibly accurate Chinese-made knock-offs of Bionicle sets since well before LEGO started manufacturing in China. The plastic quality was inferior, of course, but that goes without saying even today. Compare the color quality of the bricks in this photo. Companies that care more about making a quick buck than about integrity don't have any reason to waste money on perfecting their bricks' quality, and if anyone could consistently reduce the production cost of a brick without any reduction in quality, then don't you think LEGO would already be taking advantage of that?

    As technology improves, it becomes easier and easier to replicate LEGO bricks and packaging no matter WHERE you are in proximity to the original molding site, and as LEGO products become more and more lucrative, knock-off companies have more and more incentive to mimic their wares. Blaming the LEGO Group for the inevitable opportunists who want to cash in on their success doesn't make sense any way you slice it.
    SumoLego
  • 12651265 The Great State of TexasMember Posts: 1,013
    juggles7 said:
    I urge everyone to abstain from supporting counterfeit products. Don't support fake products!
    I agree.  However, TLG own business model is leaning to profit vs quality.  TLGs own manufacturing is being suspect in providing a cheaper and less quality product.  This is evident by examining the bricks for color, fitment, feel, and durability (cracks).  Their outsourcing is a big problem.
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Denver 4800 miles to BillundMember Posts: 2,603
    ^ Can I "like" your comment twice?
    Rainstorm26
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Agreed all around on the ickyness of knockoffs.

    That being written, there could be one day where a "knockoff" has better design and quality than Lego.  That would be an interesting day.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    Being a Lego purist has nothing to do with it; you aren't buying Lego. I do not mind customs if you are making them yourself and if you are using Lego, but these Chinese companies are ripping off Lego. I wouldn't put a fake Cafe Corner or Green Grocer next to my other modulars becsuse they aren't Lego.
    Actually, that's what I meant by using the word "purist." I prefer that my Lego sets are actually made by Lego...and BLing counts as long as it's all Lego parts.

    I still remember the first knock-off set I intentionally purchased from Amazon as a Christmas gift for my daughter:

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00264FJTA?psc=1&redirect=true&ref_=oh_aui_search_detailpage

    I cannot overstate just how bad the quality of this set was. Furthermore, I cannot imagine ever being persuaded that non-Lego parts produced in China are anywhere near the quality of those produced by TLG.

    Throwing $300, $100 or $50 at a non-Lego GG? Never gonna happen in my house. Might as well just flush the money down the toilet.
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    This cracks me up.  At least they are honest.

    Durable, similar material but required care during using and playing. However, they are not as perfect as Lego bricks and BUILDING IS NOT EASY! 
    Pitfall69GuroooShibAanchir
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    I am going to agree in that overall quality impacts knock-offs. All it takes is someone buying one just once to see how bad quality might be to never buy one again. I even generally avoid knock-offs sold in the big box stores that are generally on the Lego aisle, because the quality is simply not the same. I can not see sets like this ever having as real impact on the secondary market. Those that are familiar enough with the green grocer, are going to be large Lego fans to begin with, and assumably understand the quality such a set would have.

    I will say, though, there is a very recent exception for me in regards to some popular little yellow creatures a competitor has.  The quality on the brick is still not there, but the individual figures have been a ton of fun, and the builds have been enjoyable. . I have a really awesome little island theme going populated by those little guys and rounded off with some Lego bricks.

    I think what I learned is that I am willing to spend a bit of money and accept a bit of a quality drop to get characters I can use to make a nice little MOC. I really am still surprised Lego did not get this particular theme. Again, though, this has no impact on Lego aftermarket sales. 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I don't know. If a company started selling these for <$100 and the quality was comparable to kre-o or mega bloks I can see people buying it just to have the building in a display or for play purposes. I don't think it is a stretch to think it might have an impact on the secondary market eventually.
    TheLoneTensorVortexdougts
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    It should also be noted that the sophistication of Lego pieces has increased since the '90's.

    Nobody likes cracking 1x1 cheese wedges, but when I started with Lego, the most sophisticated piece was a regular 1x1.

    Despite bite marks and 30 years of wear, everything remains in good working order...
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,292
    I lived in China for a year and the shopping (even the regular, high end shopping centres, unless it's a name brand western store) are flooded with knock-offs of, for example, designer handbags.  What I found however is that it's mainly extremely cheap, very poor quality stuff.  Basically the "use once and throw it away" variety, and some don't even last the once use.  The thing is, you can get great quality knock offs, but the good quality stuff is nearly as expensive as the real thing anyway, and at that point, I'd rather get the real thing.  

    (As an off topic, I will also say, it is extremely difficult not to buy knock offs if you live in China.  Like... say you need a bag.  ANY bag will do, you don't need nor want a logo.  But you can't actually get one that doesn't have some sort of branding on it.  EVERY rucksack says Adidas, Nike, whatever... so to avoid it I shopped at H&M, only because it H&M China it's SO much more expensive than even buying in the UK!  /rantover).
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    edited July 2015

    Alright. Coming back to topic.

    Folks. The DS finally shows call for availability at lego.com

    What this means no one knows. Looks like amazon, target, walmart still have stock

  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    Really! the DS is call to check.... wow wtf? I am surviving the set #10188 !?! btw: This is the last set out of the old line #101XX
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