Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

pharmjod

Diggydoes said:

I know everybody's making the occasional "brickpicker-joke"from time to time,but is their community really that strong that they can clean out for example wal-marts stock of the #75920 in such a short time? Seems kinda scary to me!

Yes. I watched Town Hall go from well over a thousand units at Wal-Mart online to 0 in the matter of hours after the big boys there decided it was actually going. Over $20,000 in sales in just a few hours on one set.

Farmer_John

thedingman5 said:

So, #75920 is "Sold Out" on [email protected] US already.  Not out of stock, but straight up sold out.  Is that typical for a new release to go that fast?

I don't know about Brickpicker, but I first heard about #75920 potentially being gone from the attached post in this thread by @thedingman5. I was able to purchase one from our local Walmart and there were several more to be had...until later in the day. There are still a few around, but they are going fast.

pharmjod said:

I think with #75920 there are a large number of resellers trying to buy for pickup to hedge their bets. Wal-Mart holds the pick up for a week and you have 90 days to return the set of it turns out to be restocked. Pretty much a no risk proposition. That is likely messing with Wal-Mart's inventory in the short time.

Agreed! The first thing I did when I saw @thedingman5's post was to make sure I got a copy by ordering it online for pick-up in the store. Then I just had to keep my fingers crossed that the shelves didn't empty before the Wal-Mart staff filled the order. Even if it comes back into stock, I'll still keep the copy I purchased because I kind of like the dinosaur sets.

prevere

Buy the raptors up. More trexes for me.

SumoLego

I suppose they'll stop comfort eating if their pants don't fit.

prevere

Wonder if other JW sets will fade out faster than usual?

SamuraiPete

I made a run by a few Walmart and all of them had #75920 in stock.  I don't know how to read bar codes for production run information but the item number is 610335 and the bar code is 7341923445.  

BuriedinBricks

Popped in to the closest WalMart on a whim to see if they still had #75920 on the shelves. There was a single copy, but it had been ripped open and the raptors stolen.

Oh well, I guess I'll live without a JP set I had not even really planned on buying in the first place.

TheLoneTensor

I felt the exact same about the Arctic supply Plane, but still would have liked to have gotten ahead of that one.

prevere

Even, if it is done for good. I think the ceiling on #75920 has been hit at $60 on ebay. 

Bumblepants

^Unlikely for a ceiling. If only for the fact that it jumped $20 in a week or so shows it has enough draw to keep climbing. Assuming another production run doesn't happen at least.

pharmjod

I expect to see another batch. However, if it is already pushing $60, there will be easy money to be made if that batch takes a few months.

Farmer_John

I wonder if it's possible TLG is simply letting Walmart be the exclusive distributor of #75920. If that's the case, then the price will come down soon enough...especially when everyone who ran out to purchase several copies begins returning them to the stores.

prevere

boy, that sold out tag is so tricky. I can see it going either way.

pharmjod

Farmer_John said:

I wonder if it's possible TLG is simply letting Walmart be the exclusive distributor of #75920. If that's the case, then the price will come down soon enough...especially when everyone who ran out to purchase several copies begins returning them to the stores.

Not saying its not possible, but when has that ever happened before? Has it? I mean yes, TRU has kept things beyond when they are gone from LEGO's site but that is as much a function of the TRU tax as anything. 

Pmh

mathew said:

White 1x1 crack like crazy.  So do most cheese slopes.  I have seen it with other sized bricks as well.  The plastic just isn't as durable as it was years ago.  Now surprisingly my USC Imperial Shuttle never showed any signs of cracking.  But the Space Shuttle Expedition that I had was a mess.  Almost every slope in that set cracked on me.  I sold it right after Lego sent me replacements.

was wondering if I was alone in this but guess am not.

To me it feels as if lego uses a different plastic then some years ago but people assured me it has been the same plastic for the last 30 years?

I have not had any bricks crack yet but they all do feel different (and less durable) then I remember then from earlier years.

VorpalRyu

@Pmh, they may say its the same, but a good amount of the plates & bricks I've gotten in a lot of recent sets feel slightly more rubbery/spongy... I have some suspicions TLG has been trialling some variations on ABS, possibly to improve their product &/or lower production cost.

ecmo47

Improve their product? No. Lower costs? Yes. Not run afoul with environmental nutjobs? Yes. 

Pmh

VorpalRyu said:

@Pmh, they may say its the same, but a good amount of the plates & bricks I've gotten in a lot of recent sets feel slightly more rubbery/spongy... I have some suspicions TLG has been trialling some variations on ABS, possibly to improve their product &/or lower production cost.

rubbery and spongy,that is exactly how I would describe it indeed.

Pmh

After having become aware of severe quality problems today (I don't inspect my lego every day)  I have become quiet pessimistic about the secondary lego market. For me personally the amount that I am prepared to spend on a set has dropped considerably because of the quality isues. Am severely disappointed by this,it comes completely unexpected. When I played with lego as a kid the quality was excellent and I had to work very hard to break a piece. Now the pieces break by themselves when just sitting on a shelf, and within 1 month after building. Who is ever going to pay top dollar for that?

Well, I guess I am back into my dark ages now:(

If lego did this on purpose (lower quality to reduce cost and increase profits) then I think they made a huge mistake for the long term.

piratemania7

^ you just came out of dark ages no?

prevere

^I could have 50% of my bricks cracked, and would still buy LEGO (if they replace them that is). Of course, I just haven't seen this problem on a large scale with my purchases.

Pitfall69

How many different kinds of pieces does Lego manufacture? How many of those pieces have quality issues? A small percentage by my count. I do think the quality of their products have slipped over the years, but it is still better than what the clone brands have to offer.

TheLoneTensor

Well, take a cheese slope (or a 1x1 tile).  It may be a 1/10,000 part, equating to a micro % value of overall "parts that fail," but they are in 90% of sets out there.  Said another way, 90% of the sets sold today have a high-failure-rate part in them (if not more).

VorpalRyu

Have to say, I haven't encountered the issue of cheese slopes cracking as yet. Since hearing about it, I've started inspecting all the sets that have them at least once a month. Has anyone noted any common factors? Like its more prevalent during long stints of hot or cold weather? Or of high or low humidity?

CCC

It's the ones that are looked at regularly that crack! So don't inspect them and they'll never crack. Or will they, if you don't check them you'll never know. Schrödinger's crack.

prevere

Why are we seeing the cheese slopes crack and not 1x1 tiles? Maybe that part has too much stress on it in some circumstances. Either bad part design or use in sets.

CCC

Probably a combination of thickness (or lack of) and different stress.

SumoLego

CCC said:
Schrödinger's crack.

prevere

CCC said:

It's the ones that are looked at regularly that crack! So don't inspect them and they'll never crack. Or will they, if you don't check them you'll never know. Schrödinger's crack.

Friends don't let friends look at cheese slopes.

VorpalRyu

@CCC, Damn that Schrödinger, he has a lot to answer for... If he didn't own a cat, the world wouldn't have these problems.

SumoLego

'Schrödinger's Empty Box of Anticipation and Presumption' doesn't evoke the same emotional response...

starwarfan77

Diggydoes said:

I know everybody's making the occasional "brickpicker-joke"from time to time,but is their community really that strong that they can clean out for example wal-marts stock of the #75920 in such a short time? Seems kinda scary to me!

yup it is scary. there has been instances when over 400 exclusives has been wiped out within 24 hours. so, it does look like there are big time "resellers" around.

juggles7

I agree there's lots of resellers, but I don't understand the claim about 400 exclusives being "wiped out" within 24 hours.  That doesn't make sense.

TheLoneTensor

This is why people should take information with a grain of salt.  There's way too much anecdotal evidence that shouldn't be trusted at face value.  Not to mention, sometimes folks pop up who purport to be experts in reselling, yet have proven themselves less useful than a dart board.

dragonhawk

pharmjod said:

Farmer_John said:

I wonder if it's possible TLG is simply letting Walmart be the exclusive distributor of #75920. If that's the case, then the price will come down soon enough...especially when everyone who ran out to purchase several copies begins returning them to the stores.

Not saying its not possible, but when has that ever happened before? Has it? I mean yes, TRU has kept things beyond when they are gone from LEGO's site but that is as much a function of the TRU tax as anything. 

Like #8092 ? I could buy that thing from Walmart 1.5 years after its retirement date :(

eggshen

The only store exclusive set that I have seen sell out then get restocked at either Target, TRU, or Walmart was the #60062 Arctic Icebreaker. It sat around for a while, then TRU had a 20% off City set sale and they flew. A couple of months later they had them back in-stock, which I thought was weird. You also have the #21109 Exo-Suit which sold out at [email protected] but came back after another (very large, apparently) production run. 
Every other exclusive that I have paid attention to has languished on store shelves forever until they eventually all sell at full retail (unlikely) or get aggressively marked down (#60049 Helicopter Transporter at Target and #70133 Spinlyn's Cavern at Walmart come to mind, and there are many TRU examples thanks to the TRU tax). 

doriansdad

juggles7 said:

I agree there's lots of resellers, but I don't understand the claim about 400 exclusives being "wiped out" within 24 hours.  That doesn't make sense.

I think he means 400 of one exclusive set being gobbled up, not 400 separate exclusive sets. 10/23/14. Things changed on many levels after that day!

novicebuilder101

400 of one set snatched up by resellers? That's the norm. It happens all the time.

SumoLego

TheLoneTensor said:

Not to mention, sometimes folks pop up who purport to be experts in reselling, yet have proven themselves less useful than a dart board.

Than an inflatable dartboard?

TheLoneTensor

I was going for throwing darts at ideas on a wall, or chickens dropping poop on ideas scattered on the floor, but that works just as well.  What's even more amazing is how often they tend to appear after merely mentioning them, like demons.

Thanos75

#75920 is even sold out at all the Wal-Marts by me....and I  had nothing to do with it. Which makes it even more odd.

samiam391

Thanos75 said:

#75920 is even sold out at all the Wal-Marts by me....and I  had nothing to do with it. Which makes it even more odd.

Were they marked down to $10 each? ;)

doriansdad

TheLoneTensor said:

I was going for throwing darts at ideas on a wall, or chickens dropping poop on ideas scattered on the floor, but that works just as well.  What's even more amazing is how often they tend to appear after merely mentioning them, like demons.

OK Tensor I will leave you and your board alone. Good luck and good trades buddy :)

goshe7

samiam391 said:

Were they marked down to $10 each? ;)

No, they were hit with something even more powerful than a 75% markdown from MSRP - the possibility of unexpected retirement and ensuing guarantee* of excellent reseller profit in a short time.

* all guarantees are representative only and based on anecdotal evidence of the Zombies.  Past performance is not a a guarantee of future returns.

Thanos75

I was able to secure several copies when my buddy found some stashed away behind the police stations at one Wal-Mart. 

Pitfall69

goshe7 said:

samiam391 said:

Were they marked down to $10 each? ;)

No, they were hit with something even more powerful than a 75% markdown from MSRP - the possibility of unexpected retirement and ensuing guarantee* of excellent reseller profit in a short time.

* all guarantees are representative only and based on anecdotal evidence of the Zombies.  Past performance is not a a guarantee of future returns.

Oh, I see we are back to adding disclaimers ;)

starwarfan77

TheLoneTensor said:

I was going for throwing darts at ideas on a wall, or chickens dropping poop on ideas scattered on the floor, but that works just as well.  What's even more amazing is how often they tend to appear after merely mentioning them, like demons.

how are your #76011 doing? has dust settled on those $15.74 bought about what at least 12 months ago?

probably now is the time to start on that. :smile: of course i am no expert like you who can claim it to be a repeat of what set was that.... i forgot... any way

if anyone who don't have a copy its time to get one. 

Pitfall69

The sarcasm is thick tonight.

iluvmyelement

Still TONS of #75920 at the two Walmarts I stopped at today.  Only picked up two as I usually stick to the AFOL type sets.  Must not be many resellers in my area (AZ)

TheLoneTensor

You're right, that's why I don't claim to be an expert on anything.  The only advice that I push around here is to not take anyone's advice at face value, let alone my ramblings.  Do your research and minimize your own risk for your own situation.