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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LordofLegoLordofLego Member Posts: 310
    mathew said:
    White 1x1 crack like crazy.  So do most cheese slopes.  I have seen it with other sized bricks as well.  The plastic just isn't as durable as it was years ago.  Now surprisingly my USC Imperial Shuttle never showed any signs of cracking.  But the Space Shuttle Expedition that I had was a mess.  Almost every slope in that set cracked on me.  I sold it right after Lego sent me replacements.
    Every curved piece in the cargo bay doors, right? I didn't know you could send for new pieces at the time, so I didn't get new ones. It doesn't look that bad if you don't look too close.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Could be interesting to be sure. Sounds like I need to pick up a few just in case. 
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited July 2015
    I orderd a number of Blue Coat Bilbo Blurays from Big W when they were on sale for $7aud each. Unfortunately they couldn't be fulfilled and they sent me the non-minifig copies  :s

    JW sets have been pretty popular here, but as they are relatively expensive for what you get, they haven't sold as well as they could have.

  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    juggles7 said:
    That must be a very popular set. No, it's not typical. It will almost certainly come back in stock, despite the "sold out" label. It's probably just temporarily out of stock. 
    Agreed.  I would assume production schedules are set for months in advance.   But it would be surprising if there wasn't already a second run of JW (including this one) at least tentatively planned to replenish inventory before Christmas.  
    FollowsClosely
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Could be opportunity for profit if they don't restock before Christmas.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    edited July 2015
    goshe7 said:
    juggles7 said:
    That must be a very popular set. No, it's not typical. It will almost certainly come back in stock, despite the "sold out" label. It's probably just temporarily out of stock. 
    Agreed.  I would assume production schedules are set for months in advance.   But it would be surprising if there wasn't already a second run of JW (including this one) at least tentatively planned to replenish inventory before Christmas.  
    I dunno, in the US there was an Arctic set that was only out for a brief time then gone for good. Two actually, the #850932 polar accessory set with the tent, and the #60064 supply plane I believe. The mine sub-theme also had the #4202 dump truck go fairly fast as well. All went fairly quickly after their release.
    So anything is possible sadly. It would be annoying to see a set like that go so quickly though if the case

  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    And don't forget the Zombies.   Store exclusives can be unpredictable.   
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,458
    edited July 2015
    samiam391 said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    The B-Wing
    Actually, if you were able to get it during the May 4th sale (which everyone was) for 50% off you can more than double your money today, even after fees. Considering how many were sold at 50% off, I'm rather surprised it has gone up as much as it has past its original $200 retail price.

    I bought mine for $100, opened it, built it, displayed it... and then sold it for $210 two years later after I tried failed to thin out my collection. That's a win in my opinion.
    Assuming shipping was a wash and you didn't pay sales tax, a $210 selling price means you had only 5% overall taxes and fees.

    Just saying, it's not quite at a "more than double your money" point yet.
    @TheLoneTensor - Original shipping was paid for by LEGO.

    For my $210 example (Used), shipping and handling was paid for by the buyer. 

    Even after taxes and fees, for a new copy, you should be slightly doubling your money. So yes, it is at that point... but again, only by a small amount. If you need that extra small bit of clarification with the asterisks next time for "slightly", I'll add it. ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    edited July 2015
    DadsAFOL said:
    And don't forget the Zombies.   Store exclusives can be unpredictable.   
    Yeah, I almost included it, but as it was not part of a city sub theme I left it off. That and #3222 as #3222 was 'basic' city for lack of a better term. But in Hindsight, as this is about a JW set I should have probably included those.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2015
    samiam391 said:
    Assuming shipping was a wash and you didn't pay sales tax, a $210 selling price means you had only 5% overall taxes and fees.

    Just saying, it's not quite at a "more than double your money" point yet.
    @TheLoneTensor - Original shipping was paid for by LEGO.

    For my $210 example (Used), shipping and handling was paid for by the buyer. 

    Even after taxes and fees, for a new copy, you should be slightly doubling your money. So yes, it is at that point... but again, only by a small amount. If you need that extra small bit of clarification with the asterisks next time for "slightly", I'll add it. ;)
    If one chooses to not pay income tax on the profit, then yes, one can possibly double their money right now.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    Don't most people define their salary before income tax?
    pharmjoddougts
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 593
    I got worried about #75920 so I ran over to Walmart at lunch to grab one. I was going to wait until they went on clearance but I'm pretty sure they aren't going to make it that long in stores. Store exclusives are very tricky. The only reason I didn't miss out on the Zombies and Arctic Supply Plane sets is that I am a completist and bought those sets right when they came out for some reason. But I was able to wait until Spinlyn's Cavern dropped to $16 before I pulled the trigger on that one.

    The Walmart near me must have gotten a new shipment of JW sets because everything is in stock. The exception to that was #75920, they only had two of them on the shelf (down to 1 now). The last time I was in there (a few days ago) almost everything was sold out other than Raptor Escape and the Indominus Rex set.

    #75920 could be worth some big bucks closer to the holidays provided LEGO doesn't do another run.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,458
    edited July 2015
    samiam391 said:
    Assuming shipping was a wash and you didn't pay sales tax, a $210 selling price means you had only 5% overall taxes and fees.

    Just saying, it's not quite at a "more than double your money" point yet.
    @TheLoneTensor - Original shipping was paid for by LEGO.

    For my $210 example (Used), shipping and handling was paid for by the buyer. 

    Even after taxes and fees, for a new copy, you should be slightly doubling your money. So yes, it is at that point... but again, only by a small amount. If you need that extra small bit of clarification with the asterisks next time for "slightly", I'll add it. ;)
    If one chooses to not pay income tax on the profit, then yes, one can possibly double their money right now.
    CCC said:
    Don't most people define their salary before income tax?

    @TheLoneTensor-   Not to mention that there are so many different ways you could have stated that without using the implied tone that you did.

    Moving on.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2015
    You're picking up tone that I'm not putting down.  I'm simply stating that at the end of the day, you're likely not doubling your money.  If you'd like to debate it further, fine, but don't state something that just isn't true.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited July 2015
    Walmart Online is also Out of Stock on the #75920. I'm sure brickpicker has something to do with that, but I do wonder what the true interest is in this set. I don't think it has quite the appeal as the Zombies set personally. It will have to hit $99 to about double your money after fees and all. Is that possible? Yes, just don't know how likely. I guess if it were to disappear today and no further runs be made then I can see this set doing pretty well. I would be surprised though if it is truly gone. What would that be, less than 2 months on the market? That would have to be a new record right?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2015
    It's the only way to complete the raptor team, plus it has an exclusive fig.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,458
    edited July 2015
    You're picking up tone that I'm not putting down.  I'm simply stating that at the end of the day, you're likely not doubling your money.  If you'd like to debate it further, fine, but don't state something that just isn't true.
    It's a tone I perceived quite strongly. I think there are many other different ways you could have worded it better to not come off the way you did. If that isn't the way you intended it though, then that's fine and I'll believe you.

    I still think the opposite on the B-Wing, but I'm fine to leave it as it is... I don't see an outcome where we will agree with one another. I'm not really one to debate past a few comments when it's clear the two sides have dug in their heels. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    pharmjod said:
    Walmart Online is also Out of Stock on the #75920. I'm sure brickpicker has something to do with that, but I do wonder what the true interest is in this set. I don't think it has quite the appeal as the Zombies set personally. It will have to hit $99 to about double your money after fees and all. Is that possible? Yes, just don't know how likely. I guess if it were to disappear today and no further runs be made then I can see this set doing pretty well. I would be surprised though if it is truly gone. What would that be, less than 2 months on the market? That would have to be a new record right?
    Pretty sure the Arctic supply plane was only out for about the same time. A bit maddening IMO if this set is really gone for good
    TheLoneTensor
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    mathew said:
    White 1x1 crack like crazy.  So do most cheese slopes.  I have seen it with other sized bricks as well.  The plastic just isn't as durable as it was years ago.  Now surprisingly my USC Imperial Shuttle never showed any signs of cracking.  But the Space Shuttle Expedition that I had was a mess.  Almost every slope in that set cracked on me.  I sold it right after Lego sent me replacements.
    Every curved piece in the cargo bay doors, right? I didn't know you could send for new pieces at the time, so I didn't get new ones. It doesn't look that bad if you don't look too close.

    Yep.  I think the replacement pieces cracked as well.  I didn't even bother using the second batch of pieces.  Just sold the set.  Honestly I didn't care for it.  Build was boring and the cargo bay doors didn't close completely.  Too many gaps.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    samiam391 said:

    It's a tone I perceived quite strongly. I think there are many other different ways you could have worded it better to not come off the way you did. If that isn't the way you intended it though, then that's fine and I'll believe you.
    Perhaps it was my usage of "if one chooses," because honestly, I did not want to say "if you chose..." because then I'd be implying that you would choose to not report taxable income, and I absolutely did not want to imply that.

    Fair enough, moving on :)
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,456
    pharmjod said:
    Walmart Online is also Out of Stock on the #75920. I'm sure brickpicker has something to do with that, but I do wonder what the true interest is in this set. I don't think it has quite the appeal as the Zombies set personally. It will have to hit $99 to about double your money after fees and all. Is that possible? Yes, just don't know how likely. I guess if it were to disappear today and no further runs be made then I can see this set doing pretty well. I would be surprised though if it is truly gone. What would that be, less than 2 months on the market? That would have to be a new record right?
    Pretty sure the Arctic supply plane was only out for about the same time. A bit maddening IMO if this set is really gone for good
    I wonder ifit makes any difference that while the other examples given were also retailer exclusives in the UK, Raptor escape isn't.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,458
    samiam391 said:

    It's a tone I perceived quite strongly. I think there are many other different ways you could have worded it better to not come off the way you did. If that isn't the way you intended it though, then that's fine and I'll believe you.
    Perhaps it was my usage of "if one chooses," because honestly, I did not want to say "if you chose..." because then I'd be implying that you would choose to not report taxable income, and I absolutely did not want to imply that.

    Fair enough, moving on :)
    It's no problem. Like I said, the internet... we're bound to misunderstand each other every once in awhile!

    I'll admit, part of me wants to list my sealed B-Wing right now and see what happens ;)
    SumoLego
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    edited July 2015
    My buy in on the UCS B-Wing was $105.99 USD. That is with 6% sales tax and Free Shipping from Lego [email protected] If I sold it for $250+Free Shipping and took Ebay fees and Shipping out of that, it gives me only a $90 profit. So, I havent doubled my money. This is based on the last 3 Sold Listings on Ebay. The cheapest listing on Ebay right now is $285+Free Shipping. If I sold it for that price, I would double my money.
    SumoLego
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    It looks like the raptors "escape"d. Too soon?
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 593
    Earlier today there were ten Walmarts within 50 miles of me that had  #75920 instock (well, available for pickup today). Right now there are only four, two of which are in small towns 40 miles away from the city where I live. I'm thinking that since Walmart will hold items for a week that maybe one person is buying them up and plans a weekend trip to pick them up.

    The other thing I noticed is that with other items you have the option to add an item to your cart at a store but you may have to wait to pick it up because they are out of stock. They calculate the expected pick up date for the item based on shipping time, etc. There is no option to pick up at a later date, implying (to me anyway) that this was a 'one and done' set.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I saw the raptor set built at the Downtown Disney Lego store.  Not a bad little set.  It's pricey at $40 for the size though.  A non-Lego version would be half the cost.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    Non-Lego?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    SumoLego said:
    Non-Lego?

    Like a regular, non-construction toy.  Take away the raptors and there's really not much to it.  A gate and some technic pieces.  I think it's important to compare the overall value of Lego to other toys. 
    madforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    Ah, I see what you mean.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    ^^So what you're saying is that without dinosaurs, the Jurassic World sets are a bust?  ;)
    FollowsCloselyTXLegoguySumoLegoprevereSethro3
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2015
    Kinda the same with the movie too.
    SumoLegoSethro3
  • LordofLegoLordofLego Member Posts: 310
    Kinda the same with the whole franchise.
    SumoLego
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    The only reason I went to see Jurassic World was the dinos. Was not impressed with the movie in general, but the dino effects were great (as was Chris Pratt even though he was handed a terrible script). 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    You're assuming there was a script.  I do not make that assumption 
    pharmjodVorpalRyuCapnRex101
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    I realize that a requirement to attending movies is the suspension of disbelief for awhile. But I've always wondered why dinosaurs don't ever get full. It's like their entire mindset is to run around eating things, but they never have time to digest...

    Just thinking out loud here... :)
    VorpalRyuLobot
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I could say the same thing about my 1-year-old.
    VorpalRyuFarmer_JohnSumoLegokhmellymelGothamConstructionCo
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    @prevere, know the feeling, our one year old has days like that too... :)
    xiahna
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 1,026
      Farmer_John said:
    I realize that a requirement to attending movies is the suspension of disbelief for awhile. But I've always wondered why dinosaurs don't ever get full. It's like their entire mindset is to run around eating things, but they never have time to digest...

    Just thinking out loud here... :)

    Perhaps they were all really worried about the end of the world, and it was comfort eating.  Or, they knew that they were all headed for extinction, and couldn't be bothered to diet anymore.

    In all seriousness, and for the herbivores at least, they were massive and would have needed to continually eat to survive...just think about what a decent cow eats and scale that up to something a lot bigger!

    Farmer_John
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    Not a single Walmart near me had any #75920 to be found.  Perhaps this is like the arctic plane.
  • CapnRex101CapnRex101 United KingdomAdministrator Posts: 2,357
    @Farmer_John - Lots of animals never feel 'full' as a result of living in the wild where they have evolved to constantly eat when food is plentiful.
    SumoLego
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    Like humans around wild places like McD's.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Not a single Walmart near me had any #75920 to be found.  Perhaps this is like the arctic plane.

    This is a weird one.  When it first went Sold Out on [email protected], pretty much every WalMart near me (around 20?) had the set in stock.  Now about half of them appear to have it in stock, but both orders I've placed have been cancelled.  
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    @Farmer_John - Lots of animals never feel 'full' as a result of living in the wild where they have evolved to constantly eat when food is plentiful.
    I guess my wife and I kind of live out a version of Jurassic World in our home where our teenagers are the ravenous monsters running amok, the food in our cupboards is the victims, and the vacuum cleaner is Chris Pratt (always trying to clean up the mess).
    LegoboyReesesPieces
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I think with #75920 there are a large number of resellers trying to buy for pickup to hedge their bets. Wal-Mart holds the pick up for a week and you have 90 days to return the set of it turns out to be restocked. Pretty much a no risk proposition. That is likely messing with Wal-Mart's inventory in the short time.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    goshe7 said:
    Not a single Walmart near me had any #75920 to be found.  Perhaps this is like the arctic plane.

    This is a weird one.  When it first went Sold Out on [email protected], pretty much every WalMart near me (around 20?) had the set in stock.  Now about half of them appear to have it in stock, but both orders I've placed have been cancelled.  
    Brickpicker got wind of the sold out status on Lego SAH and poof, instant OOS at most walmarts now. This happened in the span of a few hours. The horde comes down swift and strong.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    I know everybody's making the occasional "brickpicker-joke"from time to time,but is their community really that strong that they can clean out for example wal-marts stock of the #75920 in such a short time? Seems kinda scary to me!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2015
    I'm not a brick picker fan (citing content and community interaction) but a reseller is a reseller, whether a member of Brickset or elsewhere. Let's just freshen up the comedic interpretations. When someone say "horde", I still first think of Horadak and the Evil Horde from She-ra.
    TheLoneTensorkooz
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2015
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