Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Farmer_John

mathew said:

Lego Store at Opry Mills in Nashville:  I was pleasantly surprised.  Large store.  Not too crowded.  Lots of sets on display.  I finally saw the Death Star built and I now want one.  They had three Red-Fives in stock (possibly more in the back).  Also plenty of Cinema Palaces.  No Tower Bridge or Pet Shop.  Pick-a-brick wall was ok, but nothing rare.  Store staff was ok.  Not as friendly as Downtown Disney but not bad.

We go to the Opry Mills Lego Store several times each year and have been very happy with it. They have an excellent manager (Donnell) and the employees are generally great too. I have to admit that I am hopeful that certain employees (or Donnell) are there when I go so I can do more than just shop; I can shoot the breeze too.

When I hit the POB wall, I am not shy about asking if they have certain pieces in the back. If they do, they have always gone and brought them out for me.

Other stores I've been to make me feel a bit claustrophobic, but I really like the openness of the floor plan in the Opry Mills store.

And having a lot of good memories of going with my son to the pre-BF VIP event don't hurt either...

SumoLego

@juggles7 - My perspective is based on my understanding of Lego's strategic planning and how they approach set production, sales projections, etc.

Yes, there are plenty of folks that purchase sets for the purpose of resale (parts and sets).

My foremost point is that Lego doesn't produce sets that cater to those buyers.  They are part of the market, but are a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.  Lego focuses on leading indicators.

Lego had problems selling the Town Hall so they cut bait at a time believed appropriate.  If they had any consideration of the lucrative prices in the aftermarket, they would have nursed the set along.  Problem is there is no profit in that model for Lego.

(I appreciate the dialogue!)

Farmer_John

^I think TLG still would have cut the Town Hall even knowing it's aftermarket price would increase. If they had kept it going, nobody would have purchased it assuming it still had time before EOLing. Keeping it going would have just extended the shelf life of a product that wasn't selling. And had they announced it was retiring within a month or two, the result would have been resellers backing up the truck to grab as many as they could...thus infuriating other collectors who also were waiting to purchase this set until after the Grand Emporium was gone. It's the proverbial catch-22 all around for TLG.

Finally, who's to say that TLG didn't nurse it along for 6 months longer than the original plan to EOL it? ;)

SumoLego

^  Agreed, thus their focus on the retail market.  I'm belaboring my point.

I'll gladly eat my tie if there is a 'retro' line reproducing classic Lego sets that happen to coincide with the highest appreciating sets...

Cough... cough... CAROUSEL... cough... cough...

FatMatt

I do strongly believe that a not-so-distant-future stagnation of profit margins is inevitable given the current trending practices of resellers. I'm not speaking of a bubble or a burst, I don't see that, but rather the horde driving the prices down due to a growing surplus of after-market availability. Thus making the pickings very slim. I think the writing is on the wall, and there may still be a few years to ride the train, but it will happen I believe........I'm curious what thoughts are in regards to older sets being held for investment if a situation such as this arises. Will an overall lowering of recently retired set prices cause a price decline for sets that have been retired for a couple years or more? In other words, will a change of strategy that results in holding currently held sets for a longer period of time be more profitable, given there would be less future opportunities for buying money makers? I really can see an argument for both sides, but was curious as to others thoughts. 

CCC

^ It totally depends on what the buyers want. If buyers want a certain set that is "rare" (here meaning demand greater than supply) then it will retain a high price. If people have to dump sets, then prices will fall. Although in that case, you might find more sets are parted out instead of sold as sets.

Sets within themes may be interlinked but I cannot, for example, see the price of an Emerald Night dropping because Chima sets are not selling well on the secondary market.

FatMatt

Yes, but I'm not talking about Chima. I foresee a stagnation of even exclusive sets, possibly within a few years, minimal increases in the aftermarket where only volume resellers will find it profitable. I'm not speaking absolutes across the boards, as there will likely always be the occasional Town Hall. As that transpires and progresses, there will be numerous retired exclusives available on the aftermarket for a fraction of the cost of older exclusives. There will always be a demand for the Emerald Night, but will that demand remain enough to keep them selling at $450 or higher, or are we going to see a gradual overall decline in some of the older exclusives. I understand the concept of supply and demand, but is it possible that some of that demand is going to decrease due to an overwhelming availability of considerably cheaper exclusives? I suppose the outcome is contingent on how much that demand shifts.

CCC

It may be when there are 20 modulars that people don't care so much for the first ten as they can get the second ten cheaper. Although some people will want them all. However, I don't see them decreasing in price. If some wants a fire station they can purchase it or moc. Every time one gets bought, it's out of play. It may mean slower increases in price, but I still expect rises.

TheLoneTensor

I don't know if there will always be demand for the Emerald Night (blasphemy, I know).  The fact is, it's a fragile engine that doesn't run very well.  It's got a great look, and relatively rare pieces, but is that enough for it to remain perpetually desirable, especially if Lego releases a substantial expert steam engine in the future?

Farmer_John

^Agreed...blasphemy! :smile: 

CCC

^^ that's the important point. If they release a similar steam train, then sales will go to that while it is cheaper. EN would probably be in demand as new people brought in by the new train may want both. Same for Fire Brigade. It's safe while there is nothing similar. If they do another fire station in five years, it will probably be hit more than the EN would be if a new steam train was done.

TheLoneTensor

It is true that the wonky function of the set could have little bearing on someone wanting the EN in the future.  Future-Lego-train-enthusiast will be totally into Lego trains, and see the awesome early model EN steamer and must have it, not knowing that it's really better as a showpiece than in operation.

I kinda think the same of the Grand Carousel too, but its value shows no signs of diminishing anytime soon.

Farmer_John

^I certainly agree the EN left a lot to be desired regarding the funky gearing that ultimately drives the wheels. The first time I built it, I wondered if I would have to actually oil it due to all the points of friction. But it is a classic Lego train set...no doubt.

BrickDancer

More and new trains do not make me lust after the Sante Fe any less.

On another note, the Winter Soldier poly didn't make it to end of month after all. No longer adding in cart.

Pitfall69

Ahhhhh. The Santa Fe Super Chief, my favorite :)

Farmer_John

BrickDancer said:

More and new trains do not make me lust after the Sante Fe any less.

On another note, the Winter Soldier poly didn't make it to end of month after all. No longer adding in cart.

Ha! Yeah...I was going to try and pick up one more WS, but alas, they were out today. Now begins the slow, but sure, ascent.

juggles7

Just a quick aside, but I disagree with whoever recently wrote that Lego was successful because they offer an "exceptional value". As sets go from 10 to 15 cents per piece, seems to me we're getting less and less for more and more. In my opinion, some sets compare pretty well with other toy/game entertainment activities, but for the most part, this is a high-end product, representing a poor value. Those with a fanatical interest in the products, and deep pockets, may see value, but in more objective terms, these are luxury items that don't come cheaply. Just keepin' it real! 

juggles7

I notice that #70809 Lord Business' Evil Lair is "call to check" at Shop at Home-USA. I'll predict it's the end of the line for it.  In my area, Target and WalMart stores clearanced those at 30% off quite some time ago. I would think panicking to buy a few at full retail would be a bad call right here. $70 set is still at Amazon for 62. I say have just a nibble, or better yet, stand aside. 

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

Ahhhhh. The Santa Fe Super Chief, my favorite :)

You know...I really need to get back on BrickLinking the Santa Fe Super Chief. I have several of the parts, but still a ways to go.

The process we use to BL sets is that I tell my son which set I want to BL, he produces an Excel spreadsheet with a color coded parts list, I use the spreadsheet to order the parts as various BL orders are made, and all the parts are finally passed back to my son to assemble. I really enjoy watching my kids build the sets and they have a blast too. That and the fact that my son is actually much better and faster at building sets than I am. If only there were college degrees in building Lego sets, he could get a full ride. :smile: 

pharmjod

I think Lord Business lair will do fairly well once it is gone. It is a fun set, the only with Lord Business so there is that. Will be curious to see how long it lasts once it disappears from SAH.

SumoLego

Exceptional value is in the context of the reuse-ability, the quality and precision of the product - not the acquisition price.

One can pull out a box of Lego from 2003 and they'll work just as well as a new box from 2015.

It's not a faddish disposable toy. It is a premium brand that many justify the cost to purchase.

madforLEGO

juggles7 said:

Just a quick aside, but I disagree with whoever recently wrote that Lego was successful because they offer an "exceptional value". As sets go from 10 to 15 cents per piece, seems to me we're getting less and less for more and more. In my opinion, some sets compare pretty well with other toy/game entertainment activities, but for the most part, this is a high-end product, representing a poor value. Those with a fanatical interest in the products, and deep pockets, may see value, but in more objective terms, these are luxury items that don't come cheaply. Just keepin' it real! 

That and I think that part cost per piece is also now becoming a bit misleading as many parts are now tiny parts, especially in exclusives. IMO this negates looking at many sets in terms of cost per piece in terms of value anyway. I think a good example is the #10235 WVM. Or even the latest Creator 'city' sets.

SumoLego said:

Exceptional value is in the context of the reuse-ability, the quality and precision of the product - not the acquisition price.

One can pull out a box of Lego from 2003 and they'll work just as well as a new box from 2015.

It's not a faddish disposable toy. It is a premium brand that many justify the cost to purchase.

'Exceptional value' to me means value in all aspects, also meaning the cost. By your reasoning, every LEGO set would be an exceptional value, but this is not the case. For example I would consider value in the new #60097 by terms of playability of the set, but would not consider it a good overall value due to the exorbitant price tag (189.99 USD) so it is not exception, even though you can do many things with the parts in it.

SumoLego

I agree we are using different definitions.  

I'm talking about Lego as a brand to the general public who aren't parting sets out or investing in the secondary market.

The Lego at my house is continuously being played with.  I've got a basement full of fad toys that are interesting for a week then are ignored.

(Frozen Barbie Castle, Cars Drifters, Monster 500, Zhu-Zhu pets...)

TheLoneTensor

If there wasn't so much cracking rampant these days, I'd 100% agree with the exceptional value.  Alas, I have put to rest far too many slopes than I care to admit.

SumoLego

I noticed that as well.  The cheese wedges are not durable.  I haven't had anything else of lower quality.

thenos

TheLoneTensor said:

If there wasn't so much cracking rampant these days, I'd 100% agree with the exceptional value.  Alas, I have put to rest far too many slopes than I care to admit.

For me it was the brick sized corner pieces.  I was stacking some together and said hey...  Those are cracks. Anyway,  not the quality thread,  but it does make me wonder how well modern LEGO will hold up.  

mathew

White 1x1 crack like crazy.  So do most cheese slopes.  I have seen it with other sized bricks as well.  The plastic just isn't as durable as it was years ago.  Now surprisingly my USC Imperial Shuttle never showed any signs of cracking.  But the Space Shuttle Expedition that I had was a mess.  Almost every slope in that set cracked on me.  I sold it right after Lego sent me replacements.

juggles7

A little bird has just told me that #75050, Star Wars B-Wing is sold out at Shop at Home -UK. Interesting! It's been out about 11 months. I've seen sold out stuff come back in stock there, but it's uncommon. It could stay available in the States a whole lot longer, of course, but who knows? Will we start seeing SW sets from the new movie as early as, say, October? November?  Anyone know?  We might see some early retirements in that theme due to the upcoming movie, you think?

Sethro3

I have a fair number of arches that are cracked also. 

I could see them releasing sw earlier due to the movie, but then again we all know how they are about spoilers.

Pitfall69

^We will see some photos early and I'm sure some retailers will jump the gun and start selling some Star Wars sets before the official release date; which is September 4th.

Pitfall69

The B-Wing has proven time and time again that it isn't a popular Star Wars ship, despite what people say. There was a huge discussion about the UCS B-Wing and I said before it was officially released, that it wouldn't sell very well and guess what, it didn't. The current system scale B-Wing has been on sale for a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes for good soon.

samiam391

Pitfall69 said:

The B-Wing has proven time and time again that it isn't a popular Star Wars ship, despite what people say. There was a huge discussion about the UCS B-Wing and I said before it was officially released, that it wouldn't sell very well and guess what, it didn't. The current system scale B-Wing has been on sale for a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes for good soon.

Actually, if you were able to get it during the May 4th sale (which everyone was) for 50% off you can more than double your money today, even after fees. Considering how many were sold at 50% off, I'm rather surprised it has gone up as much as it has past its original $200 retail price.

I bought mine for $100, opened it, built it, displayed it... and then sold it for $210 two years later after I tried failed to thin out my collection. That's a win in my opinion.

Farmer_John

^Yeah...my son purchased a 50% off UCS B-Wing and I picked up a copy too. He built his and I left mine sealed. Anyway, the set is so touchy that I worry it will fall over from the draft when a ceiling fan is turned on. I'm sure I'll sell my copy at some point without opening it. To @pitfall69's point, it's just not one of my favorite sets and I'm not too worried about #75050 going away.

Pitfall69

^The 50% off sale solidifies my point ;)

Farmer_John

^I understand the 50% off sale, but what I don't understand is releasing #75070 shortly after the UCS B-Wing EOL'd. I never understood that one.

samiam391

Pitfall69 said:

^The 50% off sale solidifies my point ;)

I agree with you about the new B-Wing, but not the old, UCS B-Wing.

I agreed with half of what you said, that's pretty good for us.

Pitfall69

^Half? Hmmm...I'll take it!!! 

I didn't say the UCS wasn't a good investment at 50% off, because I do. I was just saying that at $200, it wasn't/isn't a popular enough ship. It really only "flew off the shelves" only when it was on sale at 50% off. 

SumoLego

I don't think there are too many sets that underperformed when purchased at 50% below retail.

The UCS B-Wing is a great example of a mushy-middle investment.  I think the Town Hall would have followed similar pattern if left on the market for another six months.  

The Mixer may be a candidate for the same pattern of appreciation as the UCS B-Wing.

Diggydoes

another topic, anybody invested in "blue coat Bilbo"? Cannot believe what the cheapest one on BL is going for, this is nuts!!!! http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?itemID=117496

goshe7

^I presume these are long gone from stores, right?  

I have a small stash of iron patriots I was able to procure once the game dropped to $20, obtained by scouring the less trafficked walmarts.  I wonder if their is a chance to get lucky with Bilbo.

Pitfall69

^He was from the first Hobbit movie. Long gone is an understatement :)

CCC

If he reaches £100, I'll consider selling mine. It's the old debate of whether to be minifig complete in LOTR+Hobbit vs the cold hard money.

Renny

Diggydoes said:on

another topic, anybody invested in "blue coat Bilbo"? Cannot believe what the cheapest one on BL is going for, this is nuts!!!! http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?itemID=117496

I did initially.   I bought around 20 of them from eBay for around $10 each and then sold them for around $40.  Nice little short term investment. 

SumoLego

I kept mine 'hidden' with my kids' random minifigures for a year.

More seem to be popping up on eBay...

samiam391

Renny said:

Diggydoes said:on

another topic, anybody invested in "blue coat Bilbo"? Cannot believe what the cheapest one on BL is going for, this is nuts!!!! http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?itemID=117496

I did initially.   I bought around 20 of them from eBay for around $10 each and then sold them for around $40.  Nice little short term investment. 

I had a small stock purchased at $20 or lower that I sold at about the same time as @Renny . 

The Bricklink prices are an anomaly, as they are much cheaper on eBay (albeit still expensive). 

prevere

That's the irony with BL. Sometimes ultra rare items can just be crazy expensive. But hey, sometimes supply can dictate price.

TheLoneTensor

samiam391 said:

Pitfall69 said:

The B-Wing

Actually, if you were able to get it during the May 4th sale (which everyone was) for 50% off you can more than double your money today, even after fees. Considering how many were sold at 50% off, I'm rather surprised it has gone up as much as it has past its original $200 retail price.

I bought mine for $100, opened it, built it, displayed it... and then sold it for $210 two years later after I tried failed to thin out my collection. That's a win in my opinion.

Assuming shipping was a wash and you didn't pay sales tax, a $210 selling price means you had only 5% overall taxes and fees.

Just saying, it's not quite at a "more than double your money" point yet.

thedingman5

So, #75920 is "Sold Out" on [email protected] US already.  Not out of stock, but straight up sold out.  Is that typical for a new release to go that fast?

juggles7

That must be a very popular set. No, it's not typical. It will almost certainly come back in stock, despite the "sold out" label. It's probably just temporarily out of stock. 

TheLoneTensor

I dunno, that is the exclusive one (only at Walmart & [email protected]).  Given that nobody expected JW to be as insanely popular as it is, I wouldn't be surprised if it actually turned out to be gone gone.