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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    Looks like 10240 might be gone??
    ecmo47
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    edited June 2015
    J
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Looks like the Ghostbuster set is gone from the [email protected] (US) website. Gone as in nothing comes up in the search. Curious to see if it's just temporarily sold out or if it's actually done.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Where have you been? This was discussed earlier ;)
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Doh! Sorry about that.  I need to get in the habit of keeping up with this thread before posting. With me cutting back on selling I am less inclined to keep up :)
    Pitfall69
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    What happened to the stock tracker link?  Was just looking at a couple of current sets, and I don't see the little chart icon.  Am I just overlooking it?  
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    @ronyar...make sure you were logged in...and i think, too, you might need to show an european flag as your region.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    vitreolum said:
    Horizon did well for me, got them at a good discount a month post retiremnt and sold them all 1-2 months later easily for double. Definitely not a good long term investment but it was a damn good quick flip for me.
    And why would the Horizon Express "definitely not" be a good long term investment? I wouldn't expect another orange train to be produced in a good long while...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Right now, I am on the fence about The Horizon Express and because of that, I did not invest in the set. To have a proper train, you would need to buy 2 sets; that gets expensive. Once you add Power Functions, you are into the train $300+ I think it will do ok, but I put my money into other sets.
    joel4motion
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    CCC said:
    Still waiting for construct-a-zurg to become rare and a good investment.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    CCC said:
    Still waiting for construct-a-zurg to become rare and a good investment.
    Construct-a-Zurg does sell like a rare item when you buy-in for $7 each and pair him with Buzz Lightyear.  I think this combo was going for $55-$60 last holiday season.
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    @ryjay thanks!  Didn't realize I had been logged out.  Saw the charts just fine once I fixed that problem.  
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    Just a note, but I checked the US [email protected] this morning and the Ecto-1 is listed again.

    I do think it's almost at the end of its life cycle though, and am hoping to be able to get one this weekend.
    juggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Anyone think ucs xwing will perform as well R2?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,071
    ^ Not me. I expect good things from my stack. If it goes soon $350 by Christmas is expected.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285

    Pitfall69 said:
    Right now, I am on the fence about The Horizon Express and because of that, I did not invest in the set. To have a proper train, you would need to buy 2 sets; that gets expensive. Once you add Power Functions, you are into the train $300+ I think it will do ok, but I put my money into other sets.
    Well many people will want one as it is a train for their collection. So I will imagine it will climb, though I'm not sure how much and more importantly how fast. Maersk seems to be leveling out a bit in terms of price jumps, same with Emerald Night. Then again now is a bad time to guage LEGO sets prices as it is getting to the summer Im sure it varies for some but I find that prices tend to level off until the fall when people start thinking about Christmas.
    Also curious is the perpetual status of 'Temporarily out of stock' for the Santa's Workshop and Simpson's House for that matter.. Wondering if they are planning for one big last release in time for the holidays.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^On both the max price and the pace of price increase, R2 will be the winner. I'll take R2 over Red Five all day any day.
    LegoboypharmjodbrickupdateFollowsCloselydougtsAdeelZubair
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I'd like to call Santa's Workshop, SW, but Darth Vader beat Santa Claus to it.

    I think it'll be back this fall briefly. The summer "out of stock" hiatus only adds to the cravings of collectors and resellers, waiting to pounce in the fall. Not sure why LEGO does that, haven't they ever heard of "Christmas in July"?
    juggles7
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 843
    Poor R2..I missed out on him. Now I won't be able to buy him. Damn you resellers!!! (just kidding, I know what thread this is)

    But I really did miss out on him, so I made sure to pick up Red Five anyway, to be safe. Not that I will sell it later. But I do have a B-Wing if there are any takers :p
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Resellers didn't stop you buying one but now give you the chance to pick up a set when Lego no longer makes it. Up to you whether or not you want to buy r2 at the current price? He won't be getting any cheaper either way
    madforLEGOpharmjodTheLoneTensorGoldchains
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    And thanks to the resellers, you have the opportunity to still buy one.
  • B0SSKB0SSK In the PubMember Posts: 175
    Whats the prediction on the future value for the UCS SLave 1 please?  I have both the sandcrawler, UCS slave 1, jabbas palace, recent X wing still mint in unopened box !
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Careful using the word "mint". I would say that the only boxes close to mint are boxes that haven't had the Lego put into them and sealed.
    SumoLego
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    Why does everyone always assume that if resellers didn't buy all that stock that they wouldn't be available now somewhere? Like a toys r us at their inflated process for example. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,519
    I've got a DSII that hasn't been out of the shipping box.  Who knows if it is mint or has damage?  But I'm not taking it out to check!
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    ^ Because tru will never keep a set in stock for 5+ years after retirement. Or any other large store for that matter.

    B0SSK The prediction is a long wait until retirement. :)
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,835
    edited June 2015
    Why does everyone always assume that if resellers didn't buy all that stock that they wouldn't be available now somewhere? Like a toys r us at their inflated process for example. 
    I miss the days I might walk into a store to stumble across a set I thought I'd missed and able to pick it up at 70% off.  But then I suppose I do now have the guaranteed opportunity of buying a missed set at 2x rrp.  Not all bad.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    A red-headed step child of a theme, seemed to be not worth the increased MSRP it was, it's orange, ignored by many that otherwise collected the theme, stopped production without warning, actually a really nice set with great features, potential for great long-term returns.

    I'm not talking about the Town Hall.
    BumblepantsPitfall69madforLEGOVortex
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    ^are you talking about the Arctic icebreaker set #60062? Certainly orange and not apparently worth $130 msrp.  
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^Alex, What is the Horizon Express?
    TheLoneTensorPitfall69madforLEGO
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    R2D2, the Town Hall, the Haunted Mansion, The Death Star, and others were all very easy to get if you wanted them back when they were released.  If you missed out, you still have options in the secondary market....and today, it is this secondary market that is driving the primary one to the success it is enjoying.
    Vortex
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    The arctic plane I suppose? I'm still kicking myself for not getting more than 5 when they were 40% off in a store in my area... at a moment they were everywhere, the next, all gone.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    @vitreolum....one thing I've noticed over the years, and not just with legos, but the items many people want later are just those items that they once saw in abundance, often then discounted, but still passed on.   I think it is the "no one must want that, therefore, why would I?"   Only later.....
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    I thought about the arctic plane, but I don't remember people complaining about it being overpriced.   And in the U.S. 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    There are sets that I kick myself for not picking up when they were available. For me, these are sets like the Taj Mahal, UCS Millennium Falcon, Carousel, etc. They were there and I was collecting; however, my interest (and willingness to spend enough) wasn't there at the time and I didn't bite. Now my interest is there, but they're too expensive to pickup in the aftermarket. C'est la vie.

    Then there are sets that have done well after retiring that I don't kick myself over missing, and would have never considered picking up even on sale. Those are sets like the Arctic Supply Plane, The Zombies, and the UCS Super Star Destroyer. No matter how well they've performed (and they have performed well), I just don't have any regrets for passing them up because it never would have occurred to me to buy them in the first place. Sans regrets.

    I have learned two things as a collector since coming out of my dark ages. First, pick up at least a single copy of any available set that I may regret missing down the road. Once it retires, the odds are it will go up and I'll have to pay more...sometimes a lot more. And the additional expenditure I make to pick up a retired set is on my head...not the guy selling it to me. Second, make sure I do the first thing.
    pharmjodRennydougtsthedingman5ZegnaAdeelZubairRsa33GoldchainsAmanda1983
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    SumoLego said:
    I've got a DSII that hasn't been out of the shipping box.  Who knows if it is mint or has damage?  But I'm not taking it out to check!
    I have a UCS MF that was in the Lego shipping box that was sealed when I bought it from the lego store.  There were no signs it was ever opened. I opened it to find a small hole right on the picture of Chewbacca.
    Pitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,519
    edited June 2015
    ^ Well that makes me feel very confident.  I'll be suspicious if I have some Yularen faceprints in my UCS MF box...
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I've had a mixed bag of shipments from TLG as of late. A couple shipments arrived in pristine condition; most, not so much. Often the damage is done when TLG uses SmartPost (i.e., torn ApartPost). There are a couple things I would like to see TLG do, which are essentially free and promote customer satisfaction:

    1) Require the TLG shipping department to always pack the polybag on top of the shipping box after it's filled; not pre-packing boxes by tossing in the free polybags first and then stacking the ordered sets on top. TLG needs to remember that customers are paying a lot for a box of plastic, so it only seems proper to at least make an attempt to have the expensive stuff arrive in good shape.

    2) Add labeling to the shipping boxes on all six sides that states the word "FRAGILE!" For obvious reasons, larger orders and sets are shipped using larger boxes. The shipping companies (USPS, UPS, and FEDEX) all sort, pack, haul, and store based on the size of a box, not by weight...unless the package is clearly indicated and shipped as fragile. It's such an inexpensive thing to do, yet it would make a huge difference in the sets' condition upon arrival. I've even made this recommendation to TLG customer service in the past, yet here we are...
    weevinAmanda1983
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,451
    There are sets that I kick myself for not picking up when they were available. For me, these are sets like the Taj Mahal, UCS Millennium Falcon, Carousel, etc. They were there and I was collecting; however, my interest (and willingness to spend enough) wasn't there at the time and I didn't bite. Now my interest is there, but they're too expensive to pickup in the aftermarket. C'est la vie.

    I think everyone gets bitten like that eventually - for me it was Haunted House, I just couldn't justify the cost but kept considering it, when it went OOS before Halloween and the price skyrocketed I kicked myself. Fortunately I'm rational enough to just accept that it's gone because there's no way I'll fork out aftermarket prices for larger sets. 
    TXLegoguyRsa33SumoLegoFarmer_JohnSethro3
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited June 2015
    ^^
    3. Change the shipping box design back to a standard "flap" design instead of the current "tabbed" design. The tabbed design leaves 4 holes in the bottom of the box which small parts can fall through. Also, it leaves exposed packing tape which the receipt or free poster is ALWAYS stuck too.
    weevinFarmer_JohnSethro3
  • Rsa33Rsa33 USAMember Posts: 156
    So much good advice in this thread.

    If only I had the real BTTF Delorean, even for just an afternoon sigh. Oh well, my Lego version will have to suffice :)

    @Farmer_John, you nailed it. Purchase a set you want now, that once it retires youll be kicking yourself if you dont already have. Also, like you, several of the big $$$ sets I could care less for, with no desire to acquire regardless of their current marketvalue as I find them hideous, and would not have purchased them even back in the day when they were rrp (here's looking at you market street, ucs ds ii, etc).

    I feel a lot of the advice in this thread is no different from any other collectors forums I frequent, be it records or rare sneakers. There's the exclusives everyone wants, holy grails that most covet, and lots of regret/remorse :)

    Also, resellers seem to be held in high esteem ;)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I've had a mixed bag of shipments from TLG as of late. A couple shipments arrived in pristine condition; most, not so much. Often the damage is done when TLG uses SmartPost (i.e., torn ApartPost). There are a couple things I would like to see TLG do, which are essentially free and promote customer satisfaction:
    John TLG does not have a shipping department in the USA. All of their fulfillment operations are outsourced. I must say I have never had a package arrive from them sent via SmartPost but that may be due to my location. SmartPost is the absolute worst way to send a package (along with USPS Parcel Post or UPS Surepost) in the USA. I have not purchased from them in 2015 as there are much bigger discounts to be had elsewhere so maybe they have changed to SmartPost recently? IIRC their fulfillment partner changed to a different style of air pillow near the end of last year that truly sucks and that is when I saw a huge drop in the quality of box condition.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    I will second the advice about buying any set you think you might want.  I started doing that about a year into collecting (after regretting missing out on grand carousel, imperial flagship, and emerald night).  You can always resell and at least mostly recoup your money. If you're lucky you will make a profit.  Just did this and it worked quite well. 
    madforLEGO
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    Shib said:
    There are sets that I kick myself for not picking up when they were available. For me, these are sets like the Taj Mahal, UCS Millennium Falcon, Carousel, etc. They were there and I was collecting; however, my interest (and willingness to spend enough) wasn't there at the time and I didn't bite. Now my interest is there, but they're too expensive to pickup in the aftermarket. C'est la vie.

    I think everyone gets bitten like that eventually - for me it was Haunted House, I just couldn't justify the cost but kept considering it, when it went OOS before Halloween and the price skyrocketed I kicked myself. Fortunately I'm rational enough to just accept that it's gone because there's no way I'll fork out aftermarket prices for larger sets. 
    I missed the Haunted House as well. Meant to buy it last summer, but due to car trouble and my then girlfriend now fiance living so far away and trying to get some other things together I just missed it. I'd be willing to pay $300ish for it I think (I caved and spent that on GE because the build looks like a lot of fun), but the prices have soared well beyond that (looking at a quick eBay search). 
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128

    r2 d2 does well because its a statue,not because it is starwars.

    Every statue set from the past has done very well. Yoda, the lego minifigure,the green dragon,the sith lord head,the statue of liberty. They all have been doing extremely well and I think the main reason for that is them being statues. They more or less transcend the theme they belong to and are almost universally attractive.

    Also I saw that several investors in this thread do not look at how good a set is looking. For me the looks and design of a set are extremely important when it comes to the potential of a set.  You are all looking mostly at the sellers side,but you also need to take into account the buyers side, what do they want and what will they buy.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2015
    Pmh said:

    r2 d2 does well because its a statue,not because it is starwars.

    It does well because it's a statue, and because it is Star Wars.

    Pmh said:

    You are all looking mostly at the sellers side,but you also need to take into account the buyers side, what do they want and what will they buy.

    You need to take into account that many of us do take such a thing into account, along with a great deal more.  Please don't generalize that we're guided by ignorance.
    Rsa33Pitfall69FollowsCloselyAdeelZubairGoldchainsSolariousexciter1
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,005
    There hasn't really been a bad statue set has there, at least large scale. You can test that theory if they ever do a naff one.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2015
    ^I just learned a new word :)
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,005
    That'll do.
    juggles7
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