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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 512

    I think the Lone Ranger sets had the same problem as PoP. On the other hand the LR sets can easily be integrated into generic Wild West scenes, while PoP doesn't really mix with any of the standard Lego themes.

    Much as I love the LOTR books, I don't think it was a good fit with Lego. Most of the buildings are just too darn big to have been reasonable-sized sets. Wonderful source material for MOCs, but that's not the same thing.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    I have to take 2-3 continuing education tests a year, so I choose to do most of my reading/studying at those times :)
    Is that for P.E. requirements?
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Why yes...yes it is ;)
    Farmer_John
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,000
    I also liked the PoP sets. Decent minifig parts - including some good armoured and bare fleshie torsos - and animals we would never have otherwise. And the building parts are great for architectural mocs.
    VorpalRyuFarmer_JohnShib
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    exciter1 said:
    Seriously folks, if we start talking about books here I'm gonna get banned for uncontrollable wall-of-texting. I even had to bite my fingers refrain from yelling at @pitfall69 "It's SalMAN!!!"

    Well, according to the Seinfeld episode "The Implant", he changed his name to Sal Bass anyway.
    Just picked up a batch of Series 2 Simpsons minifigs. They're real and they are spectacular.
    Pitfall69DougoutSethro3dougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    Why yes...yes it is ;)
    Yeah...I will happily crawl across broken glass before allowing mine to expire. That exam is a bear with the typical pass rate at less than 50%. The look on the faces of those waiting to take the exam (some having attempted it multiple times) was actually unnerving. I still remember having dreams about it for 2 weeks straight after taking it...pretty intense.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 843
    PoP sets were decent. I especially liked when I found them at 35%+ off. The movie, not as decent. I don't really remember it to be honest.

    Lone Ranger sets were really fun. The movie was decent. I thought it was too long. If they cut out about 30 minutes with some proper editing, it would have done better at the box office I think. Also, the train scene at the end makes the movie (in my opinion).

    Harry Potter sets were decent. I love the books and movies. I didn't get into them until I was an adult, but they are my favorite concept and it is what brought me out of my Dark Ages.

    LOTR/Hobbit sets are hit/miss. I love seeing the characters in LEGO form. I love the LOTR movies, but haven't been able to get into the Hobbit movies. I've only read the Hobbit book and didn't care for it. I have yet to attempt LOTR. My wife did buy me the 50th anniversary leatherbound edition LOTR, so I should break the spine sometime.

    But as far as I look at it, I'm not a (re)seller, so if a set does well in the aftermarket, it won't change how I look at it. But if a set is reasonably priced in the here and now, then I will look at it.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285
    PoP parts are nice only if for a lot of 'earth' colors and Camels. I had two battle of Alamut sets that I decided to break up for parts after seeing what they sets go for at this point. Glad I did. Many nice parts.. So who does not have an Ostrich set at this point?
    pharmjod
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,981
    I think for me there are two different questions in whether PoP sold, and whether they were good sets. I picked up many of them on high discount simply because I felt they had a bunch of play value for my kiddo, and it was a unique line. 
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    PoP parts are nice only if for a lot of 'earth' colors and Camels. I had two battle of Alamut sets that I decided to break up for parts after seeing what they sets go for at this point. Glad I did. Many nice parts.. So who does not have an Ostrich set at this point?
    Whenever I find a good minifig lot, there is always one really cool looking fig with gold on it. And after ID'ing it via BL as POP, disappoint sets in.
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,043
    What are the thoughts on ...

    LOTR 79008 Pirate Ship Ambush?

    It looks pretty cool but I haven't heard anything on it.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    #79008 was available for $88 for some time at large chain store here in Australia. Currently selling for $200+ including shipping on eBay AU. This would give you a minimum of $55 -$70 profit after shipping and fees.

    I think that there is still some more left in this set, but getting to $300 will probably take a fair bit of time IMO.

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    You can get one for $100 at Amazon right now.  It'll never reach $300.  Recently the aftermarket potential for the Sopwith was discussed, now we're asked about the Pirate Ship Ambush.  It would be better to research these sets while still available for purchase at retail, wouldn't it?  The Pirate Ship has been discussed here in this thread.  Might take some time, but you could search and find what's been said about it.  Best I can recall, the expectations for it were pretty low. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    Pitfall69 said:
    Back to the original topic. The Lord of the Rings and Hobbit sets are based off the movies and not the books, so reading or not reading the books has little to do with the Lego sets being popular in the future imo. The question really is if people will be watching the movies many years from now? I'm sure there will be several different movie collections that will be released in the near future to keep the movies fresh in our minds much like Star Wars. There might even be a chance that future movies might be made based off the franchise.
    No Tom Bombadil set?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    79008 LOTR Pirate Ship is an interesting set. Licensed pirate ships can do incredibly well. But something about it just doesn't stand out to me. Can't quite put my finger on it.

    My prediction: If purchased during its long discount period, you'll double your money. But hitting QAR, BP or Destiny's Bounty numbers at 3x or better, I just don't see that.
    Pitfall69juggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I bought a bunch of BP' and QAR's and sold them all. The worst part is that I sold them too soon. I heard that Johnny Depp is in trouple with the Australian government over his dogs.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285
    juggles7 said:
    You can get one for $100 at Amazon right now.  It'll never reach $300.  Recently the aftermarket potential for the Sopwith was discussed, now we're asked about the Pirate Ship Ambush.  It would be better to research these sets while still available for purchase at retail, wouldn't it?  The Pirate Ship has been discussed here in this thread.  Might take some time, but you could search and find what's been said about it.  Best I can recall, the expectations for it were pretty low. 
    I dunno, Id rather have rehashes of what sets could do in the aftermarket than book club
    dougts
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,735
    prevere said:
    79008 LOTR Pirate Ship is an interesting set. Licensed pirate ships can do incredibly well. But something about it just doesn't stand out to me. Can't quite put my finger on it.
    The BP and QAR were pirate ships in movies about pirates. The Corsairs' ship is a pirate ship that doesn't look like a pirate ship that wasn't even in the theatrical release of a movie that wasn't about pirates.
    SumoLego
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    Didn't all the ghosts rush off of it to surprise the Orks (or whatever)?

    I figured this was as close to the Gondor battle as Lego was comfortable touching for the most part
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Yes, it was in the theatrical version. Just not a lot of screen time.
    Pitfall69
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2015
    binaryeye said:
    prevere said:
    79008 LOTR Pirate Ship is an interesting set. Licensed pirate ships can do incredibly well. But something about it just doesn't stand out to me. Can't quite put my finger on it.
    The BP and QAR were pirate ships in movies about pirates. The Corsairs' ship is a pirate ship that doesn't look like a pirate ship that wasn't even in the theatrical release of a movie that wasn't about pirates.
    This, kinda :)

    Basically it's a ship that isn't a grandiose frigate sailing ship.  Drawing a comparison with modern military vessels, this ship is more like a destroyer, when what people really want is a battleship or aircraft carrier.
  • Coolguy5000Coolguy5000 Ireland Member Posts: 1,565
    How long  do  people  think  the helicarrier  will last.  Hoping to  get  it in October  but don't  want  to  miss out 
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,397
    How long  do  people  think  the helicarrier  will last.  Hoping to  get  it in October  but don't  want  to  miss out 
    You've got plenty of time. :)
    Pitfall69pharmjoddougts
  • Maxime_1987Maxime_1987 Member Posts: 34
    It might be too early to tell, but I like to predict ahead or just for ''fun''. What do you guys think of the jurassic sets? Not a good idea to invest in those or not? I know we will have to wait to see how it goes in the long run but still! 

    I like to believe a lot of children would like to have those sets. Specially for the different dinosaurs! 

    And Yeah I believe the LOTR sets will do good but in a long term. Specially if they want to remade the original movies or they want to add sequel such as the different books. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    ^ I would imagine the Helicarrier will be around for another 2+ years.  One would assume it'll make an appearance in next year's Captain America sequel and down the Road in the Avengers: Infinity Wars, Dr. Strange and Black Panther.

    The UCS Super Star Destroyer was around for a fairly long period of time - which is probably the most comparable set. 
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    edited May 2015
    The Helicarrier from Avengers 2 seems like it's going to make regular appearance on Agents of SHIELD. It may even be the next season's home base set. 

    Helicarriers do get blown up a LOT though so you never know
    Amanda1983
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    How long  do  people  think  the helicarrier  will last.  Hoping to  get  it in October  but don't  want  to  miss out 
    Helicarrier is out another few years I think. As for an investment, I would need at least a 30% discount to have the slightest of interest.
    juggles7
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    It might be too early to tell, but I like to predict ahead or just for ''fun''. What do you guys think of the jurassic sets? Not a good idea to invest in those or not? I know we will have to wait to see how it goes in the long run but still!
    I was disappointed to see there's no "battle pack", meaning there's no low-price offering in the 9.99-12.99 range.  Hope that's not a new trend for the smallest, cheapest set in a theme to be $20.  Whether the movies are good enough to be remembered and replayed in future years will be an important factor in how well these do in the aftermarket.  I hope the new movie can bring us something new and fresh, rather than just another predictable rehash. 

    Like the dinosaur line before it, these will do well when there are no dinosaur sets at retail, but aftermarket prices should fall hard when the next dinosaur crop arrives a year or two later.  I think buying at a discount would be a must for these.  Here's hoping that my local WalMarts buy way too many, so I can pick up a few on the cheap toward the end of their run. 
    Maxime_1987pharmjod
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,451
    I don't think there is a precedent being set on what sized sets they'll do for each licence theme, I think it's more on a one by one basis - take the Marvel sets for example: AoU smallest is £12 while GotG smallest was £20 while Ant Man is only getting a single £20 set.
    I suspect that the marketing team test the viability for price points in a theme, no doubt the licencing agreement will have some stipulations of what must be released too and then the price points inform what the set designs can be
    juggles7
  • Coolguy5000Coolguy5000 Ireland Member Posts: 1,565
    Thanks  all for  the  advice! 
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I still think it's funny that one of the highest profitable sets in the past 4 years that was practically never mentioned as a good investment.

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Super-Heroes-Iron-4529/dp/B005KISWSE/ref=sr_1_13?s=toys-and-games&ie=UTF8&qid=1433205572&sr=1-13&keywords=lego+iron+man



    brickupdate
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,068
    They are not selling for that price. The volume is low also.
    madforLEGO
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    A good investment increases in value despite how many people bought it. The Iron Man was not a good investment; it is only listed at that price because there are not a lot of them out there, so "rarity" is driving the value. Had people invested in this set, the price wouldn't be nearly high as it is today.
    FollowsCloselymadforLEGOMilne44
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I know what I said seems obvious, but low production numbers can mean a few different things. A set that may not be popular and doesn't sell well. A set that may be popular, but was cost prohibitive to many (UCS MF). A set that was an exclusive and was only available at certain places (The Zombies) or a set that was purposely made as a collector set and was produced in small numbers ( #41999 ). Marvel is popular,  but the Iron Man set was most likely not, so there were not many people who bought these (myself) and now there aren't many out there.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    Frankly, it's an ugly set.
    Pitfall69pharmjodFollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^...And therefore, the reason why it hasn't been discussed ;)
    FollowsCloselywagnerml2
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    I smell a new discussion thread - "Predictions on Horribly Ugly or Irrelevant Sets that Resellers will Claim are Rare and Expensive, But that Nobody Wants"
    brickupdateAmanda1983
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Believe it or not, there are people who want these Ultrabuild figures and are willing to pay a high price for them.  Otherwise, sellers wouldn't be asking so much.  Rarity alone doesn't explain it, and saying that buying these was not a good investment doesn't make sense to me.  Anything that scores you a nice profit was, in hindsight, a good investment.  And that's despite the fact that they don't look good when built, were sold in flimsy packaging, and there are cheap Chinese counterfeits that look pretty darn close. You won't ever be able to predict that items like this will increase in value because they simply shouldn't. Bottom line for resellers: don't worry about missing out on investing in crap.  And continue to NOT invest in crap.
    Brickaholic
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    He meant they were not a good investment because he never bought any.
    Hopefully everyone does'nt buy the new Star Wars crappy ones  ;)





      


     


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited June 2015
    ^That is not what I meant. I doubt many people "invested" in these sets. To me, buying a crappy $15 set on sale and having it skyrocket in price does not make it a good investment. These people have just got lucky that there's a few crazy people that want this set and are happy to pay a lot of money for one. There aren't people that are sitting on 30-40 these because they thought it was a good investment. 
    madforLEGOpharmjoddougtswagnerml2
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    edited June 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
     These people have just got lucky that there's a few crazy people that want this set and are happy to pay a lot of money for one. There aren't people that are sitting on 30-40 of these because they thought it was a good investment.
    I know what you meant but i disagree. Personally i would call it good judgement whoever bought 30 - 40 of these, because it has proved to be a correct decision nothing to do with luck. Maybe they will be £100 in 2 years who knows?

    People buying them are also not crazy, they want something and they buy it. No different to someone paying xx amount for a 10 year old bottle of wine really. 

    Just my opinion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    This shows that not only are they not selling at the high prices they are listed for, but there aren't many that are being sold.
    madforLEGO
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Thats right, most were sold Christmas 2013 for 20- 30% more than now. Reached 100 Dollars in the US.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    For Iron Man to have such low transaction numbers is telling.
  • david325david325 Member Posts: 138
    Pitfall69 said:
    To me, buying a crappy $15 set on sale and having it skyrocket in price does not make it a good investment. 
    Then I'd hate to think what you do call a good investment.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,506
    ^ I think he meant that it's pure speculation to buy an ugly $15.00 set on clearance and not a reasoned investment based on the performance of comparable sets.

    Lottery ticket speculation 'investing'.

    As compared to actual investing in the UCS MF, where a $400.00 set is now worth thousands.  Or another high-performing set.
    Pitfall69madforLEGOpharmjodVorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I don't think I am making myself clear. I am saying that people did not invest in this set for obvious reasons. Buying ONE...Numeral UNO $15 set doesn't mean you invested in the set. If you bought 5, 10, 15 of these thinking that they would do well in the Aftermarket, then that is investing in a set. I am fairly sure most people did not buy this set in multiples thinking it would be a great investment. 
    madforLEGOpharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoFollowsClosely
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Is Ecto-1 gone already? I went to grab a few this morning on the Winter Soldier promo and they are gone from Lego.com (USA).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Good news is that the Exo Suit is still around ;)
    PoochyVorpalRyudougtsSumoLegojuggles7AdeelZubair
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