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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • woony2woony2 UKMember Posts: 336
    ^ that would make collecting easier as I think from memory there's only about 9 sets that actually say it on the box.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Any SW set that has 1,927 pieces and 17 minifigs is an ultimate one in my book.
    bluedragonTXLegoguynexanderexciter1AdeelZubair
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,511
    edited May 2015
    Geez.  I was confounded there for a minute.

    Although I don't see too many spots where a NISB UCS Naboo Fighter is available for lessthan $500...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I could have sworn the VW would be gone last year when they threw in a mini-VW poly with the purchase of a big one. The lesson learned for me from this is that if TLG ever throws in mini-death star polybag with the purchase of a large scaled one, I won't take the bait. That's just one in a list of about 50 reasons I wouldn't consider purchasing a DS. That and it's not a true UCS set... :wink: 
    Legoboygoshe7brickupdateGoldchains
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,835
    ^ Double thumbs up.  :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    SumoLego said:
    Geez.  I was confounded there for a minute.

    Although I don't see too many spots where a NISB UCS Naboo Fighter is available for lessthan $500...
    This set is a thorn in my side. Very, very difficult to piece together. I'm one decorated chrome silver wedge short. The darn things are never available on BL.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Which wedge? The large one? Right or left? I may have one.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    That would be swell. The right one.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,117
    ^How far to Paradisa from your place?
    prevere
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited May 2015
    10 minutes by ferry. Fabuland is a haul - too many tolls. ;)
    Pitfall69Bumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I got a Naboo Starfighter in a lot I bought not too long ago. There were pieces, but apparently not the whole thing. If it turns up, I will let you know. Sorry :(
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Appreciate it.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    I could have sworn the VW would be gone last year when they threw in a mini-VW poly with the purchase of a big one. The lesson learned for me from this is that if TLG ever throws in mini-death star polybag with the purchase of a large scaled one, I won't take the bait. That's just one in a list of about 50 reasons I wouldn't consider purchasing a DS. That and it's not a true UCS set... :wink: 

    I dunno, if the DS poly was as cool as the mini VW bus, I'd bite!
    SumoLego
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Tell you what, make a special mini DS as an ornament for the next SW Advent Calendar "Day 25", and you'd get me to bite.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Not me, I am not going to bite. The DS is long in the tooth and I was ready to move on a while ago. Looking forward to seeing "The Force Awakens" sets.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I meant a mini DS. As for the regular one, oh, I'm done with that. Frankly, even if they updated it, I wouldn't touch a new one either.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    3stackshs said:
    same could be said for the past 508 pages.  It's the prediction thread not the guarantee thread.  I get confused sometimes too though.  All you can do is shake it off and try again tomorrow
    prevere said:
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    The monkey sees everything.


    A flag? Really? Seriously, it is a crap shoot trying to figure out what sets will EOL/Retire. All you can do is make an educated guess based on previous data. 
    SumoLego
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    3stackshs said:
    same could be said for the past 508 pages.  It's the prediction thread not the guarantee thread.  I get confused sometimes too though.  All you can do is shake it off and try again tomorrow
    prevere said:
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    The monkey sees everything.


    A flag? Really? Seriously, it is a crap shoot trying to figure out what sets will EOL/Retire. All you can do is make an educated guess based on previous data. 
    SumoLego
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128
    edited May 2015

    Today I bought my first set that has the potential to be an investment.

    I got the tower of ortanc for 195 euro in a lego stor (a tembo, best lego store in the Netherlands) while it is already retired at lego.

    This set has potential I think for 2 reasons,1:it is a rare set. More rare then many of the other expensive sets so the first criteria for investment is met (the set being rare). 2:It is a popular theme, lord of the rings is based on a book that will be read 100 years from now and I think the theme of the book will always be appealing, and with that the set should be appealing and desireable as well so my 2nd criterium for investing is also met (the set has to be desirable,look good/have an appealing theme). I think the popularity of lotr will last longer then the popularity of recent movies that are not realy based on anything and that also have several lego sets.

    Also there is this thing of over saturation,that is now happening with starwars lego. There are so many different sets from so many different vehicles and ships that a new set is like a drop in the ocean, it somehow doesn't feel special anymore,its just another ship/vehicle where we already have 100+. All the truly iconic ones have already been made and starwars as a theme is not as popular as it was like in the 80,s. There are many popular and alternative themes now like the hobit/lotr or the marvel super heros (never understood why people like that btw,but I do see its popular in the states)

    Will still make the tower and not use it as an investment but I do think it can reach ~500 in 2 years.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,069
    Rip the seals and enjoy! I have only 10 as I am a bit nervous on this one.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Not feeling 10237 either. It has the Diagon Alley vibe all over it. SW is where the big money will be made the next 5 years.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^^^Apparently, someone is monkeying around with a post I made a few days ago ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Personally, I would buy The Tumbler before I would buy The Tower of Orthanc with my investment dollars.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,511
    Tough to say how many Orthancs were produced, much like the DS.

    Now I want a mini-Orthanc and mini-DS!
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,511
    How many people are really hoarding Diagon Alley expecting disproportionate growth?

    I hoarded a bunch of UCS Batmobiles from Toys 'r' Us because nobody was buying them.  Happy coincidence they've shot up dramatically in price recently.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    edited May 2015
    I think this is where we are these days. I changed strategy some time ago and 'only' have 5 of each exclusive that's  more than likely to retire in the next 12 months. I no longer have that confidence to go in big on one set so I'm just spread betting. I have a reasonable stash of retired exclusives that are doing well but I refuse to sell them to finance new sets due to the lack of confidence I'm experiencing. I genuinely believe that for myself this year the best plan is to sit tight and do relatively little. Loads will disagree but the set I've most confidence in performing post eol is #10214
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I only have 3 DA's left. I have been selling them gradually. 
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    @Pmh , you don't understand why people like Marvel Superheroes? The Age of Ultron has grossed over $1.18 Billion. It is already the 8th highest grossing film of All-Time. Star Wars not as popular as a theme? There is a reason why there are a ton of Star Wars sets. Disney wouldn't be making more Star Wars movies if it wasn't popular. 
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128
    edited May 2015

    Hmm, no I do understand. I just mean that to me its not appealing. Movies bring in more money every year and every decade. Sometimes I think its due to inflation,lol.And Disney will keep making movies off course,its what Disney does. I do see that marvel super heroes is very popular in the usa and maybe also in asia. Here in Europe its not such a huge hype i think,though I am also a bit to old to judge that to be honest. Still I wonder how popular it will be in say one decade from now.

    I didn't follow anything lego when the diagon alley set came out but I do think there are a few differences with the tower.First,while de diagon aley definitely does not look bad it does not have that wow factor,at least for me. The tower has that wow factor,it looks stunning (from the pictures,havent finished building yet) and its just absolutely bad ass. Who here didn't try to build the highest lego tower at least once as a kid? Then second I think the theme of lord of the rings has a bit more "staying power" then harry potter, even though I personally like them equally. Also important is that there are not to many lotr sets,its not impossible to collect them all,and the theme is nicely continued with the hobbit line that also only has a few sets. Some of those sets seem to do pretty well already.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    Personally, I would buy The Tumbler before I would buy The Tower of Orthanc with my investment dollars.
    Yeah...this is a tough call for me because I really like both sets. But if I absolutely had to choose one set over the other, I would go with the UCS Tumbler too. Toss in a Bat-Pod and it's game over.

    Interestingly enough on the topic of the UCS Tumbler, I noticed that it's now being sold on Amazon for RRP; not some outrageous inflated price that these types of sets usually go for. I was a bit surprised as I hadn't seen that before for this set.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    The more I think of Orthanc long term, the less I like the set. I have it still new and sealed, but can't find the desire to actually build it. Looking at the up close pics, it appears to be a very basic build experience that is compensated by the tall size of the finished piece.

    While the Tumbler on the other hand, was a Day 1 build situation where I couldn't wait to break the seals. Yesterday I disassembled it after 8 months on display and had a great time breaking it down, now eagerly awaiting to rebuild it again one day. It's a very technical build where one can admire the amount of thought it took to get the design just right and the panels all correct.

    If Orthanc and Tumbler both went EOL today, Tumbler would smash the pace of Orthanc hands down.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,069
    ...

    If Orthanc and Tumbler both went EOL today, Tumbler would smash the pace of Orthanc hands down.
    I agree. However, you have *more time to acquire the tumbler. I have my target of ToO, I have yet to buy a tumbler. I will start acquiring tumblers early in 2016.

    * This could also be interpreted as less.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^I agree on timing tho, Orthanc is on deck for EOL. Hard to see it making into 2016. Tumbler we still have time on for at least a year.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    If Orthanc and Tumbler both went EOL today, Tumbler would smash the pace of Orthanc.


    This entire statement is not helpful. Of course the Tumbler would outpace orthanc. It's a relatively new set. All things equal (time on the market) you may still be correct But that is part of the gamble. Just buy a few of both :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    SumoLego said:
    How many people are really hoarding Diagon Alley expecting disproportionate growth?

    I hoarded a bunch of UCS Batmobiles from Toys 'r' Us because nobody was buying them.  Happy coincidence they've shot up dramatically in price recently.
    Yeah, that UCS Batmobile has really taken off and just after the Tumbler came out. I still have some DAs left. Worth holding for a few years - as once that supply gets thin, it'll shoot up (or it makes for a great part-out set still).
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Timing won't matter to the new hobby reseller as much as the fixed return in dollars at the end. But for most other sellers dealing in multiples or volume then you're right, as ROI in time is a stronger driver. Or if you're investing using leverage.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,511
    I am weary of the sheer volume of Star Wars sets.  I don't see much positive investing potential in the Rebels, Clone Wars or sub-theme sets.

    The recently retired Sopwith Camel is another curious set for investment potential.  
    Farmer_John
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    I don't see much potential in Sopwith Camel. I'm even surprised it lasted so long for it to retire. Sure it will slowly increase, but it's going to be hard to sell.

    Agree about CW and Rebels, aside from some selected sets and figs there's not much there. Still I rate Rebels waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of CW, especially the figs which are no longer looking like freakshow material next to the other figures
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2015
    SumoLego said:
    I am weary of the sheer volume of Star Wars sets.  I don't see much positive investing potential in the Rebels, Clone Wars or sub-theme sets.

    The recently retired Sopwith Camel is another curious set for investment potential.  
    In general, the tired rehashes of SW bore me. And the Rebels/Clones, etc. are at a level below those.

    As a set, I really like the Sopwith Camel. If TLG ever re-releases the Red Baron, then I would expect the SC to go up overnight accordingly. Once can only hope.
    FollowsCloselypharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoTheLoneTensorAdeelZubairGoldchains
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128
    edited May 2015

    Hmm the London tower bridge is an interesting situation. It seems to have good value already with 4k parts for 200 (even though that includes 500+1x1 sloped tiles) and it has been out for so long now. It should have potential but there are a few things I don't like.

    I don't like the set itself,it does not look bad but the scaling is of with everything else and it would purely be a display model on its own without any accompanying models. But for a display model the seize is rather large,its not so easy to display in your living room as for example a tower of ortanc. Also the subject of the set limits its potential for me,it is a landmark but its not a landmark like the statue of liberty,the eifel tower,or the gizeh pyramid. I think it is something that will appeal mostly and almost only to people from England. Then its also been out for 5 years, everyone who wanted the set has had the time to buy it. Think its still a relativly safe investment due to the value it has for parts but I would not expect this set to do above average after retirement.


    Sopwith camel I love, I would buy the set in the store right now if it was possible.Its still cheap from resellers,about 80-120 I have seen them for offer. Would be so much better if lego made a series of a classic airplane every year,now its a bit of a stand alone. Will probably buy one for 100 soon because it looks awesome.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,003
    Why would Tower Bridge only appeal to someone from England (or the wider UK), yet other landmarks appeal to a wider audience? Surely it would appeal to anyone that likes London. 

    I have no interest in or connection to New York, and thus the Statue of Liberty has little interest to me as a display model.
    SuperTrampVorpalRyuDadFollowsCloselyPate5346Sethro3Amanda1983
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,117
    edited May 2015
    The fact that they have been able to sell them since 2010 says a lot about if it is popular or not. Everyone likes bridges. Bridges are cool. I wouldn't be surprised if they did a Golden Gate Bridge once Tower Bridge finally expires.
    VorpalRyuFollowsCloselytiminchicagoSethro3
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited May 2015
    lol, what's are bridge ever done to foreigners?

    No one likes it.
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128
    edited May 2015

    Its true that its a bridge,the only big bridge there is atm from lego and that for me slightly increases its potential as there are no alternatives if you want to have a big lego bridge.

    That it took 5 years+ to sell the initial run is not a good sign,but on the other hand that means that the set might be relatively rare. (unless they made like 10k+ in the first run,i have no idea about that to be honest)

    Golden gate from lego would be awesome,would probably buy that if they made it look good. Tower bridge will appeal to foreigners but I think it will appeal less then sets like the eifel tower. Its not a bad set and I still might buy eventually. I know I will regret it if I don't before it retires. Don't think lego will make any other bridge soon,as this was not a big success.

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited May 2015
    Who says TLG are still selling their initial run?

    How do you know it's not a big success?
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7Sethro3
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    It must be a success as it's still selling well 5yrs plus! If it was not it would of been retired years ago. 
    juggles7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,511
    edited May 2015
    SumoLego said:
    I am weary of the sheer volume of Star Wars sets.  I don't see much positive investing potential in the Rebels, Clone Wars or sub-theme sets.

    The recently retired Sopwith Camel is another curious set for investment potential.  
    In general, the tired rehashes of SW bore me. And the Rebels/Clones, etc. are at a level below those.

    As a set, I really like the Sopwith Camel. If TLG ever re-releases the Red Baron, then I would expect the SC to go up overnight accordingly. Once can only hope.


    I agree!  I hope they do re-release that set.  The original Red Baron was a rickety mess, but I looks great on a shelf.  Although my shelf would get a bit crowded...


    Farmer_JohnSethro3AdeelZubair
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,069
    Pmh said:

    ...

    That it took 5 years+ to sell the initial run is not a good sign,but on the other hand that means that the set might be relatively rare. (unless they made like 10k+ in the first run,i have no idea about that to be honest)

    ...

    The last one I purchased had 2014 seal codes. I have multiple different 2012 and 2013 seal codes as well in my storage. This set has been packaged multiple times every year over the past 5 years.
    Amanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The Salmon Capital of the World
    SumoLegoGoldchains
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The Salmon Capital of the World

    TheLoneTensormatticus_bricksBrickarmorSumoLegoexciter1Goldchains
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