Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SuperTramp

What would be the difference between the OT UCS MF and the new movie falcon?

Pitfall69

So far, only the radar dish, but it has been 32 years and I have no doubt there have been some changes. Look what Boba Fett did to Jango Fett's Slave 1.

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

With that said, I don't think we will be seeing another OT Millennium Falcon for a very long time. I also think that we won't see a UCS OT Millennium Falcon. Lego is going to want to push sets for the new Star Wars movies and Star Wars Anthology Series movies. I doubt we will be seeing much OT and Prequel Lego sets in the future, which may bode well for resellers.

Pitfall I have heard the new falcon will be VERY similar to 7965 with the most obvious change the radar dish. I also heard a new UCS Falcon was prototyped but shelved due to the cost. I expect alot of the current OT sets will be retired and the focus will be on the new movies. The big exception will be the new DS in 2016 that updates 10188. All rumors at this point until we get the pics at the end of the year.

wrangler6915

So if I have a 7965 to sell, do I sell now or do I wait until the new one comes out? Which time frame would yield the highest resale price?

pharmjod

If the new AT-AT, Cantina and Star Destroyer make it past Christmas I'll be surprised. I think the lifespan of the recent Sail Barge #75020 is likely indicative of what we can expect with the OT stuff out right now. I still haven't bought a Star Destroyer but I have picked up several AT-ATs. If they don't make it to Christmas, I think they will do pretty good in retirement. I agree with @Pitfall69 & @doriansdadI don't think we will see as much OT stuff moving forward. 

I'm looking forward to the Throne Room set and the UCS Hoth Playset.

doriansdad

Sounds like a plan pharmjod.

UCS Hoth Playset or UCS AT-AT? :wink: 

pharmjod

doriansdad said:

UCS Hoth Playset or UCS AT-AT? :wink: 

Ok, now you're just jerking chains :)

exciter1

wrangler6915 said:

So if I have a 7965 to sell, do I sell now or do I wait until the new one comes out? Which time frame would yield the highest resale price?

Many are already selling.  You are the only one who can come up with an acceptable resale price to you.  They are fetching around $250 now, which is very acceptable for most, since many got them below $100.

Pitfall69

$250 is more than acceptable price for #7965. On Setember 4th at midnight stores around the world will open their doors for a celebration of all things Star Wars and that will be the official release date of The Force Awakens merchandise. Books, action figures, apparel and Lego sets will be available to purchase. #75105 Millennium Falcon will be available for $149.99. With that said, you should not only sell before September 4th, but before Lego releases official pictures and descriptions of the sets.

111ins

What are everyone's thoughts about selling a first edition 10179? wait for the hype of the movie and Christmas or sell it now?
I do have one that I Bricklinked to build for myself... back when you could get the rigging pieces for $1.50 each from LEGO

FollowsClosely

I sold my last one a year back. If you are in this for the money, there are much better places to park 3 grand.

BrickDancer

^I would sell off 95% of my collection before I sold the Falcon. But that might just be me. Have you built it once at least?

FollowsClosely

Woud you rather have 1 mf or 20 pet shops? I usually want fewer larger sets, but the falcon can not keep up with new rerires.

pharmjod

^What @FollowsClosely said. 

111ins

I guess if I part ways the misb ucs falcon.... anyone?  I could catch up on my modular inventory. 

Pitfall69

You could, but you would probably only get a CC and a GG in trade ;)

SumoLego

If they did consider another UCS MF, everyone and their grandma would buy three and then be surprised when the price doesn't exponentially. Lego investors would buy bushels and similarly wonder why they can't retire on profit from selling the sets.

If everyone expects a set to be collectible, it often isn't if we stockpile those sets.

weaselking

Pitfall69 said:

$250 is more than acceptable price for #7965. On Setember 4th at midnight stores around the world will open their doors for a celebration of all things Star Wars and that will be the official release date of The Force Awakens merchandise. Books, action figures, apparel and Lego sets will be available to purchase. #75105 Millennium Falcon will be available for $149.99. With that said, you should not only sell before September 4th, but before Lego releases official pictures and descriptions of the sets.

I don't resale anything, so I'm the last person in the world to question this. Are you implying demand for 7965 will drop a lot? It is at least tied to the classic trilogy which has to play into the desirability, no? The 75105 will not have the same mini-figs, it will have the Awakens box art, and the Falcon itself will be different (albeit not drastically).

prevere

^I also see demand dropping slightly in the fall before picking up again at prime Xmas buying season. Parents buying for little Johnny won't care about the differences. 7965 has now become a SW adult collector's item.

Final_Sign

I'm no expert, but I would assume the fate of 7965 somewhat depends on what exactly the new MF (and any future ones) are like. 

If any future MF sets are the same or better, then demand for older MF sets will decline as the new sets "replace" the old sets.

If any future MF set seems inferior, or is significantly different due to the differences in Episode VII MF then collectors might still desire the older sets such as 7965.

Holding any set you plan to resell and trying to figure out if you should sell it before or after a remake is released is just a gamble on which of the above scenarios you think will play out.

doriansdad

For SW I prefer to sell sooner rather than later as a rehash is always imminent and I like to use profits to buy more inventory to resell in the future. Having said that I don't think we will see alot of OT rehashes for a while as there should be plenty of new vehicles for Disney and TLG to make into sets. Unfortunately substitutes for the falcon and x-wings are in the new movie so they will take a hit - big or small I do not know.

Dougout

I'm surprised 7965 has gone up so much, so a dip wouldn't surprise me.  It is like trying to predict the future with anything else though, always easier with hindsight.

Speaking of the Millenium Falcon, did anyone see the 10,000 piece one some guys built?  Oh, nevermind it's in the next thread.

Rails

Dougout said:Speaking of the Millenium Falcon, did anyone see the 10,000 piece one some guys built?  I'd post a pick, but I don't want to be scolded today.

Already being discussed :) http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/19826/can-we-talk-about-this#latest

binaryeye

Although I'm not a set reseller, I'm feeling a bit dumb for not picking up the pair of #7965 I found on clearance at Target for $70 each. I can see why so many collectors resell on the side.

goshe7

^ For the most part, I think it is very hard for a collector-first/reseller-second to lose when purchasing a set on clearance.  You can almost always recover your purchase price and expenses.

That being said, I also passed on the #7965 at clearance time as there were already rumors of the next MF.  Knowing that rehash sets can affect the aftermarket price, I felt the risk of "minimal gain" was too substantial to make it worth investing.  For my mode of collector/reseller balance, I felt there were better options for me to purchase at clearance time.  

Pitfall69

^I don't understand? How is a $140+ profit a minimal gain?

goshe7

^ At the time of my decision making to buy or pass, I did not know that I could be selling for $250 in May 2015.  And since Target's near me rarely have any remaining inventory after 30% markdown, I was looking at a higher purchase price than $70.

Of course if I knew it would sell for $250 presently I would have bought even at 30% markdown.  Actually, if I had that kind of ability, I would be sitting on a half-mountain of Market Streets and Green Grocers.  (The other half already being sold for massive profit, of course!) ;)

Pitfall69

I don't have a large stack of #7965 's , but I do have enough to make me happy :) Regardless whether a new Millennium Falcon was on the horizon, I knew there was money to be had. I had no doubt I could get at least a $100 profit on each set. What I didn't know, was how long it would take to reach that number. I am pleasantly surprised :)

Farmer_John

The big question is whether the new MF version will differ significantly enough from #7965? As was mentioned above, the minifigs will certainly be different (including a wrinkled Han Solo) and a few other cosmetic changes (pardon the pun). Beyond that, probably not a lot of differences.

The next question is how will the new movie drive interest in the old SW sets? Again as was mentioned above, I can also see the new movies providing new material for different ships. Unfortunately, the four ships I remember from the new trailers are 1) X-Wings, 2) a crashed Star Destroyer, and 3) Tie Fighters, and 4) the MF. All look basically the same as Episodes IV-VI.

I think the best cast scenario is that set #7965 levels off (pardon the pun again).

Pitfall69

The Tie fighters will definitely be different in the new movie. As of right now the color schemes are different 

Pitfall69

Although, in this picture, they look closer to the original,  but dark grey instead of light grey. Maybe throughout the movie, they change.

VorpalRyu

^ Looks like the panels in the second pic are the same white-tish material to me. Also looks like mirror finish viewport panels, interesting change.

Solarious

Perhaps they arnt even the same TIEs
Who says the "Empire" have to be the villians in the new film?
While I hardly see the Empire falling apart immediatley because their leader died (even a cult driven society wouldn't just suddenly cease to exist), I do see it being possible that a "good" faction could break off. If this is the case, I can see the white wings being different just so that they can be visually identified while in a combat situation and you have 50 of these things zipping around.

Farmer_John

^While that is a certainly a possibility, the good guy (Poe Dameron) is flying an X-Wing and the trailer shows Tie Fighters chasing the MF. My hunch is that it's status quo.

Lobot

 Pitfall69 said:

Although, in this picture, they look closer to the original,  but dark grey instead of light grey. Maybe throughout the movie, they change.

Don't worry, by the time they've added the lens flaring you won't be able to tell....! ;)

MugenPower

From what I remember of the X-Wings in the trailer, they're also slightly different.  The 4 engines no longer have round intakes but are semi-circular.  I wouldn't be surprised if there are other differences as well.

binaryeye

MugenPower said:

From what I remember of the X-Wings in the trailer, they're also slightly different.  The 4 engines no longer have round intakes but are semi-circular.  I wouldn't be surprised if there are other differences as well.

The other main difference is the split-wing. When collapsed, it looks like the ship has only one wing on each side. But from the engine nacelles out, the wings are split from front to back. When they open, the front half goes down and the rear half goes up.

Pmh

Hey, first let me say that I am not a fan of investing in lego and that I do think that you are all sitting on a big bubble lol,but I do have 1 tip for you all.

The mini lego modular set is the most promising investment I think. This set was available for 65 euro till at least 3 weeks ago in the Netherlands and I think it should still be available at many places in the world. It is a very rare set and I can see this set do very well once it is completely retired.

Another thing I heard,this is just a rumour and not to upset any of you guys... is that lego will release all the modular again around june. A guy in the shop told me this but tbh I don't believe this myself. I don't think the early modular sets will come back but I am quiet confident that at least the pet shop will be limited available again,as it is not officially retired.

CCC

Pmh said:

Another thing I heard,this is just a rumour and not to upset any of you guys... is that lego will release all the modular again around june.

Yeah, right.

Pitfall69

Rainstorm26

I think he is saying he saw the min modular lego set on sale. He saw the word modular and lego in the name then thought sure bet. Then he plunked $50000 down on the set and ordered a couple of pallets. 

Pmh

Hmm not quiet.

The reason I am optimistic about this set specific is that it is one of the more rare modular sets. I am pessimistic about modular sets in general. Most people who are getting back into lego wont be able to afford and collect all the modular pieces, let alone at the current inflated prices for retired sets. They will just spend their money on the sets that are available at that time. The only demand for the retired modular will come from the lego whales who can afford and who would want to have all the modular sets. This is imo a very small group of people and I do think that the hoarded supply is enough to satisfy this demand for years to come. I also think that lego company itself is not entirely happy with the current situation even though it does allow them to sell the rare and hard to get sets at a faster rate,toys are meant to be played with and not meant to sit on the shelve. There is also a financial incentive,as someone willing to spend 2k on a grand carousel could also spend 2k at lego.

Why I think the mini modular set is the most promising? It is one of the more rare sets and I think it is very appealing,it will draw demand from people who can not afford to buy the whole range of modulars and it is also a great display piece for your home. Your wife might want all the lego out of her sight in the basement,but a mini modular set in the living room might be negotiable. I think this set is very desireable,more so then the other modular buildings.

Solarious

^ no offense man, but the last 506 pages of this very thread directly contradict most of your post 

You could be right and the bubble could very well pop at any time but to say that adults getting back into Lego can't afford expensive modular sets (or want to) is just flat wrong. 

VorpalRyu

^^ Hate to say it, but you'd be surprised at the money some people coming back into Lego have, one of my friends who has been eyeing off my stuff has been saving for a rainy day since he was sixteen. He's pretty much set up, but has nothing to spend his cash on, no hobbies at all, he could easily drop $10-15k on Lego & still not have any money concerns. Not everyone has a partner &/or kids to worry about, not all of the people getting back into Lego are on a budget.

Pitfall69

I'm confused. Didn't the Mini Modulars retire 1 1/2 years ago? I have have heard people say that the Mini Modulars satisfies their need to have the expensive Modulars, but I don't understand that. Will buying a scale model of an expensive car satisfy my need to own one? Anyway, there are plenty of people that have the money to buy expensive retired sets; that is why there is an aftermarket in the first place.

TheLoneTensor

Something new arrived, and you're feeding it.

piratemania7

^^^^^I think you have an affinity for the mini modular and have a laser focus on that set.  TLG has produced so many sets over the years that everyone everywhere has a "favorite" set.  But that does not mean it is the most promising for the aftermarket.

and about "promising" there is nothing to foresee as the set is already retired. Just relax and take your time and peruse this site as well as a number of other AFOL and plain old LEGO hobby enthusiast websites and you will quickly understand how big this world is.

Solarious

^Are there wrong places?

doriansdad

Pmh said:

I think this set is very desireable,more so then the other modular buildings.

So exactly how many 10230 are you stuck with? 

Solarious

Amazon has it for $200
if he did buy at 65 that's not too bad