Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

goshe7

^I panicked that it was gone and I missed the opportunity to be the first to post a lament about not getting one before it retired. :)

 I assume the smiley at the end of the refenced post means the comment was made tongue-in-cheek.

SumoLego

Nobody has a sense of humor around here.

cloaked7

brickupdate said:

I saw the posts above that Death Star had sold out and was unavailable, and I panicked. I totally missed out. Majorly bummed.

But then I went to LEGO.com and saw that it was indeed available again. Amazon still has it too. I think I'll wait to purchase. 

 ;) 

Now that is funny.  :-)  And, as strange as it is, I can relate.  I'm just going along my merry way with intentions of buying that LEGO set I want later, then one day I realize it's retired and out of stock everywhere!  All of the sudden I'm not feeling well.  Panic sets in.  Earlier I wanted the set.  Now I have to have it!  I must have it!  At all costs!  Now it's to eBay, to buy the set at an inflated price.  That's sad, but it's even worse. I'm an eBay reseller!  You'd think I'd know better! :-)

BrickDancer

^That was my story on the Emerald Night. Passed on it at 25% discount, then later on bought it on ebay at 50% mark-up.

prevere

I should have done that with SSD. But passing at this point pretty much means I'll never get it.

SumoLego

^ Seems that way until the bubble bursts!

piratemania7

as for the DS two things have kept me from purchasing it.  1.  I have zippo when it comes to SW, if I had anything it would be a slippery slope, real fast, real hard.  2. It's an eye popping $399.99 USD.  At least in Northern New England where I am, there are some people who would say that that is HALF their monthly mortgage!  It's a lot of $$$ and just not something I was ever comfortable spending.  Now, if and when it does finally retire will I miss having had the opportunity to purchase it?  Sure.  But will I miss actually having purchased it?  No.

brickupdate

@Thanos75  @littlepuppi @cloaked7 Yes, I was being tongue-in-cheek with that post. After following this thread for hundreds of pages, I was just having a little fun. 

The Death Star retirement watch reminds me of the episode of Seinfeld where Kramer tries to see how far he can drive a car while the gas meter is on "Empty." 

doriansdad

What about 10188's update coming in 2016 - it's real and it's spectacular  ;)

bluedragon

enough to get rid of your 10188 or will we be compelled to have both??

Farmer_John

^You had to bring that up...now I have to buy a set that may not even be released.

Final_Sign

Maybe the new Death Star will be a larger sphere that fits around 10188 adding new floors and new rooms on the existing floors!  It will be totally awesome and everybody will be upset if they don't have the old death star to fit inside of the new one forcing aftermarket demand through the roof!  Stock up now!

matticus_bricks

Final_Sign said:

Maybe the new Death Star will be a larger sphere that fits around 10188 adding new floors and new rooms on the existing floors!  It will be totally awesome and everybody will be upset if they don't have the old death star to fit inside of the new one forcing aftermarket demand through the roof!  Stock up now!

And then in another 8 years they'll release yet another even larger expansion sphere and repeat the process, until it becomes like a giant Russian nesting doll Death Star?

bobabricks

matticus_bricks said:

Final_Sign said:

Maybe the new Death Star will be a larger sphere that fits around 10188 adding new floors and new rooms on the existing floors!  It will be totally awesome and everybody will be upset if they don't have the old death star to fit inside of the new one forcing aftermarket demand through the roof!  Stock up now!

And then in another 8 years they'll release yet another even larger expansion sphere and repeat the process, until it becomes like a giant Russian nesting doll Death Star?

By the year 2099 (Lego Star Wars's 100th anniversary) we will get an actual minifig scale Death Star.

matticus_bricks

^Maybe that's TLG's endgame, to continue the process until they actually create a 1:1 scale Death Star.

prevere

Next one needs to at least have toilets and a plumber. "Do you think the average storm trooper knows how to install a toilet main?"

vitreolum

bobabricks said: By the year 2099 (Lego Star Wars's 100th anniversary) we will get an actual minifig scale Death Star.

I'm having a harder time picturing the box for such a thing rather than the set. I think it'd come with a crate of kragle attached to it.

TheBigLegoski

Good new for all those who still want to postpone ordering the Death Star. I just spoke to someone from Lego [email protected] It will be available again next week. And probably will not be retired soon. So you can all keep procrastinating. Isn't that a relieve!?

prevere

So when the kids in 2050 dig up the time capsule with a 10188 in it, their hopes are immediately dashed when Brickset shows this set is still available.

VorpalRyu

^ GOLD!!!

BrickDancer

What do you guys think of Revan, now 1 year after release? At the time, most folks were saying he was too obscure and won't climb much in value.

I had one in my store since then at what I thought was an elevated price and it just sold this morning, so I checked BL and see I was the cheapest in the US. Next is at $45, which is quite shocking to me considering the feedback last year.

TheBigLegoski

^IMO it is a nice minifig.
I did not know anything about this character, or ever played the game it is from, but I like the fig, even though they could have made its printing a little brighter. $45 though is a lot of money. I assume of course that this is for a minifig in its sealed polybag. Then it fares a lot better then the Han Solo Hoth minifig polybag.
But why would someone from the USA want to buy that minifig for that much, when they can buy it for just a little under €25 from someone in South Korea or Italy on Bricklink? I don't know anything about import taxes for Americans, but if that is the only thing you buy you might not have to pay any or much, and with shipping included might still be able to get it cheaper then you would from the cheapest USA seller, or not?

BrickDancer

I usually don't have to pay any duties or import taxes when receiving packages from Europe (don't buy much from Asia). But my final sale price was $35 shipped, and the cheap one from Korea is $24 plus shipping, so might end up equal or a couple bucks cheaper than me. But I guess with less risk and quicker receiving makes up for it.

Still though, I find his price climb to be unusual compared to most others. The Shadow ARF took much longer, Shirtless Maul is not moving much, TC-14 has settled a bit higher, Chrome Stormtroopers are finally accelerating after many years, Chrome Vader is stalling at under $100, but White Boba was exploding from about a year ago onwards.

That's why Yularen is going to be interesting. Similar strict release time window of 4 days and I assume low stock similar to Revan. An obscure character, but has the benefit of being OT with CW history, although not as badass. It's not bottoming out as low as I expected either, sticking at about $20 shipped right now. If there are aggressive resellers hoarding these in bulk from the quick flippers, the bottom will start rising very quickly in my opinion.

prevere

prevere said:

Next one needs to at least have toilets and a plumber. "Do you think the average storm trooper knows how to install a toilet main?"

Forgot to include proper attribution here.

madforLEGO

'All they know is killing in white uniforms'

1stflabuyer

TheBigLegoski said:

^IMO it is a nice minifig.

But why would someone from the USA want to buy that minifig for that much, when they can buy it for just a little under €25 from someone in South Korea or Italy on Bricklink? I don't know anything about import taxes for Americans, but if that is the only thing you buy you might not have to pay any or much, and with shipping included might still be able to get it cheaper then you would from the cheapest USA seller, or not?

The seller from South Korea is charging $23.80 to ship to the USA, so almost $50! There are no import duties or taxes on toy imports at the consumer level in the USA.

TheBigLegoski

^I did not check how much the Korean would charge for shipping, but that is just plain right insane.

"There are no import duties or taxes on toy imports at the consumer level in the USA."
You lucky bastards! ..... Nice.

ps.
I remember contacting someone once on Bricklink, but it might have been E-bay either, from Germany or was it Italy?! Anyway, before buying something, I asked how much he would really charge me if I placed the order with him. After e-mailing back and forth shipping was only a fraction of what he advertised.

Farmer_John

The appreciation of Revan may be why Admiral Yularen is so darn expensive. Just glad I did a SW order to get him on the cheap!

Pitfall69

Yularen should hang around TC-14 prices. Everyone seemed to be thrilled about Revan last year compared to Yularen. I believe they probably made just as many Yularens, but he is not as popular as Revan seems to be.

BrickDancer

Didn't TC-14 came back in stock briefly later on with limited stock? It stalled for quite awhile before slowly picking up lately.

dougts

Tc 14 was available as a promo on at least three different occasions spread out over more than 6 months time. Toward the end of it's run, It also was available for outright standalone purchase at some stores. There was a ridiculously large amount if these that were made compared to more recent May 4 mini figures

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

Yularen should hang around TC-14 prices. Everyone seemed to be thrilled about Revan last year compared to Yularen. I believe they probably made just as many Yularens, but he is not as popular as Revan seems to be.

Did you mean TC-4; not TC-14? The TC-4 sets are sub-$20; the TC-14 sets are generally above $25.

I just checked and the Yularen sets are currently being bid higher or the asking price is higher on eBay and BL than I paid for an extra Revan set I bought last year, which does surprise me.

While I agree that Revan was more personally interesting, the scuttlebutt last year was less "thrilled" and more mixed based on the discussion thread (see link below). The Yularen discussion wasn't that thrilled either, yet here we are.

My thought is that people have realized that some polybag freebees do quite well and they want to cash in. Revan, Hulk, TC-14, Shadow ARF Trooper, etc. are great examples.

As a side note, there are enough promotional sets being handed out these days to merit a special grouping based on sets, minifigures, themes, sub-themes, years, and my collection. Yes, I realize searches can be done on promotional sets; however, this list is either vastly incomplete (I didn't see a single SW promotional set in the list) or I'm searching incorrectly. JMO.

http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/13455/star-wars-polybag-for-may-the-4th-2014-darth-revan/p1

Pitfall69

Things are not looking good for Alibaba:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/investing/yahoo-alibaba-marissa-mayer-jack-ma/index.html?sr=fbemoney050915mayer0630story

Your thoughts @doriansdad ?

Pitfall69

@Farmer_John , I forgot how entertaining that Revan thread was/is :)

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

Things are not looking good for Alibaba:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/investing/yahoo-alibaba-marissa-mayer-jack-ma/index.html?sr=fbemoney050915mayer0630story

Your thoughts @doriansdad ?

I'm not surprised by this. Said it when Alibaba came up many pages ago, only as strong as long as China allows for it. Now there seems to be competition (never mind this new talk of a lot of counterfeit items on Alibaba, which should not be surprising as it is China). Now they apparently are hurting, and costing a lot of money for those who got caught up in the hoopla (and did not have an insider telling them when to sell). I think those who get caught up in the next 'big thing' often lose more than they gain and you have to look no farther than many of these recent fly by night resellers for a better example.

Farmer_John

^Ha! I just perused it quickly and saw the Frozen videos...it all came back in a flash and gave me a brain freeze!

Fortuitously, my only comment in the entire thread was "pro-Revan" so I just gave myself a high-five.

Dougout

Pitfall69 said:

Things are not looking good for Alibaba:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/investing/yahoo-alibaba-marissa-mayer-jack-ma/index.html?sr=fbemoney050915mayer0630story

Your thoughts @doriansdad ?

I remember coming across Alibaba looking for a #10179 MF when it was still $1500 on eBay and there were tons of sellers with 10 they just found in a random warehouse willing to sell them all for just $5000.  I never had high hopes for the company.

hoyatables

Yularen has an OT connection.  Even TC-14 was at least in the PT.  They will always be more appealing than an EU character.  

prevere

As for the Marvel promos, June is set for U.S., right? I believe it's spend $75 (on anything) and get a Winter Soldier fig.

Pitfall69

I think I have reached a new Lego low. I have just purchased a set that is the same size as a set I am selling; just so I can have a shipping box :0

madforLEGO

prevere said:

As for the Marvel promos, June is set for U.S., right? I believe it's spend $75 (on anything) and get a Winter Soldier fig.

I think this will help keep prices down a bit on Winter Soldier.
I think Yularen is going up because I do not see many people wanting to buy, what are many, overpriced SW sets through LEGO, and you had to buy only $75 USD SW in order to get him.
With any purchase of 75 or over netting you a Winter soldier I can see many LEGO sets I would rather buy that get me him without having to over pay for Marvel sets.

prevere

I hope they made a lot of Bucky. Orders are going to start flying fast and furious to use him as a discount.

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

Things are not looking good for Alibaba:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/investing/yahoo-alibaba-marissa-mayer-jack-ma/index.html?sr=fbemoney050915mayer0630story

Your thoughts @doriansdad ?

I think there is going to be alot of competition for the Chinese market. If someone can figure out a platform to allow US sellers to market to chinese end consumers they are going to make a killing. I noticed Bezos is moving to make it easy for US sellers to list on the canadian site. Test run for China? If they can figure out a way to get my merchandise from their US warehouses economically to china warehouses for distribution in the next 5-10 years then we can all make ALOT of $$$. 

Milne44

10188# Death Stars back in UK at [email protected]  , OFS tell 22nd of June tho

david325

Phew! Was panicking I'd missed out on it then. But won't place an order just yet...I'll wait until it's actually gone then start complaining....

Pitfall69

Just some random thoughts about the next Millennium Falcon...

I have heard that the next Millennium Falcon will be from The Force Awakens and have the new radar dish. I have also heard that it will come with lights and possibly sound. There was no mention on what minifigures will come with the MF, but I imagine that it will at least contain Han and Chewbacca as well as the two characters pictured on the Vanity Fair cover. Has anyone else heard anything about the new Millennium Falcon?

The "street date" for Hasbro's toys for The Force Awakens is September 4th. I wonder when we will see the first wave of Lego sets?

Shib

I'm interested to see how LEGO approach BB-8. I can also imagine the first wave of Force Awakens sets being swept up quick, the excitement for the film is palpable on the nerdsphere - I think a lot of people will be buying masses of the merch before they see the film.

dougts

That would be Finn and Rey you are talking about. This MF you speak of sounds awesome as does the bigger DS we keep hearing about. I'm cautiously optimistic

pharmjod

is the talk about a bigger death star serious? I assumed people were just jerking everyone's chains.

Pitfall69

With that said, I don't think we will be seeing another OT Millennium Falcon for a very long time. I also think that we won't see a UCS OT Millennium Falcon. Lego is going to want to push sets for the new Star Wars movies and Star Wars Anthology Series movies. I doubt we will be seeing much OT and Prequel Lego sets in the future, which may bode well for resellers.