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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited April 2015
    No idea how many of those american classics were made, or perhaps more importantly were sold outside the US?

    For example about 5.3 million minis were made (over a number of years, but all largely the same and recognisably a mini) of which 3.7 million were sold outside the UK. No where near the numbers of the beetle, but still pretty big. Of course, numbers aren't everything or we'll be building toyota corollas, ladas and ford pick ups.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I think we (the US) knew that already.  What really started this spur was the observation that Creator/Expert Lego has had good representation of European mechanical coolness (vehicles, trains, boats), but not so much when it comes to US mechanical coolness.
    VorpalRyu
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    No Australian cars either, my vote is for the Ford Falcon XY GTHO Phase III... :wink: 
    Amanda1983xiahna
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited April 2015
    Really? Ok, for cars you're right we've had a beetle, camper van and now mini - i'll give you although all of them became international cars with, for example the beetle and camper van having significant production in South America for example. Also whilst being built for decades they maintained their character and continued to look the same throughout (perhaps less so for the VW camper).

    But looking at the other transport you mention. For trains, of the three expert trains (that I can think of) we had a European steam, a US cargo and then a European high speed passenger. Lets not forget that before that we had the Santa Fe and if we're keeping the beetle the santa fe has to be included. So american representation of trains, in a country not known for its train transport, has been very good.

    As for ships, they seem quite niche with just the Maersk ships, and really, are they that different? 

    Perhaps the next car should be a Shelby AC Cobra as most Americans would probably think of that as an american car.  ;)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Yeah, the train argument could be iffy if you focused only on them.  There also was the BNSF engine.  I guess the line gets a little fuzzy there also because were those play trains or models?  Are the City trains models or City?  Are the Creator/Expert trains models or City playthings?  Should we take every engine City/Creator/Expert/MyTrain ever and compare those?  I dunno.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,294
    Well the next expert car is Italian and it is hard to argue against that no matter who you are. Also, somebody leak an image already!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    If I could leak an image, I would be in a science lab already ;)

    Hard to argue most Italian cars. I assume it is a Ferrari...again.

    My credit card just got charged for the Pet Shop I ordered back during Double VIP points.
    VorpalRyu
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    We need a fast and the furious line, that would open up a whole world of new cars
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2015
    The only thing I knew about the Mini is that in high school they were easy for a group of guys to pick up and move into a position that baffled the owner...and I would never purchase one for that reason alone. :#
    VorpalRyucheshirecatrichlGothamConstructionCo
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^We did that with a Honda CRX one time while in college :)
    VorpalRyu
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    This is starting sound like the making of a Mexican stand -off ....or should I say euromerican standoff ;)
    VorpalRyudougts
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited April 2015
    @Farmer_John we did exactly that with one of our teachers minis, wedged lengthways right between two trees.
    Farmer_John
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2015
    ^Exactly! Those poor, poor teachers bore the brunt of our sadistic mix of boredom and curiosity. :wink:

    I still remember putting a live chicken in the false ceiling. Every time they tried to get it down, it would run to another part of the building making a ruckus. They were able to get it eventually...but not before we students were thoroughly entertained. I still remember like it was yesterday the clucking coming from up on high during our government class...
    BumblepantsGothamConstructionCo
  • mr.pigglesmr.piggles Snow FortMember Posts: 326
    ... being a teacher who works at a school for particularly violent and angry youth, I should probably start parking my Mini up the street... :neutral: :tongue: 
    VorpalRyuFarmer_John
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,111
    Pitfall69 said:
    If I could leak an image, I would be in a science lab already ;)

    Hard to argue most Italian cars. I assume it is a Ferrari...again.

    My credit card just got charged for the Pet Shop I ordered back during Double VIP points.

    Mine too - my order also shows as "In Warehouse" - I assume this means we are getting ready for take off.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    edited April 2015
    Chubbles said:
    We need a fast and the furious line, that would open up a whole world of new cars
    Tell us the truth, you just want a Vin Diesel minifig?

    The Mini-Cooper didn't really become popular in the US until "The Italian Job" was released in 2003.
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 132
    That was a bad remake!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited April 2015
    My Pet Shop is shipped. I am really intrigued about this set. It was mentioned earlier that the box may be similar to the Parisian Restaurant and Detective's Office. This wouldn't surprise me at all. I bought 2 #4432 's and both sets have different sized boxes. One was taller and not as thick as the other. I may have thrown one of the boxes away. I'm also interested to see if all the minifigures have the new recessed heads and new legs or a combination of both. This would really blow my mind. It will be like "Classic Pirates" all over again ;)
    juggles7
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,294
    ^It is possible the parts will be new molds. My FB was near EOL and had the new tool packet with the tire iron rather than the old 6 piece set that was printed in the instructions.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Is anyone opening their Pet Shops when they arrive or is everyone keeping them as an investment?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall please post here when your Pet Shop arrives. Curious about the box size and the color of the base plates. Did not know they were making new heads and legs. All I have are PS from Target earlier this year and obviously they are all old school.
    Pitfall69
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    If the new batch of Pet Shops show up with a new, smaller box, that to me is possibly a good indicator that it will stick around longer than we think. 
    juggles7
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,111
    The VIP points already posted to my account as well as a result of my PS's shipping today. I'll admit I quickly used them on a Kwik-E-Mart..
    Pitfall69Mordoor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^You blew your VIP points load too quick. Premature Lepurculaion.
    Bumblepants
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 950
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^You blew your VIP points load too quick. Premature Lepurculaion.
    Let me guess....mixing your two favorite sites..... brickset and prickset.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Chubbles said:
    We need a fast and the furious line, that would open up a whole world of new cars
    Tell us the truth, you just want a Vin Diesel minifig?

    The Mini-Cooper didn't really become popular in the US until "The Italian Job" was released in 2003.
    Just put Groot in a Lego built Mazda RX-7 or Plymouth Barracuda; )
    Amanda1983
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    1265 said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^You blew your VIP points load too quick. Premature Lepurculaion.
    Let me guess....mixing your two favorite sites..... brickset and prickset.

    Well, this is often called The Pre-dic-tion Thread ;)
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 950
    Pitfall69 said:
    1265 said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^You blew your VIP points load too quick. Premature Lepurculaion.
    Let me guess....mixing your two favorite sites..... brickset and prickset.

    Well, this is often called The Pre-dic-tion Thread ;)
    Touche..... :*
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,111
    ^ through ^^^^^

    It's not my fault I wanted a Kwickie.

    :smile:
    Pitfall69bobabricksMordoor
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited April 2015
    Ahhh... the tangents this thread has taken.  The comments.  The humor.  No wonder it is 500+ pages long.  :-)  It's like a forum inside a forum.
    VorpalRyuAmanda1983
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited April 2015
    ;) Did somebody say "forum"? Ya'll remember what that used to mean before the internet?
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    What's wrong with a VinDiesel fig?
    I would love an (impossible to expect) Riddick set
    Those movies are God-awful cheesy and derivative but for some reason I love them

    And PS- I just heard on the radio while I was typing this that the new Fast and Furious movie is the quickest movie to make a billion dollars worldwide. If that isn't a case for the market viability of a few Lego cars I don't know what is
    Speed Champions Street if you will
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    Can I get a '69 Cuda attached to a Friends hot air balloon?
    snowhitie
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    I received 2 pet shops in early March, both boxes were the same size...22-3/4" x 18-3/4" x 3-1/2" (OD)...what is the box size people are now saying they are receiving?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    SumoLego said:
    Can I get a '69 Cuda attached to a Friends hot air balloon?

    Maybe I'll build a Friends Hot Air Balloon set and tie a bunch of helium balloons to it and videotape the launch. Of course, it'll eventually fall and kill someone. The forensic evidence will lead them back to me, starting a media firestorm about the dangers of LEGO, and ending with my incarceration. So on second thought, maybe I won't do that.
    matticus_bricks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ryjay said:
    I received 2 pet shops in early March, both boxes were the same size...22-3/4" x 18-3/4" x 3-1/2" (OD)...what is the box size people are now saying they are receiving?
    Nobody has said that they are receiving different sized boxes. We were wondering if the latest batch being shipped out right now will have the new 58 x 37.5 x 10 cm box that the latest Modular sets have. Nobody, as far as I know, has confirmed this information. 
    cheshirecat
  • 77ncaachamps77ncaachamps Aspiring Time Traveler Stuck in the West (US)Member Posts: 2,442
    ^ "The Mini Cooper is not iconic" Clearly you've not seen The (original) Italian Job.
    You're right. I haven't!
    But I should have known better before posting that comment as I was referring to the new Mini Cooper! LOL
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    Can I get a '69 Cuda attached to a Friends hot air balloon?

    Maybe I'll build a Friends Hot Air Balloon set and tie a bunch of helium balloons to it and videotape the launch. Of course, it'll eventually fall and kill someone. The forensic evidence will lead them back to me, starting a media firestorm about the dangers of LEGO, and ending with my incarceration. So on second thought, maybe I won't do that.
    I read "incarceration" as "incineration" and I thought, man, that escalated quickly. 
    prevereAmanda1983
  • fixitbobbyfixitbobby Member Posts: 17
    Pitfall69 said:
    My Pet Shop is shipped.
    My Pet Shop and Palace cinema ordered on 3-31 have shipped also.  Will report box sizes when I get them.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Now that I've seen the Ferris Wheel, I really want to get the Mixer. But boy, FW will be expensive, and with Mixer a hefty $150, that makes it tough. $150 for a non-USC SW or Modular is hard to swallow for me.
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    edited April 2015
    I like the Ferris Wheel

    And besides, from a resell standpoint it's hitting a few key points...

    1) Seems to be in a theme series that may eventually be sought after by completionists when it goes out of production

    2) Seems to have a mixed reaction from roughly half of the people that comment on it- this means that perhaps people won't buy it until it's too late (think Town Hall)


    This may not be a modular building but I think it's going to hit a lot of the same chords.

    What does the Ferris Wheel do to the "value" of the Mixer now that it's sort of a series? (though really you need at least 3 to make it that I would think)
    Farmer_John
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Grand Carousel, Mixer, and Ferris Wheel. There is your set of three. Completionists will want them all. I guess The MIxer is the Market Street of the bunch so far.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    The mixer is a real mystery to me. Personally, if I can't get 2.5x over retail in 24 months after retirement, I'm not interested. That puts the Mixer at $375, and I just don't see it.
    Pitfall69juggles7
  • gunther.schnitzelgunther.schnitzel Member Posts: 92
    Pitfall69 said:
    Is anyone opening their Pet Shops when they arrive or is everyone keeping them as an investment?

    I got 2 Pet Shops a few weeks ago in a Smyths, opened one, keeping the other.

    For anyone in Ireland, they had more in stock and had some available online also.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    prevere said:
    The mixer is a real mystery to me. Personally, if I can't get 2.5x over retail in 24 months after retirement, I'm not interested. That puts the Mixer at $375, and I just don't see it.
    Maybe, but the mixer is a pure discount-embargo exclusive.  We really don't have much precedent to go on for these things yet.  That said, I think that target is completely reasonable now that the theme is officially continuing.
    madforLEGO
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    Whould the carosel be considered "part" of the theme though? I have to say I kinda hate that kind of question but it is a good 5-6 years between releases. And really I suppose it's relative to the personal taste of the buyer/collector.

    I just bought the Mixer on Amazon and it suggested the carosel. $2200 I believe.
    Damn!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Just like with the winter vilalge sets and the modulars, there is no official line-label linking these fairground sets.  Granted there is the time lag you mentioned, but the carousel would fit in great next to either of these sets, so yeah, I count it.
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    I would too but that's far too rich for my blood so here's hoping to a remake.

    By the way, nice passive aggressive spell check. It never was my best subject in school.
    Ha!
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    prevere said: Personally, if I can't get 2.5x over retail in 24 months after retirement, I'm not interested.
       Not being funny but probably 20 x more people will be buying the same items as they were in the past, and in much larger quantities. Just my opinion, but I don't see many sets going 2.5 x RRP in the next 3 years from now.
    FollowsCloselypreverejuggles7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667

    Solarious said:
    Whould the carosel be considered "part" of the theme though? I have to say I kinda hate that kind of question but it is a good 5-6 years between releases. And really I suppose it's relative to the personal taste of the buyer/collector.

    I just bought the Mixer on Amazon and it suggested the carosel. $2200 I believe.
    Damn!
    It is one of the reasons why I will not sell my MISB #10196 at this moment.
    I'm not too big on it, but darned if I sell it then decide I want it later.
    I think fairground Mixer will rise. Then again #10235 seems to be stuck under MSRP on eBay right now, which may not bode well for the Mixer when it EOL's (which I'm guessing will be this fall/winter).
    TheLoneTensor
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