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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    Re the zombie, he hasn't gone up much in three years. He was always pretty expensive. He was like the Spartan, highly sought after from day 1. Compare the elf and gorilla guy, elf was expensive from release. Whereas gorilla was relatively easy to get hold of. Lizard man was not that sought after at the time, and rabbit was relatively cheap too when current. The demand for zombie was there early on, the animal suits seem to have shot up more recently. I guess when people realise they form a nice little subset and so collect them.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Is there a collectible subset of the crap CMF's ;)
    Vortexbobabricks
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    Yeah, its called the baseball players.

    PS, as brickset is a British run site, collectable is the correct spelling.
    BACbrix
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    edited March 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    Is there a collectible subset of the crap CMF's
    Please add the soccer player and race car driver to the list.
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    In fact most of the sports ones are a bit naff, none of the ball sports ones even have a ball.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    What's everyone's favorite CMF? Mine obviously is the Pirate Captain.
    BACbrixMordoor
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    CMFS are not crap! @Pitfall69 Maybe you were being sarcastic or it is an inside joke but if that is really how you feel then I have about 225 collectable friends who are going to have a problem...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    The costume figures are my faves. I've been compulsively buying hotdog Guys and unicorns every time I find them. I need to start selling the bumblebees I have
    TheLoneTensor
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    Is there a collectible subset of the crap CMF's
    As @CCC eluded to, you really never know which set is going to do well and which one isn't. I had several Series 2 #8684-12 Skier sets that I basically opened to use with my WV-themed sets because they were so prevalent. Low and behold, I checked them and they are now $10-15 USD with an original RRP of $1.99.

    Conversely, I would have thought the Series 3 and Series 10 Baseball Players would do well because of people wanting to field complete teams. Now if TLG released a Baseball Field set, then I would expect the prices on those to rise accordingly. The Series 4 Hockey Player and Series 2 Weightlifter have also basically bombed. However, the Olympic Team GB minifigs are among the best performers...especially if they're still sealed.

    It is also interesting to note that sealed sets do seem to command a higher premium than those that have been slit open to validate their contents, both on eBay and BL. It's kind of a "darned if you do, darned if you don't" situation regarding opening bags to check the contents. While you can be confident of what you are sending the buyer, you also reduce the value of the set in the process.

    I am very confident in my ability to validate the contents of a CMF set by feel, but I have also received sealed sets from sellers (twice) who said the same thing and were wrong. In these cases, buying a sealed CMF set becomes a bit more stressful because the seller tends to think I'm trying to gouge them (which I would never do), but I want to get what I ordered and paid for. The first time I just dropped the matter and found another seller for the CMF I needed; the second time I was able to amicably resolve the issue. But I can see where selling sealed CMF sets can more easily open the door to fraud against the seller if the buyer is unethical. Perhaps that's true of any transaction though...
    Zon
  • ZathrasZathras Member Posts: 70
    No question it's the Hazmat guy from series 4, makes a sweet Gordon Freeman.
    goshe7exciter1
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    pharmjod said:
    The costume figures are my faves. I've been compulsively buying hotdog Guys and unicorns every time I find them. I need to start selling the bumblebees I have
    Your compulsion will serve you very well.  It's anecdotal yes, but I've never seen kids (and adults) so instantly ID the one fig they want as this.  I.e. they see the display, see the different characters and say "I want the hot dog guy!"  I don't remember a CMF so coveted while it was still widely available.
    pharmjod
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015

    It is also interesting to note that sealed sets do seem to command a higher premium than those that have been slit open to validate their contents
    Very true.  Using the feeling method (without mangling the packs) is definitely worthwhile for squeezing more $ out of CMFs, both individually or in a set.  That is assuming you don't have easy access to an x-ray machine.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    pharmjod said:
    The costume figures are my faves. I've been compulsively buying hotdog Guys and unicorns every time I find them. I need to start selling the bumblebees I have
    Your compulsion will serve you very well.  It's anecdotal yes, but I've never seen kids (and adults) so instantly ID the one fig they want as this.  I.e. they see the display, see the different characters and say "I want the hot dog guy!"  I don't remember a CMF so coveted while it was still widely available.
    I think they also are hard to find. That is: Not hard to feel for, but hard to find them available at a store because there are typically three in a standard box of 60 so if someone needs to complete a set they are easily finding that one to complete a set. They really are the easiest figure I have had to find in a pack: 'feel for the giant hot dog in the bag'. I think they should have made those common, or uncommon, since they are so easy to find, but just my opinion.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I agree on how easy the Hotdog Guy is to feel for, when I see a box of series 13 CMF's I'll go through it to look for HDG and the Unicorn. Depending on time I'll sometimes just look for HDG as I can feel a whole box in a matter of minutes if I'm just looking for him.
    madforLEGOTheLoneTensorpharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    BACbrix said:
    CMFS are not crap! @Pitfall69 Maybe you were being sarcastic or it is an inside joke but if that is really how you feel then I have about 225 collectable friends who are going to have a problem...
    I didn't say CMF's are crap, I was being funny by asking if there was of subset of the crap minifigures ;) Yes, somewhat of an inside joke...@CCC , how is the aerobics instructor doing these days ;)
    pharmjodBACbrixlego007bobabricksluckyrussGothamConstructionCo
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I was at a TRU and there were 6 new cases of series 13. The hot dog guys were even in the same place for 4 of the cases which made it even easier.
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Interestingly, I found both the Hot Dog Guy and the Unicorn on two separate visits to Target sitting by themselves on a shelf just above the display box. There were almost no CMFs left in the display box, so I was surprised that these two would be available. In both instances, it appeared that someone had been going through them, set them aside, and never came back. Kind of odd really.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    @Pitfall69 my aerobics women are still in pieces. One thing positive ... She had nice hair.
    BACbrixPitfall69bobabricksluckyruss
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    What's everyone's favorite CMF? Mine obviously is the Pirate Captain.
    I like the Forest Maiden, from series 9. 
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    I really like the Robot from Series 1. Looks just like the one from the ridiculous Bela Lugosi film 'The Phantom Creeps'
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,313
    ^ Speaking of Bela Lugosi, the Vampire would have be one of my favourite spooky CMF (wish they did the spookies as glow in the dark). As for my favourite overall......hmmm......probably Alien Avenger (love the copper-tone printing).
    xiahna
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    My favorite CMF is the one that provides the greatest return. :smiley: 
    Pitfall69VorpalRyubobabricksZon
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    What's everyone's favorite CMF? Mine obviously is the Pirate Captain.
    Zombie, followed closely by the Hazmat guy
    VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    VorpalRyu said:
    ^ Speaking of Bela Lugosi, the Vampire would have be one of my favourite spooky CMF (wish they did the spookies as glow in the dark).
    They did some GITD heads for the Monster Fighters theme, for Lord and Lady Vampyre.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    edited March 2015

    To my knowledge (based on a couple of dozen sealed cases across different series and attacking opened cases in the stores) every pack is packed in the case in the same location. Once you've worked out the case allocation you shouldn't need to actually feel the individual packs.  In open cases where this hasn't been the case, I've generally found the pack count of the commons to be considerably higher which leads me to believe its just a case of multiple half empty cases being shoehorned into a single case to allow for whole fresh cases to be placed on the shelf...In case I'm wrong, please correct me if this is NOT the case... (OK - that last one might have been one case too many!)


  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    From my experience not every case is packed the same as far as locaton of figs in the box. I suspect it's related to production runs. It is worth paying attention if you have multiple fresh cases to check.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^ That's interesting. I'm in Australia - I've often suspected that we receive a single allocation (albeit huge) of CMF's. It seems like once a series disappears from the more popular locations (including the big retailers) they simply don't appear again until a new series is released. We also only get 60 pack cases.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    Occasionally we get REAL lucky and case of series 4 or 5 just seems to show up out of nowhere. Hate to admit it, but the hoarder in me snaffles the whole thing up (including the 'empty' case) as soon as I see them!
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    What's everyone's favorite CMF? Mine obviously is the Pirate Captain.
    Egyptian Queen. Although I don't collect CMFs, I'm seriously considering getting several Egyptian Warriors to go with her and the Pharaoh.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    edited March 2015
    Anyone have a good feel for what the Admiral Yuralen poly will be worth? I am not that familiar with this character so not sure if he has much of a following or not. I know he isn't chrome so that is strike one, but surely he will be a better draw than Hoth Han right?
    BACbrix
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    He appeared very briefly in A New Hope in the scene where Vader force chokes Tarkin. Not sure if he was expanded on in all the books that have been written.

    As for value, he is such a minor character that he may as well just be another old man figure. His value may come in the fact that he will only be available for 2-3 days (I think).
    Pitfall69
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Hmmm...looks like he is also featured in the Clone Wars animated show. Not
    sure if that adds any value.
    Pitfall69BACbrix
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    Anyone have a good feel for what the Admiral Yuralen poly will be worth? I am not that familiar with this character so not sure if he has much of a following or not.
    Admiral Yularen is slightly better known :-) But yeah, he will look like just another officer, with a slightly older looking face.

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Sorry, meant to say the scene where Vader is force choking Motti. Been awhile since I've seen the movie.
    madforLEGO
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    CCC said:
    Anyone have a good feel for what the Admiral Yuralen poly will be worth? I am not that familiar with this character so not sure if he has much of a following or not.
    Admiral Yularen is slightly better known :-) But yeah, he will look like just another officer, with a slightly older looking face.

    I hadn't had my coffee yet when I was trying to type his name.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Well I missed out on Revan last year, so I don't know if I should go for Yularen. $75 worth of SW LEGO plus a "free" figure, or buy the figure by itself for about $22 on bricklink...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^You aren't going to find Darth Revan shipped to your doorstep in the US for less than $30 @Sethro3.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Since Yularen is in the OT, I would think that the Old School Star Wars fan boys would have to have him. I definitely want him ;) With Yularen, you can now recreate the Death Star briefing from A New Hope.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I remember all the speculation surrounding Darth Revan. At $30 a pop, it appears that he's alive and well.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    Well, let's be honest, at least Revan had a cool factor.  All things being equal, I don't find Yularen* to be as cool looking on his own.

    * Yeah, I had no idea who he was either.  Wookiepedia is probably getting some traffic spikes today.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    The only reason I know who he is, is because he had a character card in the old Star Wars ccg by Decipher :)
    malleableweevinPitfall69khmellymelbobabricksjhuntin1
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    hey, can we take all this minifigure talk to the appropriate thread:
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/8857/minifigures-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest

    so those of us who don't care about collecting and selling silly accessories can focus on SETS please..

    ;-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    So Judging by the price of a nisb #10224 Town Hall what are people forecasting for the price of that one by Christmas?
    I'm guessing about 650-750 USD

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,995
    edited March 2015
    ^^ if he is in a bag, he is a set.
    pharmjodFarmer_JohnBACbrixZon
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    So Judging by the price of a nisb #10224 Town Hall what are people forecasting for the price of that one by Christmas?
    I'm guessing about 650-750 USD

    if true, that's a phenomenal gain in such a short time for a set that was initially released well after the "boom" was in full swing
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    CCC said:
    ^^ if he is in a bag, he is a set.
    grr.  quit standing on silly technicalities and just do want I want dammit!!!!  I've lived through all 492 pages of this thread (for a laugh, read my first post at the top of page 1) and enjoyed them all until I come across this two pages of minifigure discussion.  talk about spoiling a good thing.  perhaps the mods would be so kind as to relocate that drivel to it's more proper home in that other thread which I shall never taint my eyes by clicking on...


  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    While I don't have the apparent sickening feeling that @dougts does, it really does belongs in the minifg discussion thread.  The presence of a bag doesn't change this.

    As for the TH, I don't see it getting to those levels, but there have been stranger things, so I'll not be betting against it doing so.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    edited March 2015
    While I don't have the apparent sickening feeling that @dougts does, it really does belongs in the minifg discussion thread.  The presence of a bag doesn't change this.

    As for the TH, I don't see it getting to those levels, but there have been stranger things, so I'll not be betting against it doing so.
    Well I (and Im guessing others) did not think it would be at about 500 USD now (at least sold for on eBay), but it is. Pretty meteoric and shows how much something can go for after EOL when resellers do not have their stocks in something.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Personally, I don't have a problem discussing CMFs here because they are by definition (per Lego, Brickset, and BrickLink) a set. I think aftermarket values of minifigures were also discussed in this thread long before the other thread was started. I know...probably small potatoes though.

    The only reason I posted this was as an excuse to say that I just noticed the Series 13 CMFs are officially sold out at [email protected] They seem to be short-lived, so I expect they're do okay in the aftermarket. Order now before they go from inflated to over-inflated prices.
    BACbrixpharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    dougts said:
    So Judging by the price of a nisb #10224 Town Hall what are people forecasting for the price of that one by Christmas?
    I'm guessing about 650-750 USD

    if true, that's a phenomenal gain in such a short time for a set that was initially released well after the "boom" was in full swing
    I wouldn't be too surprised to see it touch the $600 mark by the end of 2015. When I did my rough evaluation of the TH awhile back in this thread, I estimated its price at the time (based on availability) should be approximately $678 as compared to the prices and availabilities of the other discontinued modular sets. That was with 99 MISB TH sets availabile on BrickLink in the U.S.. Not sure how many are available now, but I would guess there are less.
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