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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    Is anyone else having their comments put on hold to be reviewed by a moderator? I don't think I've said anything intentionally insulting to anyone on this website over the past four years (this is the point where my friend @cheshirecat posts something that I've said that was intentionally insulting to someone :wink: ). If this "hold for moderator approval" stuff continues, I might start taking it personally and cut my losses. :frowning:  Very annoying!
    BACbrix
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    ryjay said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I know we talk about Modulars a lot on Brickset, they are very popular. The Architecture Series is neat, but not for me. Now, if they came out with an Architecture Series for Sports, I would be interested. Maybe strike a deal with MLB and have a set for every Baseball Stadium. They can do other stadiums as well like Wembley.


    Baseball stadiums, now I'd be all over that....even if they just did the facades of some of the icon stadiums.
    Baseball!Nah! We need a set of St.Andrews, Home to Birmingham City FC.Thats what we need. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,783

    mathew said:
    I think the architecture series is just awful. 

    They're too small, so they mock what they're trying to model.

    They have no color. And worse, they are white, so they'll just yellow over time if you display them.

    They're easy to bricklink, but I can't imagine who would want to go to such trouble for such shitty sets. 

    I think lego did good with the tower bridge and large sydney opera house sets. The SOH architecture series set compared to the large SOH set personifies my opinion of the whole architecture line.

    Well that's your opinion.  You also probably still play with GI Joes.
    Interesting. Criticize someone complaining about LEGO by trying to insult them by saying they play with another toy....

    I do not not agree with the comments from this guy, but replying to absurd opinions with an absurd comment is not very helpful.
    TheLoneTensormatticus_bricksAanchirShibdougts
  • sdetskysdetsky Member Posts: 35
    ^ - about 2-3 pages

    Someone mentioned "substantialness" of a set and I do think that has role in both Lego's popularity as a whole and on a large number of sets which are discussed by resellers.  One thing that I hear often at retail stores with displayed models (mostly Lego stores) or when parents discuss gifts their children received is how much larger the Lego sets are then what was expected based on the box.  The Death Star is one of the most "substantial" showpieces that can be displayed, which may explain its longevity.

    Obviously, part count has a significant factor on set "substantialness" since it is unlikely a 100 part set can appear more substantial than a 500 part set, but how those parts are used (and how many are small parts vs. large parts) plays a role.  Most modulars, UCS Falcon, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal are some examples of sets which have the most "substantialness" and also seen the highest increases in value, which I don't think is coincidental.  I am not discounting other factors such as availability, initial price point, iconicness and unique parts/colours, but I think "substantialness" does play a predictive role (since, of course, this whole thread is about making predictions).

    On a recent trip to a local Lego store which has many sets on display, I experienced several "wow, that is impressive" to "wow, that looks tiny" moments such as:

    1) Avengers Helicarrier is very unsubstantial for its part count.
    2) UCS Slave 1, which was displayed right next to the Helicarrier and is exactly 1000 parts less, looked way more substantial.
    3) Metalbeard's Sea Cow seemed unsubstantial while the new Brick Bounty did seem substantial (I think the sails make all the difference).
    4) The Parisian Restaurant appears tiny when compared to the Simpsons house.

    Maybe I'm just rambling, but if I were looking to invest, I would take this into account.
    dougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...I checked out the Helicarrier this weekend after @Cheshirecat said essentially the same thing you did. It is a bit smaller than I thought it would be and looks like it should have been priced about $100 less than it was.

    I did think the Sea Cow looked reasonably sized, albeit kind of jumbled (which I guess is the point).

    I don't recall seeing a Simpson's House to compare with the modulars, so no comments there.

    Two sets that really impress me every time I see them on display at our local store are: 1) The Tumbler #76023, and 2) The Technic Cargo Plane #42025. I am always impressed with the size of the Tumbler, which was proudly on display. I have one to build, but just haven't had the opportunity. It's definitely a project I will do with my kids though. As for the Cargo Plane, it just looks like an awesome build and is huge for the price point. I'm really looking forward to building both!
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    The Helicarrier is not that impressive in person especially at $350.  It would be cool as a Hasbro "big molded plastic playset" ala the USS Flagg.  I also have not been impressed with the Parisian Restaurant in person.  It's one of those rare Lego sets that looks better in pictures.  I do think the Sea Cow looks pretty cool and the UCS Slave 1 impresses.  Sandcrawler for some reason tempts me when I see it live even if it's just a big brown shell of plates and technic.  
    pharmjod
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    I'll add that I saw the Helicarrier in person and it significantly affected my decision whether or not to get one down the road. It's much smaller than expected, the color scheme is a bit jarring, the Microfigs are miniscule and the use of stickers is noticeable and unprofessional. I was much more impressed with the UCS Slave I and I'm not even a SW fan.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    I just saw the Imperial Hotel at my local Lego Store and was extremely underwhelmed. When I saw it on Amazon, I was thinking, wow cool. Finally an architecture set that's over 1000 pieces! When I saw it in the display stand, I did a double take and had to make sure that what I was seeing was indeed the completed model. 

    As for the Helicarrier, I agree that it's kind of lame seeing it in person. It's not nearly as cool as say, the Sandcrawler or Tumbler.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,656
    I saw most of those mentioned above yesterday and the ones that stood are the Tumbler and Sandcrawler. The modulars look great but look so tiny compared with the others. The Helicarrier looks too tiny compared to the price. I feel it should be between £150-£200, plus it doesn't stand out as a model. The Simpsons house looks too simple but that's how it is based on the TV show.
    TXLegoguy
  • DedgeckoDedgecko Seattle, WAMember Posts: 800
    So the new Pirate Chess set has been pulled from [email protected] per a defect rumor from http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=91306&st=1375#entry2174169

    Does that mean the ones currently on shelves in the store will gain a significant collectibility value? I picked one up this past weekend but I haven't cracked the seals yet.

    Build or save it?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I don't think so. If the one of the minifigures came with weird printing or something, maybe, but this is just a simple error. No big deal.
    VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    It's ridiculous if they have pulled it for that, especially for six months.

    Why not just issue a correction online?
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,331
    edited March 2015
    ^I'd say because Lego tend to try to put out a high quality product (I know the irony of that comment amid all the chinese factory minifigure complaints) so they'd rather take it off the shelves for six months and get them repackaged with the fix than have six months of complaints while they wait for the new stock to filter in - all the while having to send out new instructions to those who do complain.

    given the range at the minute I'd say they've no shortage of other stuff to fill the shelves, and the chess sets are a bit of a Lego niche product.
    BACbrix
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    (Mobile phone won't let me quote) ^ I agree. One mass correction is wayyyy more efficient as opposed to filling out individual requests as they are created. Lego factories are already at the pinnacle of their production capacity with the new summer and earlier winter sets.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    Shib said:
    ^I'd say because Lego tend to try to put out a high quality product (I know the irony of that comment amid all the chinese factory minifigure complaints) so they'd rather take it off the shelves for six months and get them repackaged with the fix than have six months of complaints while they wait for the new stock to filter in - all the while having to send out new instructions to those who do complain.

    given the range at the minute I'd say they've no shortage of other stuff to fill the shelves, and the chess sets are a bit of a Lego niche product.
    Have you seen what the problem is though? It seems to be a simple switch of black squares and white squares on one side of the board.

    So in the set, the corner by the tree is white.




    whereas in the instructions it is black.




    It's easy to spot once built, and easy to change. As you build each quarter on a 16x16 plate, you pick it up and rotate it.


  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Seems like it would have been easier to add a one page correction sheet and announce it to people who bought one and hand it out to new purchases
  • DedgeckoDedgecko Seattle, WAMember Posts: 800
    Has TLG ever printed a correction sheet? I think that screams poor quality more so than cheese wedges cracking within a week of assembly, and Chinese minifigs that have zero clutch.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    Especially when you consider it is a chess set. If the person building it cannot work out what is wrong, then they are not going to get much out of trying to play chess. Especially if they try to follow the lego pictorial instructions for playing chess.
    pharmjodFarmer_John
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,874
    Dedgecko said:
    Has TLG ever printed a correction sheet? I think that screams poor quality more so than cheese wedges cracking within a week of assembly, and Chinese minifigs that have zero clutch.
    LEGO has printed correction sheets in the past, yes, but usually they still try to include said correction sheet in all copies of the set on store shelves, rather than simply putting it online or sending it to people by request.

    I agree that this is an easy problem for buyers to fix on their own, but at the same time if you don't notice the issue until you've built the model, having to pull up all the incorrect tiles and replace them could be really frustrating. And to make this kind of mistake on something like a chess set where the arrangement of the colored tiles is so important makes LEGO look unprofessional.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    Aanchir said:

    I agree that this is an easy problem for buyers to fix on their own, but at the same time if you don't notice the issue until you've built the model, having to pull up all the incorrect tiles and replace them could be really frustrating.
    You don't need to go that far ...

    As they are on a plate, you can just rotate the plate.

    The only problem then is that the lines on the tiled surfaces will be perpendicular on the two sides of the board.
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    Maybe Lego is embarrassed their chess board is set up wrong on all pictures! 

    White should be in the right hand corner for each player.  White queen should be on white square, black queen should be on black square.  I noticed it when I first saw the box but bought it anyways!  Its easy enough to rotate the 4 main board sections and set it up properly.  Or maybe they play chess differently over there in Legoland.

    If you want to get picky about it, that "error" in the instructions is the only correct part.
    CCCFollowsCloselytwoninerkenGuroooSethro3ReesesPiecesdougtsCapnRex101
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    ^ Nice!
  • twoninerkentwoninerken Member Posts: 48
    White should be in the right hand corner for each player.  White queen should be on white square, black queen should be on black square.  I noticed it when I first saw the box but bought it anyways!  Its easy enough to rotate the 4 main board sections and set it up properly.  
    Exactly, I think this is it. The white square should always be in the bottom right hand corner with the queen on her color. The pictures are wrong. My guess is this gets corrected both the pictures on the box and the instructions.
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    It's obviously a SHEILD chessboard...
    TheLoneTensor
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Maybe they aren't aware of how to set up a chess board? This is a serious statement/question. Not everyone is aware. Designers come up with something within their limitations all of the time.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Dedgecko said:
    Has TLG ever printed a correction sheet? I think that screams poor quality more so than cheese wedges cracking within a week of assembly, and Chinese minifigs that have zero clutch.
    I just finished building Detective Office #10246 recently and it included a correction sheet showing the removal of the paper on the new mirror piece.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,331
    CCC said:
    Have you seen what the problem is though? It seems to be a simple switch of black squares and white squares on one side of the board.

    So in the set, the corner by the tree is white.




    I had seen that, and even though it's fairly easy to see and fix people will still complain. Especially in the age of social media that we are in, people will take to Facebook to whinge about it in the hope of getting something for free.
    Also I have to say as a sign maker I have to put up far more obvious signs that people still miss/ignore and cause problems. TLG are making the right move as I see it, better to say 'sorry we made a mistake that we are fixing' than have to respond to loads of people moaning about how traumatised their child is because the instructions were wrong.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    edited March 2015
    I guess we don't really know how much money they lost over the SHEILD part. They certainly didn't feel the need to recall them and replace the part.

    Is this set exclusive to [email protected] and lego stores? If so, I would have thought a correction leaflet was the best way to go as it is easy to administer, rather than returning all stock, opening it, destroying all the manuals, reprinting them, repackaging them and shipping them all out again. It's even more if they do decide to go for the bottom right is white correction, as then they need to trash all the boxes too as the box art is wrong. If they do that, then possibly the sealed error box will be worth a few dollars more in years to come.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    I've decided to hold off on opening mine as a result of this mixup
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,331
    ^The only issue I can see with a leaflet is they'd either have to open all the boxes to put it in (which if people knew about they'd probably chance it and claim there was a bag with loads of minifigure parts missing) or run the risk of forgetting to hand them out.

    I know that the taking them off the shelf approach seems drastic, but as I said before TLG have got lots of stuff to fill shelf space at the minute.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015

    Dedgecko said:
    Has TLG ever printed a correction sheet? I think that screams poor quality more so than cheese wedges cracking within a week of assembly, and Chinese minifigs that have zero clutch.
    Did you accidentally write those in reverse?  When it comes to considering quality, I can't say that a misprint in instructions even approaches the severity of cheese wedges* cracking or Chinese minifigs with zero clutch.

    * Or all smooth-slopes in general *sigh*
    madforLEGObinaryeye
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    Dedgecko said:
    Has TLG ever printed a correction sheet? I think that screams poor quality more so than cheese wedges cracking within a week of assembly, and Chinese minifigs that have zero clutch.
    Did you accidentally write those in reverse?  When it comes to considering quality, I can't say that a misprint in instructions even approaches the severity of cheese wedges* cracking or Chinese minifigs with zero clutch.

    * Or all smooth-slopes in general *sigh*

    Something we can agree upon.  Cracking bricks in general is a problem.  I've seen it on cheese slopes, arches, 1x1, 1x2. 
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    ^^ I don't think the leaflet needs to be in the box, just at the counter and handed to a consumer every time one is sold.  I can't imagine they sell that many daily per store that this would be cumbersome to the cashier.
    Sethro3
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Perhaps have a pop-up on the screen whenever a chess set is rung up reminding the person to hand out a leaflet with the receipt.
    Sethro3
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    It seems there's a subset of the CMFs that I stumbled across that people apparently enjoy collecting: Minifigures dressed like animals, insects, or food. I just did a quick check on the aftermarket value of these particular CMFs and here are the lowest prices I could find for unopened/sealed CMFs on BrickLink shipped from the USA (not part of super lots):

    8803 -   Gorilla Suit Guy    - $22.99
    8805 -   Lizard Man           - $25.00
    8831 -   Bunny Suit Guy     - $32.99
    71000 - Chicken Suit Guy  - $25.00
    71001 - Bumblebee Girl     - $42.95
    71004 - Panda Guy            - $  9.97
    71007 - Piggy Guy             - $  6.95
    71008 - Unicorn Girl          - $  8.39
    71008 - Hot Dog Guy         - $  7.59

    EBay prices may be a little different, but the BL prices are a good ballpark value. If you stocked up on these sets in unopened/sealed condition, it appears you should do pretty well considering most cost $2.99. I think the later sets (Panda, Piggy, Unicorn, and Hot Dog) have a shot at appreciating in a similar fashion.
    Pitfall69GuroooZonpharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,783
    Well I think the Chicken suit guy and the Bumblebee girl were only two per box due to LEGOs absurd wanting to break up the CMFs into 30 pack retailer boxes, so I'm not surprised they are at the prices they are at now (I cannot remember if the Bunny suit guy and Lizard guys were the same). But a bit surprising about the rest to be sure.
    Pitfall69
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    It seems there's a subset of the CMFs that I stumbled across that people apparently enjoy collecting: Minifigures dressed like animals, insects, or food. 

    Guilty.  Once it became apparent that the CMF would be around for a long time I chose to just focus on the "costume" CMF with the occasional other that I really like (hello, musketeers and jester).  Series 4 was my last full set.

    Unfortunately, I only stocked up in 1x on most of those.  Bumblebee Girl is by far the most surprising to me, followed by Bunny boy.  I don't recall the latter being particularly hard to find.
        
  • ourmoneydiaryourmoneydiary Member Posts: 12
    I got into the CMF game very late...just earlier this year, in fact.  So over the past couple months, I've purchased almost all of the series and built them (still have two series left to get).  Across all of the series, the animal suit figures just seemed to stand out and grab my attention.  I am shocked at the prices of the individual figures, to say the least.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Just had a quick look at An Unexpected Gathering on Amazon . Its at $116 or about. This one really seems to be that silent dark horse and just in the making . The fascination with LOtR has proved to be timeless and I reckon that will still be true in the coming age .

    Another remake say 10 years from now would also regenerate any lost interest among current fans and also produce new ones . but that one one I agree us a big IF.

    Regardless I would think after seeing all there is to see in the lego Lotr line , AUG and Tower Of Orthanc are by far the best sets with the lately talked about "substantial ness " ever present despite the low piece count on AUG.

    We should not lose sight of the likely soon enough to be discontinued Orthanc ....my morning thoughts :)
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    ^ add most iconic ( 3rd by a lil margin, helms Deep)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    The animal suit CMF have been known about and occasionally discussed here for a while. In terns if appreciation in percentage terms, they beat many sets. Even $10 ones you are getting more than 3x rrp, often 4-5x purchase price.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^Imagine if they had a guy in a zombie costume?
    Pitfall69sidersdd
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Up until TLG graced us with Mr. Gold (Series 10), sealed boxes of the CMFs were readily available (if you were patient) for under $150 on eBay. When Mr. Gold was salted into the boxes, everyone decided that they wanted boxes resulting in very high prices. Prior to Mr. Gold, a person who was a little more creative could get them as low as $100/box including shipping by ordering through Amazon.FR. But Amazon.FR killed off the ability to order Lego sets from overseas (at least to the U.S.), so now the cheapest boxes are well over $200. Toss in the fact that these sets have risen from $1.99 USD to 3.99 USD for a meager 5-7 pieces, and except for a few individual sets they're now off my "to buy" list too.

    We still use them as rewards around our house (mainly for school performance), so I occasionally have to make a quick trip to the store to feel some packs to find the specific ones they've requested. Even my child in college still requests getting their CMF set for straight 'A's, but if TLG keeps increasing prices for these I expect them to surpass college tuition at some point. :wink:
  • haakonohaakono Member Posts: 62
    Up until TLG graced us with Mr. Gold (Series 10), sealed boxes of the CMFs were readily available (if you were patient) for under $150 on eBay. When Mr. Gold was salted into the boxes, everyone decided that they wanted boxes resulting in very high prices. Prior to Mr. Gold, a person who was a little more creative could get them as low as $100/box including shipping by ordering through Amazon.FR. But Amazon.FR killed off the ability to order Lego sets from overseas (at least to the U.S.), so now the cheapest boxes are well over $200. Toss in the fact that these sets have risen from $1.99 USD to 3.99 USD for a meager 5-7 pieces, and except for a few individual sets they're now off my "to buy" list too.

    We still use them as rewards around our house (mainly for school performance), so I occasionally have to make a quick trip to the store to feel some packs to find the specific ones they've requested. Even my child in college still requests getting their CMF set for straight 'A's, but if TLG keeps increasing prices for these I expect them to surpass college tuition at some point. :wink:
    Amazon.fr policy of shipping to the states seems to depend on local demand.  If local demand is weak, they'll ship to the US.  And the restriction can change over time.

    So keep checking if you're interested.  I've placed two orders this spring for CMF boxes.  With USD-EUR close to parity, its still a pretty good deal. (around $2.63/pack currently)



    Farmer_JohnZonpharmjod
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Vortex said:
    Just had a quick look at An Unexpected Gathering on Amazon . Its at $116 or about. This one really seems to be that silent dark horse and just in the making.

    Dark horse for LOTR/Hobbit sets, or among all contemporary sets? I believe most discussion here generally agreed Unexpected Gathering would be the most likely from LOTR/Hobbit (with the exception of Orthanc) to do well in the aftermarket.
    Pitfall69sidersddjuggles7dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^What is Unexpected Gathering? ;)
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Unexpected Gatering #79003 was cleared out at Walmart last spring in the $30 range and then again at TRU for $35.00 this past winter.  I bought most I could find at Walmart and resold then at about MSRP rather quickly.  When TRU cleared them out I bought a couple more, but I'm holding on to them to see what they actually will do in the future.
  • jeffmacejeffmace Member Posts: 28
    Pitfall69 said:
    Why aren't there values for Collectible Minifigures on Brickpicker? I have about $3,200 worth of CMF's that are not counted on my Brickfolio.
    This is going to be a separate project for me.  Getting good listings for minifigs is going to take a lot of filtering. It's been on my to-do list for a long time, but then a new project comes and pushes it a long.  I would like to get something going sometime here during 2015. People name things differently, so I will need to build a lot of identifiers for certain minifigs in each series as well as filters.  I have toyed with it in the past and had pretty encouraging results, but now I have a lot of series to catch up on.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^This is good news to hear :) I have been a huge fan since Series 1. I was lucky enough to find a sealed box at my local Toy R Us. They only had 2 and from what I was told; that was the only 2 they received.

    BTW, please change "Collectable" to "Collectible" ;)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    BTW, please change "Collectable" to "Collectible" ;)
    That one ALWAYS throws me...
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