Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

VorpalRyu

^ just looking at the Sea Cow, wide berth... Its not a traditional pirate ship, its not steampunk, its a mish-mash... If I was to get anything from the Lego Movie, it would be Benny's spaceship, but not for investing, personally I'd take a new range of classic style space Lego over both, for the personal collection &/or invest.

novicebuilder101

^Right on. I bought Benny's Spaceship and the Double Decker Couch. I wanted a Dropship because it's cool looking and comes with a sweet Ninja and Johnny Thunder at 50% off but could not find one at Target. 

Here's my fearless forecast for 1.5 years after EOL.
Sea Cow ($250 retail) - $350 (slow to move in the aftermarket)
Brick Bounty ($100 retail) - $200 (average mover in aftermarket, but should have been bought at at least 20% off retail)

AdeelZubair

Damn I miss the #10210 Imperial Flagship!

SuperTramp

Mine looks like it's actually been in battle.

pharmjod

Just sold my personal copy of the Imperial Flagship for $673.

SuperTramp

^Wow, didn't realise they were going for that.

Maybe I should start looking after mine better.

prevere

IF...I've got one sealed one...don't want to open it, don't want to sell it either. So it collects dust.

Farmer_John

pharmjod said:

Just sold my personal copy of the Imperial Flagship for $673.

Does that include shipping? Did you sell through BS, Amazon or eBay? Just curious...

I have always loved the #10210 Imperial Flagship! To think you could pick one up for less than $130 USD shortly before it EOL'd.

prevere

^I bought 5 right at the end there at $130, which were cancelled. I didn't call to complain, but I should have, as they re-appeared briefly after that.

Chubbles

I want that ship but ain't no way at those prices

prevere

^IF is amazing. #1 - for it's design, and #2 that despite POTC ships availability, it still shot up in price.

Farmer_John

prevere said:

^I bought 5 right at the end there at $130, which were cancelled. I didn't call to complain, but I should have, as they re-appeared briefly after that.

Yeah...as I recall they reappeared at S@H a couple times. My hunch is that they (S@H) went through and canceled the larger orders to fulfill more of the smaller orders. There was a lot of chatter (on this very thread) back in 2011 regarding larger orders being canceled.

This set is great on so many levels, and was one of the first "expensive" (>$100 USD) sets I purchased coming out of my dark ages. I ended up purchasing four extra #6239 Cannon Battle sets to fill out its compliment of cannons and soldiers. I also grabbed some canoes/oars from the #6242 Soldiers Fort to make it into a world class flagship. It is definitely as set that one can continue to add to over time.

Pitfall69

brickupdate

@prevere I'm just finishing up building R2D2 and VERY impressed with it. An iconic character that appears in all 6 of the previous films, plus episode 7. This seems like a sure bet for aftermarket success. EVERYONE knows this character, from the youngest kid to the oldest fan. 

Renny

Farmer_John said:

This set is great on so many levels, and was one of the first "expensive" (>$100 USD) sets I purchased coming out of my dark ages. I ended up purchasing four extra #6239 Cannon Battle sets to fill out its compliment of cannons and soldiers. I also grabbed some canoes/oars from the #6242 Soldiers Fort to make it into a world class flagship. It is definitely as set that one can continue to add to over time.

I did the same thing in regards to buying 4 additional Cannon Battles :)  I haven't built the set yet but looking forward to the day I do.

Pitfall69

So, how is the Monster Fighters Ghost Train treating investors these days?

Farmer_John

Renny said:

Farmer_John said:

This set is great on so many levels, and was one of the first "expensive" (>$100 USD) sets I purchased coming out of my dark ages. I ended up purchasing four extra #6239 Cannon Battle sets to fill out its compliment of cannons and soldiers. I also grabbed some canoes/oars from the #6242 Soldiers Fort to make it into a world class flagship. It is definitely as set that one can continue to add to over time.

I did the same thing in regards to buying 4 additional Cannon Battles :)  I haven't built the set yet but looking forward to the day I do.

You will really enjoy building it. We had ours prominently displayed awhile back during some kitchen remodeling. The contractor was really impressed with the set and asked us where we got it. I told him that unfortunately it had been discontinued, but that he should check out places like BL, eBay or Amazon to purchase one. Not sure if he ever did, but he was thoroughly impressed by the set!

Brickarmor

Pitfall69 said:

So, how is the Monster Fighters Ghost Train treating investors these days?

Still holding. Maybe $100 at Halloween.

mathew

Built and sold an Imperial Flagship.  Beautiful set.  But it's like the UCS Imperial Shuttle in that nothing else really matches it.  The box art was quite good too especially this image:  

Rainstorm26

eggshen said:

@Rainstorm26 a cube at work functions similarly to a crawlspace. Just have to lock the good stuff in your desk so the constantly changing cleaning folks don't get any bright ideas.

Might be a bit tough to fit a large set in your desk drawer, but whatever works.

Rainstorm26

monkeyhanger said:

Rainstorm26 said:

The only way I survived buying my sealed UCS MF was to hide it in my crawl space for several years, until I could pull it out and say "look honey, I bought this LEGO set for $350 on sale and look what it's worth now."  Otherwise I don't know if I'd be around today.

Maybe a strategy others should consider.

Would not work for me - the missus would want it sold and a large cut of the proceeds heading her way, no way she'd let me crack it open and build it knowing it was worth £2k.

You should use the excuse from @Pitfall69 s experience.  The kids got into it, and now we have to build it.

CCC

Pitfall69 said:

So, how is the Monster Fighters Ghost Train treating investors these days?

Compared to RRP, probably not that great. But a number of us in the UK got them for £30 or so, so probably OK. I parted mine out (x3 sets), keeping all the regular train parts and the wheels and rubber tyres and still made about 50% profit.

Maxime_1987

What you think about #60051 High speed train, #60052 cargo train and #31026 Bike shop. I believe those will increase in the LTH. But I would like to hear your thoughts? There is a 20% off at this moment in a local store so I am thinking of buying these.

TheLoneTensor

Looking past the fact that they are city sets, you need to hope that there aren't current train sets out when you're looking to resell, because their value would be severely hampered as a result.  As much as people seem to like the current blue engine, it's just another nondescript city train set in a long line of nondescript city trains set.

For investment, I'd buy a modular a hundred times before I bought one of these.  For personal use, 20% off is ok.

madforLEGO

Maxime_1987 said:

What you think about #60051 High speed train, #60052 cargo train and #31026 Bike shop. I believe those will increase in the LTH. But I would like to hear your thoughts? There is a 20% off at this moment in a local store so I am thinking of buying these.

I think this was asked earlier, but for these train sets:
#60051 : Good for personal use, but could be OK if LEGO does not make another white high speed train in White for the next one but only if gotten on sale.
#60052 : Good for personal use, especially at 20% off, but seeing lack of movement for #7939 I would not see these as a brilliant money maker EOL. IMO opinion, aside from the blue engine, the set is pretty lackluster. At least, not many real cargo cars, and missing a tanker, which is always sought after. If they could have taken the blue engine from #60026 and put it with cars from #7939 that would have been a terrific set IMO.

In general I would not buy the new trains for resale. It is far too early to even contemplate it as there will likely be more sales on these (though not sure how many better that 20% off at this moment) and more importantly they are likely here for at least 3-4 more years. But seeing how poorly #3677 and #7939 seem to be doing, in relation to rrp, I am not putting my money into these.

Now #31026 Creator Bike Shop & cafe on the other hand could do well, but only if you get them on discount (at least 20%, IMO 30% would be far better). Like any other Creator set, they seem to be a bit overpriced IMO. So I typically only buy a creator set like this for at least 25-30% off.

Farmer_John

^Yeah...TLG trains haven't really impressed since late 2011 when the Emerald Night went away, although the Maersk Train that disappeared in late 2012 wasn't too bad.

Maxime_1987

Yeah this is what I thought. I forgot about how the #7939 didn't do so well. I might try to deal #60052 for 30% off. Maybe this will be a better option. Thank you for clarifying this for me!

For the #60051, I think I will buy it but for personal use. Or I might just save it for a while and if the price does not go up in LTH, I will use it for myself! 

For #31026, Yeah might have it for 30% so I believe I will buy one or two. 

Pitfall69

Aside from Expert/Creator trains, passenger trains don't do as well as cargo trains. Cargo trains offer more play value, but are also more expensive. If this tells you anything, I haven't purchased the last 2 Passenger Trains and I have only bought 1 #7939 and 2 #60052 for my personal collection. I like the #60052 blue EMD Engine better than the Yellow engine in #7939, but I like the cargo and cars better in #7939. The Blue Cargo Train has a better loading structure as well.

novicebuilder101

A couple of weeks ago, I was able to pick up two #60051 High speed trains from Amazon UK for $190 USD shipped. I thought it was barely worth it at that price but I figured I'd keep one and flip one later hopefully for $200 when it gets retired. I don't think 20% off is a great deal if you're looking to sell it later.

Pitfall69

Don't get me wrong, you will not lose money on the trains, but if you are looking for a good return on your investment, I wouldn't put your money into any of these trains. Now, the train station is interesting. I think this is one of the better ones in recent years and if you can get a good deal at say 30%+ discount, you could make a decent return.

Farmer_John

^My thoughts exactly. The only difference for me is that I purchased two of the #7939 sets and one of the #60052 sets, mainly because they had better discounts (to date) on the #7939. I do like the blue engine much better than the yellow engine though...

TheLoneTensor

novicebuilder101 said:

A couple of weeks ago, I was able to pick up two #60051 High speed trains from Amazon UK for $190 USD shipped. I thought it was barely worth it at that price but I figured I'd keep one and flip one later hopefully for $200 when it gets retired. I don't think 20% off is a great deal if you're looking to sell it later.

Even if it manages to get to $200 (I won't take that bet), it will take years.  Again, these things are not what anyone should have in their brick investment portfolio.

Pitfall69

*Pitfall rushes to his portfolio and tears pages out

romanstar

I got 2 #60051 in the loft.Think i will flog them.

romanstar

BTW.Whats the opinion on the Skiff#9496 and the catina #75052 in the aftermarket.I quite like them.

Pitfall69

Do a search on the Cantina, it has been talked about a lot recently. As far as the Skiff, I think it will do well if you got it at its lowest price. Obviously goes well with the Sail Barge.

madforLEGO

romanstar said:

BTW.Whats the opinion on the Skiff#9496 and the catina #75052 in the aftermarket.I quite like them.

The problem is that many many people hoard SW to sell later, so really while it may go for something, more often than naught you are going to see far more casual resellers trying to sell EOL sets. Then you also have to be concerned with LEGO redoing the set when they finally start rising.
Like @Pitfall69 says about the Skiff, get it on sale if you are going to hold on to it for resale.
Same for any sets, but especially for SW IMO.

romanstar

Yes been thinking about investing in SW lately but after some research it seems its a crowded market so im just contemplating what direction/theme to try and get into.Im quite confused! :)

SuperTramp

Nothing to be confused about, pick one set and get has many has you can. Something like PS and you can't go wrong.

Dad

^ I'm not sure I agree with that. Make sure you pick the right set if you follow that advice or you're in trouble. With all due respect @romanstar you seem very undecided which direction you're going in. There is no magic formula. A lot of work, risk, worry, and a few calculated gambles. And patience.  

  

Farmer_John

romanstar said:

Yes been thinking about investing in SW lately but after some research it seems its a crowded market so im just contemplating what direction/theme to try and get into.Im quite confused! :)

It used to be that everything SW did well in the aftermarket, but over the past several years you pretty much have to employ the same strategies as any other theme. Ironically, the SW aftermarket turned down about the same time TLG started remaking many of the SW sets in some form or fashion.

rocao

TheLoneTensor said:

For investment, I'd buy a modular a hundred times before I bought one of these.  For personal use, 20% off is ok.

Are you saying that if you owned 99 of a modular set you'd buy #100 before you bought a single Passenger Train to resale? I don't think I would.

For starters, it will take a while to get to that 100th for sale. If you want to offer the absolute lowest price across all marketplaces to sell those 100 briskly, you are exerting a fair amount of downward price pressure. Also, you're buying the passenger train at a discount and, presumably, the modular at none.

There's not a perfect comparison, but:

#7938 Passenger Train:
Available 4 years
20% off = $104 (I actually bought most of mine for ~$90)
Brickpicker value of $176.56
69.8% ROI

#10211 Grand Emporium
Available 4 years
$150 (assuming no discounts, as was the case for the 2nd half of shelf life)
Brickpicker value of $246.03
64.0% ROI

Passenger Train has had an extra 4 months to appreciate, but in spite of this, these numbers don't support a 100:0 ratio for me.

TheLoneTensor

Romanstar, what's up with your lack of spaces between your punctuation?

bluedragon

^the Saramago of the forum!

TheLoneTensor

rocao said:

TheLoneTensor said:

For investment, I'd buy a modular a hundred times before I bought one of these.  For personal use, 20% off is ok.

<A lot of time spent>

I was writing hyperbole, but feel free to take it to the literal extreme.

Farmer_John

rocao said:

TheLoneTensor said:

For investment, I'd buy a modular a hundred times before I bought one of these.  For personal use, 20% off is ok.

Passenger Train has had an extra 4 months to appreciate, but in spite of this, these numbers don't support a 100:0 ratio for me.

It's difficult to compare trains and modulars...apples to oranges really.

TLG keeps coming out with both, but I think there's just a bigger aftermarket for the modulars. Another factor (for me at least) is that the City Passenger trains seem to be much more repetitive; the modulars more unique. In fact, the City Passenger trains seem more repetitive than the City Cargo trains (but not by much).

Give it a year and I think the GE will pull a "Seabiscuit" on #7938 and #7939.

The other expert train sets (I'm looking at you Emerald Night) are a different story!

JMO...

rocao

I did allow for the possibility it was hyperbole, but what about this? 

TheLoneTensor said:

Even if it manages to get to $200 (I won't take that bet), it will take years.  Again, these things are not what anyone should have in their brick investment portfolio.

The second sentence is a statement of fact. The comparison I provided speaks to that statement even if the 100 to zero was hyperbole.

TheLoneTensor

Apples and oranges.  The train in question was not #7938, but #60051, which exhibits a 15% msrp markup over #7938 for nearly the same, identical thing.  Buying that at 20% off is $120, which to gain a 66% increase would require the unlikely resale price of $200.

Let me extend my hyperbole.  For investment purposes, there are a dozen sets I'd buy a hundred of before I'd buy #60051 at 20% off.

rocao

Farmer_John said:

It's difficult to compare trains and modulars...apples to oranges really.

TLG keeps coming out with both, but I think there's just a bigger aftermarket for the modulars. Another factor (for me at least) is that the City Passenger trains seem to be much more repetitive; the modulars more unique. In fact, the City Passenger trains seem more repetitive than the City Cargo trains (but not by much).

Give it a year and I think the GE will pull a "Seabiscuit" on #7938 and #7939.

JMO...

I definitely agree that Grand Emporium will prove to have a higher ceiling. If the question was if the Passenger Train should be purchased instead of a Grand Emporium, I'd agree with a statement of no. What I was refuting was that Passenger Train wasn't worthwhile at all.

rocao

Your original argument against #60051 was that it was "just another nondescript city train". But when I use #7938 (which I didn't cherry pick because it's an aftermarket star... because it isn't), which is the previous incarnation of the nondescript city train, you say that we can't compare them? Weird.