Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

cheshirecat

Personally, when seeing the hellicarrier in person I was genuinely shocked how completely inconsequential it seemed. Its much smaller than I expected, doesn't feel long like the ssd or substantial at all. Its not the longest, or biggest, or tallest or the most nu.Ber of pieces. Very little happens other than the propellers spin. In terms of impact as a set its a million miles from #10179 even before you factor in the MFs iconicness. I kind of think its a bit of a turkey.

jeffmace

Hi everyone, this is Jeff from Brickpicker.com.  I wrote Huw (didn't know he was on holiday, but he did respond) and asked if it would ok to post a link to a survey on AFOLs that we are conducting.  I wanted to try and get some results in there from different communities.  It is completely anonymous and asking some fairly generic market research types of questions.  The results will be shared by next week.  I have a few hundred responses already from my site and it has been a pretty interesting read so far.  If you have a few moments, I would greatly appreciate it if you can respond.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/lego_afol_survey

Thank you

brickupdate

I think the LEGO aftermarket community should commission an inspirational documentary series called:

"How #10179 UCS Millennium Falcon Changed My Life."

Each episode will tell the story of how one person came to possess a UCS Falcon, how much they made on it in the aftermarket, and how that windfall sent their kid to college, saved an endangered animal, or brought us out of the recession. 

Thus, the legend of the UCS Falcon grows...

#MyUCSFalconStory

cloaked7

^ True, I was thinking along the lines of the UCS MF being seen as the quintessential buy and resell set.  The set so often referred to.  To your point, there have been better performers, but none garner more long term attention than the UCS MF.

VorpalRyu

Real argument here is how rabid & cashed up the respective fanbases are now, & in the years to come. Being a fan of both & having contact with some seriously Über-fanboys, I can see what some have said of the possibly of the Helicarrier landing in MF territory.

Hell one of my friends was considering taking a short holiday USA way, just to get to see the LA premiere of Age of Ultron, cause he figured he might get to sit near Jackson or Downey. At the same time I know one of his cousins' is considering similar idea for Episode VII, I think both are nuts, but they are definitely not alone.

Several of these guys in both fanbases have come back to Lego recent times after seeing some of the sets I have, they all decided to play catch up & ignoring the clear cash grinding, bought all the sets they were after, one even paying US$230 for a Quinjet cause he couldn't bothered trawling the net for a cheaper one (similar stories for some of his SW sets too).

My biggest issue with that whole scenario was that I didn't think to buy a few extras when I bought mine... :(

Pitfall69

@brickupdate , I am sure the UCS MF has destroyed some lives too. I remember the evil glare I received from my wife when I was going to spend that much money on a Lego set. Then it went on sale and I bought one . I wanted to buy 2, but I wanted to wake up in the morning ;)

cloaked7

^ And, the 'rest of the story'?  Do you still have your UCS MF?  

I sold one of the two I got for $1,000.  At the time it seemed like a good idea.  I mean, how much higher can it go?  I still have the 2nd one.  Still sealed.  I may never sell it.  My Precioussssss......

Pitfall69

I still have it, but there is more to the story. I had the Falcon sitting on my treadmill to keep it off the floor. I went downstairs with my daughter, brother n law and nephew to show them something. My nephew saw the UCS MF sitting there, walked over to it, grabbed a corner and pulled. Needless the say, it isn't sealed anymore and that boy almost lost his life that faithful day ;) I still tell my brother n law that he owes me the difference between a sealed UCS MF an opened one :)

Brickaholic

    Pitfall69 said:

@brickupdate , I am sure the UCS MF has destroyed some lives too. I remember the evil glare I received from my wife when I was going to spend that much money on a Lego set. Then it went on sale and I bought one . I wanted to buy 2, but I wanted to wake up in the morning

I liked that and really really relate to it, even now I still get them looks >:)

 

Bumblepants

I put the USC MF on my wedding registry at Target. It was on there for several hours before I got caught. :(

BACbrix

UCS Falcon? Those words would have me on the lawn packed up... decisions. Wife or Legos....

BACbrix

Sandcrawler or EV? I have only enough for one... I have both built but for resell

brickupdate

Pitfall69  You actually let children into a house that had a sealed UCS Falcon?!?
:) 

mathew

BACbrix said:

Sandcrawler or EV? I have only enough for one... I have both built but for resell

Which one do you like better?  I tend to be more bullish on sets that I myself enjoy (though that's not always the correct approach to reselling).

novicebuilder101

@BACbrix I think Sandcrawler has at least another year or two left in it so I'd go with Ewoks. I'm doing what you're doing with these exclusives. Buying one for myself and one to hold on to in case it blows up. That way, I can afford more sets :smile: 

BACbrix

I love Ewok Village. Amazing build and the minifigures are great. Sandcrawler is decent but minifigures are sort of unspectacular in comparison. I agree I will get Ewok village.

hoyatables

My strategy for UCS is basically to buy, but only if I know I would build it myself.  I find the UCS sets to be overall not worth the time and cost.  Now, to date all I've actually acquired and built is the Falcon, which was indeed amazing.  I have the UCS Imperial Shuttle but haven't built it.  Just sold one copy and debating whether to sell the other or hold and build.  Lots of very positive reviews, but I suspect the system-scale version will tide me over for at least another year.

I was all jazzed about UCS Slave I, but after looking at it more closely I'm not sure I see anything that makes me think so.  The system set was completely satisfying.  I fear that the UCS X-Wing will be the same, and I am sure that the UCS Tie Fighter is a "pass" for me.  I am debating whether to pick up an X-Wing and/or Slave I to "hold."  But if the aftermarket isn't going to do the same thing it did with the Imperial Shuttle, I'm not sure I want to tie up capital in those sets when there are other sets I would rather be building.   

When it comes to detailed and intricate building, I guess the Modulars are enough to satiate me.  Star Wars Playsets are different.  LOVED the Death Star.  LOVED the Ewok Village.  Would LOVE Cloud City if they ever produce it.  With that in mind, you would think that the Sandcrawler is a lock, but I just can't get over spending $300 for basically a giant box.  

That said, hate to let VIP pass without a nibble, so I am also struggling with Sandcrawler, UCS Slave I, or UCS X-Wing.  Thoughts and abuse welcome.

novicebuilder101

For the UCS ships that you can currently buy, I'm most bullish on Slave 1. Why is that? Because it's what got me back into collecting Lego and I think that lots of SW fans think it's really cool. I didn't see the Sandcrawler and think to myself, dang I need to have it. Yes, it looks more impressive than Slave 1, but I wasn't really into Sandcrawlers as a kid. What kid was?

If I was getting into collecting 4 years from now and found out that there was a UCS Slave 1, I'd have to have it. I have to have a UCS Falcon and would have one if I made six figures hah but what I'm saying is that fans of licensed products have to love what they're buying for the prices to appreciate to uber levels. Imperial Shuttle? I don't care about it. Slave 1? Sign me up. You get the picture.

Yes, and I know scarcity plays a big issue, and if everyone thinks that Slave 1 will do bangers and buy gazillion of them, it will keep the prices down. But, I also think there will always be a market for it and it will consistently be a quick mover once it retires.  

Farmer_John

I came out of my dark ages around 2007-2008, and could have easily bought a UCS MF while it was available. But at the time I thought only an insane person would pay more than $50 for a Lego set. How naive I was!

novicebuilder101

I would have felt the same back in 2007-2008. Who would have thought that Lego would be so crazy huge back then. Was anyone really investing in Lego back then?

As a sidenote, I know that Lego hates resellers but the UCS Falcon example is a big reason why if I love a set, I just go ahead and buy it without obsessing over the purchase. I know if I want it after it retires, it's going to sting more than a little.

madforLEGO

I did not buy a UCS falcon and I do not lament that decision. Are they worth a lot now? Sure, but at the time it was not something I wanted, and rather pricey (even on sale). You can either say 'woe is me' everyday that you did not buy one, or move on. Plus if they release another UCS Falcon (not unheard of for SW line), then  woe is to the guy that paid a small fortune for one.
If I was to lament a missed opportunity, I would have bought many more #10190 Market Streets when they will still in production, but that is just me.
To me, at the time, 90 USD per Market Street and also the smaller size of the box (compared to the UCS falcon) would have been a lot more compatible with my wallet and also for storage.

As for UCS Slave 1: It is great.. until it retires and cheaper slave 1s are released.
The UCS Falcon is a bit different than a UCS Slave 1 IMO, as the other recent slave 1's that have come out have been closer to minifig scale than any other Falcons after UCS.
So if you want a UCS Slave 1 for yourself, go for it. However, I will not recommend hoarding those to sell later.

VorpalRyu

A few online retailers I check regularly are starting to pump out retired SW sets at below local RRP (one sold UCS MFs at AU$4k), most of which were well above RRP before. Is there some announcement I've missed in the last twenty four?

VorpalRyu

Here's the link to UCS MFs, they apparently had no purchase limit.

http://www.shopforme.com.au/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=34_37&products_id=977

doriansdad

VorpalRyu said:

A few online retailers I check regularly are starting to pump out retired SW sets at below local RRP (one sold UCS MFs at AU$4k), most of which were well above RRP before. Is there some announcement I've missed in the last twenty four?

Probably just another strapped aussie looking to cash out before the monumental collapse. It is going to get brutal with all of that debt downunder.

Pitfall69

I'm sorry, but I don't "buy" the thought of a system/minifig version satisfying the need/want of a UCS version. The UCS MF is amazing and nothing system/minifigure scale will ever hold a candle to it. I find it interesting that sales of #7191 UCS X-Wing are still holding up and #4502 and recently #9493 values are trending upwards.

As far as the UCS Slave 1, it is awesome and as a collector of Star Wars Lego, I think it will be a good investment no matter how many smaller scale versions they put out (currently 3 not including Jango's Slave 1)

Basta

doriansdad said:

VorpalRyu said:

A few online retailers I check regularly are starting to pump out retired SW sets at below local RRP (one sold UCS MFs at AU$4k), most of which were well above RRP before. Is there some announcement I've missed in the last twenty four?

Probably just another strapped aussie looking to cash out before the monumental collapse. It is going to get brutal with all of that debt downunder.

LOL, I hope that is a joke. Otherwise you have been drinking the Kool-Aid our F##^ stick of a prime minister has been spruiking? That said if he does stay in power much longer things could turn terminal for Australia :( 

VorpalRyu

Yeah, monumental collapse because of the billions in debt Australia is, compared to the USA & UK, who are trillions in debt???

Rainstorm26

The only way I survived buying my sealed UCS MF was to hide it in my crawl space for several years, until I could pull it out and say "look honey, I bought this LEGO set for $350 on sale and look what it's worth now."  Otherwise I don't know if I'd be around today.

Maybe a strategy others should consider.

VorpalRyu

@Basta agreed, Abbott the Idjit has to go, else we could see that collapse @doriansdad is trying to hawk... Murdoch's mouthpiece should be put on trial for treason, being Prime Minister & talking down your own country like he does has to qualify, doesn't it?

doriansdad

VorpalRyu said:

Yeah, monumental collapse because of the billions in debt Australia is, compared to the USA & UK, who are trillions in debt???

I am talking household debt. Here in the USA we are sitting pretty and about to enjoy a very long and prosperous cycle.

Basta said:

LOL, I hope that is a joke. Otherwise you have been drinking the Kool-Aid our F##^ stick of a prime minister has been spruiking? That said if he does stay in power much longer things could turn terminal for Australia :( 

Selling the aussie all the way down to 35c within 3 years. No joke. I saw the writing on the wall when I went back home last March. It will be brutal.

danstraindepot

I bought a UCS falcon right as my kids were getting into lego.  Mainly though because it was a toy I dreamed about as a kid and never got.   So it came in, and I was like, my kids are not playing with this.  I put it away for a few years, pulled it out, and thought we did not have space for it.  I listed it on eBay and got like $1500.  Now at the time I had NO IDEA that newer LEGO would be worth that kind of money.  

Soooo...  I now had an excuse that I could buy a tremendous amount of LEGO to build a huge city with my kids AND it would be an investment!   Anyhow that thing has cost me a ton of money in a way, but I honestly don't know if we would have gotten this much into LEGO without it. 

Thats my UCS Falcon story, and yes, sometimes I wish I would have kept it longer.  

VorpalRyu

@doriansdad, I would take the writing on the wall with a grain of salt (a one ton sized grain), after all, remember when the 'experts' said the AU would never come even close to parity with the US dollar???

As for household debt, I'm guessing you're looking at Sydney or Melbourne? Cause they tend to like living on the plastic fantastic, I don't know so many peoples down our way that are that silly, I for one have no bank loans or credit cards, I own all I have outright.

Farmer_John

cheshirecat said:

Personally, when seeing the hellicarrier in person I was genuinely shocked how completely inconsequential it seemed. Its much smaller than I expected, doesn't feel long like the ssd or substantial at all. Its not the longest, or biggest, or tallest or the most nu.Ber of pieces. Very little happens other than the propellers spin. In terms of impact as a set its a million miles from #10179 even before you factor in the MFs iconicness. I kind of think its a bit of a turkey.

Thanks for the heads up...now I need to go check it out in the store. I was looking for an excuse to go anyway...

So since the SOH is likely on the way out, which set do you like more: the SOH or SH?

Pitfall69

^Not SOH. Of course this is just my opinion, but I heard a few other people who weren't too fond of SOH for investment purposes.

Basta

As you say @Pitfall69the SOH doesn't seem that popular from an investment point of view, which to me means it could do well depending on when it actually goes.

My guess is that a larger proportion of those interested in the large Advanced models are the type of collector who wants to collect them all. At which point how long the set was available for and how many are available become a bigger influence than how popular the set was.  

 

Farmer_John

Farmer_John said:

Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"

Ronyar said:

If we all start getting small Elves sets added to our [email protected] orders when nothing we ordered relates to them and no promotion has been announced, THEN we know it's another Chima.

Interesting that Elves just came out on March 1 (per Brickset) and Amazon just discounted the first set #41074 by 30%. I don't remember that ever happening so quickly with DC/Marvel Superheroes, Technic, or even Ninjago sets when they were originally released. I do remember that happening with Chima though. I guess all that needs to happen now is for the free Elves sets to start showing up in my orders.

Chubbles

I've been bit by the Pirate Ship bug and sadly there really aren't many affordable ones out there at the moment.  Considering grabbing a Sea Cow but without the figs.  Do you guys think this one has some afterlife to it being that it's so closely tied to the film and doesn't resemble your typical pirate ship?

TheLoneTensor

I can't help but think the Sea Cow has too many variables for me to consider investing.  I get it's goofy and unique, but it's the goofy that scares me.  If you consider how many "winner" EOL sets there have been, how many have been goofy?

pharmjod

I understand on the sea cow. I love the set. It was a very fun build. Looks great! I'm just not sure how it will do long term, especially at msrp

SuperTramp

Think it will easily sell for £300 within a few months EOL.

I had two and needed the money so listed them on ebay, Sold them both for £224.99 each when they were available at Lego for RRP.

mathew

The Sea Cow is hurt by the release of the double decker couch. 

I will say that it's one of those sets that is much more impressive in person.  It's truly unique looking compared to say a UCS Star Wars.  But I just don't personally like it enough to spend the $250 on it. 

Pitfall69

I try not to invest in Lego sets I don't care for. If for some reason the set doesn’t appreciate well, at least I can part it out and add it to my collection. My worst investment to date is MMV. I didn't buy a lot, but I bought enough to regret it. I can add at least 1 to expand my village and maybe part out one.

VorpalRyu

^ Sound advice there.

madforLEGO

Right now I have a hard time putting any money into any set at, or over, 200 USD. Even if it could do gangbusters in the after EOL market.
Too much money and space to tie up into a set IMO (never mind you will not really know when these sets go EOL it seems anymore)

Sea cow is a bit of an x Factor to me. Does the next movie have it? If not, will it be in the conscious of people enough to want one?
Like @mathew says, it is also hurt a bit by the double decker couch as well.
@TheLoneTensor put it best when he says it is 'goofy'. Are people going to pay a lot to display 'goofy' in their den or living room? Is LEGO movie really that iconic? No. whereas you buy and display Star Wars most people will guess that immediately if they do not know what it is already. Same with a VW camper Van or mini cooper, or SOH TB, etc.

As for Sea Cow being around $500 USD a few months after EOL? Well I doubt it highly, but it is someone else's money to spend, not mine.
I think people are drunk off of seeing prices of Creator architecture sets that had low production numbers, and SW sets that have EOL to rise that dramatically. You also cannot count the Imperial Flagship in this argument either as that is a true ship, complete with real sails as well and very detailed. You can display that even if you are not a true fan of LEGO, but love ships.

Sea cow is a fanciful lump IMO. I do Just not see people spending 500 USD for a lump to display. Maybe if the next movie prominently has it but LEGO does not re-release it. Otherwise I just do not see a demand for it.

prevere

Looks like R2 is really doing well. It's interesting to see that this one, surprisingly, may actually have been under the radar for many resellers.

eggshen

@Rainstorm26 a cube at work functions similarly to a crawlspace. Just have to lock the good stuff in your desk so the constantly changing cleaning folks don't get any bright ideas.

monkeyhanger

Rainstorm26 said:

The only way I survived buying my sealed UCS MF was to hide it in my crawl space for several years, until I could pull it out and say "look honey, I bought this LEGO set for $350 on sale and look what it's worth now."  Otherwise I don't know if I'd be around today.

Maybe a strategy others should consider.

Would not work for me - the missus would want it sold and a large cut of the proceeds heading her way, no way she'd let me crack it open and build it knowing it was worth £2k.

Brickaholic

madforLEGO said:

Right now I have a hard time putting any money into any set at, or over, 200 USD. Even if it could do gangbusters in the after EOL market.
Too much money and space to tie up into a set IMO (never mind you will not really know when these sets go EOL it seems anymore)

Sea cow is a bit of an x Factor to me. Does the next movie have it? If not, will it be in the conscious of people enough to want one?
Like @mathew says, it is also hurt a bit by the double decker couch as well.
@TheLoneTensor put it best when he says it is 'goofy'. Are people going to pay a lot to display 'goofy' in their den or living room? Is LEGO movie really that iconic? No. whereas you buy and display Star Wars most people will guess that immediately if they do not know what it is already. Same with a VW camper Van or mini cooper, or SOH TB, etc.

As for Sea Cow being around $500 USD a few months after EOL? Well I doubt it highly, but it is someone else's money to spend, not mine.
I think people are drunk off of seeing prices of Creator architecture sets that had low production numbers, and SW sets that have EOL to rise that dramatically. You also cannot count the Imperial Flagship in this argument either as that is a true ship, complete with real sails as well and very detailed. You can display that even if you are not a true fan of LEGO, but love ships.

Sea cow is a fanciful lump IMO. I do Just not see people spending 500 USD for a lump to display. Maybe if the next movie prominently has it but LEGO does not re-release it. Otherwise I just do not see a demand for it.

Yep, a big pass for me

Lobot

  VorpalRyu said:

Yeah, monumental collapse because of the billions in debt Australia is, compared to the USA & UK, who are trillions in debt???

The UK is only £1.5 trillion in debt, so technically it's not trillions yet.... ;)

And anyway, all of the politicians keep telling us that the deficit is reducing, but most people don't seem to understand that just means the total of our overdraft isn't increasing quite as fast as it was a couple of years ago!  I just love how facts can be distorted so easily...(sigh)

SuperTramp

What is this displaying?

Do people really spend £500+ on a lego set that originally cost £200 to tear the box open, build it, then let it sit on the side collecting dust?

Crazy...