Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Farmer_John

rocao said:

Farmer_John said:

Okay...going out on a limb here and in the spirit of this thread, my prediction is that the UCS Tumbler will be EOL'd before the end of this year (2015). 

I'll take the over :)

Fair enough Sir! May the best prognosticator win! :wink: 

TheLoneTensor

Basta said:

Fire Brigade Vs. Town Hall is a good example, there is currently 14 FB's listed on AU eBay and the average asking price is actually less than the 9 TH's listed. There was about a year difference in retirement and by all accounts FB was the more popular Mod. It will be interesting to see the prices in another year. (I realise TH had a higher RRP which probably skews the data a little.)

Are you suggesting that you expect the FB to be higher than the TH?  I think the TH will always go for more than the FB.  The TH was a 33% increase in RRP, so from the start the FB is behind the game (more than just a little).  But, but the bigger factor is that there's just not as many THs in closets as there are FBs, which will always drive their price even higher.

Chubbles

I also think a TH is a more desired building in a completed town than a FB.  If they do a modular Police Precinct then I think that will boost the FB as well because you'll want both.

Bumblepants

I was surprised to see my local Lego Store had three copies of TB on the shelf yesterday. Haven't seen that one there since last summer at least.

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

^Me too

Buying them in pairs?

Sethro3

I like keeping up with this board. I have no knowledge or desire to be a reseller, but obviously a lot of you are interested in that and can make good predictions on values/EOL/etc...

I really hope the Tumbler doesn't go away before I get one. I have missed out on a few UCS SW sets, which in the end it won't matter, but missing out on the Tumbler would not be good.

I'd assume the UCS X-Wing will be gone this year as well? Especially since the Slave 1 was just released and the Tie Fighter will be coming out.

Diggydoes

I do wonder how Ewok Village will perform once EOL´ed, from a AFOL perspective it´s not really that attractive to me since it´s more of a play, than a display set, on the other hand it´s THE ultimate Endor-set and will most likely never rereleased in a similar form?! I got 3, each for 200€ (RRP is 250€ over here) so i guess i can´t go wrong?! 
I´m reselling pretty much small time so this is a fairly big investment for me :o

Pitfall69

^You are probably correct about Ewok Village never being done again, but I don't know if it is as good as investment as other sets.

FollowsClosely

^^^ If you want an x-wing, order it now!

madforLEGO

Chubbles said:

I also think a TH is a more desired building in a completed town than a FB.  If they do a modular Police Precinct then I think that will boost the FB as well because you'll want both.

I disagree. Fire Stations are wildly popular and the reason why FBs are going for what they are going for now and not more like what a GE goes for now. FBs were constantly available on sale and via BOGO50s are TRU in their 5-6 year run, and they still got to where they are now. even though many 'poo-poo'ed' the set, saying it would not do well because of those reasons. GE, by comparison was really the same way, up until about 1 year before its EOL it was also readily available in sales and part of BOGO50s as well.
One of the few reasons why TH is pricey is it does not have many available from resellers, and many did not think much of the set to begin with, and least not for its 199.99USD price tag (so not many purchased it). It was a slow mover, but likely part of the cause to that was LEGO insistence on the exclusives sales ban in place for the US.
If these were readily available in sales for 150-175 they would have likely sold a lot more of them and even then you had those that probably would not have bought it.

However TH had far less people stacking those and coupled with the higher RRP the price will likely rise above FB nonetheless.  But I think the FB is more popular than the TH, there are just more FBs to be had right now. If the stock availability were truly the same I think FB would be more expensive at this point.

Pitfall69 said:

^You are probably correct about Ewok Village never being done again, but I don't know if it is as good as investment as other sets.

While the village may not be done again, LEGO will likely make another bunker set, or other Endor set with many if not all of the figures from the 249.99 USD set.
If the figures are re-done in other sets then you may not see this set rise that much. I still think it will rise. It is a SW set and collectors will want every set regardless but if LEGO reintroduces another Endor set after the Village is done then I do not see it rising by leaps and bounds.

tamamahm

CapnRex101 said:

@Pitfall69 - Research Institute is the only set I truly regret buying. I picked one up to keep my Ideas collection up to date and put it straight back in the box after building it. I just don't see the appeal of the models at all.

As an aside, because of this set, I have found that my interest is in highly detailed vignettes. My favorite sets in a very long time have been the Valentine and Easter set from this year, along with RI. The appeal for me, is that they are quick to build, and they do not take up the room of a modular. I can easily display them on my desk, and they represent things I enjoy, or areas of interest. I found my kids had a similar view about the Friends animal series last year. Sometimes short, sweet and detailed has an appeal, but I do not expect for it to appeal to all.

Now for the Big Bang Theory larger vignette set. .. Any idea when this is supposed to come out?

DAVEmoon

Yep tumbler,death star Simpsons and pet shop and Parisian restaurant,double points about 95 off the helicarrier on next purchase

Farmer_John

Diggydoes said:

I do wonder how Ewok Village will perform once EOL´ed, from a AFOL perspective it´s not really that attractive to me since it´s more of a play, than a display set, on the other hand it´s THE ultimate Endor-set and will most likely never rereleased in a similar form?! I got 3, each for 200€ (RRP is 250€ over here) so i guess i can´t go wrong?! 
I´m reselling pretty much small time so this is a fairly big investment for me :o

Ironically I might be one of the people purchasing an EV from you...if I continue to drag my feet on picking up my own copy. :smile: 

DAVEmoon

null
Ghostbusters will do well i think and the cantina is a no brainer.again snow plough but if they do bring a new one out,it will take a few years to hit 45.

TheLoneTensor

I don't think the Cantina is a no brainer.

novicebuilder101

Hi all. How do you feel about investing in this one at $95? It's not as distinctive as the more popular models but don't most trains appreciate rather well?

60051: High-Speed Passenger Train

Pitfall69

TheLoneTensor said:

I don't think the Cantina is a no brainer.

I think it will do well, but I don't think it will be a huge money maker. It has been on sale constantly and it will take some time to reach 2x rrp. 

Pitfall69

novicebuilder101 said:

Hi all. How do you feel about investing in this one at $95? It's not as distinctive as the more popular models but don't most trains appreciate rather well?

60051: High-Speed Passenger Train

I think if you get these at a great price, you should do well, but Lego has been churning out these trains recently and that might hurt resale value. To me, passenger trains aren't as fun as Cargo Trains.

madforLEGO

novicebuilder101 said:

Hi all. How do you feel about investing in this one at $95? It's not as distinctive as the more popular models but don't most trains appreciate rather well?

60051: High-Speed Passenger Train

Lately Im not sure the trains are doing as well as they used to. Too many folks are buying them for reselling and it appear that the new trains really are cutting into the older train prices. 7939 is not really doing too well, nor is #3677 in the aftermarket.
That said,
You cannot go wrong with a passenger train if it is only 95 USD, I just would not get many.

wagnerml2

^
 The powerfunctions and track alone are $95.

Pitfall69

Yeah, that is what I was saying. If you can for these for $95, I don't see how you can go wrong.

Chubbles

The fact that the fairgound theme is being expanded I am very bullish on the Mixer

Diggydoes

Farmer_John said:

Diggydoes said:

I do wonder how Ewok Village will perform once EOL´ed, from a AFOL perspective it´s not really that attractive to me since it´s more of a play, than a display set, on the other hand it´s THE ultimate Endor-set and will most likely never rereleased in a similar form?! I got 3, each for 200€ (RRP is 250€ over here) so i guess i can´t go wrong?! 
I´m reselling pretty much small time so this is a fairly big investment for me :o

Ironically I might be one of the people purchasing an EV from you...if I continue to drag my feet on picking up my own copy. :smile: 

You´re more than welcome! Will mail you the link to my BL-Store in a few months ;)

madforLEGO

Chubbles said:

The fact that the fairgound theme is being expanded I am very bullish on the Mixer

I like the #10244 Fairground Mixer. I would like it far more if it could be found on sale in the US, but cannot. However, I think that will also cause some to not buy it thinking they will find it on sale then POOF it is gone.
I agree if the Ferris Wheel is coming out this year (and the Mixer goes EOL now and not in another year) should make the Mixer more desirable I think. It really is a nice set, and I think most have an issue with the price (and no discounts in the US) and not the set itself (other than maybe lack of baseplate). I just hope if it is like the Mixer, with a bunch of little booths with it, that LEGO starts to put a 48x48 base plate in the next set which would help justify the 149.99 USD price tag IMO.

doriansdad

I just can't get on board with the Mixer. It gives me the same feeling as Joust and Sopwith - not my tempo.

Farmer_John

TheLoneTensor said:

I don't think the Cantina is a no brainer.

Rephrase for clarification: @TheLoneTensor is saying "the Catina is a brainer."

Sometimes those double negatives wrap me around the axle. :wink: 

chuck3221

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't know. The average young girl isn't buying this set. I think it is safe to say, in this instance, that AFOL'S and Resellers make up the majority of sales for Research Institute.

I have two granddaughters 4 and 12 and they both love lego and both want the RI. The 4 year old had a choice of me taking her any where to shop for her birthday and she choose the Lego store. She would have bought everything but I had a limit of $200.

Pitfall69

^That's great. I'm not saying people don't like the set; I am saying that I don't care for the set and neither do my girls. My point is that the majority of the people buying this set are AFOL'S and Resellers and the only reason why this is such a hot item is because of the media hype.

If I took my daughter to the Lego Store (or most children for that matter ) their first pick wouldn't be RI. I would also hazzard a guess that if I lined up every Lego set in the $15-30 range, RI STILL wouldn't be a top pick for ANY child. This is just an inference of course and the only way to prove it is to actually test it :)

Basta

TheLoneTensor said:

Basta said:

Fire Brigade Vs. Town Hall is a good example, there is currently 14 FB's listed on AU eBay and the average asking price is actually less than the 9 TH's listed. There was about a year difference in retirement and by all accounts FB was the more popular Mod. It will be interesting to see the prices in another year. (I realise TH had a higher RRP which probably skews the data a little.)

Are you suggesting that you expect the FB to be higher than the TH?  I think the TH will always go for more than the FB.  The TH was a 33% increase in RRP, so from the start the FB is behind the game (more than just a little).  But, but the bigger factor is that there's just not as many THs in closets as there are FBs, which will always drive their price even higher.

Yes and no, if you were to read back through this thread over the last few years FB is a winner and TH a dog, obviously with the way things have ended up it appears that this is not the case. Although I wouldn't be surprised if in say 5 years FB goes for more than TH (Not saying it will, I just wouldn't be surprised)

My main point was that it is pretty hard to pick a winner just on how "good" or "popular" a set is while in production. These two things obviously give you a good starting point but too many other factors come in to play and it seems that more importantly it is how long a set is out and how quick it disappears.  

Pitfall69

Yes, we were all saying the TH wasn't as popular as most of the other Modulars. I rank it right behind MS as the worst of the Modulars, but that's me. It didn't sell well obviously and it was probably because of the price and because it wasn't as popular as other modulars that were for sale at that time. I understand where you are coming from, but TH is only worth as much as it is now because it retired early. Had it retired in order, I guarantee it wouldn't be selling for what it is today.

novicebuilder101

Do any of you think that Lego might see that the Pet Shop is outselling Palace Cinema and retire PC first? I think lots of people are hoarding PS because it's the next one due to retire.

Pitfall69

^I cannot see PC retiring before Pet Shop. Town Hall was an anomaly. PC has only been out 2 years and Pet Shop has been out for 4 years.

wagnerml2

Pet Shop is the next to EOL...Book it.

Chubbles

Might be time to start grabbing more ghostbusters sets, they announced another film starring Channing Tatum, if they plan on making it a big franchise again I imagine that set will be in high demand.

Pitfall69

This whole thing is interesting. First a female driven "Ghostbusters" reboot, then a new "Ghostbusters" that is part of the original franchise, so essentially Ghostbusters 3.

This may be good or bad for the Ghostbusters Ideas set.

Chubbles

Tatum was great in 21 Jump Street, he's not a very good actor but he's got good comedic timing.  I think it could be good.

jcb193

Or maybe we might see a Fire Brigade redo sooner than we though (granted- with a Ghostbusters sign on the front). 

Farmer_John

chuck3221 said:

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't know. The average young girl isn't buying this set. I think it is safe to say, in this instance, that AFOL'S and Resellers make up the majority of sales for Research Institute.

I have two granddaughters 4 and 12 and they both love lego and both want the RI. The 4 year old had a choice of me taking her any where to shop for her birthday and she choose the Lego store. She would have bought everything but I had a limit of $200.

It's like everything else...just a matter of taste. My eldest daughter loves Lego and really liked the Series 11 Female Scientist. But when I asked her about the RI set (to get as a gift), she wasn't interested. She was really only interested in the Chemist lady; not the astronomer or paleontologist.

While I have a general idea about what Lego products my kids like, it's usually a good idea to get more specifics before actually parting with my cash.

piratemania7

Why oh why oh why oh why are we talking about the RI?????

Pitfall69

^Would you like us to talk about the DS some more?

Pitfall69

Pitfall69

...and there's the elusive 27% off.

Shib

^i can actually imagine the look on your (Jarjar) face when you found a 27% off to screenshot!

Basta

Pitfall69 said:

...and there's the elusive 27% off.

But it's not an exclusive...................... :tongue: 

juddtaylor

Why does everyone keep talking about the PS going EOL. It's already gone, isn't it? AFAIK, there is zero new stock anywhere in the world with it at this point. 

It's already gone.

TheLoneTensor

It's still available on [email protected]  Sure it's got a delay, but it's not sold out yet.

madforLEGO

juddtaylor said:

Why does everyone keep talking about the PS going EOL. It's already gone, isn't it? AFAIK, there is zero new stock anywhere in the world with it at this point. 

It's already gone.

You can sill purchase it from LEGO online, it is not gone. At least not in the US. LEGO typically ends production late in the year so it will likely be around for another few months, but the discounts on exclusives ban in US( I do not think retailers like that and as a result do not carry older mods any longer other than maybe the last two) plus the speculation of EOL equals it being constantly out of stock at LEGO US.

doriansdad

When PS gets ready to go you will see the limit drop to 2 at [email protected] indicating that a shortage is expected. Right now it is in full production. TLG has changed its distribution model so don't expect it to come back in full force to Walmart, Amazon, Target, TRU etc even though it is in full production. Those days are over which makes it difficult to buy alot of volume but also protects secondary market prices. It may go at the end of this year, or it may continue into 2016 and beyond, we do not know yet. I do know I took advantage of Target clearing out its long held stock last week.

mathew

doriansdad said:

When PS gets ready to go you will see the limit drop to 2 at [email protected] indicating that a shortage is expected. Right now it is in full production. TLG has changed its distribution model so don't expect it to come back in full force to Walmart, Amazon, Target, TRU etc even though it is in full production. Those days are over which makes it difficult to buy alot of volume but also protects secondary market prices. It may go at the end of this year, or it may continue into 2016 and beyond, we do not know yet. I do know I took advantage of Target clearing out its long held stock last week.

This guy knows what he's talking about.  I strongly believe that the no-discount policy on exclusives is at least partially meant to protect secondary market prices.  Lego appreciates the secondary market because it adds cachet to the brand.  However if the after market becomes over saturated it can potentially diminish the perceived value of the product. 

pharmjod

@doriansdad not at all disagreeing with you just a question: what makes you think PS is in full production? Have there been any 2015 Seal codes yet? Just curious. I agree with your sentiments I just have no info to indicate it is in production.