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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • ACWWGal2011ACWWGal2011 Member Posts: 534

      "Okay I have a scenario. If you were handed 250$ right now which of the following would be the best investment: Ewok Village, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Detectives Office, or Pet Shop. "

    Out of those, i'd say anything but the DO set. EV, Tumbler, and ToO are licensed with . And PS is a modular which is something that is in demand. I mean seriously take a look at TH and GE, both of which have only been out of commission for like a half year. TH's average new price on BL for sale is already just under 580 and GE is 373 new.

    *Takes a peek at other modular*. omg. Market street average new $2702? CC 2227? Green Grocer 1472??? man I should of bought a few M.S's back in the day. I can't believe I actually said 90 dollars was to much back then!!!

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited March 2015

    When's the next projected double points period?  And are limits on buying one per day, one per month, one per account?  Just curious. 


    Edit: March 14-29. 

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    edited March 2015
    @ACWWGal2011 $90 was too much back then. The set was and is crap. Just because it fetches a premium now doesn't change that. Rarity and lack of any self control and common sense is the only thing that has pushed it up that high.
    Farmer_JohnPitfall69Sethro3dougtsLegoKip
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2015
    pharmjod said:
    @ACWWGal2011 $90 was too much back then. The set was and is crap. Just because it fetches a premium now doesn't change that. Rarity and lack of any self control and common sense is the only thing that has pushed it up that high.
    You're just jealous you didn't buy any  ;)

    But seriously, I don't get the hate for Market St.  It may be ugly to some people.  But consider that it's a MOC that someone was lucky enough to get made into a real Lego set.  And don't tell me that Ideas is the same thing.  The Ideas sets are heavily modified and politicized.  There's no way another Market St. would happen today.  Lego is a gigantic, corporate monolith.  Prepare for more generic Castle and Pirate themes and a crap ton of overpriced, minifig heavy IP based themes with small piece counts.  But I guess that's what the masses want.  Look how popular a goofy theme like Schooby-Doo is here?  Boggles the mind of some AFOL for sure.
    bobabricksVortex
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    I mean seriously take a look at TH and GE, both of which have only been out of commission for like a half year. TH's average new price on BL for sale is already just under 580 and GE is 373 new.
    Hyperbole can be fun, but those numbers just aren't real.  They may be an average of what people are asking for them, but that's now what they are going for.  $400/$250 is more in line with current prices.

    mathew said:
    But seriously, I don't get the hate for Market St.  It may be ugly to some people.
    But consider that it's a MOC that someone was lucky enough to get made into a real Lego set.  And don't tell me that Ideas is the same thing.  The Ideas sets are heavily modified and politicized.  There's no way another Market St. would happen today.

    Market Street is ugly, spartan and looks as if it were made by a 10 year old; that's why the hate.  The only reason it has value is because of its (argued) placement as part of the modular series.  And you're right, there's no way another Market St. would happen because it's ugly, spartan and looks as if it were made by a 10 year old.
    Pitfall69VortexAngel_CSethro3dougtsLegoKip
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,861

    mathew said:
    Look how popular a goofy theme like Schooby-Doo is here?  Boggles the mind of some AFOL for sure.

    I'm usually not surprised when a wacky or silly theme gets popular. After all, LEGO is a toy, and as such the majority of its appeal is with kids and "kids-at-heart". So themes that seem utterly bonkers (Ninjago, Legends of Chima, Mixels, etc) will often appeal to such people's sense of humor. And a theme like Scooby-Doo that's been a part of people's childhoods for decades can have that kind of appeal with many generations of fans.

    Even more "serious" themes like LEGO Star Wars generally take a turn for the sillier when adapted into media like "The Padawan Menace", "The Empire Strikes Out", or even the LEGO Star Wars video games. If these media were just straight adaptations of the Star Wars story in LEGO, they would probably be incredibly boring to many kids and adults. But LEGO has learned through the years that a childlike sense of humor is one of the most powerful tools in their arsenal, and they've made it a part of their DNA.
    timinchicago
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    Market Street is ugly, spartan and looks as if it were made by a 10 year old; that's why the hate.  The only reason it has value is because of its (argued) placement as part of the modular series.  And you're right, there's no way another Market St. would happen because it's ugly, spartan and looks as if it were made by a 10 year old.
    Nah, it's beautiful.  The charm is that it looks like it was created by an average person.  See I have an opinion too.   :*
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2015

    Aanchir said:

    mathew said:
    Look how popular a goofy theme like Schooby-Doo is here?  Boggles the mind of some AFOL for sure.
    But LEGO has learned through the years that a childlike sense of humor is one of the most powerful tools in their arsenal, and they've made it a part of their DNA.
    True, but at the expense of a child's creativity.  There have been zillions of Scooby-Doo toys made over the years.  What really differentiates the Lego sets from all the rest?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Dougout said:
    Oh yea, he also drives around drunk constantly and gives no shits because his cousin is a cop that will protect him if he gets in trouble.
    Do you think the cousin will protect your roommate because he is a cop or his cousin?
    edited by rocao
    Blood is thicker than water, but it's abuses of power handed over by the state and the neglect to correct such corruptions that is troubling.

    Plus the acknowledgement of child abuse that somehow seems to have been removed by a "mod".
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Wow, such hatred for Market Street.  I find it simple and charming and I'm very happy to have one. 
    madforLEGO
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,759
    edited March 2015
    I have to say, of all of the Modulars I've built, Market Street and Cafe Corner were my two favourites.  Market Street just edging ahead I think.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    edited March 2015
    Dougout said:
    Plus the acknowledgement of child abuse that somehow seems to have been removed by a "mod".
    I didn't remove anything about child abuse; I edited out some profanity and a term that was either used in a derogatory fashion or to provide needless context that might be interpreted a such.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    Market Street is not as sophisticated or complex as the official LEGO designed models, but in its defense:
    - It was a user-submitted design through the defunct Factory program which had a very limited part selection
    - Building techniques and the pieces that allow for them have advanced considerably since the time Market Street was made
    - The Factory design probably didn't allow the many techniques and connections. The subsequent official modulars could not have been designed with the tools. 
    bobabricksOdinduskAdeelZubairmadforLEGOSethro3paradisia
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,840
    @rocao I myself never found Market street that bad. It doesn't have any interior, but if it's a MOC, why can't you MOC it a little bit and add your own furniture and details?
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    I got Market Street when I came out. I was happy to sell it a couple of years ago and never look back.
    Pitfall69pharmjodAngel_CSethro3
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited March 2015
    I sold my Market Street for the same reasons as mentioned above. It was too much money for what it was/is. At that time, I was buying everything, so naturally I bought MS, but after it was in hand, I just put it on a shelf. I was also ignorant to the fact that is actually was a modular that went with the theme. Now, I kinda regret selling mine, but I would probably do it again.

    Most of us realize that it was made with limited parts in LDD. This doesn't make it better. If someone tried to sell you a car or house made with limited access to parts and it looked like crap would you buy one?

    I guess it is "charming" *rolls eyes in its own way, but I cannot relate to the type or color of the building, especially living in the US. I'm sure there are colorful buildings like MS in Europe.
    pharmjodSethro3
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,861
    mathew said:

    Aanchir said:

    mathew said:
    Look how popular a goofy theme like Schooby-Doo is here?  Boggles the mind of some AFOL for sure.
    But LEGO has learned through the years that a childlike sense of humor is one of the most powerful tools in their arsenal, and they've made it a part of their DNA.
    True, but at the expense of a child's creativity.  There have been zillions of Scooby-Doo toys made over the years.  What really differentiates the Lego sets from all the rest?
    There have been zillions of toy fire trucks made over the years. What really differentiates the LEGO City sets from all the rest?

    Obviously, the answer to both questions is that LEGO is a building toy, and pieces from LEGO sets can be rebuilt into whatever you can dream up. You want to make your fire truck or Mystery Machine into a helicopter, a hovercraft, or a snowmobile? With the right bricks and some creative thinking, you can!

    What's more, building is not the only type of creative play — storytelling and role-play help to build an entirely different set of creative skills. This is something a lot of online commentators seem to miss when they talk about how "themed sets ruin creativity" and how they wish LEGO would go back to making basic brick buckets only and stop releasing instruction booklets.

    "Story play" can even feed right into building, as it can inspire kids to create new things to fit the stories they dream up. Once you have a LEGO Scooby Doo gang, that can be the perfect inspiration to build new locations and mysteries for them to investigate. The sets just offer a small sample of the many types of situations the characters might end up in.
    Pitfall69TheLoneTensorpharmjodRonyarsidersddLegoKip
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    pharmjod said:
    @ACWWGal2011 $90 was too much back then. The set was and is crap. Just because it fetches a premium now doesn't change that. Rarity and lack of any self control and common sense is the only thing that has pushed it up that high.
    I actually feel the same about Research Institute. I don't find it appealing at all and would NOT want one for my personal collection. The media hype is why this set keeps on getting sold out. My 5 year old daughter has no interest in the set.
    CapnRex101VorpalRyuSethro3dougts
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 923
    I totally agree with the research institute.  It would be different if the figures were all new/set specific but they are just the usual common female characters except for one I believe. 
  • CapnRex101CapnRex101 United KingdomAdministrator Posts: 2,285
    @Pitfall69 - Research Institute is the only set I truly regret buying. I picked one up to keep my Ideas collection up to date and put it straight back in the box after building it. I just don't see the appeal of the models at all.
    Pitfall69
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    The research institute isn't anything special build wise, but it is the presentation of girls in very positive intelligent roles that makes it special and unique in a different way. I think that will give it some demand for a while.
    EKSamrocaogivmellis
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I don't know. The average young girl isn't buying this set. I think it is safe to say, in this instance, that AFOL'S and Resellers make up the majority of sales for Research Institute.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    I got the Research Institute and I also regret buying it but I think I might MOC them up and make them cooler, that dinosaur skeleton was hard to not to pass up on. See what happens when you have the money!
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I don't know. The average young girl isn't buying this set. I think it is safe to say, in this instance, that AFOL'S and Resellers make up the majority of sales for Research Institute.
    Where has the "average" young girl had the opportunity to purchase the set? It has only been available at LEGO stores and online. It is difficult to say exactly what the demand for this set is as it isn't anywhere where families can purchase it on an impulse. It is a relatively limited release (as LEGO goes anyway) so of course it is going to get snatched up by resellers. It is the perfect set for that. Small, fairly cheap, easy to store and easy to ship with a low to 0% chance of ever being redone. All it has to do is hit $49 and you've got a nearl 70% return on your investment. Considering it was going for $100+ in its initial run I think it's a safe bet even with the extra production run they did. 
    Pitfall69Sethro3
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Exactly my point.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    Sorry, I see we were for the most part in agreement then. I actually like the set though. The dinosaur is a great example of creative building and the other scenes are nice as well. I think it would pair well with the Friend's Heartlake High as additional classroom settings even. Or the museum break in could be expanded. My ultimate point though was that it might indeed be a set that appeals to a large(r) number of girls if they actually saw it out in stores. It is difficult to gauge that interest though as the set is currently being sold. I hope it is done and gone though as I have more than several that I'd like to make a decent return on :)
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I don't know. The average young girl isn't buying this set. I think it is safe to say, in this instance, that AFOL'S and Resellers make up the majority of sales for Research Institute.

    The mother of one of my son's friends is a scientist and actually ask me if I knew where she could get this set. This was back when it was first sold out, it was very popular at her work and I managed to get her 3 (From here).

    She loved the fact that it was based around science but also that it showed women in a positive way. So this set was popular in at least some non AFOL/Reseller circles.

    LegoKip
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2015
    Aanchir said:
    There have been zillions of toy fire trucks made over the years. What really differentiates the LEGO City sets from all the rest?

    I'll stop you right there.  Lego City themes do tend to be redundant and thus not very desirable to collectors.

    I chose Scooby Doo because the sets appear to be derivative of other Scooby Doo toys.  Nothing to me stands out as being especially Lego like.  It's a common problem with today's Lego sets which is why you see them pushing the new Classic line in attempt to fend off critics.  
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    @Pitfall69 - Research Institute is the only set I truly regret buying. I picked one up to keep my Ideas collection up to date and put it straight back in the box after building it. I just don't see the appeal of the models at all.
    It's more of an accessory pack.  You get some nice female minifigs, a great dino skeleton and a telescope.  It would be better if there was an actual research institute structure to build with it.  But that would have raised the price and people would still complain.  I've been a vocal critic of this set and I can see why it would leave a Star Wars IP based fan cold.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,581
    ^^ the minifigs look Lego like, and are rather unique to Lego. Most other toys get the proportions more like they are in the cartoons.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    CCC said:
    ^^ the minifigs look Lego like, and are rather unique to Lego. Most other toys get the proportions more like they are in the cartoons.
    Well yeah.  The minifigs look like Lego.  Everything else looks like a Hasbro product with studs.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    pharmjod said:
    Sorry, I see we were for the most part in agreement then. I actually like the set though. The dinosaur is a great example of creative building and the other scenes are nice as well. I think it would pair well with the Friend's Heartlake High as additional classroom settings even. Or the museum break in could be expanded. My ultimate point though was that it might indeed be a set that appeals to a large(r) number of girls if they actually saw it out in stores. It is difficult to gauge that interest though as the set is currently being sold. I hope it is done and gone though as I have more than several that I'd like to make a decent return on :)
    Ok, well...we kinda agree they aren't being sold mostly to young girls, but we differ on the reasons why ;)

    I definitely do not want to get into another long and drawn out discussion about the merits of the Research Institute. I think we have a thread for that :) I will say that my daughters do not need a set like RI to empower them. My 5 year old is self motivated and loves astronomy and science. Their mother is highly successful and their father is all about science and history. I have no doubt that they will do fine whatever they choose as a career :) 

    dougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Amazon had a gold box deal this past Christmas to pick up the entire Scooby Doo Cartoon collection for a decent price (well before the upcoming Lego theme was known by the general public). I decided to go ahead and pick it up out of nostalgia for my wife and me as well as exposing our kids to some of the good old goofy cartoons my generation used to watch as kids. Our kids absolutely enjoyed seeing these old cartoons (as have their parents :smile: )! When I told them TLG was releasing Scooby Doo as a Lego theme, there response was "JINKIES!"

    Before seeing the cartoons, our kids would have probably been ambivalent. Now after actually seeing the cartoons, I think this theme will be a hit for our entire family.
    BACbrixPitfall69VorpalRyu
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    @Farmer_John that is so funny. The three seasons of Scooby-Doo where are you in the mystery machine looking box. I remember that on amazon for like 35$ instead of 70$ . I would have purchased it but I already had one. Scooby-Doo Lego is what will take me into a whole new world of love and nostalgia.
    Farmer_John
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I know I kinda started the RI tangent...sorry ;)

    As far as the Modulars, the TH was an anomaly because it retired out of order and caught many of us off guard. I don't see them going for what people are asking yet. Same with GE, I wouldn't pay anything over $250 for that set right now. Modulars have been decent profit makers, but if you take CC, MS, GG and TH out of the equation, we really only have 2 Modulars to go on and I think there are other sets that one can sink their money into. I think The Tumbler will be a huge winner. Better than Pet Shop or any other modular that might retire within the next 2 years.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited March 2015

    I was just looking at the Town Hall on eBay Australia and in the last 10 days 7 have sold at an average price of $510AUD ($394USD) Shipped.

    With the Tumbler, and any good set for that mater, I think a that the thing that will have the biggest impact on aftermarket pricing will be how long the set has been out and how quick it goes. Less than 2 years and a sudden disappearance would seem to trump a set that may well be more popular to collectors but lingers for ever and plenty of notice of it finally going.

    Fire Brigade Vs. Town Hall is a good example, there is currently 14 FB's listed on AU eBay and the average asking price is actually less than the 9 TH's listed. There was about a year difference in retirement and by all accounts FB was the more popular Mod. It will be interesting to see the prices in another year. (I realise TH had a higher RRP which probably skews the data a little.)

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Actually in Australia I am pretty sure FB and TH had the same RRP of $300AUD. 
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Is Minecraft Crafting Box a good choice for someone who just wants some loose pieces to get started with some small easy MOCs?  Somebody asked me this and I was clueless.  Are there better choices?  I see Amazon's got it for 20% off. 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Okay...going out on a limb here and in the spirit of this thread, my prediction is that the UCS Tumbler will be EOL'd before the end of this year (2015). I don't think it will be gone because it's a bad set (it's one of my favorites), but because it's an anomaly...a one-off...a tip of TLG's hat to AFOLs. But no matter when it is EOL'd, I do appreciate TLG releasing this particular set because (IMO) it shows that they do want to satisfy their older Lego customers.
    pharmjodcloaked7kiki180703
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,905
    I agree with you. I still need to buy my first one :)
    Pitfall69Sethro3
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Me too ;)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    Okay...going out on a limb here and in the spirit of this thread, my prediction is that the UCS Tumbler will be EOL'd before the end of this year (2015). 
    I'll take the over :)
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    tumbler will be gone before the new movie comes out. Tower Bridge will be gone before the summer is over. Pet shop will be before the year is up. Those are my predictions
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,304
    @Pitfall69 - Research Institute is the only set I truly regret buying. I picked one up to keep my Ideas collection up to date and put it straight back in the box after building it. I just don't see the appeal of the models at all.
    I'm in a similar boat with the RI - I picked one up during double VIP points but keep looking at it and thinking 'can I really be bothered to build it?' which is a bad sign. I'm sure I'll enjoy building the Dino, and I do like little vignettes (this years seasonal sets are great fun so far) but as a full set I just keep passing on it to build other stuff.
    bobabricks
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,581
    The good thing about the RI is that it is in a small box. Easy to store for a year and if you still haven't built it, then sell it on.
    bobabrickshoyatablespharmjodmadforLEGOAdeelZubair
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    CCC said:
    The good thing about the RI is that it is in a small box. Easy to store for a year and if you still haven't built it, then sell it on.
    Or gift it. 
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,304
    I did debate about gifting it to a non-fol, but ultimately decided it wasn't likely to hit the right note. For now I'm just going to leave it stacked next to my exosuit and delorean and decide about it later. I do think if the minifigures were more unique I'd probably have opened it instantly.
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,840
    Shib said:
    I do think if the minifigures were more unique I'd probably have opened it instantly.
    There is one exclusive torso so...
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,304
    One exclusive torso which is similar to an existing CMF one so...
    bobabricks
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,581
    CCC said:
    The good thing about the RI is that it is in a small box. Easy to store for a year and if you still haven't built it, then sell it on.
    Or gift it. 
    Not on the reseller thread :-)
    scrumperhoyatablespharmjodAdeelZubair
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