Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

BoiseState

Looks like Lando is worth quite a bit..

mobi

I think at present more people are aware of collecting Lego as investment as ever!

I see there are too many MISB Lego ads in Ebay.

I am buying Legos after a long time. Last I bought some 1994-1997's Technic set off Ebay for very reasonable amount (£36 for 8880, £58 for 8479 etc. - all used sets though).

Some Ebay items are way more expensive than shops - for models which are still available.

I actually dislike people buying Lego just for investment. This prevents lots of other people who actually want to play with the set!

sidersdd

(grabs bag of popcorn)

Farmer_John

I actually dislike people buying Lego just for investment. This prevents lots of other people who actually want to play with the set!

I don't really understand the logic behind this statement...

If a set that sold out was purchased only by people who opened and played with the set, how does that prevent others from buying the set to play with it? It seems to me there would be no sets to buy on the secondary market to play with, so that would prevent "lots of other people who actually want to play with the set" from playing with the set.

People who want to play with the set can buy the set just as easily as the people who purchase it just for investment...the same stores and opportunities are available to us all.

Am I misunderstanding something here?

Farmer_John

(grabs bag of popcorn)

;-)

mobi

Ok, probably I did not explain it.

I guess Lego releases finite number of each sets. Some people just buy sets as soon as they are released. Then they don't play with those themselves. They hoard it just for higher resale value.

Because these sets are snapped from finite supply, the people actually want to play with them (once they are vanished from shops) will not get hold of them unless they are ready to pay over odds (i.e. buy at an inflated price from those who bought it just for the investment).

But I don't know (is there any statistics) what proportion of buyers are like this. If this is a small number then it not an issue. However, if this is a large number, then what I said is quite true.

FatMatt

^ I strongly dissagree with this view/statement. Lego sets are on the shelves for anyone to buy for approx two years give or take. I do not believe that TLG has quota of sets that they make and sell and then are done, but rather they will keep manufacturing more of the same set to meet demand during time that the set is available. So to say that someone "hoarding" sets is preventing others from buying them is ridiulous. If anything, it makes them more available for those who missed them.

$.02

mountebank

And because this can lead to an increase in the total number of any set manufactured, it can actually lead to a depression of prices in the secondary market.

LegoFanTexas

Ok, probably I did not explain it.

I guess Lego releases finite number of each sets.

You have formed an opinion based on a "guess". In fact, your original post was "I dislike people buying Lego for investment".

To quote Thomas Hildern from Fallout: New Vegas, who provided one of my favorite quotes:

"Too many people have opinions on things they know nothing about. And the more ignorant they are, the more opinions they have."

LegoFanTexas

@FatMatt - +1

I agree with what you said, and that is how it works, they said so during the Lego documentary on National Geographic, that they tailor production based on demand. So if one set is selling better than expected, they can quickly produce more of it.

prevere

Cloud City Lando, Jabba and Jango. Jabba will be coming down when the new palace comes out though.

dougts

Sets are widely available on store shelves for a minimum of 6 months, and usually well over a year (with very few notable exceptions). If someone doesn't get to by one, it isn't because resellers bought all the copies.

cloaked7

^ Yup, consider the alternative. All sets are bought by people who build them. No one stores any away or buys any extra. Then, there are those few people think about getting a certain set, but with so many to choose from, or other considerations, they don't get that certain set. Then, all of the sudden it is gone off the shelves. No warning. Nothing from LEGO or anyone else saying 'The production of this set will end on this date.' There are none at WM, none at Target, none at Amazon. And, since no one bought extra, none on eBay or Bricklink. Now, these people can't get that certain set NIB. Ever. Is that better?

BoiseState

Ya, I don't think people doing this hurts anyone. For someone like me who had a 25 year dark period, it's nice to be able to go back and get some of the older sets still in a box if I want. I just bought the HP Castle from 2007, I would have never been able to get it if someone didn't buy it and put it away.

gmpirate

Amazon Falcons at $114 right now. Beats 10% + double VIP. However this will probably not EOL until next year I'm thinking.

richo

I have absolutely no problem with people re-selling. After all, they are taking the risks of buying up sets that in some cases might not go up in value, plus you have the storage to take care of, and most importantly, you have the opportunity cost of the money and what else you could have done with it.

The irony is that secondary market prices would probably be far higher if it were not for re-sellers.

Supply and demand is the cornerstone of most free market economic models...

avoiceoreason

But I don't know (is there any statistics) what proportion of buyers are like this. If this is a small number then it not an issue. However, if this is a large number, then what I said is quite true.

@mobi - I hope you don't feel alienated from the boards because of some of the more direct responses to your comments. This issue of "are re-sellers bad people" comes up every 7 or 8 pages on this thread.

Some people here have very strong opinions on both sides of the argument, but for the most part all of those people have very maturely agreed to disagree and moved on.

But to answer your question quoted above, the percentage of Lego sold to adults, according to TLG itself, remains in the low single digits, so as you said, since it "is a small number ... it is not an issue."

mathew

The resellers take it too personally when someone complains about them. My goodness, you would think that we were the government threatening to take away their guns. Like I tried to clarify earlier, I don't have a problem with someone making money off a long discontinued product. I've done the same thing. It's the resellers that buy up popular items on Amazon and then turn around and flip them for exorbitant amounts way above MSRP. I previously used the Toy Story figures as an example. Amazon should really crack down on this kind of behavior but probably don't have an easy way of doing it.

JP3804

@ sidersdd How's that popcorn holding up? :-)

FatMatt

^:)

FatMatt

@mathew
Hasn't the government already been threatening to take our guns.
(Presuming you live in the US)

LegoFanTexas

.

flip them for exorbitant amounts way above MSRP. I previously used the Toy Story figures as an example.

Your post betrays the truth of your thoughts...

What you're saying is that some resellers, those who do things the way you think they should be done, are "good". Other resellers, who don't do what you think should be done, are "bad".

What difference does it make if it is 10 days or 10 years? A seller is free to price their product at any price they like, and a buyer is free to either buy, or to not buy.

The judgement you display is reflective of the "entitlement" attitude common among some people today, that somehow you're entitled to being protected against things, in this case sellers who are charging more than you think they should. Your comment that Amazon should "do something" about it betrays that.

FatMatt

^"Entitlement", sounds a lot like "Socialism" :)

Dougout

^Does anyone else find it funny that the people that post these kind of anit-reseller posts tend to have just gotten back into lego and most have just signed up to this forum only recently, sometimes hours before their rant? Do you people get mad that you missed your opportunity before your return to lego and everyone else has thus taken advantage while you sat in the dark? As stated before, these resellers are competing only against each other and thus lowering prices on aftermarket products even though it appears they may be rising. We one day may get to a point where sales on aftermarket increase insignificantly (maybe only 50, 25, 10%) just because of the amount of resellers. I'm sure this will also upset those that oppose reselling. Those who oppose reselling act like it is not an option for them. Do you not live in free countries like we do?

mathew

Your post betrays the truth of your thoughts...

Ok Darth Vader ;)

I know that you buy up a lot of sets for resale, but guess what, I am not lumping you in with the "bad" resellers. Again, I'm talking mainly about the guys who buy up popular kids toys, especially around the holidays and then try flipping them for way above retail. These guys don't even care about collecting, they're in it all for profit. Does that make me a socialist? No, it just makes me a guy who cares about being fair minded.

effalcon

I think the key complaint is around those that snap things up @ highly discounted rates, only to list them at RRP moments later on another medium.
resellers have every right to do so, but its a little frustrating for the average collector when the big bargain is sold out because a bunch of people baught 20 at a time.

I'll admit i'm not a resller, and yes i've only just gotten back into lego.
but i'm realistic when it comes to what sets i can get.

Theres good and bad sides to it, and the good sides certainly out weigh the bad.

The resellers get a little over upset over someone complaining about them, this site isnt about taking sides, and everyones opinion is as valid as the next guys, regardless of if they are only recently back into it, or have been for 20 years.

if you like a set enough, pay RRP for it.
if you're waiting for it to be discounted, then you run the same risk resellers do.

Dad

^^ The only ' bad ' reseller is one who is selling products not as described. The guys you are talking about 'who buy up popular kids toys, especially around the holidays and then try flipping them for way above retail' have more than likely purchased them long before the holidays after using their judgement to take a calculated risk on what they believe will be the popular kids toy. They will win some and lose some.

FatMatt

While we are on the subject, how about all those "bad" stock holders that buy up stock for a low cost and resell it for much more years in the future. :) And before you try to say that is any different, it isn't. Same method, different means.

richo

^^ true.

I am not a reseller either, but the main criticisms that are levelled at resellers, i.e. target holiday periods for increased sales etc, isn't that what all good retailers do? lol

effalcon

its just business, can't blame em for making a buck.
its just frustrating for the average collector who is trying to buy for the enjoyment of lego, not the investment.

as said, theres a bunch of benefits to what these people do too

sidersdd

@ sidersdd How's that popcorn holding up? :-)

(munch, munch) I'm on my second bag.

I think I know where Mathew is going with his argument. The Lego Super Hero sets are probably a good example. They were released right before Xmas, and were quickly consumed (by both normal consumers and by resellers). The Funhouse in particular was a rare set to find. Resellers sold these sets for high amounts leading up to Xmas day. I'm not saying it was right or wrong, or who is to "blame" for retailers not having a copy of this set for every single person who wanted/needed/deserved it, but I think that's an example Mathew is frustrated with.

LegoFanTexas

Your post betrays the truth of your thoughts...

Ok Darth Vader ;)

I know that you buy up a lot of sets for resale, but guess what, I am not lumping you in with the "bad" resellers. Again, I'm talking mainly about the guys who buy up popular kids toys, especially around the holidays and then try flipping them for way above retail. These guys don't even care about collecting, they're in it all for profit. Does that make me a socialist? No, it just makes me a guy who cares about being fair minded.

Thank you, Darth Vader is and always has been my favorite... :)

I will say that I understand your point, however may I suggest that point is colored by you being a fan and collector of Lego?

In my real life job, where I earn most of my money, I have no love or passion for the stuff I sell, they are just widgets (computer equipment, if you're curious). I'm sure if I went onto a computer geek forum and talked about the latest Intel Processor like it was just a pile of plastic and wires to make money on, I'd get flamed there too. :)

So consider that a reseller who has no love for Lego, or any toy, who is just flipping them for profit, is just making a living like everyone else. They actually have a term for such a person (I'm one of them), it is called a Yankee Trader:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee_traders

Basically such a person makes money because someone, somewhere, wants something, and doesn't know where to go find it. The ultimate buyer could, if he/she wished, probably could get the same deal the reseller did, but for whatever reason, doesn't.

Just some food for thought.

LegoFanTexas

I think I know where Mathew is going with his argument. The Lego Super Hero sets are probably a good example. They were released right before Xmas, and were quickly consumed (by both normal consumers and by resellers). The Funhouse in particular was a rare set to find. Resellers sold these sets for high amounts leading up to Xmas day. I'm not saying it was right or wrong, or who is to "blame" for retailers not having a copy of this set for every single person who wanted/needed/deserved it, but I think that's an example Mathew is frustrated with.

I do understand that... Same thing happens on Black Friday deals... Look at 5512, that set was for sale for $30 at Walmart on Black Friday, and there were plenty of them. They lasted for hours at some locations...

Yet today, they are going for $100 and up... Even the next day, they were $50 online and quickly rose to $70, where I sold most of my copies of the set. So who's fault is that? Walmart, for not "giving away" a set to everyone who wanted one? The consumer for not getting out of the house at midnight on Thanksgiving Day to go fight Walmart traffic? My fault for doing so, buying up 20 of them, and wanting to make something for my efforts? Or perhaps no one's fault... That is just a free market at work...

Farmer_John

There are some of us who purchase and resell to support our lego hobby too. If I can buy three sets and sell to to break even on the three I purchased, then I'm happy. For me personally, I only sell EOL'd sets when I do sell. I've never thought about selling sets that are already for sale from TLG because that is a much more difficult thing to do and make money in my opinion.

Dad

^ ^And I understand the frustration too. But people seem to be ok with BandM stores selling items at a profit, but as soon as ' the man in the street' sees an opening then it sometimes becomes frowned upon.
I also sometimes buy items with my daughters money. Not just Lego, anything I judge to have a profit in it. She is 3. She has probably got 40% more money in the bank than she would have had did I not do this. I have a responsibility as her Father to do whatever I can to ensure she gets the best start in life. Period. Who knows what the future holds?
But I must also add that I would never have a trolley full of discounted Lego and leave some dissapointed kid stood there because I have just had the lot. His pleasure is more important. But if that kid is dissapointed because his parents thought they could just go out the week before Christmas and buy him the item he has been asking for since September, then as unfortunate as that is, it is not for me to worry about.

Dougout

^Well said @Dad.

gmpirate

Was not even aware about Walmart's 5512 Black Friday deal as I was not buying at the time. Think I found about 6 of those for $15 late January.

LegoFanTexas

Was not even aware about Walmart's 5512 Black Friday deal as I was not buying at the time. Think I found about 6 of those for $15 late January.

$15 for that set is a screaming deal... :)

1265

I have a modest collection and do see the positive and negative side of resellers. Resellers provide a product to those who didn't purchase and/or wasn't around at the time to do so. It's their right to prosper and make a living of a product that some might see as wrong or taking advantage of the system. In most of the cases, many had the opportunity to purchase before the rise in price.

However, I do dislike the blatant self-centered attitude of some of the resellers.

pumperx

Found a couple earth dragon defense for $25. Is that a good deal?

FatMatt

^ Yes, I would buy them.

gmpirate

I have a modest collection and do see the positive and negative side of resellers. Resellers provide a product to those who didn't purchase and/or wasn't around at the time to do so. It's their right to prosper and make a living of a product that some might see as wrong or taking advantage of the system. In most of the cases, many had the opportunity to purchase before the rise in price.

However, I do dislike the blatant self-centered attitude of some of the resellers.

Lol, oh man. Good chuckle on that one.

gmpirate

@pumperx You'll have to hold it for a while as that is the selling price right now. Ninjago is very popular unexpectedly for Lego. Was talking to a manager the other day who said the tv cartoon is highly rated -- 4 or 5. Clone Wars only gets a 2 or 3.

Big draw of 2509 is that it is a dragon which they aren't making anymore in the line. However, I believe there is a new dragon coming out later this year in a big set. Could be like the skeleton faction from Castle a few years ago. Skeletons were phased out in favor of the trolls which made them skyrocket in price.

FatMatt

@gmpirate
2509 is already selling between $45-$55 on ebay. I am not sure where you are getting that it is selling at $25 right now.

@pumperx
I would definitely buy them at $25.

gmpirate

Oh my bad. Ebay was set to "lowest price" instead of "recent".

pumperx

@FatMatt and @gmpiraye Awesome, thanks for your advice, I will go pick it up tomorrow.

pumperx

Oops, i mean @gmpirate

y2josh

And just like that, Amazon has (apparently) received another horde of Diagon Alleys.

prevere

Heard that Lego watches are all the rage a school around here in Ohio. Noticed on Target they are selling for $20 w/ a minifig (Darth Maul) sold out; and $30 watches that almost remind me of the Swatch craze from the 80s.

Just an interesting observation.

Farmer_John

Okay...I realize that lego just released the UCS SSD roughly 6 months ago, but does anyone have any thoughts on how long it will be out? I have no idea how this product is performing, but my gut instinct tells me it isn't doing that well. Unlike the DS, it isn't that playable and I've heard the build is pretty monotonous. And with a price tag of $400 (= 1 death star, = 2 THs, = 1.5 IS, etc.), how many people are snapping it up? Finally, other more popular UCS SW sets are going to be released this year (R2-D2 and B-Wing) that will further cannibalize sales of the SSD.

Conversely, the UCS Obi-Wan Starfighter has been out awhile and it's not that popular either (but it is 4 times more affordable).

So a few questions:

1) Who has purchased this set?
2) What are their thoughts regarding this set (is my analysis off-base)?
3) What is the probability of this set being EOL'd before the end of this year?

I just don't see it being available as long a period as the other UCS SW sets...