Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

ourmoneydiary

I've slowly shifted toward larger sets for reselling purposes only because it's less hassle for me.  If I could make $10 selling five small sets or $50 selling one large set, I would opt for the larger set, even if it means that I have to wait a little longer for it to hit that $50 point.  But maybe it's because I only resell to support my hobby...

Basta

@Pitfall69 I never seem to get 27% off exclusives. 25% or 28% yes, I even got a SOH at 50% off recently but that 27% eludes me ;)

Brickarmor

With Arkham just retired, it "feels" too soon to start in on the Tumbler. I'll keep my stack short until something in the air actually carries a whiff of EOL.

Farmer_John

^Frankly, I'm more nervous about the SHIELD Helicarrier #76042 and the UCS Tumbler #76023 being EOL'd than I am of any modular, SOH or UCS Star Wars set. Both of these sets almost seem like a market test to me, and interestingly enough both only allow a single set to be purchased online (and likely in stores). In short, they are major question marks because they don't fit into the typical Lego set's mold (no pun intended), and I think we'll get very little warning when they go away.

pharmjod

@Farmer_John You may be correct there. Will be interesting to keep an eye on.

VorpalRyu

@Farmer_John, I'm starting to suspect that EOL for both will likely be sudden with little announcement, or none. Wouldn't be surprised if both are gone before xmas, but I'm thinking that its more likely TLG keep them around until just after xmas.

TheLoneTensor

With the amount of R&D that had to have gone into the Helicarrier, I would be surprised to see it go soon.  The only way I see that happening is if they commissioned it only to be a flagship marketing loss leader.  That's possible I suppose.

cloaked7

Was the Tumbler magically out of stock during the last double points event?  And, then back in stock after the event finished?

Sethro3

Can't LEGO just keep ALL of their sets available forever? :smile:  It'd help out casual buyers with no money hehe...

rocao

cloaked7 said:

Was the Tumbler magically out of stock during the last double points event?  And, then back in stock after the event finished?

I don't think LBR plays those type of games. If they wanted to exclude a set from a promotion, I imagine that they would just make it an exclusion.

Keep in mind that a lot of customers aren't registered VIPs participating in the points program so they'd still want to stock what they can sell. There isn't anything mythical or more valuable about the revenue dollars derived from the Tumbler.

VorpalRyu

@TheLoneTensor I guess it would depend greatly on how many sets have sold, versus how many need to sell to make their magical profit target TLG are aiming for. For all any of us know, they could have already made that number, then again, they might not have gotten even 10% of it at this point. If it vanishes before the year is out, I think we can draw one of two conclusions, a.) It was not as big a seller as TLG was expecting & they're cutting their losses, or b.) They made/exceeded their target & they don't want flog a dead horse...

pharmjod

Que the dead LEGO horse beating .jpg in 3...2...1....

Farmer_John

cloaked7 said:

Was the Tumbler magically out of stock during the last double points event?  And, then back in stock after the event finished?

Good point! I believe the Tumbler was out of stock through [email protected] for the October 2014 double VIP sale, but it was available in the Lego Stores. It didn't become available again through [email protected] until January 2015. I would expect no less for the Tumbler and the SHIELD Helicarrier for this round of double VIP points. There seems to be a concerted effort by TLG to limit the sales of those particular sets to one per customer based on all the ordering constraints. It's what I would do if I wanted to spread the sets around.

Farmer_John

VorpalRyu said:

@TheLoneTensor I guess it would depend greatly on how many sets have sold, versus how many need to sell to make their magical profit target TLG are aiming for. For all any of us know, they could have already made that number, then again, they might not have gotten even 10% of it at this point. If it vanishes before the year is out, I think we can draw one of two conclusions, a.) It was not as big a seller as TLG was expecting & they're cutting their losses, or b.) They made/exceeded their target & they don't want flog a dead horse...

Or C) they want to use their production bandwidth for something they perceive will be more profitable...such as another Chima set. :wink: 

TheLoneTensor

Farmer_John said:

Or C) they want to use their production bandwidth for something they perceive will be more profitable...such as another Chima set. :wink: 

True, there's no such thing as too many speedorsmuch packing material for S&H orders.

ACWWGal2011

I need some insight on something. When it comes to the minecraft stuff(the stuff that's currently out, not upcoming), does anyone have any predictions on when it could go EOL? Is there a chance it could live along side wave 2 for a while or would it be a case of once wave 2 comes, wave 1 vanishes?

I'm asking since i'm in a bit of a jam.  Am interested in one of 2 Minecraft purchase options, 1) The mine w/ a maybe on buying a cave(would be cave 2 for me) or 2)

) buying a crafting box w/ a maybe on a cave. Wish i could do option 3 of mine AND box but the problem is that option would wipe out my entire hobby budget PLUS i'd have to borrow a few bucks from mom to cover tax.

Problem is i don't know if wave one has much Shelf life yet so i'm asking for ya'll opinion on that. And if it'd go EOL, which one would be worse to buy on the aftermarket?

While i could see EOL time going either way and i know i should be aware of that, I'm stuck on the second part since i know from reading here and from other sources that licensed stuff is a real pain for post market for buyers and it seems like both mine and crafting could go that way. Cave also seems like a strong option also since it could add on to the mine so that's part of the reason i'm debating on a second one.

The Mine has Steve, zombie, creeper, skelton guy, and a cool spider. And it's a very rich source of jumpers, modified 1x1 w/ handles, grooves, 4 8x16 plates, 2x bricks, and even trans blue which are valuable.

However, the crafting box also has steve and a skeloton but has an exclusive "mooshroom" cow thingyit's got a variety of colors, jumpers, sizes, is a multioption build(8-in-1 WITH inspiration included for 10 more), and would be a strong pull for not only those who love legos and/or free-building in minecraft but also people that want to buy a set for others but don't want a single build thing

 

novicebuilder101

^ It's very common for two waves of a theme to be available at the same time. I think that Minecraft will be no different. There is the possibility of one or two sets of the current wave to sell out. I think the crafting box might be the one to pickup since it seems like a very popular set. I think lots of people are doing what you're thinking. Picking up First Night or a Cave set and buying the Crafting Box to create their own playsets.

mathew

I wonder how well the minifig scale Minecraft sets are doing. My son is a big Minecraft fan, but he's shown little to no interest in them. Minecraft is very much a community based game and I think kids like that aspect over the individual building experience of the sets. Just an observation. The micro builds seem to have been much more popular maybe because they are more less shelf displays.

prevere

madforLEGO said:

mooman66 said:

I noticed #60064 Arctic Supply Plane popped up earlier in the thread, but no real follow up.  It's already selling for $90-$100 shipped on eBay and $75-$80 shipped on BL.  What's the history on City sets with limited availability and a a short run?  I don't have the patience (or the credit) for a long term investment, but could certainly hold on until Christmas.

Yeah I think I mentioned it actually :smile:. Surprising that it is gone already, wonder if it was an exclusive to Target or something. LEGO has done this before in the Mine theme with the dump truck. Gone fairly quickly, but the rest of the line stuck around for another 2 years.
It does stink for those who want to complete the collection of a theme though. IMO It is one thing if a theme line ends, but another if one set from the theme goes out so fast while the rest of the theme is available for sale.

Still frustrated that NONE of the new arctic series came with a 4x1x3 orange tail. Trying to finish my Shinkai 6500 Submarine and that part is practically impossible to get.

CCC

^^ That is what many people (me included) thought about the original set. And we were obviously wrong.

I'm not so sure now though, as there have been so many minecraft sets in a short time. Maybe kids have had enough if them.

TheLoneTensor

Not mine, sheesh.

scotty12

^ My niece and nephew have..and so have many of their friends.  It was ridiculous 3-4months ago...they'd all sit around with their IPads asking either other to join them in their world....now, none of them play it.  Which stinks because I had a few sets of Minecraft put away for Easter presents.  Now it's a game called Growtopia or something.

  What becomes of Minecraft in a few years if it's no longer a popular game?  Are they going to increase some in value or are we going to look back and say 'What were we thinking?'

Aanchir

scotty12 said:

^ My niece and nephew have..and so have many of their friends.  It was ridiculous 3-4months ago...they'd all sit around with their IPads asking either other to join them in their world....now, none of them play it.  Which stinks because I had a few sets of Minecraft put away for Easter presents.  Now it's a game called Growtopia or something.

  What becomes of Minecraft in a few years if it's no longer a popular game?  Are they going to increase some in value or are we going to look back and say 'What were we thinking?'

Well, just look at how much nostalgia there still is for old-school video games like Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, Mega Man, and Super Mario Bros. Now of course, if Minecraft does become less popular, it might still be a long time before people are that nostalgic for it (and those brands have all been helped by the characters' subsequent video game appearances), but I think Minecraft has been a HUGE part of this generation's video gaming experience, and that's going to give those sets a lot of value once fans start seeking to revisit their childhoods.

So short term, the Minecraft sets' value will probably be a bit volatile (same as with any other "craze"). Long term, though, I think they and other Minecraft official merchandise will have a lot of value to collectors.

One thing that could hurt the potential future value is how crazy popular the brand is right now. Sets that sell like hotcakes when they're new can plummet in value in the secondary market once kids grow out of them and unload their collections. That's sort of what's happened with old-school BIONICLE.

By contrast, the Avatar: The Last Airbender sets from 2006 sold pitifully as I understand things, but the lingering love for the brand and its characters has led to sets and individual minifigures selling for pretty substantial sums.

pharmjod

I know personally I'm not in the game to hold a set for 10-15 years while the current group of ADHD kids hopefully feels nostalgia. Sell those while they are hot and move on.

Pitfall69

^Word son.

Pitfall69

I don't think I would buy any Donkey Kong or Pac Man sets if Lego ever made any. I loved those games as a kid, but that is where it ends for me.

BACbrix

Okay I have a scenario. If you were handed 250$ right now which of the following would be the best investment: Ewok Village, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Detectives Office, or Pet Shop.

Chang405

^Tower and pet shop are most likely to go sooner rather than later.

Farmer_John

^I agree. The ToO is overripe for EOL, and either the PS or EV will likely be gone soon as well.

pharmjod

I will also add this to my previous comment: I'm not convinced this current younger generation is going to have anywhere near the disposable income of the ones currently buying LEGO when they "grow up". Yet another reason I won't hold anything past 2-4 years tops.

Pitfall69

^This is an interesting perspective. Studies have shown that high school graduates today are very materialistic, yet they don't know how they are going to afford the things they want. Lego is obviously a luxury, but people are still buying the things they want, even if they don't have the money for it. It seems that people didn't learn from the financial collapse that happened almost a decade ago. This is actually good news for us...for now. I have a friend that doesn't have a job, yet he spends tons of money on video games and Funko Pop figures.

VorpalRyu

Pitfall69 said:

I don't think I would buy any Donkey Kong or Pac Man sets if Lego ever made any. I loved those games as a kid, but that is where it ends for me.

DK & Pac, I'd agree... If TLG got any Nintendo licences, Metroid, Mario & Zelda would fare better than DK... Personally, I'd want some Metroid & Zelda stuff...

Shib

Shame that k'nex have the licence for mario, mario kart and pacman, makes it seem less likely that any nintendo IPs will go to Lego while the k'nex deal is in place.

CCC

I didn't actually mean minecraft the game being out of favour, but the sets. Have kids realised that they cannot actually play minecraft in real life with bricks like they can online. Sure they can build with bricks, but it is quite different with Lego. The kid over the road to us loves minecraft and Lego, but hates the minecraft Lego sets. He complains that you cannot do minecraft with them. You build them and that's it.

prevere

I have a feeling in the next decade you might see a set where electronic bricks interact with each other when connected, or something like that. There was an article posted here about 2 years ago about Lego doing R&D with Sony on something like that.

pharmjod

Pitfall69 said:

This is actually good news for us...for now. I have a friend that doesn't have a job, yet he spends tons of money on video games and Funko Pop figures.

It's the for now part that worries me there. Exactly WHOSE money is he spending? :/

charlatan13

pharmjod said:

Pitfall69 said:

This is actually good news for us...for now. I have a friend that doesn't have a job, yet he spends tons of money on video games and Funko Pop figures.

It's the for now part that worries me there. Exactly WHOSE money is he spending? :/

I would imagine that the purchases are financed via credit.  I'm somewhat surprised that Lego doesn't have some sort of credit card exclusive to the store.  Imagine replacing the VIP card with a 3x rewards for Lego purchases in addition to an early purchase window. Dangerous indeed!

Dougout

^^Probably mine after the state gave it to them.  I just moved to an awesome apartment, but at my old one I had two roommates (one which I knew since I was little) that don't work 3-4 months out of the year because their job closes for winter.  For the past 3 months all I've heard is constant video games with parties of people in the room.  Wish the state would pay me to be an ....  Oh no I gotta pay my way, $60,000, through school and then pay off the debt on top manifesting outta thin air.  YAAAAAY!!
Oh yea, he also drives around drunk constantly and gives no .... because his cousin is a cop that will protect him if he gets in trouble.
edited by rocao

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

^This is an interesting perspective. Studies have shown that high school graduates today are very materialistic, yet they don't know how they are going to afford the things they want. Lego is obviously a luxury, but people are still buying the things they want, even if they don't have the money for it. It seems that people didn't learn from the financial collapse that happened almost a decade ago. This is actually good news for us...for now. I have a friend that doesn't have a job, yet he spends tons of money on video games and Funko Pop figures.

Forget about the US consumer. China is full of up and comers and from early indications they love Lego. I get more and more orders from them every month. They have plenty of money to spend after hawking thousands of fake minifigs to US buyers.

pharmjod

Fair point @doriansdad :) do you use eBay global shipping for China or are you shopping yourself?

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

I will also add this to my previous comment: I'm not convinced this current younger generation is going to have anywhere near the disposable income of the ones currently buying LEGO when they "grow up". Yet another reason I won't hold anything past 2-4 years tops.

Pitfall69 said:

^This is an interesting perspective. Studies have shown that high school graduates today are very materialistic, yet they don't know how they are going to afford the things they want. Lego is obviously a luxury, but people are still buying the things they want, even if they don't have the money for it. It seems that people didn't learn from the financial collapse that happened almost a decade ago. This is actually good news for us...for now. I have a friend that doesn't have a job, yet he spends tons of money on video games and Funko Pop figures.

I'm not worried. People forget that the US economy focuses on the middle class and the use of ( a lot of) credit (to those in the US: ever notice how many credit cards applications you get in the mail?). The younger generations reportedly are swearing off cards completely, which is easy to say when you live at home-or have roommates. I doubt we will see spending go down dramatically once those people get into the real world as many are likely spoiled and will want to stay that way, damn the cost. Despite China's economy growing. I think the global economy needs the US economy to be somewhat 'healthy' as we are the only ones stupid enough to over pay for luxury items we do not need and companies realize that.
IMO China's economy is a house of cards. Hoping that they do not have any slowdown because if they do, with the amount of debt they have taken on, it could wreck the world economy. This can occur once the workers of China get tired of making 5 cents an hour to assemble a 600 dollar iPhone. Once these workers start getting smarter and start fighting harder for better wages (which I believe they are starting to do now) then you will see companies moving out of China for the next place with cheap labor and no concept of what good pay and benefits are. Once that happens, bye bye China Economy.

doriansdad

pharmjod said:

Fair point @doriansdad do you use eBay global shipping for China or are you shopping yourself?

I have only had a handful of global shipping orders to china, the rest go to reshippers. Just got my invite to 11main so hoping for the Jack Ma hookup down the line - that is when the real money will be made.

Farmer_John

^Okay...Please "Splain" Lucy! (in my best Ricky Ricardo voice)

Pitfall69

Jack Ma is one of the richest people in the world and is Chinese. 11main.com is another Ebay/Amazon, but tied to China.

doriansdad

11main is the USA website owned by Alibaba and Jack Ma. It is their first entry into the US market. I believe they will eventually develop a website that will allow Chinese consumers to purchase from US sellers with a familiar interface. I don't think Ma is interested one bit in buying eBay. Checkout the documentary "Crocodile in the Yangtze" if you get a chance, if only to see how Meg Whitman and eBay got their behinds handed to them by Ma.

madforLEGO

doriansdad said:

11main is the USA website owned by Alibaba and Jack Ma. It is their first entry into the US market. I believe they will eventually develop a website that will allow Chinese consumers to purchase from US sellers with a familiar interface. I don't think Ma is interested one bit in buying eBay. Checkout the documentary "Crocodile in the Yangtze" if you get a chance, if only to see how Meg Whitman and eBay got their behinds handed to them by Ma.

Based on what I have heard, I think Ma is powerful only as long as the Chinese government allows him to be. He part of the house of cards IMO. His stock in the free world based on speculation that he is playing nice with the Chinese Govt AND that the Chinese and US govt do not decide one day to loosen restrictions for trade to China.
He is this successful because of the Chinese government not allowing every company to run into China and make money, not without heavy stipulations anyway. They bottleneck everything and as it happens it is through Ma right now. If that ever changes his will be the first company to crash and burn IMO.

ACWWGal2011

  "Okay I have a scenario. If you were handed 250$ right now which of the following would be the best investment: Ewok Village, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Detectives Office, or Pet Shop. "

Out of those, i'd say anything but the DO set. EV, Tumbler, and ToO are licensed with . And PS is a modular which is something that is in demand. I mean seriously take a look at TH and GE, both of which have only been out of commission for like a half year. TH's average new price on BL for sale is already just under 580 and GE is 373 new.

*Takes a peek at other modular*. omg. Market street average new $2702? CC 2227? Green Grocer 1472??? man I should of bought a few M.S's back in the day. I can't believe I actually said 90 dollars was to much back then!!!

jcb193

When's the next projected double points period?  And are limits on buying one per day, one per month, one per account?  Just curious. 

Edit: March 14-29. 

pharmjod

@ACWWGal2011 $90 was too much back then. The set was and is crap. Just because it fetches a premium now doesn't change that. Rarity and lack of any self control and common sense is the only thing that has pushed it up that high.