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"Do my points ever expire?
Yes, all VIP Points expire on December 31st two years after the year in which they were earned. Before this happens, the LEGO® Group will notify you via the email address you provided during registration."
Personally I think Olivia's house is a better set. It could relatively easily be had for $40-$50 very often. I got most of mine for an average price of around $37ish. I think by Christmas this year it could easily be fetching $100+ which after fees and shipping is about double my money. I'm great with that.
Will it ever be a $200 set? Maybe. I won't be keeping them long enough to find out.
Well they are certainly worth it if in the US, exclusives are not on sale in the US, so when I buy something like a Mod or creator set that is an 'exclusive', I tend to buy it from LEGO so I at least get SOMETHING back on the purchase, so if anything VIP points are more useful in the US IMO.
Ewok Village
Parisian Restaurant
Detective Agency
Slave 1
Sand Crawler
Shield Helicarrier
and perhaps a Sydney Opera House
But that's it!
The real question you should have asked is: "How are you going to sneak the sets you get when double VIP points comes around into the house?" :wink:
The #70727 looks uninspiring to me. It's only been out since May and is already on its way out. I seem them at Target for 30% off and they may go to 50% off. Demand for them has appeared weak since day one. This is a very mature theme and the green box 2013 stuff was way over-produced. The item you're asking about never went out of stock at Amazon during the Christmas holidays, and that's not a good sign. Could it be a sleeper? The next Cole's Tread Assault? I wouldn't bet any money on it.
But I would guess it is more of a playset than a collectible, that could perhaps affect the price?
Numbers always work better than anecdotal opinions, so here's a hypothetical model. For simplification, this doesn't take sales tax, shipping, personal time, gift card discounts or credit card reward points into consideration. It also assumes that the VIP points (which normally would be cashed in later) are reflected as a straight discount on the original price, equal to $5 per VIPx for every $100.
Set: Tumbler
RRP: $200
Resell for: $400
Personal taxes: 20%
Going from 1x to 2x VIP points increases the return on your original investment by 8%, which by itself is better than most investment APRs out there. Sell it for $600, and your return increases by 11.9%.
I did this quickly, please check my numbers :)
I will maybe get it this month for double points or wait until Smyths gets it on sale around October.
The only set I'm currently considering is Ewok Village and I'm tempted to wait for May 4th on that. I'd like to wait and see if October brings triple VIP points, but that's a risk probably not worth $12.50.
It's scary to me to think about how much everyone assumes it's a sure bet. All this talk is pretty much assuring it gets hoarded heavily.
Personally, I like friends sets as players for my kids, more than most, but I just can't see a collectors market for it. For everything that has retired Lego has put something else out that fills the same role. You can count on not having anything that your non-collector won't be willing to pay more for than Lego's current offerings. Also, the tall bricks they use for the walls have a tendency to split really easy at the base :(
The perfect collector's storm would be if TLG made sure each ideas set had some unique pieces. They do great aftermarket, but they always have to fight the fact that they can be easily bricklinked. I just bricklinked the curiosity rover for like $30. The unique parts would get rid of a lot of the bricklink competition.
I do strongly believe that if the Tumbler is EOL'd without notice, it will hit $500 within a few months!
Im guessing this is going to occur with Death Star and likely Tower Bridge. At least the DS has Star Wars appeal, especially with the new movies coming out.
That's called the Exo-Suit Effect. :)
That is the fun of this. A licensed set such as Ewok Village will surely do well, as will Tumbler. The questions become: when will it retire, how much will the value increase, and how fast?
To me, this is why I buy so few sets now. I'd hate to "miss out" on the Simpson's House, Tumbler, Ewok Village, Tower Bridge, Opera House, Death Star, Mini Cooper, Tower of Orthanc, The Mixer and so so so so so many others. I just don't have the room to appreciate them, and have concluded that the time/return in reselling just isn't there for me personally.
When tumblers started becoming available online for purchase, I could believe that a lot went to resellers. But it quickly became obvious that enough would be available that the quick flip model wasn't going to yield good results.
#10227 is another example, but that was also available at 50% off to help mitigate the low resale
The first set that comes to mind for me is the #10227 UCS B-Wing. Also, I'm not expecting the #9398 4x4 Crawler to do too well over time either...
I would hazard to say that #8110 is a bit of a dog right now. While it is selling for over its RRP, it is not much over RRP and if you take in fees and what not it is not doing great. now, another year, maybe it will.
#41999 is another example I think but is making money, but not as much I think that warrants paying that much for a set to sit one IMO.
Another is #7939, but that is a bit of a cheat as it was on sale a lot during its run and another train is out as well.
Exclusives $200+ (even $150+) are not what I would define as a gamble.
I don't mess with Technic for resale because it is a niche theme much like Bionicle. Prices on #41999 have actually fallen a bit. I know one sold for $450 USD not too long ago, but most are selling below $400 USD. I wonder how that guy did that bought everyone's #41999 to corner the market?
As I said in another thread; the UCS Imperial Shuttle was a bit of a disappointment, but there might be a bit left in her once the new movie comes out. Right now I'm flying casual with this set ;)
At least that's what I heard on this thread... :wink:
Now if I'd have paid RRP that would be a very different story and I'd probably agree with you!
I'm talking from a UK POV though too