Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Shpadoinkle

Be mindful that the VIP points do expire.  After two years I believe.

rocao

^ Keep in mind the following:
  
"Do my points ever expire?

Yes, all VIP Points expire on December 31st two years after the year in which they were earned. Before this happens, the LEGO® Group will notify you via the email address you provided during registration."

BACbrix

Honetsly, double points isnt a huge help. I mean it is great if you were going to buy the sets from LegoLego.com anyways but still does not seem worth it. Especially when tax takes some out. Idk...

pharmjod

Pitfall69 said:

I was wondering; do you guys remember a few years ago when Friends came out that everyone was saying Olivia's House was going to be a sure winner? Is there ANY Friends sets that will do very well in the Aftermarket?

Define "very well"? Again, depending on entry price you can do well with all of them. Olivia's house was out for not quite 3 years. It has only been "gone" for a short time now. It is selling for MSRP roughly with free shipping. That is with the current #41095 out which sells for the same price.

Personally I think Olivia's house is a better set. It could relatively easily be had for $40-$50 very often. I got most of mine for an average price of around $37ish. I think by Christmas this year it could easily be fetching $100+ which after fees and shipping is about double my money. I'm great with that.

Will it ever be a $200 set? Maybe. I won't be keeping them long enough to find out.

madforLEGO

BACbrix said:

Honetsly, double points isnt a huge help. I mean it is great if you were going to buy the sets from LegoLego.com anyways but still does not seem worth it. Especially when tax takes some out. Idk...

Well they are certainly worth it if in the US, exclusives are not on sale in the US, so when I buy something like a Mod or creator set that is an 'exclusive', I tend to buy it from LEGO so I at least get SOMETHING back on the purchase, so if anything VIP points are more useful in the US IMO.

Farmer_John

brickupdate said:

So what are all of you buying when double VIP points come around?

My current list is:

Ewok Village
Parisian Restaurant
Detective Agency
Slave 1
Sand Crawler
Shield Helicarrier
and perhaps a Sydney Opera House

But that's it!

The real question you should have asked is: "How are you going to sneak the sets you get when double VIP points comes around into the house?" :wink: 

Odindusk

My takeaway from reading the last several pages of this thread.

LegoTT

I think nice been convinced to buy and keep the Tumbler! I've started to realize that I prefer modulars for display- these big ships and stuff just don't do much for me.

Ronyar

The early friends sets have done relatively well (stable, vet, horse trailer). I do think there is the possibility that some sets will suffer from being too similar to new sets, but they are being so much more creative with new themes, such as the jungle rescue and pop star upcoming sets, that I think there will be a lot of opportunity to find winners. Especially if some resellers stay biased against mini dolls and don't stock up on them!

juggles7

scotty12 said:

I haven't had a problem selling any extra Friends sets.  I don't hesitate normally at 30-50% off.  I found a bunch of #3188 Heartlake Vets(rrp $44.99) just before they retired about 15months ago.  There were selling for $140+ around X-Mas. 

I know this isn't a huge $$ set...but what do people think the Ninjago #70727 X-1 Charger will do?

The #70727 looks uninspiring to me.  It's only been out since May and is already on its way out.  I seem them at Target for 30% off and they may go to 50% off.  Demand for them has appeared weak since day one.  This is a very mature theme and the green box 2013 stuff was way over-produced.  The item you're asking about never went out of stock at Amazon during the Christmas holidays, and that's not a good sign.  Could it be a sleeper?  The next Cole's Tread Assault?  I wouldn't bet any money on it. 

Gurooo

Ronyar said:

The early friends sets have done relatively well (stable, vet, horse trailer). I do think there is the possibility that some sets will suffer from being too similar to new sets, but they are being so much more creative with new themes, such as the jungle rescue and pop star upcoming sets, that I think there will be a lot of opportunity to find winners. Especially if some resellers stay biased against mini dolls and don't stock up on them!

Even pop stars need houses, so my guess would be that #3315 will stay popular. I remember thinking about buying another one right away when I built it a couple of years ago. One house is not enough, you need a neigbourhood :)

But I would guess it is more of a playset than a collectible, that could perhaps affect the price?

TheLoneTensor

BACbrix said:

Honetsly, double points isnt a huge help. I mean it is great if you were going to buy the sets from LegoLego.com anyways but still does not seem worth it. Especially when tax takes some out. Idk...

Numbers always work better than anecdotal opinions, so here's a hypothetical model.  For simplification, this doesn't take sales tax, shipping, personal time, gift card discounts or credit card reward points into consideration.  It also assumes that the VIP points (which normally would be cashed in later) are reflected as a straight discount on the original price, equal to $5 per VIPx for every $100.

Set: Tumbler
RRP: $200
Resell for: $400
Personal taxes: 20%

VIP	Paid	Gross	15% fees	Pretax Net	20% Tax	Final Net	% Ret	Diff
0x	$        200	$        400	$          60	$        140	$          28	$        112	56%
1x	$        190	$        400	$          60	$        150	$          30	$        120	63%	+7.2%
2x	$        180	$        400	$          60	$        160	$          32	$        128	71%	+8.0%
3x	$        170	$        400	$          60	$        170	$          34	$        136	80%	+8.9%

Going from 1x to 2x VIP points increases the return on your original investment by 8%, which by itself is better than most investment APRs out there.  Sell it for $600, and your return increases by 11.9%.

I did this quickly, please check my numbers :)

mathew

I'm guessing that roughly 75% of the people buying The Tumbler are resellers. I don't have any numbers to back that up. Just a hunch.

AdeelZubair

You guys are talking about buying more to resell but I still sitting here without a Tumbler...

I will maybe get it this month for double points or wait until Smyths gets it on sale around October.

binaryeye

brickupdate said:

There are too many amazing sets out right now!

Luckily, I have the opposite problem. Maybe it's just the coming-out-of-the-dark-ages afterglow wearing off, but most of the current sets don't appeal to me as builds. There are certainly a lot of sets I'd like to buy for parts, but double VIP isn't nearly a good enough incentive for that.

The only set I'm currently considering is Ewok Village and I'm tempted to wait for May 4th on that. I'd like to wait and see if October brings triple VIP points, but that's a risk probably not worth $12.50.

pharmjod

mathew said:

I'm guessing that roughly 75% of the people buying The Tumbler are resellers. I don't have any numbers to back that up. Just a hunch.

If initial buzz / activity at Brickpicker is any indication, I think you are probably correct. I know it has been discussed, but I do wonder sometimes if that activity from resellers on targeted sets like the Tumbler may have an unintended effect of prolonging the production of the set. If LEGO sees that they are selling out of a set all the time, especially one like the Tumbler, do they just keep producing it until the purchasing tapers off to a more predictable level? Would they otherwise have discontinued a set like that earlier? No clue, just thinking out loud.

Dawn

Adzbadboy said:

You guys are talking about buying more to resell but I still sitting here without a Tumbler...

To be fair this is THE reseller thread...

juddtaylor

The only sets I'm considering right now are the ewok village and *maybe* the tumbler. The tax return may allow me to get both, but I don't think I'd build the tumbler. 

It's scary to me to think about how much everyone assumes it's a sure bet. All this talk is pretty much assuring it gets hoarded heavily.

Personally, I like friends sets as players for my kids, more than most, but I just can't see a collectors market for it. For everything that has retired Lego has put something else out that fills the same role. You can count on not having anything that your non-collector won't be willing to pay more for than Lego's current offerings. Also, the tall bricks they use for the walls have a tendency to split really easy at the base :(

The perfect collector's storm would be if TLG made sure each ideas set had some unique pieces. They do great aftermarket, but they always have to fight the fact that they can be easily bricklinked. I just bricklinked the curiosity rover for like $30. The unique parts would get rid of a lot of the bricklink competition.

pharmjod

@juddtaylor there are a finite number of people that can "hoard excessively" a $200 LEGO set that takes up a fair amount of storage space. I agree that it will likely be widely bought, but relative to the number of current and future Batman fans, that number is probably insignificant. There will probably be a good number of casual resellers that will buy 1 or 2 to try and make a buck off of eventually though. I wouldn't mind having 10 of the set, but I don't see me dropping $2K on it over the next 12 months. 

Farmer_John

mathew said:

I'm guessing that roughly 75% of the people buying The Tumbler are resellers. I don't have any numbers to back that up. Just a hunch.

I would be shocked if it was that high! The members in this thread are a miniscule percentage of people purchasing the Tumber (and other sets). My guess would be resellers make up less than 5% of the Tumbler purchases (if that many). The Tumbler is at an interesting price point ($200 USD)...it is high enough to keep a reseller from stocking to many but low enough that the average person can still afford to pick up a single copy of at RRP.

I do strongly believe that if the Tumbler is EOL'd without notice, it will hit $500 within a few months!

madforLEGO

Any set over 200 USD that is an exclusive and in the US is a gamble IMO. More often than naught you will make your money, but if you get a load of stinkers you will rue the day. At 200 USD, or over, a stinker could be any set not worth at least 2x IMO, 3X is better (as people often forget about Tax and other fees associated with the purchase and selling of a set). For this reason I cannot see putting large amounts of money into a handful of these pricey sets that will also take up an enormous amount of space. Especially when that set seems to be being horded by those who have the storage space to house 25-50 (or more) of them. Remember those people who do that in bulk do not necessarily care about getting the biggest amount, but a set amount they can live with as they are pure business people. So if they clear 50-100 dollars a piece on such a set, they really are happy with that because they have 25-50 to sell. However, that also means the price stays down as they have to deplete their stock before the price rises and may stop any hopes of a huge profit on them quickly for you, mean time they sit and gather dust while you have bills to pay and run out of space.
Im guessing this is going to occur with Death Star and likely Tower Bridge. At least the DS has Star Wars appeal, especially with the new movies coming out.

lordzarak

pharmjod said:

mathew said:

I'm guessing that roughly 75% of the people buying The Tumbler are resellers. I don't have any numbers to back that up. Just a hunch.

If initial buzz / activity at Brickpicker is any indication, I think you are probably correct. I know it has been discussed, but I do wonder sometimes if that activity from resellers on targeted sets like the Tumbler may have an unintended effect of prolonging the production of the set. If LEGO sees that they are selling out of a set all the time, especially one like the Tumbler, do they just keep producing it until the purchasing tapers off to a more predictable level? Would they otherwise have discontinued a set like that earlier? No clue, just thinking out loud.

That's called the Exo-Suit Effect. :)

brickupdate

Consider how many people hoard a modular set such as Fire Brigade, and it still does really well in the aftermarket shortly. This is by no means a rule, but I think for a licensed set such as Tumbler, it has that sort of aftermarket appeal. I suppose the opposite example would be Medieval Market Village, which was out for a long time, heavily hoarded (at a $100 price point), and didn't "pop" in the aftermarket as people hoped. 

That is the fun of this. A licensed set such as Ewok Village will surely do well, as will Tumbler. The questions become: when will it retire, how much will the value increase, and how fast? 

To me, this is why I buy so few sets now. I'd hate to "miss out" on the Simpson's House, Tumbler, Ewok Village, Tower Bridge, Opera House, Death Star, Mini Cooper, Tower of Orthanc, The Mixer and so so so so so many others. I just don't have the room to appreciate them, and have concluded that the time/return in reselling just isn't there for me personally. 

rocao

I don't think it's anywhere near 75%. When they were released, it was available exclusively at LEGO stores with a limit of one. Stores have a reasonably good grasp on who the resellers are, and while there are some that will go unnoticed and maybe even some stores that don't care, I believe there was enough enforcement to prevent a number like 75%.

When tumblers started becoming available online for purchase, I could believe that a lot went to resellers. But it quickly became obvious that enough would be available that the quick flip model wasn't going to yield good results.

Brew

I'm curious and should know this because I've been reading this thread since the beginning but; which sets that have had an RRP at or over $200 have done poorly resale wise?

Pitfall69

Awesome question. I cannot think of one really.

dougts

^ #10212 comes to mind.  It hasn't been a money loser, but it hasn't appreciated nearly as much as one would hope considering the capital tied up in it

#10227 is another example, but that was also available at 50% off to help mitigate the low resale

Farmer_John

^Great question!

The first set that comes to mind for me is the #10227 UCS B-Wing. Also, I'm not expecting the #9398 4x4 Crawler to do too well over time either...

madforLEGO

Brew said:

I'm curious and should know this because I've been reading this thread since the beginning but; which sets that have had an RRP at or over $200 have done poorly resale wise?

Its hard to say, but I think not many have lost money, but it is a case of how much you are clearing selling such a set. 'So Poorly' is a bit subjective.

dougts said:

^ #10212 comes to mind.  It hasn't been a money loser, but it hasn't appreciated nearly as much as one would hope considering the capital tied up in it

#10227 is another example, but that was also available at 50% off to help mitigate the low resale

I would hazard to say that #8110 is a bit of a dog right now. While it is selling for over its RRP, it is not much over RRP and if you take in fees and what not it is not doing great. now, another year, maybe it will.
#41999 is another example I think but is making money, but not as much I think that warrants paying that much for a set to sit one IMO.

Another is #7939, but that is a bit of a cheat as it was on sale a lot during its run and another train is out as well.

TheLoneTensor

You're mincing a bit though, the first statement was regarding $200+ exclusives, now we're kinda talking about anything $150+.

Exclusives $200+ (even $150+) are not what I would define as a gamble.

ReesesPieces

madforLEGO said:

 'So Poorly' is a bit subjective.

Speaking of ... What kind of return on investment would you consider a successful return (percentage wise or actual $).

I am not a reseller but I have sold some Lego on EBay.  After all the fees and shipping costs, I feel like it is a lot of work to put in and I am just curious what you all think.

Thanks in advance.

romanstar

^Thats what i was thinking.Another question i have for resellers is are you buying reduced sets now to sell in a few years?Whats a resellers strategy?Cheers

Chubbles

I don't think there is a single strategy for success besides buying as low as possible and selling as high as possible

madforLEGO

Chubbles said:

I don't think there is a single strategy for success besides buying as low as possible and selling as high as possible

Somewhat correct. There are those that run by a 'code' or if a set gets to X of what the price they paid was, they sell it, end of story. Then you have those that will hold it as long as they can to make as much as they can.

Pitfall69

The only way you can make any money on the UCS B-Wing is if you sold it to someone who came and picked it up or you got them at 50% off. I only bought 2 a 50% off.

I don't mess with Technic for resale because it is a niche theme much like Bionicle. Prices on #41999 have actually fallen a bit. I know one sold for $450 USD not too long ago, but most are selling below $400 USD. I wonder how that guy did that bought everyone's #41999 to corner the market?

As I said in another thread; the UCS Imperial Shuttle was a bit of a disappointment, but there might be a bit left in her once the new movie comes out. Right now I'm flying casual with this set ;)

pharmjod

I just sold my last UCS Shuttle today for $530 w/ free shipping. I'm OK with that. 

Pitfall69

As far as reselling strategy; everyone has their own formula for success. There are also many factors involved to reselling Lego. This has been discussed ad nauseam.

Pitfall69

@pharmjod , if you got it when it was on sale, you did pretty good. Even if you didn't, making $180-90 isn't too shabby.

Chubbles

I would think the new shuttle might have a negative impact on the old one being that people who have wanted a shuttle might satisfy that need with the smaller, cheaper version.  I know that's what I'm doing.

romanstar

How do the resellers keep finding cheap stock?Surely there cant be massive sales all the time?

Farmer_John

^If you're not getting your sets for at least 27% off as a reseller, then you're not allowed to post on this thread.

At least that's what I heard on this thread...  :wink: 

SuperTramp

^They dont.

romanstar

Very rare i see 27% off sets!

pharmjod

@Pitfall69 I got my UCS Shuttle from amazon at the $212 price so yeah, I was happy with the return. Of course, it was literally my last one. I thought about keeping it for myself, but in the end I just didn't have that much attachment to it. I am even selling my last / personal copy of the Imperial Flagship just because I'm to the point where I have too much stuff in my basement and would rather start re-investing the money. I will likely keep one copy of all the current modulars I have (from Fire Brigade up) b/c I have several multiples of them so I am not as bothered by the price increases. Plus, my little girl is starting to get old enough to actually help me and enjoy playing with them so I may start building the modulars soon, just to break the seals. 

hoyatables

I just sold the #10212 UCS Shuttle to someone here on Brickset for $450 shipped.  (Discounted because it was a Bricksetter and allowed me to avoid eBay fees - I refuse to give my money to them.)  I acquired the set from Target for less than $200 shipped during one of their sales and with my Redcard/free shipping discount.  Even after shipping and Paypal's cut, I more than doubled my money.  I'll take that.  

stevemack

I wouldn't can't call #8110 a dog.  I've got a large stash of them, but my price point when I purchased them is now giving me over 100% profit after fees/tax etc on each one! Quite a winner for me! 

Now if I'd have paid RRP that would be a very different story and I'd probably agree with you!

I'm talking from a UK POV though too

Pitfall69

@Chubbles , I see where you are coming from, but if the system scale sets were enough to satisfy the general public; why make UCS sets at all? I don't think one minute that the new Shuttle Tydirium coming out will have negative impact on the Imperial Shuttle. First off, the UCS IS is a very impressive display piece and second, the UCS is not the same shuttle. Shuttle Tydirium was stolen by the Rebels and The UCS Imperial Shuttle transported Luke to Darth Vader.

Pitfall69

The 27% off Exclusives is an inside joke people. Type 27% off exclusives in the search box and you can get caught up ;)

TheLoneTensor

stevemack said:

I wouldn't can't call #8110 a dog.  I've got a large stash of them, but my price point when I purchased them is now giving me over 100% profit after fees/tax etc on each one! Quite a winner for me!

Really, it's a dog.  That you were able to get them for about 50% off doesn't detract from that fact.  It's in parallel with Pitfalls comments about the B-Wing above.

doriansdad

Red discount standing by ;)