Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

novicebuilder101

I started to pick up some sets on clearance and online but I've noticed after reading this thread that that's not a good way to go about getting a good return on your investments. Can you tell me if I should hold on to the following sets, or should I just return them and stick to the exclusive sets, such as modulars? BTW, I'm only investing to supplement my own Lego addiction. This is an expensive hobby so making some extra green on the side can't hurt.

All purchased prices include CA sales tax, which is currently a whopping 9%. Why can't I live in Portland?

60021: CARGO HELIPLANE - $29
60026: TOWN SQUARE - $89
4204: THE MINE - $61
60083: SNOWPLOW TRUCK - $15
70709: GALACTIC TITAN - $67
75052: MOS EISLEY CANTINA - $52
21108: GHOSTBUSTERS ECTO-1 - $46
70725: NINDROID MECHDRAGON - $34

BACbrix

@novicebuilder101 honestly the only two I see worth keeping are the Cantina and Mine.

TheLoneTensor

Before someone answers, you should take a stab yourself and guess which ones will appreciate well, to see how on the mark your current instincts are.

Farmer_John

IDEAS-themed sets always seem to do okay in the aftermarket. Tread lightly with Ninjago. The Catina is interesting. I do like the Mine. The others...meh.

novicebuilder101

TheLoneTensor said:

Before someone answers, you should take a stab yourself and guess which ones will appreciate well, to see how on the mark your current instincts are.

60021: CARGO HELIPLANE - $29 - A very good entry price, and I can bundle this up with the logging truck that I picked up for $11. Maybe both of these can sell for 90 in a year or so?
60026: TOWN SQUARE - $89 - Not a good entry price. Have no idea what this one will go for once retired. I don't see these around much. I need the most help with this one.
4204: THE MINE - $61 - Good entry price, but I see a bunch of these up on Amazon and TRU might sell these for another 6 months. Maybe this can creep up to $130 in a year?
60083: SNOWPLOW TRUCK - $15 - I've read on here that Lego doesn't make snow plows on a regular basis, but the market is currently flooded with this one. I can see this going up to $45 in a couple of years. 
70709: GALACTIC TITAN - $67 - I bought this for myself, so I'll end up building it. I'm a sucker for space themed sets.
75052: MOS EISLEY CANTINA - $52 - This looks like a winner to me. I can see this at $150 a year after EOL.
21108: GHOSTBUSTERS ECTO-1 - $46 - Bought this for myself, but I can see this at $90 a year after EOL
70725: NINDROID MECHDRAGON - $34 - I'll probably return this sucker, but don't Ninjago dragons do pretty well?

Pitfall69

SW Cantina (Although it was on sale for cheaper a few weeks ago) and ECTO-1.

prevere

Farmer_John said:

IDEAS-themed sets always seem to do okay in the aftermarket. Tread lightly with Ninjago. The Catina is interesting. I do like the Mine. The others...meh.

I think the nearly 100% rating the Ideas theme has is going to come to an end when RI and EXO retire.

Chubbles

Ecto-1 especially when the movie comes out and also if the movie is good

Chubbles

I think the mech dragon looks cool but it was as low as twenty bucks, people just weren't buying it

bobabricks

@Farmer_John Ninjago dragons have done okay in the past.

@chubbles In a lot of cases, not a lot store sales means higher after market value.

cloaked7

Hey, that's better than a 30 foot self dug tunnel man cave.  :-)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-tunnel-dug-by-2-men-as-man-cave-police-say-1.2978109

bobabricks

I heard about that on the news this morning as I live in Canada. The first thing I thought about was those creepy Canadian made horror films. XD

juggles7

#60026 Town Square... they've already put out a similar item, right? 

novicebuilder101

juggles7 said:

#60026 Town Square... they've already put out a similar item, right? 

60097: City Square - similar, but different :) This new set is priced at $180 though.

novicebuilder101

Oh, and 60026 Town Square has a BUS. That's a big plus.

Pitfall69

There's something about buses that make a city layout look complete.

1265

^^
Yep, can't have a slum without da bus.

VorpalRyu

@juggles7 yeah, the boxes here don't have a name for it printed on it, so when I wrote that post, I had just been on Google looking for more artwork, according to most sources, in the Old Republic game, its a Republic Defender-Class Corvette, but TLG went with Jedi Defender-class Cruiser for the set...

If TRU in the US still have plenty, might be a bit of a risk, but yet, between Amazon & eBay the set is going for US$90-130 & they seem to be moving...

mathew

If I were serious about investing I would focus on exclusives that are near retirement.  It's hard to judge when a set is going to retire.  The best gauge is to follow Brickpicker and keep an eye on what exclusives are continuously sold out on Amazon and other online retailers.  The real sleeper is Red Five X-Wing.  It's currently sold out everywhere.  It's been down played because it's a retread.  But guess what?  UCS Tie-Figher is right around the corner.  

VorpalRyu

@mathew more interested picking up a few extra, with the end goal, selling the rest so I effectively haven't paid for the two I keep (want one for parts for my MOC), if I get more, awesome extra cash for Lego. According to [email protected], 75025 is retired... But apparently TRU in the US have plenty???

http://shop.lego.com/en-AU/Jedi-Defender-class-Cruiser-75025

Same end goal as with the 60064 Arctic Plane set, grab a few more so I can eventually in effect not paid for one the kids are getting, any cash over that, more Lego money.

rocao

@novicebuilder101 At the prices you listed, I prefer Town Square over The Mine. I still think there are a glut of Mines that were purchased for $30-$50 waiting to be unloaded that will depress prices.

Of the entire list, I think Ecto-1 is the surest bet to double your money. It's at a nice pricing sweet spot where there's plenty of ceiling yet still remains 'affordable' to buyers, and you'll make worthwhile money. The icing on the cake is that it's comparatively easy to store and cheap to ship.

With all that said, there are a lot of sets not on this list that I think are better investments. It really depends whether you want safe vs high risk/high reward, how long you want to hold the inventory, etc

novicebuilder101

@rocao When were Mines selling for $30? That's insane! The Mine will have to sell for $150 for me to turn a decent profit but I'm willing to hold on to some sets for a couple of years.

By the way, what do you think about the newer Minecraft sets (The Farm, Cave, First Night)?

canuhandle23

well tower bridge is on its last legs. Since no more will be shipped to the lego stores that arent the flag ship stores. It should be pretty much gone from lego at the end of the summer time.

madforLEGO

Snowplow truck will likely do well, but has some time to go in terms of being discontinued, then you have to hope LEGO does not do another right away.

#60036 Town square I think is a bit of a sleeper. It is now gone from TRU and LEGO and was a TRU exclusive in the US.
While they were on sale at times for 85-10 dollars (I think 85-90 on BF two years ago) they did not discount them much and they did not suffer the TRU life support syndrome that other sets have in the past. So I think even though the 'new' Town square is coming out, this one should still do OK as they are not identical.

drlmiles1

I'm going to stick my neck out, and make a prediction. I think the new Elves theme is going to do rather well. It is clearly targetted at girls, and I'd expect it to do as well as the popular Friends series with them, but it also has a fantasy setting and strong story line that could draw in boys (with one or two more male characters) and may also appeal to AFOLs because of the fantasy these (the Game of Thrones influence currently - BTW, I'm counting down the days to series 5), and also because of the good parts selection in interesting colours,  and good set designs so far. 
So, I think this might be a long lasting theme, which would push up the value of the first sets released subsequently. 
Of course,  I could be wrong...  :/

fixitbobby

novicebuilder101 said:

@rocao When were Mines selling for $30? That's insane! The Mine will have to sell for $150 for me to turn a decent profit but I'm willing to hold on to some sets for a couple of years.

I picked up a couple Mines from Walmart when they had them in their ad for $35 ( some people claimed it was an error in the ad, but it scanned at that price).  I think some people got them price matched for the same from Target, etc.

pharmjod

I picked up mines at $35 from Wal-Mart too, and subsequently flipped them that Christmas for anywhere between $100-$135. That was easy money. Then proceeded to buy them from Amazon.uk for ~$55ish thinking it would do great once gone... then it never went. I still have some left and made a little on all of them, but TRU killed that one for me. It will do fine long term, I just didn't feel like sitting on a ton of them waiting for TRU. Same with Vampyre castle. 

prevere

drlmiles1 said:

I'm going to stick my neck out, and make a prediction. I think the new Elves theme is going to do rather well. It is clearly targetted at girls, and I'd expect it to do as well as the popular Friends series with them, but it also has a fantasy setting and strong story line that could draw in boys (with one or two more male characters) and may also appeal to AFOLs because of the fantasy these (the Game of Thrones influence currently - BTW, I'm counting down the days to series 5), and also because of the good parts selection in interesting colours,  and good set designs so far. 
So, I think this might be a long lasting theme, which would push up the value of the first sets released subsequently. 
Of course,  I could be wrong...  :/

I can definitely see that too. The first wave of most quality-produced themes, tend to be A) under-produced a little bit; and B) have a slightly shortly production period. Look at the Friends first wave. Half those sets did extremely well at 3x when retired. After that the Friends wave caved in from an investment perspective.

Thanos75

The TRU by me still has a stack of the City Mine sets for $80....

Ronyar

I'm waiting on Cinderella's Castle #41055 to retire, as that seems primed to do well in retirement.  Most expensive Princess set in the first wave (and more expensive than any in the second wave as well), iconic Disney image, relatively few discounts on it over time, and pairs well with the Carriage #41053 if you want to get both and sell them together.  The downside to me is that it is too obvious, so there should be a good number of them hoarded away.  Then again, we've seen with some sets (like FB) that we assume are hoarded in large numbers but they still rise.  Thoughts?

piratemania7

^^One by me has them for about $65 - just can't seem to pull the trigger though...

Farmer_John

^I would probably pick up a Mine for $65, but not much higher than that...

novicebuilder101

^I've been going back and forth about Mine. The only plus I see is that it won't be redone anytime soon. BUT, TRU (both online and in stores) has a grip of these left and I see over 100 of these on Amazon priced at around $90. This seems like a very long term investment.

BACbrix

If I could buy a mine for 65$ I would be pretty satisfied. Yes maybe it will take a year to hit 2x RRP but its an awesome set and a good investment. Now buying multiples...risky. I would buy multiple Minecraft Mines before the city variant.

brickupdate

So what are all of you buying when double VIP points come around?

Pitfall69

Tumbler.

novicebuilder101

@brickupdate This is actually my first time buying with VIP double points as I started buying Lego this January. I've set aside $1000 or so and I'm deciding on these exclusives. I might decide to just double up on the two or three sets that are in danger of getting retired before the next double VIP promo. 

Tumbler

Tower of Orthanc

Pet Shop

Palace Cinema

Slave 1

Red 5 X-Wing

Chubbles

Tumbler, Simpsons, mixer and maybe ewok village, unsure about the village

Pitfall69

I was wondering; do you guys remember a few years ago when Friends came out that everyone was saying Olivia's House was going to be a sure winner? Is there ANY Friends sets that will do very well in the Aftermarket?

cloaked7

Ronyar said:

I'm waiting on Cinderella's Castle #41055 to retire, as that seems primed to do well in retirement.  Most expensive Princess set in the first wave (and more expensive than any in the second wave as well), iconic Disney image, relatively few discounts on it over time, and pairs well with the Carriage #41053 if you want to get both and sell them together.  The downside to me is that it is too obvious, so there should be a good number of them hoarded away.  Then again, we've seen with some sets (like FB) that we assume are hoarded in large numbers but they still rise.  Thoughts?

I like the set too.  I think it's iconic.  I mean, it's at the center of a Disney theme park isn't it?  I don't have daughters, and I'm a male, so I can't judge the set from a female perspective, but I think it will be very popular with girls.   And, once they want Cinderella's Castle and it can't be found I'm sure dad or granddad will pay what's needed to get them that set.

On the flip side.  Not sure when it will be remade, but it probably will be?  And, do girls like LEGOS as much as boys?  I think not.

Pitfall69

In my opinion (having 2 girls) I actually think Elsa's Ice Palace will do better. Frozen is still very popular and they are making another movie, so it will stay relevant for awhile.

BuriedinBricks

Pitfall69 said:

I was wondering; do you guys remember a few years ago when Friends came out that everyone was saying Olivia's House was going to be a sure winner? Is there ANY Friends sets that will do very well in the Aftermarket?

I have Olivia's House and the Dolphin Cruiser pulled back for my daughter, once she starts showing a stronger interest in LEGO. If that doesn't happen, those would be my picks to do the best out of the early waves anyway, so I have no trouble hanging on to them for a bit. Both have actually done OK while in production, and I can remember seeing them going for above RRP around holiday periods.

cloaked7

Pitfall69 said:

In my opinion (having 2 girls) I actually think Elsa's Ice Palace will do better. Frozen is still very popular and they are making another movie, so it will stay relevant for awhile.

Excellent point.  You have a perspective I don't have.  But, given the huge popularity of everything Frozen you're probably right.  I just checked the set.  It has both sisters and Olaf.  

cloaked7

Speaking of movies, a new Cinderella movie is just weeks away.  I assume the LEGO set will be produced while the movie is showing.  If so, that would most likely give the set a boost.

brickupdate

Pitfall69novicebuilder101Chubbles for the thoughts on double point purchases! 

I'm thinking along the same lines, my list of wants:
Tumbler
Death Star
Mixer
Simpsons

There are too many amazing sets out right now! I'm actually going to be near a no-tax LEGO Store prior to double points, so I'll likely make my purchases then. Also: that makes it more likely that a bigger set such as Tumbler will be in stock. 

novicebuilder101

Regarding the Frozen Castle, is the Ideas version officially dead? 41062 is rather lacking with 292 pieces.

samiam391

Pardon my 100% ignorance in the following post....

I never buy anything from LEGO.com as I typically either moc or stick with figures, but I am a VIP member. I was considering buying the helicarrier. If I purchased it during double VIP, what does that get me?

Pitfall69

It gets you double points toward your next purchase, but they won't do you any good if you never buy from there.

brickupdate

samiam391  So basically, you get $35 in rewards to use on the NEXT purchase, if you are buying the Helicarrier.

brickupdate

It's interesting to consider the value of a few specific pieces of Tumbler, going generally by current low Bricklink prices:

Batman minifig: $20
Joker: $30
Two sticker Sheets ($10 each) $20
New tires ($10 each) $20
Instructions $10

So right there, in a current production set, that is $100 worth of aftermarket value with 1845 other parts for the remaining $100 worth of the price, about 5.5 cents each. The tires may be used on other sets, but likely the minifigs, manual, and sticker sheets will always be exclusive. 

Too obsessive? 
:)