Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

CCC

For UK [email protected] exosuit has gone "out of stock, shipping 6 March". It seems a bit late given they are being decommissioned in February. I wonder if making it OOS is a ruse to get the last ones sold.

Ma1234

Farmer_John said:

The only real data point we have to go on for the UCS Tumbler is the UCS Batmobile #7784, which was available for about 2 1/2 months...and the Batmobile is more iconic than the Tumbler. I fully expect the Tumbler to be out less than a year. Orders for the Tumbler are going through "customer service" to ensure a fair distribution and spread the love around. The fact that Lego forced buyers into a store to purchase the Tumbler for the last 3-4 months of 2014 and [email protected] is still limiting the distribution of the Tumbler to one per customer speaks volumes to me. It's also doubtful the Tumbler will ever be featured in another Batman movie. All of this doesn't bode will for longevity...

7784 was available for well over two and a half months. It was available for so long it could frequently be seen on sale at official LEGO stores for 30-50% off. 

CCC

Plus it was almost ten years ago. It is a very different world to ten years ago.

JP3804

@hoyatables I just ship one from Chicago to San Diego with UPS it was $31.39 insured with signature to Atlanta it was $24.96

Pitfall69

Yeah, I don't think you can really compare any current set to sets that were available 10 years ago.

hoyatables

Thanks for the responses everyone!!

juggles7

CCC said:

For UK [email protected] exosuit has gone "out of stock, shipping 6 March". It seems a bit late given they are being decommissioned in February. I wonder if making it OOS is a ruse to get the last ones sold.

Of course it is.  Just like their applying the "retiring soon" label only to sets that are over-produced that they want to clear out. 

piratemania7

Does anyone know what page talk about the DS started on? I mean, I could spend tonight looking through the thread, but thought id ask first.

prevere

Farmer_John said:

Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.

Love you Farmer_John, but you said it first. (page 1)

piratemania7

^wow

Pitfall69

I was able to pick up some Joker Steamrollers on clearance today. I don't think it was a good seller, but it might have some potential because of Batgirl. What are everyone's thoughts?

rocao

Farmer_John said:

SW Republican Dropship

Cue photoshop...

Brickarmor

@pitfall69 Minifigs in the set are great, but I skipped a ton half off Steamrollers. Not enough usable parts, and I already have oodles of those awful purple and orange wheels.

Pitfall69

^That's what I was thinking, so I only bought a few. I like The Sentinel to do better, but you never know. I couldn't find any in my neck of the woods.

goshe7

Pitfall69 said:

^That's what I was thinking, so I only bought a few. I like The Sentinel to do better, but you never know. I couldn't find any in my neck of the woods.

Shhhh...  Let's keep everyone focused on the Steamroller please.  50% off.  Those unique variants of the minifigs will make it very desirable.  Add in Jokerland and you have a slam dunk winner as getting both of these corresponding sets will be a must have.  Don't worry that every Target I've been to lately has a minimum of 10 copies of it sitting after a week of 30% clearance.

For grins, replace "Steamroller" with "Funhouse".  That is why I am not remotely interested until 70% off.

The Sentinel...  Perception of being overpriced ($/part count).  I don't recall a ton of great sales on it beyond some deals at TRU when first released.  It has generally disappeared around me without much clearance pricing at all.  So yes, I strongly agree that the Sentinel's prospects are better.

canuhandle23

I think the steam roller will be a 70 to 90 dollar set. WHich is great if you buy at the 25 dollar price tag and buy many copies. I personally dont think we will see Batman's son and batgirl in many sets. Those minifigs alone plus the fact the steam roller actually looks semi decent will help.

BuriedinBricks

I like the staemroller, but I would put my money on the X-Men set.

Pitfall69

The crazy thing is that I am not much of a Superhero guy. I don't read comics either, that is why I asked :) All I know are most of the big ones, but I don't know a lot of the story lines.

BuriedinBricks

The steamroller has good figs, but the set itself is lackluster.. The X-Men blackbird is actually pretty good, but I felt the set was overpriced at RRP. I still think it is the safer bet though. Cyclops and Storm are less likely to see a redo soon than just Batgirl. I see Batman, Joker, and Robin (in some form) being constantly available.

Note: I personally like the Steamroller, but I always bet on Marvel. It seems like there are a ton more copies of the DC set floating around, based on my informal survey of local Targets.

CCC

iso3200 said:

Exosuit finishing this month.

They have sent emails today, saying "The hugely popular LEGO® Ideas Exo Suit will be retiring soon!". Obviously not quite popular enough though.

Farmer_John

juggles7 said:

Farmer_John, what is an example of a set that whose retirement was known in advance?  You mentioned TH in one of your posts, but I don't think that's what you meant, since it caught everyone by surprise.  I don't know of any, unless you're referring to Jabba's Palace or the Exo Suit.  And are you saying that the announcement about the EXO about to retire is a sign of things to come? 

The sets I had in mind were those you mentioned (Jabba and Exo). The TH was an example for a set that completely surprised everybody including me (although I already had it).

For your second question...yes. If Lego announces retirements ahead of time (based on a date), then I think it will knock down the short-term resale prices for desirable Lego sets. For example if Lego said today that the UCS Tumbler will be gone in two months, those on the fence would have ample opportunity to make a decision whether or not to get this set. Because of this, the short-term demand for recently EOL'd sets should be reduced.

Farmer_John

Ma1234 said:

Farmer_John said:

The only real data point we have to go on for the UCS Tumbler is the UCS Batmobile #7784, which was available for about 2 1/2 months...and the Batmobile is more iconic than the Tumbler. I fully expect the Tumbler to be out less than a year. Orders for the Tumbler are going through "customer service" to ensure a fair distribution and spread the love around. The fact that Lego forced buyers into a store to purchase the Tumbler for the last 3-4 months of 2014 and [email protected] is still limiting the distribution of the Tumbler to one per customer speaks volumes to me. It's also doubtful the Tumbler will ever be featured in another Batman movie. All of this doesn't bode will for longevity...

7784 was available for well over two and a half months. It was available for so long it could frequently be seen on sale at official LEGO stores for 30-50% off. 

I was going of the availability data from the Brickset database. I assume the numbers in the Brickset database are "official," so that's what I use.

Farmer_John

prevere said:

Farmer_John said:

Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.

Love you Farmer_John, but you said it first. (page 1)

Yikes!

If I keep repeating it often enough, I'm bound to be right someday. Well...perhaps not regarding the DS.

cloaked7

CCC said:

iso3200 said:

Exosuit finishing this month.

They have sent emails today, saying "The hugely popular LEGO® Ideas Exo Suit will be retiring soon!". Obviously not quite popular enough though.

Yup, it is unfortunate that LEGO has absolutely no consistency in their use of product status.  Unless, by 'consistent' you mean - they consistently use the 'retiring soon' on products that they have an overstock of.

brickupdate

I hadn't really looked closely at the Tumbler until the other day when I was at a LEGO Store. It was more impressive than I thought, and with the exclusive figs, limited availability, and the fact that we are about to see (another) relaunch of the Batman movie brand that will not have a Tumblr in it, I have to agree: this set likely won't be out all that long. To me, regardless of whether it is iconic, it will do well in the aftermarket. What a cool set! And let's face it, Heath Ledger as the Joker IS iconic, and that being the only minifig of him -- this alone -- will drive aftermarket prices through the roof. Of course, IMHO. :) 

prevere

Farmer_John said:

prevere said:

Farmer_John said:

Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.

Love you Farmer_John, but you said it first. (page 1)

Yikes!

If I keep repeating it often enough, I'm bound to be right someday. Well...perhaps not regarding the DS.

Apparently there's also a rumor the next modular will be a Town Hall. Another page 1 gem.

AdeelZubair

prevere said:

Farmer_John said:

prevere said:

Farmer_John said:

Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.

Love you Farmer_John, but you said it first. (page 1)

Yikes!

If I keep repeating it often enough, I'm bound to be right someday. Well...perhaps not regarding the DS.

Apparently there's also a rumor the next modular will be a Town Hall. Another page 1 gem.

What! First the Winter Village Toy Shop now this!

Pitfall69

I am finding it very annoying that people have to create new threads to ask a question about retiring sets and their aftermarket prices. Yes, there is a lot of information in this thread, but all one has to do is perform a simple search or just ask the question in this thread. I have even used Google to perform a search and at times it directs me to this forum.

I do love going back in time within this thread :)

stevemack

Lol, snap! Seeing how wrong all the predictions are!

brickupdate

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

2. Death Star not in stock at the last 2 or 3 LEGO Stores I visited. With The Force Awakens coming up, I am getting a feeling that maybe, just maybe, this set will... Oh, I can't bring myself to say it. 

rocao

Pitfall69 said:

I am finding it very annoying that people have choose to create new threads to ask a question about retiring sets and their aftermarket prices. 

fixed your post

Dad

Seriously though, regarding the DS, I'm beginning to think that the DS has pi%%ed us all off that much that it might actually have come full circle once it finally does EOL and increase pretty rapidly on the aftermarket. Fact being we've all offloaded them and reinvested because we're convinced it's 'never' retiring. Those who stocked up heavily had way to much money tied up to just let it sit there. I had 18 of these at one point and now have 4.

I never lost faith in the FB and kept buying until the end. But that was a no brainer due to the price point. Also these were on sale at £70 in the UK. If anyone who resells doesn't think there's money in £70 modulars then they've either got rocks in their head or they're smoking them.

But the DS will probably be on sale sometime soon in the UK at 20% off. And that then becomes a bit of a dilemma. They were on sale last year too. But they sat there. Yet the SSD were cleared out first day at 20% off.

I know that people don't always want to show their hand and I can understand that. But is there anyone who still believes in this set regarding aftermarket price and is investing in them accordingly or have most just done what I've done and offloaded the majority but kept a few 'just in case' ?

cloaked7

brickupdate said:

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

The set doesn't appear to be hard to find.  Yet! :-)  Maybe they don't get them in the stores?  Or, in small quantities when they do?  I've already picked Birds to be a set that will do well.  After reading your comment I took a quick look at eBay and the set is already selling above RRP.  Which doesn't make a lot of sense, since the set is still available at LEGO.com.  Another interesting aspect, eBay sellers are selling the individual birds.  For about $25 each.

Dad

^ It's a good indicator. Any set that consistently sells for rrp or thereabouts on ebay whilst in production tends to do well post eol. #21103 did this right the way through.  

Pitfall69

I lost faith in FB initially, but I decided to ho down with the ship so to speak and it seems I made the right decision. I'm also glad that I checked the seals to make sure I didn't get the batch with the missing bags. What happens when you sell a retired set to someone and they open it to find missing bags or parts?

The DS may very well surprise us all, but I'm not willing to take that chance. It is a dated set. We don't get discounts on Exclusives in the US, so I'm not willing to tie up $400+tax on a set that may or may not retire soon or do well in the Aftermarket.

madforLEGO

brickupdate said:

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

2. Death Star not in stock at the last 2 or 3 LEGO Stores I visited. With The Force Awakens coming up, I am getting a feeling that maybe, just maybe, this set will... Oh, I can't bring myself to say it. 

The LEGO store I frequent had plenty of them on the shelf; same with the local LDC.. Maybe because they do not poop (like #31031) :-p

cloaked7 said:

brickupdate said:

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

The set doesn't appear to be hard to find.  Yet! :-)  Maybe they don't get them in the stores?  Or, in small quantities when they do?  I've already picked Birds to be a set that will do well.  After reading your comment I took a quick look at eBay and the set is already selling above RRP.  Which doesn't make a lot of sense, since the set is still available at LEGO.com.  Another interesting aspect, eBay sellers are selling the individual birds.  For about $25 each.

Well at 45 dollars total for the set, There is money to be made I guess, just not a lot after all taxes, fees, and everything, and I just marvel at people who go to great lengths to make what amounts to very little compare in relation to the time spent.

Pitfall69 said:

I lost faith in FB initially, but I decided to ho down with the ship so to speak and it seems I made the right decision. I'm also glad that I checked the seals to make sure I didn't get the batch with the missing bags. What happens when you sell a retired set to someone and they open it to find missing bags or parts?

The DS may very well surprise us all, but I'm not willing to take that chance. It is a dated set. We don't get discounts on Exclusives in the US, so I'm not willing to tie up $400+tax on a set that may or may not retire soon or do well in the Aftermarket.

Last I checked a Death Star is still a Death Star. If LEGO EOLs it and they do not immediately put out another it will likely rise and rise even with those that will stock up on them. In this case, to 'stock up' on them means you are piling a LOT of income into a large cardboard box with a lot of plastic, so I would imagine that while there will be those with the designated warehouse or storage area, for these it will be fewer and father in between than those stacking Pet shops for example. Even those who can pile that kind of money and space into a set likely are going to flip them quickly to not have to keep all that space taken up and money tied up. But all of that is just a guess.

Farmer_John

The thing I like about the DS is that it's an iconic Lego set, and that in itself will definitely drive value when it is EOL'd. If there was a time capsule for classic Lego sets, the DS would be in it. Nothing fancy about the minifigs, but they are quintessential Lego. And my kids have just as much fun with the older minifigs as they do with the new ones. In fact, more fun since the older minifigs have more memories for them...and they always go back to the oldies.

One of the earliest Lego sets my son received was Anakin's Jed Starfighter #7669 and he wore it out. We had to contact Lego to get a new body for Anakin because his hand no longer stayed in (due to repeatedly losing it in lightsaber fights with Darth Vader). I'm sure the same is true for many whole purchased the DS. And the broader the customer base is for a certain set (e.g., the Death Star), the greater appeal it will have for people after it's EOL'd (especially those coming out of their dark ages).

matticus_bricks

Pitfall69 said:

but I decided to ho down with the ship

Great, now I'm picturing JarJar dancing with an anthropomorphic boat.

cloaked7

madforLEGO said:

brickupdate said:

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

2. Death Star not in stock at the last 2 or 3 LEGO Stores I visited. With The Force Awakens coming up, I am getting a feeling that maybe, just maybe, this set will... Oh, I can't bring myself to say it. 

The LEGO store I frequent had plenty of them on the shelf; same with the local LDC.. Maybe because they do not poop (like #31031) :-p

cloaked7 said:

brickupdate said:

Two observations from recent trips to the LEGO Store:

1. I returned a Birds set, and all the LEGO employees freaked out because they wanted it, and couldn't believe I was returning it. Has this set been hard to find?

The set doesn't appear to be hard to find.  Yet! :-)  Maybe they don't get them in the stores?  Or, in small quantities when they do?  I've already picked Birds to be a set that will do well.  After reading your comment I took a quick look at eBay and the set is already selling above RRP.  Which doesn't make a lot of sense, since the set is still available at LEGO.com.  Another interesting aspect, eBay sellers are selling the individual birds.  For about $25 each.

Well at 45 dollars total for the set, There is money to be made I guess, just not a lot after all taxes, fees, and everything, and I just marvel at people who go to great lengths to make what amounts to very little compare in relation to the time spent.

cloaked7

(oops, something happened during my editing.)

I agree.  Not much profit to be had after eBay fees, etc.  If I were reselling the set I would wait until it retired, then only sell when the price hit at least $100.00, which BTW will probably happen the Christmas after the Birds set retires.  Just something about that $99.99 mark that will include buyers that would not bite at $100.00, $110.00, $125.00, etc.  I think it has been proven that there are certain ceilings a price has to break thru before it will go a step higher, if you know what I mean.  It applies to stocks, and probably LEGOS too.

piratemania7

I'm surprised chatter about the PS has died down around here. A good friend of mine brought up a good point the other day. Buy one a month until it retires.

At this point that may not be a bad idea...

BACbrix

Pet Shop? Or purple strawberries?

piratemania7

^Pet Shop

BACbrix

Thought so

piratemania7

My thoughts are on a mid fall discontinuation of PS. I think stock will continue to sell down considering the chatter surrounding this set and eventually the last run will be gone.

Mid-October.

TheLoneTensor

BACbrix said:

Pet Shop? Or purple strawberries?

FYI, things like this are neither funny, nor endearing.

Pitfall69

matticus_bricks said:

but I decided to ho down with the ship

Great, now I'm picturing JarJar dancing with an anthropomorphic boat.

Well, not my funniest typo, but it was very testicles of you to point it out ;)

piratemania7

^may have to take you to the PP for that!

BACbrix

@TheLoneTensor lighten up geez people. It was a reference to Cleveland Show

madforLEGO

Is anyone else noticing that Amazon.com US is starting to look like Walmart with constant price changes in the  5 to 50 cent range instead of seeing any substantial price drops?